ECB Warns of `Herd-Like' Mentality in Derivatives
Sales of CDOs jumped 73 percent to $446 billion this year from a year earlier, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. The market for credit derivatives is the fastest-growing part of the derivatives market, helping to spur record earnings for banks including New York-based Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Economic growth will slow and inflation will ease in 2007, with energy prices and a falling dollar posing the biggest risks to a pick-up in prices, a panel of Wall Street analysts forecast on Monday.
  
  

• The U.S. Census Bureau said that wholesale sales were down 0.5% in October while inventories were up 0.8%.
  
  
  

• China posted a trade surplus of 22.92 bln $ in November, down slightly from 23.83 bln in October, customs data showed. The trade surplus in the first 11 months was 156.52 bln $, up from 91 bln YoY.
  
  

• China's consumer price index rose 1.3 pct YoY, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
  
  
  

• Major oil-exporting countries have been moving away from dollar deposits to increase reserves in other currencies, including the Euro and the Japanese yen, the Bank for International Settlements has said. Dollar-denominated bank deposits by OPEC members decreased by 5.3 bln $ in the second quarter of 2006, while Euro-denominated deposits rose by 2.8 bln $ and yen deposits by 3.8 bln $.
  
  

• The National Association of Realtors expects U.S. existing home sales down 8.6% in 2006 and down 1.0% in 2007.
  
  

• Japanese Consumer Confidence for November out at 48.9 vs. 48.8 expected.
  

• French Industrial Production MoM for October out at -0.1% vs. 0.5% expected.
  

• Mexican stocks rose to an eighth straight record close on Monday
  
  

• Cocoa stocks in Nybot warehouses fell 3,978 145-pound bags to total 3.808 million bags.
  
  
  
  
  

• The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was unchanged at 935 million bushels.
  Soybeans were unchanged at 565 million bushels.
  Wheat was increased from 418 to 438 million bushels.
  Sugar was increased from 1.87 to 1.98 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 6.0 to 6.3 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was increased from 90 to 93 million tons.
  Soybeans were increased from 55.2 to 55.7 million tons.
  Wheat was increased from 119 to 121 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 51.0 to 51.5 million bales.
  

• The USDA increased its estimate of the Florida orange crop from 135 to 140 million boxes with a projected yield of 1.58 gallons a box at 42.0 degrees Brix.
  

• The Florida Department of Citrus said YoY inventories of frozen concentrated orange juice were down 40%.
  

From Reuters, Automatic Trading Linked to News Events Today, the Reuters Group begins selling two trading services that allow subscribers to set up automatic trading orders based on the news. They will give subscribers the ability to mine past and present Reuters news articles in real time and automatically buy, sell or hold a stock based on market-moving events.

Updates will resume December 10.

Farm Animals More Damaging To Climate Than Cars
It generates 65 percent of human-caused nitrous oxide, a gas that is 296 times more effective at trapping solar heat than carbon dioxide (CO2), the biggest greenhouse-gas by volume. Most of this pollution comes from manure.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up 0.4% in October and consumer spending was up 0.2%.
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 34,000 last week to 357,000, more than expected.
  

• The Chicago purchasing managers' index dropped from 53.5 to 49.9 in November, weaker than expected.
  

• Retail sales in Australia were up 0.8% in October.
  

• Canada's real GDP was up 0.4% QoQ and up 2.5% YoY.
  

• Real GDP in the EU-12 was up 0.5% QoQ and up 2.7% YoY.
  

• Real GDP in India was up 9.2% YoY
  

• U.S. Cotton mill use declined from an annual rate of 5.2 to 5.1 million bales in October.
  

Quick Overview

• QoQ U.S. GDP was up 2.2%, and up 3.0% YoY. Nominal GDP was up 6.0% YoY.
  

• Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said he expects moderate economic growth with lower inflation. The one risk of higher inflation, he warned, might come from tight labor supplies.
  

• The Federal Reserve's Beige Book said that most districts reported "continued moderate growth since the last report" and increased consumer spending.
  

• U.S. New home sales were at an annual rate of 1.004 million units in October, down 3.2% from September's pace and less than expected. YoY new home sales are down 18%.
  

• Brazil's central bank lowered its benchmark lending rate to 13.25% from 13.75%
  

• Japan's industrial production increased 1.6% in October, more than expected and a new record high.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were down 300,000 barrels to 340.8 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 600,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were down 1.1 million barrels.
  
  
  

What Will You Do When the Government Demands Your Laptop?
Thanks to a decision from the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals, U.S. Customs officials can now seize and copy the contents of any laptop carried across a U.S. border. There's no arrest, warrant or probable cause required-just a "gimme."

