Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Quick Overview

  • Former U.S. central bank chief Alan Greenspan said Wednesday that global economic imbalances might improve if some high-growth economies allowed their currencies to strengthen

  • Japan's current account surplus grew 6.2 percent in February on year to 2.209 trillion yen before seasonal adjustment, the Ministry of Finance said Wednesday.
    The Bank of Japan decided to keep its interest rate near zero.

  • YoY Retail sales in the U.K. were down 1.4% in March.

  • The National Association of Realtors said that they expect new home sales to total 1.14 million units, down 10.9% YoY.

  • Europe's cocoa grind totaled 308,775 tons in the first quarter of 2006, up 9.2% YoY.

  • The International Coffee Organization reduced its estimate of world coffee production from 121 to 120 million bags for 2006-2007.

Monday, April 10, 2006

Quick Overview

  • Federal Reserve governors said on Monday it was still unclear how much further interest rates need to rise to achieve correct levels of balance between growth and inflation.

  • The International Monetary Fund expects the U.S. economy to grow by more than 3 percent this year, with the world economy growing at more than 4 percent, according to European newspaper reports on Monday.

  • Japanese machinery orders, a key gauge of capital spending, rose 3.4% in February, a sign that strong investment by companies is likely to keep underpinning a steady recovery.

  • YoY Singapore's GDP was up 9.1% in the first quarter.

  • The first ETF (USO) allowing U.S. investors to engage directly (long and short) in the price of crude oil began trading on the American Stock Exchange.

  • New ultralow-sulfur diesel fuel, which is due out later this year, should be ready on time, but it may be a tough, irritating and expensive, engineers from the federal government and two oil companies told a trucking industry conference.


  • The USDA 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
    Corn was reduced from 2.351 to 2.301 billion bushels.
    Soybeans were unchanged at 565 million bushels.
    Wheat was reduced from 542 to 532 million bushels.
    Sugar was reduced from 1.51 to 1.50 million tons.
    Cotton was reduced from 6.60 to 6.50 million bales.

  • The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for:
    Corn was reduced from 130 to 129 million tons.
    Soybeans were reduced from 54.4 to 53.8 million tons.
    Wheat was increased from 142.6 to 143.1 million tons.
    Cotton was reduced from 53.3 to 52.9 million bales.

  • The USDA's estimate of Brazil and Argentina's soybean crop was reduced from 3.64 to 3.58 billion bushels, this is still 6% more than last year.


  • The USDA lowered its estimate of Florida's 2005-2006 orange crop from 154 to 153 million boxes, but raised the anticipated juice yield from 1.58 to 1.61 gallons a box at 42 degrees Brix.

  • The Brazilian government lowered its estimate of the forthcoming coffee crop from 42.0 to 40.6 million bags.

Friday, April 07, 2006

IMF warns high prices risk global crisis

High energy prices are “exacerbating” global economic imbalances, increasing the risks of a crisis, the International Monetary Fund will warn next week.
Regulators To Issue Mortgage Warning

Quick Overview

  • It would be harder for the Federal Reserve to deal with a spike in inflation than a softening of growth, a Fed policy-maker said on Friday, suggesting the central bank may want to err on the side of higher interest rates.

  • U.S. Payrolls rose 211,000 in March and the fell to 4.7% from 4.8% the previous month, the lowest in four years. YoY average hourly earnings were up 3.4%.

  • U.S. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in February, the Commerce Department said Friday.

  • Rail intermodal traffic on U.S. railroads rose 11%, while carload traffic inched up 0.6% last week compared with the same week a year ago, the Association of American Railroads said.

  • Canada's unemployment rate improved from 6.4% to 6.3% in March, the lowest in 32 years.


  • Germany's cocoa grind totaled 78,322 tons in the first quarter of 2006, up 35% YoY. For 2005, Germany's cocoa grind was up 10%.

  • U.S. Consumers may face gasoline shortages or price hikes at the pump this summer because of fuel additive changes at refineries and a likely strong hurricane season, the U.S. Energy Secretary said on Friday.


