Happy Holidays

Conquest Is for Losers
Never mind shock and awe: In the modern world, conquest is for losers.

Earth faces sixth ‘great extinction’ with 41% of amphibians set to go the way of the dodo As ecologist Paul Ehrlich has put it: “In pushing other species to extinction, humanity is busy sawing off the limb on which it perches.”

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• Swiss Gold Referendum Fails .. 78% vote against. 

•  China's official PMI slips to 50.3 in November.. below forecast. 

• Investors are trimming inflation hedges by pull $17bn from commodity index products 

•  The European Central Bank said that it has begun buying asset-backed securities, as it seeks to get banks to lend and revive the economy. The purchases are expected to last for two years. 

• China's central bank has cut interest rates on its one-year deposit rate by 0.25%, and its one-year loan rate by 0.4 %. The Bank also said it will allow more flexibility in deposit rates. 

•  Kraft Foods Group (KRFT) raised dividends 4.7% 

•  Johnson Controls (JCI) raised its quarterly dividend by 18% 

•  Intel (INTC) increased its dividend to 96 cents a share - up 6 cents 

•  (FT) US companies will buy $450bn of their stock this year 

•  Among the more than 100 experts surveyed in the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, a majority said they don't expect the housing market to normalize for at least three more years....
•  (Zillow) Millions of Potential New Households Waiting Out the Recovery Many Americans moved in together as housing costs outpaced income over the last decade, resulting in fewer households; if these doubled-up households divide, housing demand will pick up, according to Zillow - 
• More than a third of U.S. adults were living with roommates or adult family members in 2012, up from 25.4 percent in 2000. - 
• Household size has risen from 1.75 adults in 2000 to 1.83 adults in 2012. - 
• In all, the U.S. lost 5.4 million households to doubling up. - 
• The most potential new households are in places where rent has skyrocketed during the housing recovery, such as some large markets in California and Florida. 
•  The 2014 National Association of Realtor's: The long-term average in this survey, dating back to 1981, shows that four out of 10 purchases are from first-time home buyers. In this year’s survey, the share of first-time buyers* dropped 5 percentage points from a year ago to 33 percent, representing the lowest share since 1987 (30 percent).  
•  Buyers searching for real estate will find more homes for sale overall, but supply of lower-priced homes is growing more slowly than high-priced homes in most of the country. 

• Uranium..Largest weekly price increases since 1996 

•  UK, US and Swiss authorities have fined RBS, HSBC, Citigroup, JP Morgan and UBS a total of more than £2bn over failings that led to the manipulation of the $5.3 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market. 

•  The USDA forecasts a drop of 1.41m tonnes in global sugar inventories in 2014-15 – a decline which would be the first since 2009-10. 

•  Why did 37 million bees fall out of the sky? Mystery of mass insect death puzzles experts  

•  (The Independent) As host of the G20 summit of world leaders in Brisbane this weekend, Australia had been looking forward to its moment in the sun. However, Tony Abbott’s government risks becoming an international laughing stock, thanks to its attempts to block discussion of climate change...Mr Abbott – who once dismissed climate change science as “absolute crap” – horrified scientists and environmentalists last month when he described coal as “good for humanity” while opening a new mine in Queensland. 

•  (Reuters) - The U.S. military's ability to stay ahead of technology advances by other countries and respond to multiple crises around the world is already in jeopardy and will get worse unless mandatory budget cuts are reversed, top U.S. officials warned 

•  Effective January 17, all research funded in whole or in part by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation must be published in journals that are immediately free-to-access, under a Creative Commons Attribution-only license

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•  If the DJIA closes above 17355 "and" the DJTA closes above 8720 InvestmentTools.com view of Dow Theory returns to bullish. 

• Germany: retail sales in Europe's biggest economy slumped by 3.2% MoM in September. It was the sharpest drop since May 2007, and led by a fall in sales in textiles and clothes which declined by 7.35. 

•  Italian national statistics institute said that 3.2 million citizens were unemployed in September, the highest level since 2004.The number of the jobless was 48,000 higher in September than in August and 58,000 up on the same month in 2013. Thus the unemployment rate in the country climbed back up to a record level of 12.6%. The jobless rate among people aged between 15 and 24 was 42.9%, 1.9% higher than in September 2013. 

•  Britain's consumer confidence slipped from minus one (-1) in September to -2 in October.