Quick Overview

• The OECD today cut its forecast for 2007 OECD-country GDP growth to +2.5% from +3.2% in 2006, which would be the weakest level since 2003.
  
  

• Durable goods orders posted their biggest decline since July 2000, falling 8.7% in October. Excluding transport, orders were down 1.7%
  
  

• U.S. Consumer confidence fell to 102.9 in November from a revised 105.1 last month, the New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday.
  
  

• The confidence of American consumers rose in the latest week to match its 2006 high and best since April 2002, just in time for the beginning of the holiday season, ABC News and The Washington Post said on Tuesday.
  
  

• The National Association of Realtors said U.S. existing home sales were at an annual rate of 6.24 million units in October, better than expected and up 0.5% from September's pace. The 3.85 million homes for sale in October represented a 7.4 month supply, the most in 13 years.
  

• The U.S. economy is not yet facing a generalized economic slowdown, despite cooling in the housing and automobile sectors, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist said on Tuesday.
  

• Retail sales in Japan were down 0.2% in October, more than expected.
  

Carbon emissions show sharp rise From 2000 to 2005, the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions was more than 2.5% per year, whereas in the 1990s it was less than 1% per year,"

On the Move to Outrun Climate Change
As the Bush administration debates much of the world about what to do about global warming, butterflies and ski-lift operators, polar bears and hydroelectric planners are on the move.
..Wild species don't care who is in the White House," Parmesan said. "It is very obvious they are desperately trying to move to respond to the changing climate. ..

Quick Overview

• Wall Street had its worst day in more than four months as the dollar weakened and concerns about the strength of the retail industry arose following a sales decline at Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
  
  

• A think tank at Beijing-based China Renmin University estimates China's gross domestic product to grow a little slower rate of about 9.25% in 2007 from a projected 10.48% this year.
  
  

• Rumors persist the IMF may sell part of its massive 3,217 ton Gold reserve valued at $65B to cover losses it projects for the next two years.
  
  

• Bank of Japan Governor Fukui said that he wants to gradually raise Japan's interest rate, but does not want to interfere with the economy's recovery.
  

Will Democrats Turn Blind Eye to Civil Liberty?
The Bush regime was a coup d’etat against the Bill of Rights and the jurisdictions of Congress and the courts. Unless Democrats roll back this coup, Americans have seen the last of their civil liberties.

Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment dropped from 93.6 to 92.1 in November, more than expected.
  

• The U.S. jobless claims were up 12,000 last week to 321,000.
  

• YoY Canada's consumer price index was up 0.9%.
  

• Industrial orders in the EU-12 were down 1.3% in September.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 5.1 million barrels to 341.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 1.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of heating oil were down 100,000 barrels.

Dollar May Fall a Second Day as Traders Add to Bets on Rate Cut
``Rising market perception rates will be cut in the U.S. could be enough to get the dollar snowballing lower.''

Quick Overview

• There is talk that OPEC may reduce production when they next meet on December 14th.
  
  

• Federal Reserve officials agree the U.S. labor force has entered a slower-growth phase, but they have yet to reach consensus on what pace of job growth is consistent with a noinflationary expansion.
  

• French GDP for Q3 was unchanged QoQ and up 1.8% YoY.
  

• Canada's composite index of leading indicators was up 0.2% MoM
  

• Retail sales volume in the U.K. was up 0.6% QoQ
  

• Argentina's trade surplus for October rose 11% YoY.
  

• Hong Kong's real GDP rose 6.8% in Q3.
  

• The USDA said that world sugar production will be 155.2 million tons in 2006-2007, up 7% YoY. World ending stocks will increase 4.2 million tons to 33.2 million tons -- 22% stock to use. The second lowest stocks to use ratio in nine years.
  

• The USDA said there were 714 billion pounds of frozen orange juice concentrate in storage on October 31, down 37% YoY.
  

• The minutes from the latest Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting show the bank plans to raise rates gradually to keep pace with inflation and growth.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 466.7 million pounds of frozen pork in storage on October 31, up 4.5% YoY. Bellies totaled 16.6 million pounds, up 5.6% YoY
  

China set to be biggest Malaysian cocoa buyer
The current per capita consumption of chocolate in China is only 26g, far below the world's average of 500g. In the European Union, where chocolate is a popular snack food, about 12kg of chocolate is consumed by a person yearly.

Will there be enough corn? "There is a collision course on the horizon, but when and how severe it is going to be, I don't know," said Doug Thompson, a corn and soybean grower near Kanawha, in north-central Iowa.