Thursday, April 06, 2006

Quick Overview

  • The number of workers filing initial unemployment claims fell 5,000 last week to a five-year low, the Labor Department reported Thursday

  • Australia's unemployment rate improved from 5.2% to 5.0% in March, the lowest in 29 years.

  • Japan's Cabinet Office said that its leading index dropped from 81.8% to 80.0% in February, still a sign of growth.

  • Mexico Sugar Growers Union sees 05-06 sugar crop down 8.8% YoY at 5.288M MT

  • The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 10 billion cubic feet to 1.695 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are up 36%.

  • A swan in Scotland was confirmed with H5N1.

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Wednesday said he expects U.S. payroll data on Friday to reflect a strong economy that will increase federal tax revenues and help to shrink budget shortfalls.

  • Kansas City Federal Reserve President Hoenig was quoted saying the federal funds rate is "close" to where it needs to be.

  • An index of services in Europe stayed at 58.2 in March, the highest in five years.

  • U.K.’s Factory production was down 0.2% in February, weaker than expected.


  • The German government confirmed the deadly strain of Asian bird flu was found on a poultry farm near Leipzig. 10,000 animals will be slaughtered as a first step in trying to stop the spread of the virus.

  • London Copper inventory is at 113,925 tons.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
    Supplies of crude oil were up 2.1 million barrels to 342.8 million barrels.
    Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 4.4 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil supplies were down 1.7 million barrels.

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Quick Overview

  • U.S. consumers' faith in the national economy flagged in the latest week after a short burst of confidence the previous week, ABC News and the Washington Post said on Tuesday.

Monday, April 03, 2006

Growth in federal spending unchecked
The federal government is currently spending 20.8 cents of every $1 the economy generates, up from 18.5 cents in 2001, ..
Some homeowners struggle to keep up with adjustable rates
Of the 7.7 million households who took out ARMs over the past two years to buy or refinance, up to 1 million could lose their homes through foreclosure over the next five years because they won't be able to afford their mortgage payments, and their homes will be worth less than they owe, according to Cagan's research.

The losses to the banking industry, he estimates, will exceed $100 billion. That's less than the damage from the savings-and-loan crisis in the 1990s, which cost the country $150 billion. "It will sting the economy, but it won't break it," he says.

Quick Overview

  • Construction spending rose 0.8% in February to a record high level, the Commerce Department reported Monday.

  • Japan's Tankan survey of manufacturer sentiment fell from 21 to 20.

  • Japan's unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.1% in February.

  • An index of manufacturing activity in the U.K. fell from 51.5 to 50.8 in March.

  • Europe's manufacturing index rose from 54.5 to 56.1 in March, the best in over five.

  • The tiny biodiesel industry received a boost from Big Oil on Monday when a major petroleum refiner, Motiva Enterprises LLC, began blending the soy-based alternative with traditional motor fuel at a Dallas terminal

Friday, March 31, 2006

Fed kills a key inflation gauge

The U.S. Federal Reserve made big news at the end of March. And almost nobody noticed.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. factory orders rose 0.2% in February following a decline the previous month, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

  • U.S. personal incomes were up 0.3% in February

  • Consumer spending rose 0.1% in February, the smallest increase in six months.

  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 86.7 to 88.9 in March.

  • The Chicago Purchasing Manager's index rose from 54.9 to 60.4 in March, the highest reading this year.

  • Australian Retail sales were up 0.7% in February, more than expected.

  • YoY Canada's GDP was up 0.2% in January and up 3.3%

  • YoY Japans consumer prices were up 0.4% in February.


  • The USDA's 2006-2007 planting estimate for:
    Corn is 78.0 million acres, down 5% YoY -- less than expected.
    Soybeans is 76.9 million acres, up 7% YoY and the most on record.
    Wheat is 57.1 million acres, down slightly YoY and the lowest since 1972.
    Cotton is 14.6 million acres, up 3% YoY.

