Quick Overview

• U.S. Consumer confidence dropped to a new low for the year last week, pushed down again by the high gasoline prices and a weak job market, ABC News and the Washington Post said on Tuesday.
  

• A surge in tax revenues has put the Bush administration years ahead of schedule in a bid to halve the nation's budget gap by 2009, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said.
  

• The U.S. Census Bureau said that housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.849 million units in April, down 7.4% from March's pace. YoY housing starts are down 1%.
  

• The U.S. producer price index was up 0.9% in April, slightly more than expected, and up 4.0% YoY. Excluding food and energy costs however, prices were up only 0.1% in April and up 1.5% YoY, less than expected.
  

• The Federal Reserve said that U.S. industrial production increased 0.8% in April, more than expected.
  

• Consumer prices in the U.K. were up 0.6% in April and up 2.0% YoY
  

• Investor confidence in Germany dropped from 62.7 to 50.0 in May.
  

• The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were down 76,002 bags.
  

Bush & Nixon photo finish
While Bush’s approval rating is still a bit higher than Nixon’s at a comparable point, his disapproval rating now exceeds or equals that of Nixon’s in every Gallup poll except one. This sole exception is the final poll in July, 1974 just before Nixon left office, when Nixon’s disapproval rating was a single point higher at 66%.

Quick Overview

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing dropped from 15.81 to 12.36 in May, weaker than expected, but still a sign of expansion.
  

• The U.S. Treasury said that foreign purchases of U.S. securities totaled $89.2 billion in March.
  

• Statistics Canada said that manufacturing gained 1.6% in March
  

• YoY Indonesia's GDP was up of 4.6% in the first quarter of 2006.
  

• YoY Mexican industrial output rose 9.7 percent in March.
  
  

• China's retail sales in April grew 13.6 percent from a year earlier.
  
  

• China's banks continued to add new loans rapidly in April, with total yuan loans growing 15.5 percent YoY.
  
  

• Dow-Jones News Wire reports that S&P and the Toronto Stock Exchange are preparing to roll out the first real-time global gold index. The Toronto Stock Exchange is home to about 60% of the world's public mining companies. The new index is expected to be up and running by the end of the year.
  
  

• The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were down 76.002 bags to 5.2 million bags.
  The USDA estimated Brazil's coffee crop at 44.8 million bags.

U.S., Seeking Smaller Deficit, Signals Comfort With Dollar Drop
The Bush administration, seeking to narrow its near record trade deficit, is signaling comfort with the dollar's 6.6 percent decline this year.

Chart of the day (2)

S&P 500 divided by Vix (Volatility Index) Ratio (S&P 500 green, Ratio red, ****12 day ROC, Rate of change of the Ratio in blue**** )

Chart of the day (1)
NYSE Weekly Advancing Issues

NSA Whistleblower Says "People Are Going To Be Shocked" By His Testimony Next Week..."This Is Only The Tip Of The Iceberg"

Say "Thank You" to the one phone company that refused to give the NSA your phone records.

Basics, Not Luxuries, Blamed for High Debt
The debt of the typical American family earning about $45,000 a year rose 33.1 percent from 2001 to 2004, after adjusting for inflation, according to a study based on data compiled from the Federal Reserve Board's most recent Survey of Consumer Finances

Quick Overview

• U.S. Exports in March were up $2.1 billion to $114.7 billion while imports were down $1.5 billion to $176.7 billion. The difference of $62.0 billion is less than expected.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped from 87.4 to 79.0 in May, more than projected and the lowest reading in seven months.
  

• Canada's exports were up 1.1% in March while imports were up 3.6%.
  
  

• The USDA released its first estimates of 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks for grains:
  Corn at 1.141 billion bushels, down from 2.226 billion bushels in 2005-2006. The USDA raised its forecast of corn use by the ethanol industry for the coming crop year by 550 million bushels, or 34%.
  Soybeans at 650 million bushels, up from 565 million bushels in 2005-2006.
  Wheat at 447 million bushels, down from 547 million bushels in 2005-2006.
  Sugar at 870,000 tons, down from 1.437 million tons in 2005-2006.
  Cotton at 4.90 million bales, down from 6.50 million bales in 2005-2006.
  

• The USDA estimated 2006-2007 world ending stocks for:
  Corn at 92 million tons, down from 129 million tons in 2005-2006.
  Wheat at 128 million tons, down from 144 million tons in 2005-2006.
  Cotton at 47 million bales, down from 52 million bales in 2005-2006.
  

• The USDA kept its estimate of the Florida orange crop unchanged at 153 million boxes, but increased the projected juice yield from 1.61 to 1.62 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.
  

• The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast of 2006 world demand by 220,000 barrels a day.

Global miner BHP Billiton Where To From Here?
Demand for commodities is not just being driven by Chinese economicgrowth, other emerging economies are following. "Demographics and economic development could continue for years," ..

