Fed admits US recession on cards
As Fed chairman Ben Bernanke prepares to decide whether to raise American interest rates for the 18th time on Tuesday, bond prices and the high level of borrowing costs are now showing a 38 per cent chance of recession, according to a model published by Fed economist Jonathan Wright earlier this year.

International crime rings, not hackers, true Internet villains More than two billion dollars will be stolen this year by online "phishing," using fake website and bogus e-mails to trick people into revealing personal information then used for identity theft, according to Evron.

Half of U.S. still believes Iraq had WMD Did Saddam Hussein's government have weapons of mass destruction in 2003?
Half of America apparently still thinks so, a new poll finds, and experts see a raft of reasons why: a drumbeat of voices from talk radio to die-hard bloggers to the Oval Office, a surprise headline here or there, a rallying around a partisan flag, and a growing need for people, in their own minds, to justify the war in Iraq.
People tend to become "independent of reality" in these circumstances, says opinion analyst Steven Kull.

Shortly before invasion, Bush didn't know there were two sects of Islam
Former Ambassador to Croatia Peter Galbraith is claiming President George W. Bush was unaware that there were two major sects of Islam just two months before the President ordered troops to invade Iraq, RAW STORY has learned.

Ethanol war brewing Everywhere you look these days, tech and business world luminaries - like Richard Branson, Paul Allen, Steve Case, Vinod Khosla, John Doerr, and Bill Gates - are laying down big bets on ethanol, a substitute for gasoline that's already finding its way into pumps.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.6% to 4.8% in July, weaker than expected. After the report, fed funds futures priced in a 16% chance of a Fed rate increase next week.
  

• Canada's unemployment rate increased from 6.1% to 6.4%.
  
  

• Australia's Reserve Bank expects real GDP to increase 3.5% this year with inflation around 3.0%.
  
  
  

• The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for German economic growth this year to 1.4 percent from 1.3.
  
  

• 414 companies in the S&P 500 (83%) have released results, and earnings rose by an average of 19% .
  
  

• German June factory orders unexpectedly declined -0.5% from a changed -1.5% decline in May.
  
  

• YoY U.K. personal bankruptcies rose +66% in the second quarter, the highest level since records began in 1960.

CONTRA KELO
Ohio’s top court has told the U.S. Supreme Court, "Thanks, but no thanks" for its rationale in Kelo v. City of New London, the 2005 case that allowed state and local governments to seize private property for private economic development.

US Watches Dreams of Transformation Dissolve
by Jim Lobe
That point was echoed by none other than Jordan's King Abdullah who, in the early days of the current round of fighting, had joined the Egyptian and Saudi governments in denouncing Hezbollah for "adventurism" in attacking across the Lebanese border, thus provoking Israel's devastating military campaign.

"A fact America and Israel must understand is that as long as there is aggression and occupation, there will be resistance and popular support for the resistance," Abdullah, arguably Washington's closest Arab ally, said Thursday. "People cannot sleep and wake up to pictures of the dead and images of destruction in Lebanon and Gaza and … say 'we want moderation.' Moderation needs deeds."

War of the Generals
URI AVNERY
In order to embark on a new course, the only one that will solve the problem: negotiations and peace with the Palestinians, the Lebanese, the Syrians. And: with Hamas and Hizbullah.
Because it's only with enemies that one makes peace.

China hit by rising air pollution
China is the world's largest sulphur dioxide polluter, emitting nearly 26m tons of the gas in 2005.

Net Neutrality May Derail Telecom Bill

Top Military Lawyers Oppose Plan for Special Courts
The military's top uniformed lawyers, appearing at a Senate hearing yesterday, criticized key provisions of a proposed new U.S. plan for special military courts, affirming that they did not see eye to eye with the senior Bush administration political appointees who developed the plan and presented it to them last week.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims were up 14,000 last week to 315,000, more than expected.
  

• The U.S. economy’s service sector growth, the biggest part of the economy, declined in July reducing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week.
  

• The European Central Bank increased its rate from 2.75% to 3.00%, as expected.
  

• The Bank of England surprisingly increased its lending rate from 4.50% to 4.75.
  

• An index of European service activity dropped from 60.7 to 57.9 in July.
  

‘The Trouble With You, Blumert’

I want to make LewRockwell.com’s already vast reach even vaster. I want to spread the truth about peace, freedom, and the free market, much more broadly. That’s how to deal with these cretins. But we can't do it without you.