  • As of March 1st, U.S. grain stocks of:
    Corn totaled 6.99 billion bushels, up 3% YoY.
    Soybeans totaled 1.67 billion bushels, up 21% YoY.
    Wheat totaled 972 million bushels, down 1% YoY.

  • The USDA said that there were 60.104 million hogs and pigs in the U.S. as of March 1, up 0.7% YoY.

Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Tuesday, March 21, 2006

Silver ETF moves closer to approval
The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved a rule change for a silver exchange-traded fund in registration from Barclays Global Investor that would allow the product to list on the American Stock Exchange.
The ETF, however, has not yet been cleared to launch by regulators.

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. producer price index fell 1.4% in February, the largest decline since April 2003, as food and fuel prices fell, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Excluding food and energy producer prices were up 0.3%.

  • The Associated Press said that Cyclone Larry ruined A$200 million of Australia's sugarcane crop or roughly 10% of the country's total production.

  • Canada's composite index of leading indicators was up 0.2% in February. Retail sales were up 1.4% in January.

  • YoY Consumer prices in the U.K. were up 2.0% in February.

Monday, March 20, 2006

Quick Overview

  • The Conference Board's index of U.S. leading indicators was down 0.2% in February, to 139.0.

  • With the steady trend of rising core inflation in Japan "here to stay," it's not too early for Japan to change its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, a Bank of Japan official said on Monday.

  • German producer-price inflation speeded up 5.9% in February -- the fastest pace in almost 24 years.

  • The U.K. posted a budget shortfall of 2.27 billion pounds

  • Statistics Canada said that foreign buys of Canadian securities totaled C$3.0 billion in January while Canadians bought C$3.7 billion in foreign securities.

Sunday, March 19, 2006

The Torture Judge
In a startling, ominous decision—ignored by most of the press around the country—Federal District Judge David Trager, in the Eastern District of New York, has dismissed a lawsuit by a Canadian citizen, Maher Arar, who, during a stopover at Kennedy Airport on the way home to Canada after vacation, was kidnapped by CIA agents.
A Peculiar Politician
a naïf who voted against the war in Iraq and the Patriot Act. On principle!

Friday, March 17, 2006

The Boston Legal fan website
The James Spader monologue video "Stick It"can still be seen here.

Quick Overview

  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was weaker than expected at 86.7.

  • U.S. Industrial production was up 0.7% in February.

  • Canada’s wholesale sales were up 1.8% in January.

  • North American-based semiconductor equipment sellers posted a book-to-bill ratio of 1.01 in February, up from 0.97 in January, according to the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group. This is the first time above parity since August of 2004.

  • General Motors Corp.'s disclosures that it lost $2 billion more last year than previously reported and needs more time to sort out accounting errors.
GOP Senators Submit Bill Legalizing Warrentless Spying
Debt on top of debt
Congress raised the limit on the federal government's borrowing by $781 billion yesterday, and then lawmakers voted to spend well over $100 billion on the war in Iraq, hurricane relief, education, health care, transportation and heating assistance for the poor without making offsetting budget cuts.

(DEBT, n. An ingenious substitute for the chain and whip of the slave- driver. The Devil's Dictionary)

Thursday, March 16, 2006

Commodity Strategists: Rally to Resume, Lehman Says
Growth, geopolitical risk and potentially higher energy prices point to the possibility of another rise in commodity prices,'' Malvey, Lehman's New York-based chief global fixed- income strategist, said today in an interview. ``It's too early to conclude that the upward ascent has ended. We are more likely in the midst of a pause.''
Commodity Strategists: Rally to Resume, Lehman Says
``Growth, geopolitical risk and potentially higher energy prices point to the possibility of another rise in commodity prices,'' Malvey, Lehman's New York-based chief global fixed- income strategist, said today in an interview. ``It's too early to conclude that the upward ascent has ended. We are more likely in the midst of a pause.''
Commodity Strategists: Rally to Resume, Lehman Says
``Growth, geopolitical risk and potentially higher energy prices point to the possibility of another rise in commodity prices,'' Malvey, Lehman's New York-based chief global fixed- income strategist, said today in an interview. ``It's too early to conclude that the upward ascent has ended. We are more likely in the midst of a pause.''

