We’re on strike until March 2nd

QUICK OVERVIEW

• (MarketWatch) U.S. stocks end the week and the month with deep losses following a selloff on Friday, which was prompted by disappointing earnings, renewed fears over deflation in the euro zone and a continuing rout in emerging markets.
• Richard Russell, of Dow Theory Letters fame, notes that every down January since 1950 has been followed by a bear market. (Hulbert's view).

• Cocoa futures rose to a more than 28-month high  on concerns that supplies for the key chocolate ingredient will not keep up with demand this year. Cocoa-bean stockpiles monitored by ICE Futures U.S. dropped 2.9% last week, adding to supply concerns. The current estimates have production 105,000 metric tons smaller than demand in the year started Oct. 1, followed by a shortage of 74,000 tons the next season.

• The U.S. government and leading Internet companies  announced a compromise that will allow those companies to reveal how often they are ordered to turn over customer information in national security investigations.
• U.S. pending home sales fell in December to the lowest level in more than two years, a fresh sign that the housing recovery lost momentum. The NAR said its index of pending home sales, which measures the number of contracts that have been signed but not yet closed for purchasing previously owned homes, fell 8.7% to 92.4 in December, the lowest level since October 2011.
• Representing oil addicts, a U.S. State department study says that the Keystone XL pipeline would have little impact on tar-sands use. A different opinion thinks that the pipeline would probably increasing supply, decrease prices and therefore drive up global oil consumption.
• Ban Ki- moon on Friday announced the appointment of the former New York City mayor Bloomberg as his special envoy for cities and climate change.
• Honda Motor Co expects to sell a record 1.6 million cars in the United States, its biggest market, this calendar year, up 5 percent from 1.525 million sold in 2013.

• Britain’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected on Tuesday to reveal the economy grew by 0.7% in the final three months of 2013 following growth of 0.8% in the third quarter. This would equate to an overall expansion of 1.9% for 2013, much stronger than the 0.3pc expansion in 2012. However, output would remain 1.3pc below its pre-recession peak.

• With the end of QE in the West and changes in Chinese fiscal policies "forcing up the cost of capital across emerging markets asset class" the tide is going out on emerging markets - so warns Fidelity.
• China's PMI for the manufacturing sector dropped to five-month low to 50.5 % in January
• BEIJING (AP) Authorities in eastern China have banned live poultry sales after an increase in the number of people infected with the H7N9 strain of bird flu, state media reported.

• India's central bank raised the repo rate by a quarter point to 8%, citing inflationary threats..

• (MarketWatch) -- Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher defended the U.S. central bank for charges from overseas that it was recklessly ignoring the impact of tapering on other countries. The Fed's moves have been one factor in a spike of turbulence in emerging markets. "Some believe we are the central bank of the world and should conduct policy accordingly. We are the central bank of America," Fisher said in a speech in Forth Worth, Texas, according to Dow Jones. Fisher added that other nations have their own central banks with their own responsibilities.
• He wants the U.S. central bank to end its economic-stimulus program as soon as possible, but he says the Fed can't go from "Wild Turkey to cold turkey overnight..

• Argentina's government limited monthly dollar purchases by Argentines to $2,000 (Ms Kirchner went missing). .

Neglected Topic’ Winner: Climate Change HERE’S a scary fact about America: We’re much more likely to believe that there are signs that aliens have visited Earth (77 percent) than that humans are causing climate change (44 percent). ..
In 1997, there was no significant gap between Republicans and Democrats in thinking about climate change. These days, 66 percent of Democrats say human activity is the main cause of global warming; 24 percent of Republicans say so.