•  (Pritchard) The Bank of Japan is mopping up the country's vast debt and driving down the yen in a radical experiment in modern global finance 

•  Japan's consumer prices for September rose 3.0% 

• YoY Japan's household spending in September dropped 5.6% YoY (Pritchard)

• The world has changed abruptly for investors as the US Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China both brush aside deflation warnings and press ahead with monetary tightening 

•  (WSJ) China is taking a step toward easing its grip on credit cards, potentially resolving a long-running trade dispute with the U.S. and allowing foreign companies such as Visa, MasterCard and other electronic-payment processors to have a greater presence there. 

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•  The U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.5% in Q3

•  (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve ended its monthly bond purchase program and signaled confidence the U.S. economic recovery would remain on track despite signs of a slowdown in many parts of the global economy. 

•  U.S Home values are still rising in most markets, but the rate of appreciation has slowed considerably, making the housing market less competitive for buyers, according to Zillow 
• The U.S. housing market rebounded in September as home sales rose to their highest level of the year. After dipping in August, sales of previously owned homes climbed 2.4% in September to a annual rate of 5.17 million. 

•  The Central Bank of Brazil's raised the country's annual basic interest rate from 11% to 11.25%, the highest level since November 2011. 

•  Spain’s unemployment rate fell to 23.7% from 24.5% in Q3, the lowest since the end of 2011 as its economy turned into one of the fastest-growing in the euro region. 

•  Little fish have never had it so good, according to research showing how mankind’s taste for big fish such as tuna and shark is allowing the anchovy and sardine to flourish.

World economy so damaged it may need permanent QE

Markets are realising that the five-and-a-half year recovery since the financial crisis may already be over, says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

With the close on 10/13/2014 of Dow Transports at 7717.69, and Dow Industrials at 16321.07, IT’s opinion of Dow Theory is now bearish.

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• The U.S. adds 248,000 new jobs in Sept. - the jobless rate falls to 5.9 % 

• U.S., Brazil strike new deal to end decade-old cotton trade dispute 

• Chinas PMI of non-manufacturing sectors out at 54% last month, down 0.4% from August. 

• The Aral Sea, once the fourth largest lake in the world, is now completely dry…………… 

•  The ISM said its manufacturing index dropped to 56.6% last month from a three-month high of 59% in August 

• The IEA says world to add 200 gigawatts of solar power every year from 2025 onwards under the right policies, more than the entire stock in the world today. 

• Eurozone jobless rate stable at 11.5% in August 

• Eurozone annual inflation down to 0.3% in September 

• U.S. airline stocks fell as investors fretted that news of a first Ebola case in Texas would discourage people from flying. 

• U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.5% in August 

• The U.S. pending home sales index dropped 1 % after a 3.2% increase in July, the National Association of Realtors said. 

• Earth lost 50% of its wildlife in the past 40 years, says WWF Species across land, rivers and seas decimated as humans kill for food in unsustainable numbers and destroy habitats 

• The forest elephant population has fallen by more than 60% since 2002 

• Fracking will take place below Britons’ homes without their permission 

• Chinas preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC was at 50.5, matching the highest estimates in a Bloomberg survey 

•  U.S. existing-home sales fell 1.8% in August 

• S. Korea's national debt rises to 34.3 pct of GDP 

•  G20 vows to boost global economic growth by 1.8 pct 

• Brazil lowers growth forecast to 0.9% 

• (Reuters) - New international tax rules proposed could eliminate structures that have allowed companies such as Google Inc and Amazon.com Inc to shave billions of dollars off their tax bills....The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) announced a series of measures that, if implemented by members, could stop companies from employing many commonly-used practices to shift profits into tax havens. 

• While America spends $76,000 per soldier each year, EU states are down to $18,000, largely earmarked for pay and pensions, according to the Institute for Statecraft. Almost nothing is being spent on new equipment. Europe has slashed defence budgets by $70bn over the past two years even as Russia blitzes $600bn on war-fighting capabilities by 2020 and turns itself into a militarised state, a Sparta with nuclear weapons. 

Next Update Aug. 31 / Sep. 1

Next Update Aug. 3

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• Last month was the hottest May in terms of global surface temperature in a historical record that extends back 130 years, according to NASA 

• Scientists want two commonly used pesticides banned around the world for helping cause the mass deaths of bees and harming the planet's ecosystem. A panel of independent scientists, operating as the Task Force on Systemic Pesticides, found the pesticides neonicotinoids and fipronil are harming the environment. 