Quick Overview

  • The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional business index fell from 15.4 to 12.3 in March

  • U.S. Housing starts were at an annual rate of 2.120 million units in February, down 7.9% from January's pace.

  • Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui sought on Thursday to calm market expectations of an early rate hike, saying the central bank will keep rates near zero for a while despite ending its ultra easy policy last week.

  • Retail sales in the U.K. were up 0.5% in February and up 2.1% YoY,

  • YoY Canada’s consumer prices were up 2.2% in February.

  • YoY consumer prices in the Euro zone were up 2.3% in February .

  • The Swiss National Bank raised rates from 1.00% to 1.25%

  • Assets of the nation's retail money market mutual funds rose by $2.45 billion in the latest week to $856.43 billion, the Investment Company Institute said Thursday.

  • The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were at 5.193 million bags. Up 243,980 bags in February.

  • The US DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 55 billion cubic feet to 1.832 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are up 32%.
Every Man Needs a Theory
While we shared many of their views, we saw the war as a historical necessity. Every empire needs to find a way to look ridiculous; it has to lose its pants, in other words, when the theory holding it up finally disintegrates. Nature loathes a monopoly. A successful empire has a monopoly on the use of organized force. Nature conspires against it, tries to undermine it and eventually ruins it. Every great empire also needs to take Baghdad at one time or another. The English took it. The Mongols took it. The Romans took it several times. Why shouldn't we?

Wouldn't that be a good way to weaken the empire, too? It would cost a fortune, stir up enemies, and tie up the imperial army in a futile campaign against nobody of importance. If you wanted to destroy the U.S. Empire, it would seem to be the perfect project. All nature needed to accomplish her dirty plans was an American administration foolish enough to undertake it. In Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld, she found her stooges.
US backs first-strike attack plan
The US will not shy away from attacking regimes it considers hostile, or groups it believes have nuclear or chemical weapons, the White House has confirmed.

Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Quick Overview

  • The economy headed into the spring season with solid momentum, helping to generate more employment opportunities and keep factories humming, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday.

  • The New York Federal Reserve's regional index increased from 21.0 to 31.2 in March, stronger than expected.

  • The U.S. Treasury said foreign purchases of U.S. securities totaled $78.0 billion.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
    Supplies of crude oil supplies were up 4.8 million barrels to 339.9 million barrels.
    Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 900,000 barrels
    Supplies of heating oil were down 2.8 million barrels.

  • YoY the U.K.'s unemployment rate for November to January increased to 5.0% from 4.7% .

  • Canada's manufacturing shipments were down 0.7% in January to C$51.8 billion. Excluding motor vehicles and parts -- shipments were up 0.3%.

  • YoY China's industrial production was up 16% in the first two months of 2006.

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

When Democracy Looks Like Civil War
Recent studies offer a damning assesment of the Bush administration's policies in Iraq. Thanks to US political and military failures, the country could soon become failed state. Experts warn that it's time to implement an emergency plan before civil war breaks out.
Farmers Face Immigrant Workers Shortage
"I wound up hiring some locals that weren't worth hauling to the field," he said. "It was the worst harvest labor in my life and I've been in the farming business 35 years. But we got it in."

Quick Ovevrview

  • The U.S. current account deficit totaled $224.9 billion in the fourth quarter, more than expected. For 2005, the current account shortfall totaled $804.9 billion.

  • Global trade imbalances are a market-driven phenomenon that government policies can do little to address, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a letter released on Tuesday.

  • February retail sales fell 1.3%, the first drop in six months, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Excluding autos, sales were down 0.4%.

  • Business inventories rose 0.4% in January, and business sales rose by 1.3%, the Commerce Department said Tuesday

  • The U.S. government warned Venezuela on Tuesday it would suspend Venezuelan flights to the United States if Caracas carries out a threat to ban or restrict U.S. carriers flying to Venezuela.