QUICK OVERVIEW

• U.S. Consumer sentiment declined in January, falling to a reading of 80.4 from 82.5 in December.
• December U.S. industrial production rose 0.3%
• Construction on new U.S. homes fell 9.8% in December, pulling back after a surge in November

• Jerry Brown  will use a morning news conference in San Francisco on Friday to declare a drought emergency amid one of the driest winters on record

• Intel said the chip giant had "a solid fourth quarter with signs of stabilization in the PC segment," shares were down more than 3% after-hours.
• (MarketWatch) - Intel Corp. was upgraded to overweight from neutral by J.P. Morgan analyst Christopher Danely who said he was "making a leap of faith" on PCs in 2014 and the chip giant's new Chief Executive Brian Krzanich.

• The caffeine equivalent to that in two cups of coffee can boost performance on a memory test.

• The World Bank raised its global growth forecasts as the easing of austerity policies in advanced economies supports their recovery, boosting prospects for developing markets' exports.

• Brussels is demanding that even foreigners who have never worked in Germany should have access to the country's unemployment benefits if they hail from an EU member state. The EU is firing Germany's already overheated immigration debate.

• Confidence in Australia's property and construction industry has surged to a new record high

• (Reuters) - U.S. municipal bond funds reported $103.3 million of net inflows in the week ended January 15, compared with $19 million in outflows in the previous week

• How Bill Gates is helping KFC take over Africa

• YoY China’s M2 Money supply rose 13.6%
• Property prices in China ended 2013 still red hot despite repeated government efforts to cool the sector, but the rises are expected to soften this year as more targeted curbs come into place
• Twenty years ago, China exported six cars. Last year it exported a million.

• Paramount will stop releasing major motion pictures on 35-millimeter film, becoming the first big Hollywood studio to go digital-only.

• Over 250 dolphins are being held captive in a cove on the coast of Japan, waiting for either a life in captivity, or slaughter

• (Reuters) - President Barack Obama banned U.S. eavesdropping on the leaders of close friends and allies on Friday and began reining in the vast collection of Americans' phone data in a series of limited reforms triggered by Edward Snowden's revelations.

• Standard & Poor's raised the outlook on California's ratings to positive from stable and affirmed the state's 'A' long-term rating.

• KINGSTON, Jamaica (AP) A mosquito-borne virus appears to be spreading quickly in the Caribbean during the winter tourism season just weeks after epidemiologists first found local transmission occurring in the French dependency of St. Martin. Scientists said that St. Martin now has as many as 200 cases of chikungunya, a virus found mainly in Africa and Asia that can cause a debilitating but rarely fatal sickness with fever, rash, fatigue and intense muscle and joint pain.

• (Spiegel)It has now been 100 years since the outbreak of World War I, but the European catastrophe remains relevant today. As the Continent looks back this year, old wounds could once again be rubbed raw.

• Italian joblessness has hit a fresh high of 12.7% in November, up from October’s 12.5% and the highest on record. Youth unemployment, at 41.6%, is also at an all-time high.

• A new memo has emerged that provides clear evidence that in 1976 Kissinger gave Argentina's neo-fascist military junta the "green light" for the dirty war it was conducting against civilian and militant leftists that resulted in the disappearance—that is, deaths—of an estimated 30,000 people.

QUICK OVERVIEW

• The S&P 500 ended the year at an all-time high (but not quite inflation adjusted) – its largest percentage gain since 1997. DJ Industrials are at an all-time high - also inflation adjusted.

• NSA's Secret Toolbox: Unit Offers Spy Gadgets for Every Need. The NSA has a secret unit that produces special equipment ranging from spyware for computers and cell phones to listening posts and USB sticks that work as bugging devices. Here are some excerpts from the intelligence agency's own catalog.

• In an unprecedented ruling, a judge reviewing whether Xcel Energy should invest in new natural gas generators vs. large solar power arrays concluded Tuesday that solar is a better deal.

• From an Associated Press-GfK stock market poll. Of the people polled, 40% think the market will stabilize where it is now by the end of 2014, with 39% predicting that it will drop, but not crash. Only 14 % believe the market will rise and 5 percent think it will crash.