I’d like a larger budget to get Lew some help. We also need more internet security. And we need to reach more people. I wish you could see the mail we get. Young libertarians, conservatives, and even leftists, from all over America and the world, can’t get enough of LewRockwell.com, and thanks to us, they do not buy the media lies, and they tell others, who tell others.

Banking on War
In the end, it is worthwhile to remember that whenever you see George W. Bush talking about winning the "War on Terror," you are looking at the largest arms dealer on the planet.

Quick Overview

• Bank of Japan Policy Board member Atsushi Mizuno said on Wednesday it would be a mistake to think there will be no more rate rises this year, although the central bank has said future rate moves will be gradual
  
  

• The Reserve Bank of Australia has lifted interest rates to 6%. This is the second increase this year.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that::
  Supplies of crude oil were down 1.8 million barrels to 333.7 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 100,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were up 1.7 million barrels.
  

• The International Cotton Advisory Committee expects 2006-2007 world ending stocks to total 45 million bales, less than the USDA's 47.5 million bale estimate
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage applications is at the lowest level since May 2002.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The core personal consumption expenditure index, a measure that strips out food and energy prices and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2 % in June. YoY the core PCE was up 2.4 %, after growing at 2.2 % YoY for May and April.
  
  

• The ISM's prices paid index was 78.5 in July versus June's 76.5.
  
  

• The Institute for Supply Management's July manufacturing index was 54.7, above an expected 53.6, and rebounding from June's 53.8.
  
  

• U.S. Construction spending was at an annual rate of $1.217 trillion in June, up slightly from May's pace.
  
  

• Germany's July unemployment rate fell to a 2-year low of 10.6% from 10.8%.
  
  

• Japan's land prices rose +0.9% in 2005. Land prices in Tokyo rose +5.4% in 2005, for the second year of growth.
  
  

• The unemployment rate in the Euro-12 improved from 7.9% to 7.8% in June while unemployment in the EU-25 improved from 8.2% to 8.1%.

Life After Earth
When the dust settles after World War III, or World War IX, humanity will still want to grow pineapples, rice, coffee and other crops.

US begins building treaty-breaching germ war defence centre
..the centre will have to produce and stockpile the world's most lethal bacteria and viruses, which is forbidden by the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. Three years before that treaty was agreed, President Richard Nixon halted the production of US biological weapons at Fort Detrick in Maryland. The same military base is the site for the new $128m (£70m), 160,000 sq ft laboratory.

Quick Overview

• The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index increased from 56.5 to 57.9 in July, stronger than expected.
  
  
  

• Retail sales in Germany rose 1.9% in June
  
  

• Canada's GDP was up 2.6% YoY.
  

• Japan's June industrial production rose 1.9% MoM, which was stronger than the market consensus of 1.3%
  

• Euro zone confidence rose to a 5-year high in July.
  

• Dow Jones Newswires estimated that China will import one million tons and India will import four million tons of wheat in 2006-2007.
  

• The Chinese Yuan extended its move to post a new 12-1/2 year high at 7.9650 Yuan / dollar.

The Peculiar Disappearance of the War in Iraq
As America fell into the quagmire of Vietnam, the comedian Milton Berle joked that the fastest way to end the war would be to put it on the last-place network, ABC, where it was certain to be canceled. Berle's gallows humor lives on in the quagmire in Iraq. Americans want this war canceled too, and first- and last-place networks alike are more than happy to oblige.

Cheney-Specter bill: a blank check for spying
Cheney-Specter bill: a blank check for spying
The so-called "compromise" legislation makes a mockery of the nation's historic separation of powers

Welcome To My Parlor
by William S. Lind
Operationally, Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on Israel are the matador’s cape. That too is working. What of the strategic level? The Arab street is cheering for Hezbollah, often across the Sunni-Shiite divide, while the governments of states such as Egypt hide under the bed. The goal of Islamic Fourth Generation forces is the destruction of most, if not all, Arab state governments, so Hezbollah is winning strategically as well. One can almost watch the legitimacy drain away from the region’s decrepit states, with incalculable consequences for American interests.
Not that Washington is doing anything to protect those interests. On the contrary, it has rushed more bombs and aviation fuel to Israel, lest there be any unwelcome let-up in the destruction of Lebanon. In no previous Israeli-Arab war has the United States revealed itself so nakedly as a de facto political adjunct of Israel. Perhaps the neo-cons have convinced President Bush that Israeli olive oil can substitute for Arab petroleum as fuel for America’s SUVs.