  • The International Coffee Organization estimates the 2006-2007 world coffee production at 121 million bags, up from 107.2 million bags the previous year.

  • The International Energy Agency reduced its forecast of world demand growth in 2006 from 1.78 to 1.49 million barrels a day.

Monday, March 13, 2006

Former top judge says US risks edging near to dictatorship
Sandra Day O'Connor, a Republican-appointed judge who retired last month after 24 years on the supreme court, has said the US is in danger of edging towards dictatorship if the party's rightwingers continue to attack the judiciary.

Quick Overview

  • The Federal Reserve has moved U.S. interest rates up into a zone where policy-makers need to weigh the risk of raising them too far as they debate future moves, a top Fed official said.

  • Japan's GDP growth in the fourth quarter was revised down from an annual rate of 5.5% to 5.4%. Bank of Japan Governor Fukui said that he is not yet ready to discuss raising Japan's interest rate.

  • The U.S. Agriculture Department said on Monday a more advanced test showed an animal that tested "inconclusive" for mad cow disease during the weekend was positive for the illness.

Sunday, March 12, 2006

Search for Katrina's dead stymied by bureaucratic wrangling
There is unfortunately little public pressure on government officials to speed up the search for Katrina's dead, said Peter Scharf, a criminologist at the University of New Orleans.

Saturday, March 11, 2006

The Health Report: Cheerful Men at Lower Risk of Heart Disease

Neil Osterweil, MedPage Today staff writer, reported recently that cheery, optimistic men are less likely to die of heart disease than sour, pessimistic men. When questioned about this theory, Mr. Osterweil cited the most visible people in the news today.

Friday, March 10, 2006

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. government ran a monthly budget deficit of $119.20 billion in February – this is an all-time monthly record. Last years Feb. deficit was 113.9 billion.


  • Canada's unemployment rate improved from 6.6% to 6.4% in February

  • Japan's machinery orders were down 6.2% in January, but up 9.8 YoY.

  • The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
    Corn was lowered from 2.401 to 2.351 billion bushels.
    Soybeans were raised from 555 to 565 million bushels.
    Wheat unchanged at 542 million bushels.
    Sugar was lowered from 1.661 to 1.510 million tons.
    Cotton was lowered from 7.00 to 6.60 million bales.

  • For 2006, the USDA estimates a 5% increase in beef production and a 3% increase in pork production.

  • The USDA reduced its estimate of the Florida orange crop from 158 to 154 million boxes with a projected yield of 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.
'SECRET DOCKET' IN D.C. COURTS
In a study released this week, the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press says that, over a five-year period, D.C. defendants in more than 450 out of 2,600 criminal cases were indicted, tried, prosecuted and sentenced to jail in complete secrecy.
Gitmo: The Worst of the Worst?
On February 16, a British high court judge, Sir Andrew Collins, emphasized: "America's idea of what is torture is not the same as ours and does not appear to coincide with that of most civilized nations."

Thursday, March 09, 2006

FREE SPEECH ON THE RUN IN THE WEST
Much of Europe has painted itself into a corner on the censorship issue. What can Norway say to pro-censorship Muslims when it already has a hate speech law forbidding, among other things, "publicly stirring up one part of the population against another," or any utterance that "threatens, insults or subjects to hatred, persecution or contempt any person or group of persons because of their creed, race, color or national or ethnic origin ... or homosexual bent"? No insulting utterances at all? Since most strong opinions can be construed as insulting (hurting someone's feelings), no insults means no free speech.

Quick Overview

  • The International Monetary Fund is set to raise its forecast for global economic growth this year to 4.8 percent, Germany's Handelsblatt said.

  • U.S. Jobless claims were up 8,000 last week to 303,000, more than expected.

  • U.S. Exports rose from $111.6 to $114.4 billion while imports rose from $176.6 to $182.9 billion.