• U.S. consumer confidence continued to improve in June, with the consumer confidence index rising to 85.2 from 82.2 in May - the highest level since January 2008. 
• U.S. economy contracts 2.9% in Q1 
• U.S. house prices kept flat in April amid a cooling housing market, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported. Compared with the same period of 2013, U.S. house prices have increased 5.9%. 

• Output in China's steel industry has continued to rise and prices continue to fall, as the government struggles to reduce capacity in the sector. 

• Spain's annual inflation stands at 0.1 % in June 

• Japan's consumer prices in May soared 3.4% YoY, the biggest increase in more than three decades. 
• Japan's unemployment rate in May improves to 3.5% 

• Researchers believe they have found a way of overcoming one of the most serious limitations of the next generation of solar panels, which are based on toxic cadmium chloride, by simply adding magnesium chloride, an abundant salt found in seawater. 

• People unwittingly become more racially aware and less generous towards those of a different skin tone when they feel financially squeezed, according to a study showing how racism thrives in an economic recession. 

• Facebook has been experimenting on us. A new paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reveals that Facebook intentionally manipulated the news feeds of almost 700,000 users in order to study “emotional contagion through social networks.” 
•  (“If you’re not paying for something, you’re not the customer; you’re the product being sold.”)

Next Update June 29

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• (FT) Should the global oil market lose all of Iraq’s exports, traders and analysts reckon it would add at least $40-$50 to a barrel of oil 

• "Eugene Goostman", a computer program developed to simulate a 13-year-old boy, managed to convince 33% of the judges that it was human and therefore passing the Turing test.

• Microsoft's top lawyer says the fallout of the NSA spying scandal is "getting worse," and carries grim implications for US tech companies. 

• Creepier and creepier: Google subsidiary Nest is acquiring video monitoring company Dropcam for $555 million in an effort to further push their influence into  every home to collect ever more data on users and their habits... 
• (“If you’re not paying for something, you’re not the customer; you’re the product being sold.”) 

•  (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard) Mao Daqing from Vanke - China's top developer - says total land value in Beijing has been bid up to such extremes that it’s on paper worth 61.6% of America's GDP. The figure was 63.% for Tokyo at the peak of the bubble in 1990. "A dangerous level," he says.

• According to S&P the Chinese corporate bond market has overtaken the United States as the world’s biggest and is set to soak up a third of global company debt needs over the next five years. 

• Wealth management products (WMPs) have been booming in China in the past few years, totaling 12.8 trillion yuan (about 2.1 trillion U.S. dollars) by the end of May. 

• More than half of people between the age of 21 and 36 have their savings parked in cash, according to a new study by the Brookings Institution, reflecting extreme risk-aversion by the so-called millennial generation. 

•  There are more than 1.1 million homeless children and youth enrolled in US public schools, according to the Department of Education. 

• (FT) The gold ‘fix’, a twice-daily auction-style process run by four investment banks, has come in for increasing criticism for its lack of transparency. 

• (The Guardian) British public wrongly believe rich pay most in tax, new research shows. The poorest 10% of households pay eight percentage points more of their income in all taxes than the richest – 43% compared to 35%,. 

• Less than 20 years ago, one billion monarchs migrated to Mexico for the winter. This year, only 3.5 % of that number made the journey. 

• Four in 10 new oil and gas wells near national forests and fragile watersheds or otherwise identified as higher pollution risks escape federal inspection, unchecked by an agency struggling to keep pace ... 

• Miracle Crop: India's Quest to End World Hunger Over one third of humanity is undernourished. Now a group of scientists are experimenting with specially-bred crops, and hoping to launch a new Green Revolution -- but controversy is brewing 

• (FT) traders think that processing plants built to feed rising chocolate consumption in countries including India and China have added to demand for cocoa beans.

Next Update June 29

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• (NYT) “We just get The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Times,” superlative Justice Scalia told New York magazine in September. He canceled his subscription to The Washington Post, he said, because it was “slanted and often nasty” and “shrilly liberal.” He said he did not read The New York Times either “I get most of my news, probably, driving back and forth to work, on the radio,” he said. “Talk guys, usually. 

• The “fine” Senator from Florida Marco Rubio — much of whose state is fated to sink beneath the waves — does not believe human activity is causing climate change... 