Bush said Monday the Tea Lady is working "urgently" to achieve a sustainable ceasefire in the Middle East.

''Escalating Conflict in the Middle East Could Spark a Global Recession''
As the war between Israel and Lebanon escalates, growing regional and world outrage may increasingly be channeled toward the United States -- the only country that has influence over Tel Aviv. This may encourage the world's three largest oil producers, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran, to significantly reduce oil exports in order to increase pressure on Washington to rein in Israel's military actions. An oil export embargo undertaken by just Russia and Iran, which together account for 20 percent of the world's oil exports, would be much more effective at extracting a major policy change from the Bush administration than Syrian and Iranian missile strikes against Israel.

Millions of children to be fingerprinted
British children, possibly as young as six, will be subjected to compulsory fingerprinting under European Union rules being drawn up in secret. The prints will be stored on a database which could be shared with countries around the world.

On each landing, opposite the lift shaft, the poster with the enormous face gazed from the wall. It was one of those pictures which are so contrived that the eyes follow you about when you move. BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING YOU, the caption beneath it ran. (Orwell 1984)

Mandelson: US greed caused the Doha collapse
..Washington should have been prepared to trade cuts in support for its farmers against gains elsewhere in the talks - such as new markets for US manufacturers and services firms.

Dollar Bear Market Resumes as Outlook for Higher Rates Fades
Most traders surveyed by Bloomberg say the dollar's tumble will continue this week. Seventy-five percent of the 48 traders, investors and analysts polled from Sydney to New York on July 28 advised buying euros, the most in the past year. Eighty-three percent said to buy yen. The poll has accurately forecast the dollar's direction in 27 of the past 52 weeks against the euro and in 29 versus the yen.

The Karamazov Question What Price for Paradise?
by CHRIS FLOYD


"They have put too high a price on harmony; we can't afford to pay so much for admission. And therefore I return my ticket."
Ivan Karamazov, BookFive, Chapter Four: "Rebellion."

..The man nodded. "If tonight you could guarantee the good of the world -- peace and freedom, democracy and prosperity, now and forever; if tonight, you could relieve the suffering of all those who labor under tyranny and persecution, all those who groan in poverty and disease; if tonight, you could redeem the anguish of creation, past and future, now and forever; if tonight, you could guarantee this universal reconciliation, by the simple expedient of taking this" -- here the man suddenly produced a black pistol and held it out to the president -- "and putting a bullet through the brain of this little one here, just her, no one else: would you do it? That is my question, this is your opportunity." ..


(56 people, more than half of them children, were killed Sunday in an Israeli airstrike on Qana, Lebanon)

Cabinet in open revolt over Blair's Israel policy
The Observer can also reveal that at a cabinet meeting before Blair left for last Friday's Washington summit with President George Bush, minister after minister pressed him to break with the Americans and publicly criticise Israel over the scale of death and destruction.



Analysis: A second Qana Massacre?
The southern Lebanese town of Qana is known for two events in history, and there could soon be a third as news comes in of rising civilian casualties from an Israeli air strike there.

For Syria's envoy, no calls from the White House
Syria's ambassador to the United States, Imad Moustapha, has not had a single meeting with any senior Bush administration official in a year and half. Even in the current crisis, his phone does not ring.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Department of Commerce said the U.S. economy grew at a below forecast 2.5 percent annual rate last quarter, less than half the speed of the preceding three months. YoY real GDP was up 3.5%. YoY the GDP price deflator was up 3.3% in the second quarter, less than expected.
  
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped from 84.9 to 84.7.
  

• The Labor Department said the employment cost index increased 0.9% in the second quarter and 3.0% YoY.
  

• Republicans are willing to allow the first minimum wage increase in a decade but only if it's coupled with a cut in future inheritance taxes on multimillion-dollar estates, congressional aides said.
  

• YoY Japans consumer prices were up 1.0% in June. The International Monetary Fund declared that deflation in Japan had ended but also said monetary policy should remain accommodative to allow inflation expectations to drift up.
  

• The unemployment rate in Japan increased from 4.0% to 4.2% in June.
  

Gonzales Worried About War Crime Charges

Tide of Arab Opinion Turns to Support for Hezbollah The Saudi royal family and King Abdullah II of Jordan, who were initially more worried about the rising power of Shiite Iran, Hezbollah’s main sponsor, are scrambling to distance themselves from Washington.