Quick Overview

• Retail sales increased in April by a seasonally adjusted 0.5%, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Wall Street expected a 0.8% advance. Gas station sales rose by 4.6% in April, the largest since 6.0% in September 2005. Taking out sales at gas stations, demand at all other retailers rose just 0.1%.
  

• The Commerce Department reported business inventories rose more than expected during March, up by 0.7% to $1.324 trillion.
  

• U.S. Jobless claims were down 1,000 last week to 324,000, more than expected.
  

• GDP in the Euro zone increased 0.6% in the first quarter and 2.0% YoY.
  

• Factory production in the U.K. increased 0.7% in March
  

• Australia's unemployment rate increased from 5.0% to 5.1%
  

• New Zealand's unemployment rate increased from 3.6% to 3.9%
  

• The European Biodiesel Board reported the European Union produced 3.2 million tons of biodiesel in 2005 with roughly half coming from Germany. In 2006, production capacity is on track to reach 6.07 million tons.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 85 billion cubic feet last week to 1.989 trillion cubic feet, up 33% YoY.
  
  
  

Homes piling up

The number of unsold homes on the Denver-area market hit a record 29,045 in April, according to reports released Thursday.

A World Too Complex To Be Managed
If you look inside an elderly person’s medicine cabinet and see the many drugs that are used to suppress symptoms brought on by previous drugs, you will see a perfect parallel to the expansion of governmental “solutions” to politicogenic “problems.”

Rumsfeld on Daily Show
Nixon ... “He’s a ruthless ">little bastard. You can be sure of that.”

Anger toward US boosts Latin America's leftist leaders

House Panel Urges Reworking of Leases for Oil Drilling in U.S.-Owned Waters

NSA has massive database of Americans' phone calls
The Democrat, who at one point held up a copy of the newspaper, added: ''Shame on us for being so far behind and being so willing to rubber stamp anything this administration does. We ought to fold our tents.''

The FBI has a new way of tracking terrorists

Quick Overview

• As expected the Fed raised the fed funds rate to 5 percent and suggested they may not be finished with the nearly two-year run of increases.
  

• The U.S. Treasury Department ruled on Wednesday that China was not a currency manipulator but pledged to "actively and frankly" push Beijing toward faster exchange-rate flexibility that would let its yuan rise in value.
  

• Japan's official reserve assets April, out at $860.2B vs. $852.0B expected.
  

• Japans index of "leading" indicators was down 0.2% in March to 101.6.
  

• The World Bank increased its growth estimate for China's economy this year from 9.2% to 9.5%.
  
  

• There are rumors in the market that China could quadruple its gold reserves to around 2,500 tons from 600 tons currently.
  
  

• There was talks in the market of Iran would raise EUR reserves.
  

• Bloomberg news reported the main shaft at Barrick Gold's Deep South mine in South Africa was damaged and may take up to a year to repair. Last year, the mine produced 469,000 ounces of gold, but that may now be cut in half.
  

• Grupo Mexico closed its San Martin copper mine due to an unresolved strike.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil supplies were up 300,000 barrels at 347.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 2.4 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were up 400,000 barrels.
  

• Canada's wheat stocks totaled 18.8 million tons on March 1st, up 22% from a year ago.
  

• Canada’s canola stocks totaled 5.1 million tons, up 36% from a year ago.
  
  

• Divisions emerged on Capitol Hill on Wednesday over whether the U.S. should suspend or lower fuel ethanol import tariffs in the face of high gasoline pump prices.
  

Nybot to Revive Ethanol Futures as Biofuel Use Surges
The New York Board of Trade plans to revise its ethanol futures and options contracts soon to capitalize on growth in biofuel demand and output as fossil-fuel prices climb, exchange officers said this week.

Another Possible Bump to the Debt Ceiling
With passage of the budget, the House will have raised the federal borrowing limit by an additional $653 billion, to $9.62 trillion. It would be the fifth debt-ceiling increase in recent years, after boosts of $450 billion in 2002, a record $984 billion in 2003, $800 billion in 2004 and $653 billion in March. When Bush took office, the statutory borrowing limit stood at $5.95 trillion.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer confidence dropped sharply to its lowest level of the year last week, weighed down by high gasoline prices and a weakening job market, ABC News and the Washington Post said on Tuesday.

• The Bank of Japan is considering upgrading its assessment of the economy in its monthly report, saying for the first time in nearly 15 years the economy is "expanding", Jiji Press news agency reported.
  

• Gold spiked up to a new 25-year high above $700 an ounce on Tuesday on dollar weakness, while platinum set a new record on strong industrial demand and fund buying.
  

• Oklahoma Wheat Commission is estimating the state's winter wheat crop at 67 million bushels, down from 128 million bushels a year ago and the lowest in almost fifty years.