Quick Overview

• In Sydney Australia over the weekend, central bankers from the G-20 summit said central banks "will need" to raise rates to contain inflation.
  
  

• The Conference Board said Monday its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.2% in October, with six of the ten indicators showing a positive gain, after a revised gain of 0.4% a month earlier.
  
  

• State and local governments are experimenting with new ways of generating funds for highway work as gasoline taxes fail to produce enough revenue for such projects, the USA Today reported.
  
  

• German producer prices rose 0.3% in October and up 4.6% YoY

• Canada's wholesale sales totaled C$41.8 billion in September, down 1.6% from August.
  

• The USDA estimated Brazil's current coffee crop at 46.5 million bags, up 29% YoY.

Updates will resume November 18th.

Quick Overview

• The current economic downturn is "likely temporary," former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Monday, noting the worst of the housing market slump is likely past.
  
  

• CNBC reported that of the 407 S&P 500 companies that have reported third quarter results, 73% have been above expectations.
  

• Factory orders in Germany were down 2.5% in September, more than expected.
  

• Dow-Jones Newswire said Indonesia’s 2006 cocoa crop may only total 425,000 tons, down from 500,000 tons YoY.
  

GOP Must Go
The American Conservative

There may be little Americans can do to atone for this presidency, which will stain our country’s reputation for a long time. But the process of recovering our good name must begin somewhere, and the logical place is in the voting booth this Nov. 7. If we are fortunate, we can produce a result that is seen—in Washington, in Peoria, and in world capitals from Prague to Kuala Lumpur—as a repudiation of George W. Bush and the war of aggression he launched against Iraq.

White House slammed for Iraq nuke website
"It's sheer stupidity. Plus it's illegal. We violated our own treaty obligations in letting this out. This is clearly what is called RD--restricted data. This should not have been out there. It's highly dangerous, it's very useful--even like Iran, which is meeting some of the same technical challenges Iraq met in the Eighties. It should not have been out there. I'm absolutely convinced, and most people don't remember. But we went through this again in the spring. In the spring Congresman (Peter) Hoestra announced with (Sen.) Rick Santorum that we had found WMD in iraq. It was old mustard shells from the 1980s. They're desperate to prove a case."

Quick Overview

• U.S. companies added 92,000 workers in October, pushing the unemployment rate down to a five-year low of 4.4%.
  
  

• Canada's unemployment rate improved from 6.4% to 6.2% in October.
  

• The unemployment rate in the EU-12 remained unchanged at 7.8% in September.
  
  

• UK service index increased from 57.0 to 59.3 in October, morer than expected.
  

• China's central bank raised the required bank reserve ratio to 9.0% from 8.5%.

Only 50 years left' for sea fish There will be virtually nothing left to fish from the seas by the middle of the century if current trends continue, according to a major scientific study.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Labor Department said that productivity was unchanged in the third quarter while labor costs were up 5.3% from a year ago.

• U.S. Factory orders were up 2.1% in September, less than expected.
  

• The Labor Department said that U.S. jobless claims were up 18,000 to 327,000.
  

• Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui reiterated on Thursday that the central bank will adjust rates slowly, giving few clues on the timing of its next rise.
  

• Retail sales in Australia were up 0.1% in September.
  

• Manufacturing in Europe increased from 56.6 to 57.0.

• The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.25%,

• FC Stone estimates the U.S. corn crop at 10.808 billion bushels, and Informa Economics predicted the crop at 10.729 billion bushels. This compares with the USDA’s October estimate of 10.905 billion bushels.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 9 billion cubic feet last week to 3.452 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are up 9% YoY.
  

• Total money market assets stood at $2.265 trillion for the week, the Investment Company Institute said.

U.S. NEAR THE BOTTOM IN PRIVACY STUDY


Leading surveillance societies in the EU and the World

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of U.S. manufacturing dropped from 52.9 to 51.2 in October, weaker than expected.
  

• YoY U.S. Construction spending was up 2.9%
  

• Canada's Finance Minister said that he wants to begin taxing income-trust funds next year.
  

• Manufacturing in the U.K. dropped from 54.5 to 53.7 in October.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that::
  Supplies of crude oil were up 2.0 million barrels last week to 334.3 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 2.8 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were down 1.5 million barrels
  

• U.S. Ethanol production totaled 329,000 barrels a day in August, up 69,000 barrels YoY. Demand was 385,000 barrels a day.
  
  
  

Bond bear Grant sees threat to asset-backed bonds Instead of worrying about an instrument's yield, fixed-income portfolio managers should worry if they are going to get paid, Grant said in a keynote presentation.