An outpouring of newspaper columns, cartoons, blogs and public poetry readings have showered praise on Hezbollah while attacking the United States and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for trumpeting American plans for a “new Middle East” that they say has led only to violence and repression.

Analysis: Bush Foreign Policy Struggling
"This president has a very firm world view that is not about to be changed by facts or realities.

Quick Overview

• France's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 9.0 pct in June from 9.1 pct in May.
  
  

• U.S. Durable goods were up 3.1% in June, more than expected. Excluding aircraft and defense items, orders were up 0.4%, weaker than expected.
  

• U.S. New home sales were at an annual rate of 1.131 million units in June, down 3% MoM. New home sales are down 12% YoY.
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 7,000 last week to 298,000.
  

• Mexico's economy will grow more than 4 percent in 2006 and create about 900,000 new jobs, surpassing earlier forecasts, the government said.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 7 billion cubic feet last week. Supplies are up 16% YoY.
  

Iran: The Next War
Even before the bombs fell on Baghdad, a group of senior Pentagon officials were plotting to invade another country. Their covert campaign once again relied on false intelligence and shady allies. But this time, the target was Iran. BY JAMES BAMFORD

Quick Overvview

• A Bank of Japan official suggested the next interest-rate hike might come sooner than some had expected.
  
  
  

• The Federal Reserve's Beige Book said that all twelve districts showed continued economic growth in the past twelve months, but seven of the districts pointed out the rate of growth had slowed.
  

• Australia consumer prices were up 1.6% in the second quarter and up 4.0% YoY
  

• German business confidence (IFO) dropped from 106.8 to 105.6 in July, more than expected.
  

• The dollar extended its losses on Wednesday, hitting session lows across-the-board after a Federal Reserve survey reinforced a view the U.S. economy is slowing and that interest rates may be set to peak.
  
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were unchanged last week at 335.5 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 3.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were up 1.2 million barrels.
  

• Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up 1.8% YoY and YoY distillate demand was up 6.2%.
  

The Case for the Barbarous Relic

With this comes a belligerent and blind nationalism that has affected the whole culture in one degree or another. In an empire, the people must become "hollow dummies," said Orwell. They must believe they are superior to others, and have a right to tell other others what to do. Americans seem to go beyond even this. They believe that other countries actually want to be invaded and occupied and shaped into mini-American by the US.

The Lawless State If the Founding Fathers could see us now, they’d surely ask, “How on earth did you get yourselves into this mess?” We’ve managed to do nearly everything the Constitution was designed to prevent us from doing.

Is Beirut Burning? By URI AVNERY
Thousands of e-mail distribution lists have circulated a horrible series of photos of mutilated babies and children. At the end, there is a macabre photo: jolly Israeli children writing "greetings" on the artillery shells that are about to be fired. Then there appears a message: "Thanks to the children of Israel for this nice gift. Thanks to the world that does nothing. Signed: the children of Lebanon and Palestine."

Quick Overview

Existing home sales fell 1.3% MoM, down 8.9% YoY, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday


U.S. consumer confidence fell slightly in the latest week despite gasoline prices reaching $3 a gallon, the highest since Hurricane Katrina, ABC News and the Washington Post said on Tuesday


The Conference Board's consumer sentiment index increased from 105.4 to 106.5 in July, more than expected.

YoY South Korea's GDP was up 5.3% in the first quarter.

Israel Is Winning the Battle, But Not the War
Although the Americans have run into a quagmire in Iraq, they finally realize, at least theoretically, that they can’t defeat the Iraqi insurgency through military means. They are attempting to negotiate their way out, but it may be too late. (The Sunni insurgents deliberately attacked the Shi’a in order to start a sectarian civil war, which is now raging.) Unfortunately, the Israelis are even further behind the slow Americans in coming to terms with reality. They still fail to realize that military solutions, as well as unilateral political actions, are not the answer to guerrilla war and terrorism.

Quick Overview

• Retail sales in Canada totaled C$32.6 billion in May, down 0.6% on the month, but up 7.4% YoY.
  
  

• The Reserve Bank of India is expected to raise short-term interest rates by 25 basis points.
  
  

• Nationwide gas prices hit an all-time high at $3.015 in the last two weeks, the Lundberg Survey of 7,000 gas stations said.
  
  

• The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled the U.S. illegally charged duties on Canadian lumber after NAFTA said there was no justification for them.
  