• Pending sales of homes ticked up in November, the first gain in six months, signaling that upcoming activity may rise, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. The index of pending home sales increased 0.2% last month to 101.7, slightly above a 10-month low of 101.5 in October, but down from 103.3 in November 2012.

• Temperatures in parts of Australia are set to reach almost 50C /122F in the coming days, with total fire bans in place in northern regions of South Australia and a week-long heat wave enveloping Queensland.
• (Reuters) - Many parts of the U.S. Midwest braced for a blast of Arctic air this weekend that could bring some of the coldest temperatures in two decades..

Just 90 companies caused two-thirds of man-made global warming emissions "There are thousands of oil, gas and coal producers in the world," climate researcher and author Richard Heede at the Climate Accountability Institute in Colorado said. "But the decision makers, the CEOs, or the ministers of coal and oil if you narrow it down to just one person, they could all fit on a Greyhound bus or two."

Happy Holidays

             (Updates Resume January 5)

QUICK OVERVIEW

• (Reuters) - Investors in U.S.-based funds pulled $6.5 billion out of stock mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, marking the biggest weekly outflows this year, on worries the U.S. Federal Reserve could scale back its bond purchases as soon as next week..

• Fu Shou Yuan, a chain of Chinese high-end graveyards, prices its $215m IPO at the top of its range, with the retail investor portion 670 times oversubscribed..
• China's extreme smog is forcing pilots to train for blind landings.

• The European Parliament has approved a series of crucial rules and steps towards the eventual completion of a “Banking” Union designed to close down failed banks in order to prevent banking crises. Under the terms, the cost of closing down a euro zone bank will initially be borne almost fully by its home country, but the obligations of euro zone partners will gradually rise to be shared equitably after 10 years.

• The U.S. household unemployment rate fell to a five-year low of 7 percent and nonfarm payrolls rose by 203,000 in November in a strong jobs report
• The U.S. economy grew at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter, faster than first reported and its strongest performance in 1 1/2 years.

• ALEC calls for penalties on 'freerider' homeowners in assault on clean energy In a sign of the influence the network holds with Republicans, it will be addressed by rising stars of the party including US senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who led the push for the recent government shutdown, and the party's budget guru, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.

• Canada’s household debt rose to 163.7 % of disposable income in Q3, compared with 163.1 percent in the previous quarter. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said that household debt represents the biggest threat to the Canadian economy, suggesting that he'd be cutting interest rates if he weren't worried of fueling more borrowing in a time of near record-high levels of household debt and an overheated housing market.

• The ICCO raised the cocoa production deficit to 160,000 from 52,000 tons. "World production of cocoa beans is now expected to be significantly lower than previously envisaged," the ICCO said, cutting its forecast for world output by 55,000 tons to 3.99m tons. Consumption was raised by 54,000 tonnes to 4.05m tonnes.

• Disney (DIS) raised the dividend by 15% to $0.86 Per Share

• Czarnikow said demand for sugar will gain 2.5 % this year, the biggest rate of growth since 2008, when global consumption rose 3.5%.

• In 2002, the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service estimated that communication towers kill 4 million to 5 million birds per year, cars kill roughly 60 million, and cats kill hundreds of millions.

• The Chinese government said that it landed an unmanned space probe on the moon, joining the U.S. and Russia as the only nations to accomplish the feat.

• J.P Morgan lowered its forecasts on gold prices by 10% to $1,263 an ounce for 2014 and by 12% to $1,275 for 2015.

Next Update Dec. 15

QUICK OVERVIEW

• The pending U.S. home sales index fell 0.6% to 102.1 and dropped to its lowest level since last December, the National Association of Realtors said.
• Because of the 16-day republican/tea instigated government shutdown, sales of U.S. Existing Homes dropped 3.2% to a 5.12 million annual rate, the fewest since June.

• Eurozone jobless rate stands at 12.1% in Oct.