The Colbert video is publicly available through an agreement with Google Video.

Buffett and Silver
On commodities, Mr Buffett said he detected speculative participation in the recent run-up in prices, particularly metals. He added that Berkshire had not benefited from the sharp rise in silver prices, in spite of at one time owning a lot of the metal.

"I bought it very early, I sold it very early. Other than that, it was perfect," he joked.

Bush's Pick For CIA Spot Directed Illegal Spying Program
``If the Senate has a mind to assert its constitutional prerogatives here, then we could use this for leverage to find out,'' Specter said on ``Fox News Sunday.'' ``People do want to know what's going on to protect civil liberties.''

Quick Overview

• Business confidence in Germany rose from 103.4 to 105.4 in March, the highest in 15 years.
  

• Canada's housing starts were at an annual rate of 218,100 units in April, down 13% MoM
  

• Retail sales in Australia rose 0.3% in March.
  

• The European Commission increased its estimate of 2006 GDP growth from 1.9% to 2.1% for the Euro zone, but reduced its 2007 estimate from 2.1% to 1.8%.
  

• Land prices in Japan rose in 2005 for the first time in 15 years, Bank of Japan calculations showed on Monday, underscoring the economy's steady recovery from more than a decade of stagnation.
  

• Crude oil futures prices dropped below $70 a barrel Monday on rising U.S. gasoline supplies and a letter from Iran's leader to President Bush proposing "new solutions" to increasing tensions

Real estate slows, commodities speculative: Buffett

"We've had a bubble to some degree," he said, noting that Berkshire has a good view of the market through the thousands of real estate agencies it owns. "We see a slowdown every place."

Dollar Falls to 7-Month Low Versus Yen on Outlook for Rate Halt
The Treasury objects to what it sees as an attempt by Japan to reinterpret the G-7 statement, said the officials, who asked not to be named. The statement called on China and other developing Asian nations to allow their currencies to rise to help reduce lopsided global trade flows.

Chart of the day
Average U.S. Real Estate Price

The fallout from a falling dollar

"We seem to have reached a crossroads," says Anthony Chan, chief economist at JPMorgan Private Client Services in Columbus, Ohio. With foreign interest rates on the rise, he says, it will become harder to finance the US current account deficit.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Labor Department said the unemployment rate remained at 4.7% in April. Nonfarm payrolls gained 138,000, less than expected.
  

• Average U.S. hourly earnings rose 0.5% in April and up 3.8% YoY.
  

• Canada's unemployment rate rose from 6.3% to 6.4% in April.
  

• The Sao Paulo sugarcane industry association estimated Brazil's 2006-2007 center-south sugarcane crop at 375 million tons, up from a previous estimate of 363 million tons.
  

• The Bush White House is urging Congress to remove the import tariff on ethanol. Farm-state lawmakers however say they're prepared to fight vigorously any attempt to remove the 54-cent tariff on imported ethanol even though demand for the additive is growing as refiners use more of it in gasoline.
  
  

• The 2006 Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat Tour, estimated the state's crop at 319.2 million bushels, versus 380 million bushels last year.

The truthiness hurts
Stephen Colbert's brilliant performance unplugged the Bush myth machine -- and left the clueless D.C. press corps gaping

U.S. sees IMF role in fixing imbalances

The United States on Thursday said the International Monetary Fund could help in rectifying massive global imbalances, including the U.S. current account and the budget deficits, that pose a risk for the international economy.

Bird flu plan lacks a key detail
The Bush administration's pandemic flu action plan, issued Wednesday, is a good step toward getting the nation ready for a 1918-style flu disaster, health experts say, but it's missing a key element: how to pay for it.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims were up 5,000 last week to 322,000, more than expected.
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said that nonfarm business productivity increased at an annual rate of 3.2%
  
  

• Norway unemployment rate April, out at 2.8%
  

• UK money supply March F, (YoY) out at 12.3% vs. 12.4% expected.
  

• UK PMI services April, out at 59.7 vs. 57.6 expected.
  

• UK official reserves for April, out at $936M vs. $239M expected.
  

• EU Euro-Zone MoM retail sales for March out at -0.8% vs. 0.1% expected.
  

• EU ECB leaves rate at 2.50% as expected.
  
  
  

• The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 53 billion cubic feet last week to 1.904 trillion cubic feet.
  
  
  

Colbert Does the White House Correspondents' dinner:

Republicans agreed to a $70 billion package of tax cuts

Mexico to Allow Use of Drugs

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. index of services increased from 60.5 to 63.0 in April, more than expected.
  

• U.S. factory orders were up 4.2% in March, more than expected.
  

• Australia increased its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percent to 5.75%, the highest in over five years.
  

