Fed Funds and Inflation -  ways to go..

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

• Just in case you haven’t noticed - the pandemic is not over. Continue to wear your fing mask indoors. 

• Yang Zhang: What we just saw was the making of an All Xi's Men team, the breaking of decade-long rules, and the birth of an unlimited supreme leader. These are not entirely surprising, but Xi's grab of power is still beyond our expectation. He is now a truly modern emperor. (And no women anywhere)

• At the moment only Democrats appear to be upset at the Saudis. Republicans are upset at Joe Biden

• Russia can end this war today by withdrawing all its forces. Simple!

• Stocks rallied in a good way to close out last week in positive fashion. 

• Upcoming quarterly earnings next week for Apple, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft etc.

• Plus, there are several economic reports due out this week, including housing numbers and the latest updated GDP figure. 

• Bloomberg: The largest US banks are warning of trouble ahead in auto loans with prices for used cars falling leaving borrowers at risk of owing more than their cars are worth. 

• Looking at the water levels in the major rivers of the world this year, Mississippi, Rhine, Yangtze and not conclude that there is something serious happening to the climate? (Today: according to the NWS observed water levels, the Miss at Memphis broke its recent new record low and hit -10.80 feet at 3AM. Then at 5AM, it broke its new record, hitting -10.81 feet.) (wheat,corn,beans etc ??)

• Trump was ordered to testify under oath and provide documents to the House of Representatives.

•  US life expectancy falls to lowest since 1996..

• Change in rates

• A survey taken in June has the public confidence in the Supreme Court  at 25%, its lowest level in Gallup’s 50 years of polling.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

HUI - Gold bugs suffering..

NYSE advance decline line 

& volume advance decline line

& NASDQ advance decline line

Euro Dollar Rates

• This was probably the lowest risk trade "ever" – anyone take advantage?

Quick Overview is up to date.

• You may want to note - new lows for the move:

DBC Commodity Index

Gold

S&P (almost)

Lumber

Crude

Yield spread

Bonds

Euro dollars

Dow Industrials

Dow Transports

 

• You may want to note - new highs for the move:

Dollar Index

Notes today:

• The Capesize Index, tracking iron ore and coal shipping, doesn’t look to bad.

 

Recession Signal

.. levels not seen since 2000

 Quick Overview is up to date

 

Mapping America’s Underwater Real Estate .. is a virtually unprecedented disclosure of how much damage climate change can be expected to inflict at the level of individual homes.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

• According to statistics, the US now does 38% of the world’s Bitcoin mining, compared with 3.5% in 2020 -  using more energy than many countries, including Argentina and Australia, according to the report.

• What really surprises us,” Lieutenant General Yevhen Moisiuk, the deputy commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, told me in Kyiv yesterday morning, “is that the Russian troops are not fighting back.” 

Yoni Appelbaum  @YAppelbaum

• Three days after NARA asked Trump for documents, he flew boxes of documents from Florida to New Jersey.

• Recent Capesize

• Quite interesting article: Why is China so Obsessed With Food Security?

Latest Dow Trend Earnings (aka Fed Model)

Small change in Dow Theory Prediction:

Returning to bullish view if

DJIA closes above 34116 "and"

DJTA closes above 15248

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes Today:

• Russia halts gas supplies to Europe until western sanctions lifted. 

• New York’s waters are being reborn

   From whale to oyster to human, animals are coming back

• Recent Panamax:

• Falling US life expectancy:

• Coal new high:

• Pro Farmer estimated the U.S. corn yield at 168.1 bushels per acre on Friday, well below the USDA's forecast of 175.4. 

 US Civilian Unemployment Rate

 Who's dying in the US?