Notes today:

 

• The U.S. Dept. of HomelandSecurity warned on Tuesday that people in online forums known for hosting violent extremist content are lauding the mass shooting in Uvalde, Texas—and are pushing others to commit further attacks. 

• Russia Destroys Second Largest Grain Terminal In Ukraine. 

• The World Bank cut its forecast for global economic expansion in 2022 further, warning that several years of above-average inflation and below-average growth lie ahead, with the pain of stagflation potentially lasting for several years. 

• Economist: Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor from 2005 to 2021, defended her record of dealing with Vladimir Putin. Mrs Merkel has been criticised for pressing ahead with the now-mothballed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline meant to link Germany and Russia—but trade with Russia “could not be ignored”, she said. She defended her opposition to a plan from 2008 to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, which, she said, would have been tantamount to a “declaration of war”.
• There are countries we are waiting for delivery from and countries we are tired of waiting for,”Germany belongs to the second group.” - Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba 

• WhatsApp has until July to show that a privacy policy update introduced in January complies with EU consumer law, the European Commission said on Wednesday, in a case prompted by complaints from consumer bodies across Europe.

• Southern has now become the third-largest greenhouse gas polluter in the US due to its fleet of coal and gas-burning power plants, and until relatively recently was still denying the science behind global temperature rise.

 

 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Real Estate: National Payment to Income Ratio

Later

What Are Financial Market Stress Indexes Showing?

This divergence could be signaling an elevated level of financial market risk—and thus higher levels of financial market stress—that normally accompanies periods of Fed tightening.

 

When Crypto's Tulipmania Meets The Real Economy

They often involve complex financial structures stringing together several Delaware-based LLCs with little legal recourse and high counterparty risk. 

see Taleb below

or check out Molly White

 Latest Fed Model

Current Fear

Notes today:

 

• Canadian dollar rallies as current account surplus hits 14-year high 

• At this point, any presentation of bitcoin as an inflation hedge, crisis protection, transactional currency, or repository of value is purely hallucinatory & deserves locking up the perpetrator to prevent further self-harm.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb (author of Black Swan) BitCoin to 0

Speculators have plowed more than 40 Billion into crypto start ups since 2021

• Vietnam Tourist Arrivals Climb 1,274% YoY in May 

• Europe’s unity ‘crumbling’ on Russia sanctions, Germany warns. 

• India has decided to restrict the sale of sugar on international markets, just days after it banned wheat exports. 

Realtor .com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 9% YoY  (real estate)

Quick Overview is up to date

 

Later

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today:

• A $5 Trillion ‘Wealth Shock’ Is Cracking Americans’ Nest Eggs

• Economist: Almost 40% of African-Americans under 40 own cryptocurrency, compared with 29% of whites. 

• Lagarde reiterated her concerns over cryptocurrencies & desire for regulation: "My very humble assessment is that it is worth nothing, it is based on nothing, there is no underlying asset to act as an anchor of safety," Lagarde said in an interview on Dutch TV. 

• Russia bans 963 Americans, including Biden and Harris — but not Trump!
• “Russia also named former senators John McCain, Harry M. Reid, and Orrin G. Hatch as among the current or ex-lawmakers barred from entering the country, even though they are all dead.” 

• Crashing Crypto: Is This Time Different? (Krugman)  

Well, maybe the crypto skeptics are wrong. But on the question of folly and gullibility, the answer is yes, we can.

For as long as the price of an offset remains below $20, cattle farming in the Amazon will remain attractive.

 

Later 

 

Quick Overview is up to date

 

‘Forever chemicals’ may have polluted 20m acres of US cropland, study says

PFAS-tainted sewage sludge is used as fertilizer in fields and report finds that about 20m acres of cropland could be contaminated

Our Dow Theory Opinion:

On 2/22/2022 our view of Dow Theory turned to bearish . Currently our view will return to bullish when the DJI closes above 35342, and the DJT close above 16577.

A looooooooong term look at U.S. Real Estate  

Euro Area Consumer Confidence