• The unemployment rate in the Euro zone improved from 8.2% to 8.1% in March
  
  

• UBS said the uptake of Barclays' silver exchange traded fund is exceeding expectations and will likely reach and possibly exceed 100 million troy ounces within the first month.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil supplies were up 1.7 million barrels last week to 346.7 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 2.1 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were down 800,000 barrels.

Quick Overview

• The confidence of U.S. consumers fell to its lowest level this year, weighed down by the high cost of gasoline, ABC News and The Washington Post said in a report on Tuesday.
  

• Senior White House economist Edward Lazear said that proposals to cut the gasoline tax would take energy policy in the wrong direction by encouraging consumption
  
  

• European manufacturing increased from 56.1 to 56.7 in April, the highest in five years.
  

• Manufacturing in the U.K. increased from 51.0 to 54.1 in April.
  

• Brazilian sugar exports totaled 758,200 metric tons in April, down 29.8% from the roughly 1.08 million tons exported in the same month last year, according to preliminary figures issued by the Foreign Trade Secretariat Tuesday.
  
  

• Shares in Archer Daniels Midland Co. surged to a new all-time high on the heels of a 29 percent increase in third-quarter earnings, driven by an increase in demand for processed oilseeds and corn byproducts such as ethanol.

• Concern that mineral-rich Bolivia would extend a nationalization program from oil and gas to other natural resources, like silver, saw investors switching out of mining stocks and into the silver ETF shares."

Former bear turns bullish on global economy

But on Monday, in a note to clients, he said: “I must confess that I am now feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.” (sell everything ?)

Quick Overview

• Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow on Monday said that core inflation is currently contained, but is at the high-end of his "comfort zone," and at the top of his list of worries about the economy.
  
  

• Continued growth in the U.S. current account deficit cannot be sustained, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Jack Guynn said on Monday, adding that economic forces should help correct the imbalance over time.
  
  

• Americans personal income increased at a seasonally adjusted monthly rate of 0.8%, after rising 0.3% in February, the Commerce Department said Monday. Spending climbed by 0.6%, more than expected, after a 0.2% increase the month before.
  
  

• The core rate of personal consumption expenditures was up 0.3% in March and up 2.0% YoY, slightly more than expected. The measure is said to be a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve.
  
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of U.S. manufacturing increased from 55.2 to 57.3 in April, more than expected.
  

• Construction spending jumped 0.9% in March, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
  

• The Florida Citrus Processors said there were 88.7 million gallons of frozen orange juice concentrate in inventory in April, down 40% YoY.
  

A Fondness for Fossil Fuels
If we’re to have a hydrogen economy, we have to secure our supplies of natural gas.

US admits Iraq is terror 'cause'
THREE years after its invasion of Iraq the US Administration acknowledged yesterday that the war has become “a cause” for Islamic extremists worldwide and there is a risk of the country becoming a safe haven for terrorists hoping to launch fresh attacks on America.

Leftist trio seals Americas pact
The left-wing leaders of Bolivia, Cuba and Venezuela have signed a three-way trade agreement aimed at countering US influence in Latin America.

Quick Overview

• U.S. First quarter GDP was up 4.8% -- slightly less than expected. YoY, U.S. GDP was up 3.5%.
  

• The U.S. employment cost index was up 0.6% in the first quarter.
  

• YoY the GDP price deflator was up 3.3%.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped from 88.9 to 87.4 in April, weaker than expected.
  

• The Chicago Purchasing Manager' index was down to 57.2 form 60.4 in April.
  
  

• Canada's GDP was up 0 .2% in February and up 3.3% YoY.
  

• YoY the Euro zone consumer prices increased 2.4% in April .
  

• YoY consumer prices in Japan were up 0.3% in March
  

• The International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran was in defiance of the U.N. Security Council.

• Over 1.9 million shares of the silver ETF traded on the first day. This, if you assume that no real flipping occurred, means that 19 million ounces of silver now call the ETF home.
  (Some analysts estimate total world silver stocks at 500 mill oz . So 19 million would be 4%)
  

SEC okays Barclays silver ETF
Each share of the exchange-traded fund represents 10 ounces of silver and they will trade under the symbol SLV, Barclays said in a filing with the exchange. The price of silver has risen 44 per cent this year, in part because investors bet the Barclays fund will boost demand for the metal.

Senators to push for $100 gas rebate checks

Quick Overview

• U.S. Jobless claims were up 11,000 last week to 315,000.
  

• China raised its key interest rate from 5.58% to 5.85%.
  

• Ben Bernanke signaled that after one more interest rate increase the central bank may take a break, perhaps only temporarily, from a rate-raising campaign aimed at keeping inflation at bay.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 80 billion cubic feet last week to 1.851 trillion cubic feet.
  

• A registration statement for the Silver ETF from Barclays Global Investors was declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The trust is expected to trade under the symbol "SLV”, and should start trading Friday.