• Israeli stock prices rose to another record high last Sunday, ignoring local politicians' comments that a deal to curb Iran's nuclear program was a mistake.

• European Central Bank member Joerg Asmussen said the ECB, which cut interest rates to a record low earlier, was ready to take further action if necessary and instruments at its disposal included negative deposit rates.

• Ukraine bowing to pressure from Russia is the first major defeat for the EU in its eastward march since the fall of Communism.

• Swiss vote down plan to cap salaries of top executives.

• China and Japan appeared to be a step closer to a military confrontation that could drag in the United States, after Beijing extended its air-defense zone over a group of islands that is also claimed by Tokyo..

• Japan's central bank kept its ultra-loose monetary policy in place and says the economy is on track for a "moderate recovery”.
• YoY Japan's consumer prices increased by 0.9% in October, marking the fastest growth in five years and signaling possible exit from deflation.

• U.S. regulators are considering whether to give banks more time to comply with the Volcker rule, which bans them from gambling with their own money, Fed Vice-Chair Janet Yellen said.

• The equation is simple: (more U.S. imports) = (fewer U.S. jobs) A report by the Economic Policy Institute estimates that America's trade deficit with China between 2001 and 2011 eliminated a net 2.7 million U.S. jobs.

• India's July-Sept. GDP grew 4.8 %

• Bloomberg forecasts China to pass India in Gold purchases and projects a 29% growth in Chinas gold purchase for 2013.

• GE turns to 3D Printers for plain parts

Next Update Dec. 1

QUICK OVERVIEW

• The European Commission has exercised historic new EU powers allowing it to revise national budgets for the first time.

• (Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a controversial bill on Tuesday that would delay two government regulators from adopting rules requiring stock brokers and retirement account financial advisers to put their customers' interests ahead of their own.

• (USA Today) Most Americans say past global warming has been caused largely by human activities — ranging from a low of 65% in Utah to a high of 92% in Rhode Island. Most also back government curbs on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants — from 62% in Utah to 90% in New Hampshire.

• (Reuters) - Carbon dioxide injected into oil and gas wells may have caused a series of minor earthquakes in Texas long before the adoption of current hydraulic fracking.

• Deforestation in the Amazon increased by nearly a third over the past year, according to Brazilian government figures released on Thursday.

• The Environmental Protection Agency proposed to reduce the amount of ethanol in the nation's fuel supply for the first time. December corn fell 4.5 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $4.22 a bushel.

• Australia’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low and said a lower currency will be needed to achieve balanced growth.

• Crime rates will soar, economies will stagnate and Europe's social fabric will deteriorate if policymakers do not act to address youth unemployment, World Economic Forum report warns.

• General Electric Co (GE) will spin off its credit card business next year into a separately traded company as it tries to reduce its exposure to unpredictable financial businesses and return to its manufacturing roots.

• In Q3 Windows Phone accounted for nearly 10 % of all Smartphone sales in the EU 5 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom), research firm Kantar Worldpanel ComTech said. That's a double YoY - largely due to sales of Nokia's Lumia handsets.

• The board of directors of Kimberly-Clark (KMB) has proposed a spin-off of its healthcare business in order to focus on its consumer and professional brands.

Next Update Nov. 17

QUICK OVERVIEW

• Southern Europe is on a precipice Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 

• The Chicago purchasing managers index rose to 65.9% in October, the best performance since March 2011.

• At $680 billion, the U.S. federal government's latest annual deficit is the smallest since 2008.

• Globalstar (GSAT) NPRM To Enable Terrestrial Broadband Network in Licensed MSS Spectrum

• U.S. home prices posted their strongest gain in August for more than seven years, according to S&P/ Case-Shiller Home Price Indices the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted a 12.8% growth rate YoY, the highest increases since February 2006.

• Starbuck’s raised its quarterly dividend 24% to 26 cents a share.

