Code of Ethics

Policy blunder:

Food Price Inflation

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• Many more Americans now are going hungry than at the peak of the pandemic aid. Some 24.6 million adults didn’t have enough to eat in early April versus 16.7 million the same month two years ago, the Census Bureau estimates.
• And Republicans are seeking new restrictions on food aid and cuts to safety-net programs as a price for raising the debt ceiling. 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today: 

• The world’s largest battery manufacturer CATL has announced a new “condensed” battery with 500 Wh/kg which it says will go into mass production this year." Batteries with 400 Wh/kg energy density  could enable competitive commercial airplanes. 

• China raised its gold holdings by about 8.09 tons in April, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Sunday. Total stockpiles now sit at about 2,076 tons, after the nation increased reserves by about 120 tons in the five months through March.

• The U.S. self-reported rate of mental health distress is similar to Canada’s (27%) and Sweden’s (24%). And yet… Annual gun homicides: Canada: 300 Sweden: 60 United States: 15,500 It’s the guns.

• Meanwhile:  Texas has banned more books than *any* state in America.

US debt to US GDP ratio = Problematic Zone..

• Only possible Solution: grow GDP (working harder/smarter and or more people working) "and" raise taxes - see below. Top "marginal" rate in 2022 = 37%
• Take a moment and compare the two charts, and you’ll quickly see when the ratio started to go in the wrong direction -(correlation)

Now this from ChatGPT  (Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer): 

There are several ways that a country can lower its debt to GDP ratio: Increase economic growth: When a country's economy grows, its GDP increases, which can help to reduce the debt to GDP ratio. This can be achieved through measures such as increasing productivity, investing in infrastructure, and promoting trade.

Reduce government spending: By reducing government spending, a country can reduce the amount of debt it accumulates and improve its debt to GDP ratio. This can be achieved through measures such as cutting back on unnecessary programs, reducing waste, and streamlining government operations.

Increase tax revenue: By increasing tax revenue, a country can reduce its reliance on borrowing and improve its debt to GDP ratio. This can be achieved through measures such as increasing tax rates, broadening the tax base, and cracking down on tax evasion.

Sell assets: Another way to reduce debt is to sell government assets such as land, buildings, and state-owned companies. This can generate revenue that can be used to pay down debt and improve the debt to GDP ratio.

It is important to note that reducing the debt to GDP ratio often requires a combination of these measures, as well as other structural reforms aimed at promoting long-term economic growth and stability. Additionally, the specific strategies used to address debt and fiscal policy will depend on a country's unique circumstances and political context.

 Circle of AI life:

YoY, US Money supply  diminishing  at fastest pace since the 1930s

Notes Today: 

• Tension is building over the US debt ceiling, spurring investors as far away as Asia to prepare for the worst

• Global sea surfaces hit record temperatures this April...strong El Niño event appearing in the next few months looms over us...

• Currently, our planet contains eight billion humans. It also contains 33 billion chickens. 

• @VodafoneGroup: Our partner @AST_Spacemobile (ASTS) has completed the first two-way voice call using the Bluewalker 3 (#BW3) satellite 🛰️ 🌠It’s the first time anyone has achieved a direct voice connection from space to everyday cellular devices. A next major step in mobile communications.
• With @AST_SpaceMobile, we've been testing the first-of-its-kind space-based cellular broadband network, with mobile phones. See what AT&T engineer, Suja John, says about our future. #ConnectingChangesEverything

 

 

Ongoing solar storm  hits G4-levels

Some weather frogs are predicting a 62% chance of an El Nino event developing during the May-July timeframe. 

• If it does develop it implies a drier/warmer than normal US corn/soybean belt. 
• While Brazil and Argentina could be wetter than normal.
• Drier and hotter in southeast Asia
• Should Soybean production come in some 3% below current estimates the stock / usage ratio would drop to about 3.4% 

•  Now this from Chat GPT: I'm sorry, as an AI language model, I don't have the ability to predict future events with certainty. However, I can tell you that El Niño events are difficult to predict with a high degree of accuracy. El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs irregularly and can vary in strength and duration. It involves changes in ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and can have significant impacts on global weather patterns. While there are some indicators that suggest the possibility of an El Niño event this year, it is impossible to say for certain whether one will occur. It's important to note that even if an El Niño event does occur, its impacts can vary depending on its strength and other atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
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FT: Deaths in China outstripping births for first time since 1960s

Is the headline curse about to diminish Apple?

Notes Today:

• Floridians will be able to carry concealed guns without a permit under a bill DeSantis signed Monday. This will allow anyone who can legally own a gun in Florida to carry one without a permit or training, nor will a background check be required.
• An estimated 26% of Americans ages 18 and older -- about 1 in 4 adults -- suffers from a diagnosable mentaldisorder in a given year. Many people suffer from more than one mental disorder at a given time. In particular, depressive illnesses tend to co-occur with substance use and anxiety disorders.

It is dangerous, “Spock says, “to be ill-informed about facts.”

 

Later

 

S&P 500 Stocks making new 52 week highs (6)

Activision Blizzard Ord Shs	84.39	ATVI.O
Copart Ord Shs	71.43	CPRT.O
Darden Restaurants Ord Shs	152.58	DRI
Hershey Foods Ord Shs	247.86	HSY
Mondelez International Ord Shs Class A	69.04	MDLZ.O
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Ord Shs	820	REGN.O

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Notes Today: 

• In America, a gun is stolen from a car every 15 minutes. Thanks to lax gun laws like permitless carry, firearm thefts from cars are up 225% in the past decade, and are now the largest source of stolen guns, which then become ....  

• American consumers are one step closer to being able to buy chicken grown in bioreactors.

• After the government intervened at SVB, some are wondering if accounts at all banks are implicitly guaranteed. If so, what function does private banking serve? 

• Permit less carry bill passes Florida House, firearm training requirement removed.

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Why is money moving out of bank deposits? – explanatory chart..

 

Notes Today:

• Moody’s sees risk that US banking turmoil can’t be contained. Well, that does not sound very good. 

• WSJ: Elon Musk’s Twitter is now a gigantic $13 billion in debt due to advertisers fleeing to “protect their brands” from Twitter’s toxicity. 

• Yet another crypto dude, Do Kwon, is charged with fraud by US Prosecutors in New York. Could Munger be right and crypto is just an open sewer, full of malicious organisms?