• Brazil's No. 1 sugar and ethanol equipment manufacturer Dedini SA Industrias de Base has launched a series of technologies this week, including a new process for refining white sugar and a more efficient way to distill hydrous ethanol.
  
  

• According to the Ag Department, 59% of corn is rated good to excellent and beans are called 54% good to excellent, both down 3% WoW.

ACTING LIKE NAZIS
George W. Bush exceeded Hitler's 50-to-1 ratio.

Doha trade talks collapse over farm subsidies
countries including the EU and India said that the US needed to reform its farm subsidies first.

ABA Panel chides Bush on bypassing laws
Bush should stop issuing statements claiming the power to bypass parts of laws he has signed, an American Bar Association task force has unanimously concluded in a strongly worded 32-page report that is scheduled to be released today

Pressure put on US as G8 prepares way for trade deal
The US suggested it could scale back on farm subsidies; Europe said it could make bigger cuts in agricultural tariffs than it had previously offered; and developing countries, led by Brazil and India, said they could lower barriers to imports of manufactured goods.

"Stop That Shit!" By URI AVNERY
And the most disgusting sight: George Bush in a playful mood sitting on his chair in St. Petersburg, with his loyal servant Tony Blair leaning over him, and solving the problem: "See? What they need to do is get Syria to get Hizbullah to stop doing that shit, and it's over."Thus spake the leader of the world, and the seven dwarfs - "the great of the world" - say Amen.

Elegy for Beirut
The anger that any human soul should feel at such suffering and loss was expressed so well by Lebanon's greatest poet, the mystic Khalil Gibran, when he wrote of the half million Lebanese who died in the 1916 famine, most of them residents of Beirut:

My people died of hunger, and he who

Did not perish from starvation was

Butchered with the sword;

They perished from hunger

In a land rich with milk and honey.

They died because the vipers and

Sons of vipers spat out poison into

The space where the Holy Cedars and

The roses and the jasmine breathe

Their fragrance.

Iranian Ambassador: We Support Turkey's Possible Cross-Border Operation
“Turkey has the right to annihilate terrorists wherever they are found. Iran is ready to do its best to help Turkey,” Dowlatabadi continued.

James Zogby: Willful Fantasies and Reality in Today's Mideast Conflict
While some conservatives and Democrats have learned lessons from past Israeli-Arab conflicts and from the recent US experiences in Iraq, the Administration and most members of Congress have fallen in line, uttering banalities like, "Israel has a right to defend itself" (even, if that means killing hundreds of civilians and destroying Lebanon in the process), or "let Israel finish the job it started" (as if the deaths and devastation resulting from this war will have no consequences in Lebanon and the broader Middle East).

Craven Image: The Senate Bows to Imperial Power Well, that didn't take long. Two weeks ago we wrote here that the "lockstep, lickspittle" U.S. Congress would scurry to give their approval to the dictatorial powers asserted by President George W. Bush after the Supreme Court struck down those claims in the Hamdan case earlier this month. And lo and behold, last week Republican Senator Arlen Specter introduced a bill that would not only confirm Bush's unrestrained, unconstitutional one-man rule – it would augment it, exalting the Dear Leader to even greater authoritarian heights.

The new language of diplomacy: this bombing thingy is well out of order
On the other hand, I rather warmed to Mr Bush’s gangsta rap summary of the crisis in Lebanon. “You see, the thing is,” he said, alluding to Russia’s influence in the area, “what they need to do is to get Syria to get Hezbollah to stop doing this shit and it’s over.” He’s right, of course. Why has no one else thought of it before? If only everyone spoke their mind so clearly, things might get done rather more quickly than the quagmire that is modern diplomacy. I think I prefer Mr Bush’s shorthand version of world affairs than listening to the Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, burying herself in obfuscation on BBC radio yesterday as she attempted to avoid criticising Israeli tactics. It was like being wrapped in blancmange.

Hezbollah, Hamas and Israel: Everything You Need To Know ALEXANDER COCKBURN
I hope you’ve enjoyed these little excursions into history, even though history is dangerous, which is why the US press gives it a wide birth. But even without the benefit of historical instruction, a majority of Americans in CNN’s instant poll –- about 55 per cent out of 800,000 as of midday, July 19 -- don’t like what Israel is up to.

Feds sharpen secret tools for data mining
"There's a tendency with all of these systems to lead with terrorism and then find other applications," Rotenberg says.