• Eurozone's CPI is at a 4-year low in September

• Spain Retail Sales (YoY) improves to 2.2% in September from -4.5% in August

• Iran's inflation hits 36.2%

• YoY Indonesia's inflation eases to 8.32% in Oct

• World Bank: ‏Over the next 20 yrs, South Asia countries will add 1 million new people to the global labor force every month.

• YoY Asia's cocoa grindings rose 12% to 161,097 tonnes in Q3, while North American cocoa grindings rose 8.25% to their highest since at least 2009.

Next Update Nov. 3

QUICK OVERVIEW

• (NYT) China has become shrill in its criticism of the fiscal train wreck in the United States, arguing that the answer to a potential government default is to begin creating a “de-Americanized world.”..
• Fitch placed the triple A credit rating of the US on negative watch.
• One-month Treasury bills maturing on October 31 shot up 21 basis points to a new debt ceiling peak of 53 bps

• Brazil raised rates for fifth straight time since April bringing it close to double digits.

• The International Cocoa Organization is lifting its forecast for a Cocoa  deficit to 86,000 tons. It warned, "We are going to be in a deficit for the next four years, but closer to 50,000 to 60,000 tons".

• Accepting USDA's soybean numbers puts stocks to use at 4.5%; one of the tightest on record, with a very tight 2013-14 balance sheet

• Microsoft received 37,196 requests for user data from law enforcement agencies during the first six months of 2013.

• (Esquire} The War on Drugs Is Over. Drugs Won "The war on drugs could not have been a bigger failure. To sum up their most important findings, the average purity of heroin and cocaine has increased, respectively, 60% and 11% between 1990 and 2007. Cannabis purity is up a whopping 161% over that same time"

Next Update October 15/16

QUICK OVERVIEW

• Obama urged Republican/Tea to stop political brinkmanship on gov't funding and debt limit in order to avert self-inflicted wounds to economy.

• The Dow and S&P 500 set record highs on Fed's "no taper" decision.

• MoM existing U.S. Home Sales Beat Expectations rising 1.7% September

• US Philly Fed business index 22.3vs 10.0 exp

• (Reuters) - China could import 20-30 million tonnes of corn a year to cover growing supply shortages, a researcher with a government think tank said on Thursday, as much as four times current levels.

• (Bloomberg) Global cocoa demand will outstrip supply by 209,000 metric tons in the season ending Sept. 30, estimates KnowledgeCharts, a unit of Commodities Risk Analysis in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. That is bigger than the 52,000-ton deficit forecast by the International Cocoa Organization in London. The shortage next season will amount to 188,000 tons.

• 27% of Americans say now is a good time to find a quality job, up from 21 % in August. The figure is the highest since January 2008. At the same time, lower-income Americans' optimism has faded; with 19% saying now is a good time to find a quality job.

• Argentina’s economy grew 8.3% in Q2.

• The US National Security Agency (NSA) has posted an ad for a "Civil Liberties & Privacy Officer".

• The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed limits on carbon pollution from new fossil fuel (coal) power plants. The move, if successful, would be the first major step by the U.S. to limit greenhouse gas emissions from this sector.

• The Czech Republic became the latest EU member to denounce subsidies for clean but costly renewable energy and pledged to double down on its use of fossil fuels.

• Results from a referendum in the southern Swiss canton of Ticino showed that 65% of the electorate backed a proposal to forbid the covering of faces in public areas by any group.

• The Sunday Assembly—the London-based “Atheist Church” grew at 3,000% since January, a rate that might make this non-religious Assembly the fastest growing church in the world”.

Next Update  Sep. 15   Sep. 22

Jerry Brown's Tough-Love California Miracle "He preceded Al Gore," says Tom Hayden, the counterculture icon whom Brown appointed as the first chairman of his solar-energy council. "He's out there with solar beanies and rooftop collectors, and it's 1974 and people think he's a lunatic."

   “But I’ m not habituated – I disrupt my own thought pattern every day. I have learned to disbelieve almost everything I think!”