•  Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rose by more than expected 6.4% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 units, ending two months of declines. March's sales were revised up to 407,000 units from a previously reported 384,000 units. YoY sales were down 4.2%. Inventory of new houses rose 0.5% to 192,000 units - the highest level since November 2010. At April's sales pace it would take 5.3 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 5.6 months in March. 
• YoY the median price of a new home last month fell 1.3% to $275,800. 
•  Existing home sales climbed 1.3% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.65 million. 

• When it meets on June 6, SPIEGEL has learned, the European Central Bank may implement a negative interest rate for financial institutions seeking to park their money at the Frankfurt powerhouse. The move is aimed at spurring loans. 

• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the Fed is closer to its goals for employment and inflation than at any time in five years, helping to warrant its tapering of record stimulus. 

• U.S. Construction on new U.S. homes rose in April at the fastest pace in five months, rising 13.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.07 million, led by the apartment category. 

• The Internal Revenue Service collected $5.7 billion in 2011 from penalties. That’s because Americans took out about $57 billion from retirement funds before they were supposed to.

•  Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought a stake in Verizon (VZ), according to the company's 13F filing for 2014's first quarter. Berkshire owned 11 million shares in the telecom at the end of March, versus none at the end of December.. 

• (Reuters) - Intel Corp's next-generation Broadwell processors will ship in time to be used in personal computers sold during the holiday season but probably won't be available for back-to-school shopping, Chief Executive Brian Krzanich said. 

• The city of Portland, Ore., said it had started divesting itself of holdings in Wal-Mart (WMT) because of its labor practices. 

• (Pritchard) Outflows from Russia since the Ukraine crisis erupted may be four times higher than admitted by Kremlin 

•  (Pritchard) The Chinese central bank has ordered 15 commercial banks to boost loans to first-time buyers 

•  US soybean ending stocks to usage at the end of 2013/14 is currently seen at a record tight 3.8%, expanding to a more comfortable 9.6% by the end of 2014/15.so 
•  World Soybean ending stocks in 2014/15 are anticipated to be almost 12 MMT above the previous record high at 82.23 MMT. 

• The current 13/2014 corn stocks-to-use ratio of 8.4% is the 3rd lowest since 2000 behind 11/12 and 12/13. 
•  The USDA estimates 2014/15 US corn ending stocks to usage rising to 12.9%. 
• World ending stocks to usage in 2014/15 is seen at 18.8%. 

• Fears of a mismatch between supply and demand and slowing industrial growth in China have had a significant impact on the value of iron ore. 

• The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) predicts that coffee production across Latin America will fall by as much as 15 to 40 percent in the coming years because of Coffee rust, or roya. 

•  Silver fix dies after 120 years: The move follows increased scrutiny by European and US regulators into precious metals price-setting following the Libor scandal and forex probe. 

• Scientists from the Harvard University have found the reason behind the HoneBees disappearance. The researchers have blamed the increased usage of insecticides for the issue. The use of two neonicotinoids led to the death of half the colonies of bees, researchers showed. However, those bees who were in the untreated colonies didn’t disappear. Neonicotinoids is the most widely used class of insecticide in the world. 