  • The Bank of Japan voted to end five years of loose monetary policy and eventually move to raise its interest rate from zero.

  • The unemployment rate in Australia improved from 5.3% to 5.2%.

  • Mexican consumer prices rose 0.15 percent in February, less than expected.

  • The U.S. DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 85 billion cubic feet to 1.887 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are up 26%.

  • The Renewable Fuels Association reported the U.S. produced 3.904 billion gallons of ethanol in 2005, an average of 255,000 barrels a day. However demand is running at an even faster pace. December production was short of demand by 310,000 barrels a day. The 95 ethanol plants currently in operation have a 4.3 billion gallons-per-year capacity. There are 34 plants under construction that will add another 2.1 billion gallons a year incapacity

Tuesday, March 07, 2006

Quick Overview

  • For 2005, U.S. business productivity was up 2.9%.


  • The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise official interest rates again for the 15th consecutive time at its next meeting on March 27-28, which will be the first policy meeting chaired by Ben Bernanke.

  • Switzerland's Feb. Jobless rate falls to 3.8%. This is better than expected by markets and a further sign of the gradually improving state of the Swiss labor market.

  • The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by one quarter of a percentage point to 3.75 percent as expected on Tuesday, but signaled that its current tightening cycle may be drawing to a close.


  • The USDA sees declining crop condition ratings in the hard red winter belt. A full 87% of the Texas crop, for example, is rated poor to very poor while Oklahoma's wheat is 70% poor to very poor.




Monday, March 06, 2006



Harry Browne, RIP


The words of Harry Browne

Kind words from some of Harry's friends:

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Factory orders were down 4.5% in January, the biggest monthly drop in over five years. Excluding transport, factory orders were up 1.6% in January.

  • Retail sales volumes in the Euro zone were up 0.9% YoY.

  • YoY Japan's Finance Ministry said that capital spending was up 9.5% in the fourth quarter.

  • Chile's economy expanded 5.5 percent in January.

  • Brazilian exports of ethanol rose to 145.1 million liters in February, up 20.7% from 120.2 million liters a year ago. U.S. demand dominated sales.

  • Gold production in South Africa totaled 296.3 tons in 2005, down 13% YoY and the lowest production since 1923.

  • London inventories of copper are at 121,175 tons.

  • The Florida Citrus Processors said there were 92.3 million gallons of frozen orange juice concentrate in inventory on February 25th, down 35% YoY.
Patriot Act E-Mail Searches Apply to Non-Terrorists, Judges Say

Fidelity Estimates $200,000 Now Needed to Cover Retiree Health Care Costs; Five Percent Increase over 2005 Estimate of $190,000

Friday, March 03, 2006

Mother Of All Tax Shelters
Both supporters and opponents of the proposal said that the enhanced HSAs offer unprecedented tax advantages and may become more attractive than 401(k)s or individual retirement accounts as a way for the richest and healthiest Americans to build savings.

Quick Overview

  • Future moves in official U.S. interest rates will be closely tied to incoming data, but for now the Federal Reserve does not need to push rates beyond neutral, a top central bank official said on Friday.

  • The ISM index of services increased from 56.8 to 60.1

  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped from 91.2 to 86.7

  • YoY consumer prices in Japan were up 0.5% in January.

  • An index of services in the Euro zone increased from 57.0 to 58.2

  • Informa Economics said expects the U.S. to produce 22.45 million bales of cotton in 2006-2007, down from 23.7 million bales the previous year. They forecast 119.7 million bales of world production in 2006-2007.

Thursday, March 02, 2006

Willis Is Mad As Hell...
"I'm sick of answering this [expletive] question," he says. "I'm a Republican only as far as I want a smaller government, I want less government intrusion. I want them to stop [expletive] on my money and your money and tax dollars that we give 50 percent of... every year. I want them to be fiscally responsible and I want these [expletive] lobbyists out of Washington. Do that and I'll say I'm a Republican... I hate the government, OK? I'm a-political. Write that down. I'm not a Republican."