Low inflation rate? Some consumers beg to differ Sean Taylor, 34, an information technology consultant in Trenton, N.J., ticks off the changes in his bills in the past nine years: property taxes, now $9,000 a year, up 105%; heating oil, $238, up 109%. His wife, Carrie, a state employee, pays $87 a month for health care; nine years ago, it was free. His income varies from year to year. Her salary is $75,000, up from $45,000, or 67%.

Baghdad is under siege
Sunni insurgents have cut the roads linking the city to the rest of Iraq. The country is being partitioned as militiamen fight bloody battles for control of towns and villages north and south of the capital.
As American and British political leaders argue over responsibility for the crisis in Iraq, the country has taken another lurch towards disintegration.

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago’s manufacturing index dropped from 62.1 to 53.5 in October, more than expected.
  
  

• U.S. Consumer confidence fell from 105.9 to 105.4 in October following an increase in September, the New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday.
  
  

• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the employment cost index increased 1.0% in the third quarter and 3.3% from a year ago, the biggest gain in two years.
  

• Brazil announced that they will raise the ethanol content of their gasoline from 20% to 23%, starting on November 20th.
  
  

• Canada’s GDP was up 0.3% in August and up 2.2% YoY.
  
  

• A hard-hitting report on climate change published by the British government on Monday has no basis in science or economics, OPEC's Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said.
  
  

• Russia's state foreign debt, including former Soviet-era debt, shrunk to $50.1 billion, or 39.5 billion Euros as of October 1.

Bond Strategists: Japan's Insurers May Shun U.S. Treasuries
(Bloomberg) -- Japanese life insurers, who manage the equivalent of $1.6 trillion in assets, will cut holdings of U.S. Treasuries after the cost of protecting the investment against currency swings surged, according to Calyon Securities.
A reduction in purchases by Japanese investors, the largest overseas holders of U.S. sovereign debt, may push up U.S. Treasury yields, said Susumu Kato, chief strategist at Calyon. Japan held $644.2 billion of Treasuries at the end of August, more than in any other country.

Quick Overview

• China will likely see its trade surplus hit 150 bln $ for 2006, with foreign exchange reserves to exceed one trillion $ by the end of the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
  
  
  

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that personal incomes were up 0.5% in September, and consumer spending was up 0.1%.
  

• The Commerce Department said the core rate of personal consumption was up 2.4% YoY
  
  

Climate change 'brings huge cost'
Climate change could cut global growth by a fifth, costing up to £3.68 trillion in total, unless drastic action is taken, a review is to warn.
But taking action now would cost just 1% of global gross domestic product, economist Sir Nicholas Stern says.

GAO chief warns economic disaster looms
Their basic message is this: If the United States government conducts business as usual over the next few decades, a national debt that is already $8.5 trillion could reach $46 trillion or more, adjusted for inflation. That's almost as much as the total net worth of every person in America — Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and those Google guys included.
A hole that big could paralyze the U.S. economy; according to some projections, just the interest payments on a debt that big would be as much as all the taxes the government collects today.
And every year that nothing is done about it, Walker says, the problem grows by $2 trillion to $3 trillion.

Morgan Stanley, announced a $3bn plan to invest in carbon trading
The drive to tackle climate change gathered pace on Thursday as Morgan Stanley, the investment bank, announced a $3bn plan to invest in the carbon trading market amid mounting evidence that some US states are growing more sympathetic to international action.

Confession that formed base of Iraq war was acquired under torture: journalist An Al-Qaeda terror suspect captured by the United States, who gave evidence of links between Iraq and the terror network, confessed after being tortured, a journalist told the BBC

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that its first estimate of real GDP was up an annual rate of 1.6% in the third quarter, the weakest performance in three years. Housing was cited as the main drag.
  

• The core rate of personal consumption expenditures was up 2.4% YoY in the third quarter.
  

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment increased from 85.4 to 93.6 in October, more than expected.
  

• The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics estimated their wheat crop at 9.5 million tons, down from 25 million tons a year ago.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators placed a record amount of bets the yen will decline against the dollar, according to weekly data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
  

• Prime Minister Manmohan Singh Thursday said the Indian economy was moving at a rapid pace and hoped the rate of growth would reach 10 percent soon. 'At one time, eight to nine percent growth was unthinkable.
  

• FT-- The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are expected to keep their key policy interest rates unchanged at 0.25 per cent (on Tuesday) and 3.25 per cent (on Thursday) respectively but further monetary tightening can be expected from both before the end of the year.
  

