How much the S&P 500 fell during each recession

The Centuries-Old Financial System Better Than DeFi

Hawala is based on trust, while decentralized crypto lending is doomed by blockchain anonymity.

Of the $252 billion of investor funds tied up in DeFi protocols last December, less than $75 billion remain. 

What a remarkable collapse. And despite some forecasts – never went below zero. (was probably one of the lowest risk trades ever)

With investors worldwide looking at a $1.5 trillion in recent cryptocurrencylosses, a blizzard of class-action lawsuits are being prepared. 

• Obviously, expensive digital images of monkeys are going to improve the world immensely. So said a smirking Bill Gates..

• Put your money into something hot and hope it goes big. It’s the American way.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

This must be the quickest mortgage rate climb in history.

 

Trump not looking very healthy these days.

Colorado River turning point

The federal Bureau of Reclamation issued an ultimatum at a meeting with Colorado Basin state officials this week: either figure out how to conserve at least 2-million-acre feet of water in the next 60 days or we’ll do it for you.

25 million people downstream. 

Quick Overview is up to date

Mike Lindell the pillow dude announces tonight that Wal Mart has informed him it will join other retailers and no longer sell his products.

Notes today:

 

• The Federal Reserve's statement on the biggest interest rate hike since 1994, in full.. 

• Russian opposition leader and prominent Putin critic Alexey Navalny has been transferred from a penal colony outside Moscow to a high-security prison with a reputation for abuse and torture.

• The impact of a major storm in the golf this year will be more extreme than usual – worldwide. All five operational liquified natural gas export terminals are located along the Gulf of Mexico coast between Corpus Christi in Texas and Lake Charles in Louisiana — potentially putting them in the path of hurricanes. 

• An estimated 25% of home listings cut their asking prices. 

• SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said that the recent crash in prices for crypto has underscored the need to better regulate the digital-asset industry – no kidding, who would have thought.

• Jan. 6th committee has emails from Justice  Thomas' wife Ginni to Trump attorney John Eastman — verifying that her efforts to overturn the election were far more extensive than previously known.

• (Reuters) - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday released new warnings for synthetic pollutants in drinking water known as "forever chemicals" saying the toxins can still be harmful even at levels so low they are not detectable.

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The FED has never been this far behind inflation – never! chart

In inflationary times the green line needs to be mostly ABOVE the red line.

So, according to the chart, Fed Funds need to get into the neighborhood of 9%. Now wouldn’t that be fun..

Rediscovered antique fear / greed chart

Quick Overview is up to date 

Japan's inflation looks (to me) as though it is ready to break out. 

Notes today:

• Russian soldiers forced to eat dogs due to poor provisions supplies

• The FOMC is expected to raise interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday. 

• Erdogan to talk to Putin, on grain exports next week. And according to Erdogan they want to discuss unblocking grain exports from Ukrainian seaports. Currently, some 25 million tons of grain are being blocked by Russian militaries in Ukraine. 

• Some sort of temporary agreement may have been reached by a bipartisan coalition of US senators on gun safety, mental health, and school safety provisions. (Not much, but every little bit helps the old lady said as she peed in the ocean)

America’s Inequality Problem Just Improved for the First Time in a Generation

Notes today 

• Mariupol mayor: Russia demolished 1,300 high-rise buildings in city without removing dead bodies of residents.

• THOMPSON & CHENEY OPENING STATEMENTS AT SELECT COMMITTEE HEARING  (The radical right seems quite upset that so many (20 Million) Americans watched the primetime January 6th hearings)

• Goldman Sachs says energy prices are not high enough to curb demand. 

• Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have powerful new medicines for weight loss. Wall Street predicts massive sales. 

• US Real Estate: mortgage holders gained $2.8 trillion in tappable equity over the past 12 months - a 34% increase that equates to more than $207,000 in equity available per borrower. 

• Sixty percent of housing experts polled by Zillow don’t believe the housing market is in a bubble, compared to 32% who do. 

• The median monthly asking rent in the U.S. exceeded $2K for the first time in May, rising 15% Y/Y to $2,002, Redfin said. 

• Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63 The heavy weapon crisis in Ukraine has reached a critical juncture. The UK and Poland are going above and beyond. Scholz is delaying and lying. The US still won't make its war goals clear and is sending less than promised and much less than Ukraine needs. 

• Tesla investigation deepens after more than a dozen US ‘Autopilot’ crashes 

• Ginni Thomas (wife of Supreme ClarenceThomas) pressured a staggering 29 Republican lawmakers in Arizona to overturn the 2020 election,

US Consumer confidence falls to the lowest level on record

Inflation (40 year high)12 month % changes selected categories