• (Businesswire) Nathan Han of Boston Wins US$75,000 Top Prize at Intel International Science and Engineering Fair NEWS HIGHLIGHTS -- The world's largest high school science research competition, the Intel International Science and Engineering Fair, a program of Society for Science & the Public, announced its top winners in Los Angeles. – 
• Nathan Han of Boston received the Gordon E. Moore Award, a US$75,000 prize named in honor of the Intel co-founder and fellow scientist. -- Two Intel Foundation Young Scientist Awards winners -- 
• Lennart Kleinwort of Germany and Shannon Lee of Singapore -- each received prizes of US$50,000 from the Intel Foundation. 
• Nathan Han, 15, of Boston was awarded first place for developing a machine learning software tool to study mutations of a gene linked to breast cancer at this year's Intel International Science and Engineering Fair, a program of Society for Science & the Public. Using data from publicly available databases, Han examined detailed characteristics of multiple mutations of the BRCA1 tumor suppressor gene in order to "teach" his software to differentiate between mutations that cause disease and those that do not. His tool exhibits an 81 percent accuracy rate and could be used to more accurately identify cancer threats from BRCA1 gene mutations. Han received the Gordon E. Moore Award of US$75,000, named in honor of the Intel co-founder and fellow scientist. 
•  Lennart Kleinwort, 15, of Germany received one of two Intel Foundation Young Scientist Awards of US$50,000. Kleinwort developed a new mathematical tool for smartphones and tablets that brings capabilities to hand-held devices that previously required more sophisticated and expensive computing tools. His app allows users to hand draw curves, lines and geometric figures on the touch screen and watch the system render them into shapes and equations that can then be manipulated at will. 
•  Shannon Xinjing Lee, 17, of Singapore received the other Intel Foundation Young Scientist Award of US$50,000 for developing a novel electrocatalyst that may be used for batteries of the future. Researchers have been looking for ways to make rechargeable zinc-air batteries practical, as they would be safer, lighter in weight, and have six times the energy density of lithium ion batteries, making them ideal for hybrid vehicles. Lee found that her activated carbon catalyst, which she made entirely from carbonized Chinese eggplant, greatly out-performed a more sophisticated commercial catalyst in stability and longevity tests and will be environmentally friendly and inexpensive to produce. "The world needs more scientists, makers and entrepreneurs to create jobs, drive economic growth and solve pressing global challenges," said Wendy Hawkins, executive director of the Intel Foundation. "Intel believes that young people are the key to innovation, and we hope that these winners inspire more students to get involved in science, technology, engineering and math, the foundation for creativity." This year's Intel International Science and Engineering Fair featured more than 1,700 young scientists selected from 435 affiliate fairs in more than 70 countries, regions and territories. In addition to the top winners, more than 500 finalists received awards and prizes for their innovative research, including 17 "Best of Category" winners, who each received a US$5,000 prize.

Next Update May 25

East Antarctica melt could cause a global coastal destruction Parts of the vast ice sheet of East Antarctica – which collectively holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 53 metres – could begin an irreversible slide into the sea this century, causing an unstoppable process of global coastal destruction, scientists have warned.

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• Springfield, MO, breaks May 4 high temp record with 91 F. Old record: 89, set in 1952
• Earliest 100F ever in Wichita KS today..
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• Tehran says it is capable of shipping "big volumes" of gas to Europe if required as Russia threatens Ukraine's energy supplies. 
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• PMI for China's non-manufacturing sector gained 0.3 % MoM to 54.8 % in April. 

• Warren Buffett calls for greater punishment for Wall Street rule breakers: The Billionaire says authorities should come down harder on individuals rather than the companies that employ them.. 
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• (AP) Older mice got stronger, exercised longer and performed better mentally after they were injected with blood from young mice, or even just with a substance (protein called GDF11 ) that's more abundant in younger blood, U.S. researchers found.. 
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•  (Bloomberg) Gaming revenue from the six casino operators in Macau, the only place in China where casinos are legal, rose 11% to 31.3 billion patacas ($3.92 billion) in April, Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau said. 
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• U.S. job growth increased at its fastest pace in more than two years in April, suggesting a sharp rebound in economic activity early in the second quarter. 
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•  U.S. Fed announced that it would continue to reduce the amount of money it is pumping into the recovery, as it sees consistent improvement in the economy. 
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• A ranking of the competitiveness of the world's top 25 exporting countries says the United States is once again a "rising star” and has it at #2 – after China. 
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• U.S. durable goods orders rise 2.6% in March suggesting strength in manufacturing and the broader economy at the end of the first quarter. 
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• The National Endowment for Financial Education released a poll that showed only 13% of Americans considered home ownership as their “top long term financial goal,” down from 17% in 2011. 
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•  In Q1 mortgage lending declined to the lowest level in 14 years. 
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• The FCC’s chairman Tom Wheeler has confirmed reports that proposed changes to internet governance will abandon net neutrality principles and says companies can charge extra for some types of traffic so long as it's "commercially reasonable."… 
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• Per IMF, the economic growth in Asia is projected to remain steady at 5.45% in 2014 and 5.5% in 2015 
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• BOJ holds pat on further easing, on course for 2% inflation target. 
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• Japan's March jobless rate steady at 3.6% (Guardian) 
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• China says more than half of its groundwater is polluted: Number of groundwater sites of poor or extremely poor quality rose to 59.6%. 
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• British GDP grows 0.8% in Q1 2014 
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• Greece sells five-year bonds at 4.5% rate

Next Update May 4

Next Update April 13