Wheat lower in spite of world output warning
The IGC said a global deficit of about 64m tons was likely as world consumption was forecast to rise to a record 1,621 tons. In spite of the recent fall in energy prices and higher grain prices, demand from the ethanol sector was expected to rise by 20m tons to 67m tons, according to the IGC.

Cheney confirms that detainees were subjected to water-boarding
"It's a no-brainer for me," Cheney said at one point in an interview.

Quick Overview

• The Commerce Department reported the median price for a new home sold in September was $217,100, down 9.7 % from September 2005. This is the lowest median price for a new home since September 2004 and the largest year-over-year decline since December 1970.
  

• Sales of new homes rose by 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1.075 million homes This is second consecutive increase in sales following three months of declines.
  

• Durable goods orders posted their biggest increase in more than six years, rising 7.8% in September.
  
  

• First-time U.S. jobless claims rose 8,000 to 308,000 last week.
  
  

• Yuan central parity rate set at new high of 7.8940 to dollars versus 7.9007
  
  

• Zinc stocks on the London Metals Exchange fell 1,750 tons to 113,900 tons, the lowest level since 1991.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 19 billion cubic feet at 3.461 trillion cubic feet.

Quick Overview

• The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected.
  

• The National Association of Realtors said U.S. existing home sales were at an annual rate of 6.18 million units in September, down 1.9% MoM.
  

• The number of existing homes for sale dropped 2.4% to 3.75 million, a 7.3 month supply.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were down 3.3 million barrels to 332.3 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 2.8 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were up 700,000 barrels.
  

• AWB Ltd. reduced its estimate of Australia's wheat crop from 13.5 to 10.0 million tons.
  

• Consumer prices in Australia were up 3.9% YoY,
  

• Business confidence in Germany increased from 104.9 to 105.3 in October, more than expected.
  

• Former Chinese central bank adviser Yu Yongding said that China should allow the yuan to appreciate faster and that China should abandon its export promotion policy.

Can Israel Last? Maybe.
Mr. Bush seems to be losing his wars. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong, which would probably be a good thing. But if I’m right, when the United States is forced out of Iraq, American influence in the region will decline precipitately. For at least a decade, and perhaps forever, the US will not send troops to the region. The Moslem world will regard itself, correctly, as having defeated the Great Satan, and will no longer fear Washington. American control of Pakistan will probably vanish and, bingo, there’s the Islamic Bomb. Presumably the American puppets, such as Saudi Arabia, will blow with the prevailing winds.

60 percent increase over the last five years in government corruption convictions .. the Justice Department generally tries to keep a low profile on government corruption cases in the months before an election to avoid unfairly influencing voters

Quick Overview

• Euro zone industrial orders rose by 3.7 % in August from July and by 14.3 % YoY.
  
  

• Rumors circulated that Japan may be about to intervene in the currency market to prop up the currency.
  
  

• Mexico's trade deficit was $1.35 billion in September, more than double expectations, as imports jumped almost 18 % YoY.
  

• The World Bank says India would become the third largest economy after China and the US by 2025.
  

• Corn prices in Chicago rose to the highest in more than two years on speculation demand for ethanol and U.S. grain exports will outpace supplies.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. central bank is expected to hold interest rates steady for the third straight month when it meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.
  

• Japan's top financial diplomat said on Monday he was not expecting further declines in the value of the yen , and added that he saw Japan's economy staying on a solid recovery path.
  

• Retail sales in Canada were up 1.0% in August.

• Bush put Social Security reform on his list of "big items" to deal with in the final two years of his presidency.

Panama votes for a bigger canal
VOTERS in Panama have decided, by a margin of four-to-one, to go ahead with a proposal to expand their famous canal. Although relatively few turned out for the referendum on Sunday October 22nd, the result was decisive, with some 78% in favour of the plan to open the route to more and bigger ships.

Quick Overview

• YoY Canada's consumer prices were up 0.7%
  

• GDP in the U.K. was up 0.7% in the third quarter and up 2.8% YoY
  

• OPEC late yesterday announced that it reached an agreement to cut production by 1.2 mln barrels a day starting on November 1st .
  

• Virginia became the 15th U.S. state with Asian rust in its soybean fields. Asian rust may impact spring plating decisions for soybeans .
  

• The USDA said there were 11.385 million head of cattle on feed, up 8.6% YoY.
  

• The USDA said there were 464 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, up 7.5% YoY. Frozen bellies in storage were 10.25 million pounds, down 27% YoY.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 779 million pounds of frozen orange juice concentrate in storage down 37% YoY.
  
  
  

Countdown Special Comment: Death of Habeas Corpus: “Your words are lies, Sir.”