Quick Overview

• U.S. producer price index fell by 0.1% in December.
• U.S. industrial production rose by 0.4% in December
• The National Association of Home Builders reported that its housing confidence index rose 4 points to 25 in December, reaching its highest level in 4-1/2 years.

• The unemployment rate in Greece is 19% and rising. GDP has contracted by 12.5% since 2008 and is expected to fall by another 3% this year.

• PayPal added 1m new accounts per month in 2011, and closed Q4 with 106m registered accounts.

• Goldman Sachs announced higher-than-expected Q4 profit of $978 million, or $1.84 per share, compared with a gain of $2.2 billion last year.

• Australia's unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2% in December

• Brazil cuts key rate to 10.5% as expected.

• Chinas property prices fell 0.3% in December, and unsold inventories have reached the highest level in recent history, raising concerns monetary tightening may have gone too far.

• The IMF attempts to increase bail out resources by 500bn to tackle Eurozone contagion that will see Britain stump up a further £15bn, while German finance minister doubts the US will support the plan.

• Saturday marks the 2nd anniversary of the (U.S.) Citizens United ruling handed down by the Supreme Court. It gave corporations 1st amendment rights to spend unlimited money to support or defeat candidates for office.

• Moody’s raised Indonesia’s rating to Baa3 from Ba1

Quick Overview

• China fourth-quarter GDP grows 8.9%
• China’s Industrial output rose 12.8% YoY -- trade expected 12.2%

• U.K. CPI fell to 4.2% in December from 4.8% in November

• Annual inflation in the Eurozone went down to 2.7% in December

• Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang resigns, stock up 5%

• Moody's confirmed that it decided to maintain top triple-A credit rating for France

US undermined by leaks

Quick Overview

• Yields on German short-term debt fell below zero last week, meaning investors accept a negative return for debt from Deutschland, after S&P confirmed downgrades for France and Austria to double-A-plus. S&P also lowered Italy and Spain two notches, to triple-B-plus and single-A, respectively.
• Could the euro zone’s bailout fund, EFSF, now lose its AAA rating, after France, the fund's second-largest guarantor, lost its top-notch rating.
  
  
  
  

• Fed: The decline in U.S. house prices has wiped out $7 trillion in home equity. 1 in 5 U.S. homeowners is still under water.

• Alan Krueger: "The increase in the share of income going to the top one percent people from 1979 to 2007 exceeds the total amount received by the bottom 44 percent households," he noted, adding that "as the consequence of the shift, the middle class has shrunk".

• Bloomberg: Companies in the S&P 500 will raise dividends by 11.5% on average this year.

• Bloomberg: Earnings for the S&P 500 are forecast to climb 10.7% to 105 in 2012.

• Ernst & Young slashed Britain’s 2012 GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to just 0.2%.

• Spain’s Consumer prices rose by 2.4% YoY in December.

• Mainland China imported almost 102.8 metric tons of Gold in November, valued at about $5.4 billion.
• The opulent, gold-garnished menu concocted for guests at the Golden Globes awards ceremony in Beverly Hills today (NZT) has already prompted some observers to choke.

The Perils of 2012Joseph E. Stiglitz
The good news is that addressing these long-term problems would actually help to solve the short-term problems. Increased investment to retrofit the economy for global warming would help to stimulate economic activity, growth, and job creation. More progressive taxation, in effect redistributing income from the top to the middle and bottom, would simultaneously reduce inequality and increase employment by boosting total demand. Higher taxes at the top could generate revenues to finance needed public investment, and to provide some social protection for those at the bottom, including the unemployed.

Quick Overview

• The USDA put corn ending stocks at 846 million bushels, down 2 million from the month prior and 282 million under a year ago. U.S. corn stocks are very small at 24.4 days' supply. That's historically very, very low. Globally corn stocks are at 53.9-day supply, down 1.5 days from last year and a 38-year low. The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio remained unchanged from last month at 6.7% while global stocks-to-use ratio only increased slightly to 14.8%.
• (Bloomberg) Corn crops in Brazil and Argentina, which produce 30 percent of the world’s exports, will lose 11 million metric tons of output after a drought caused “irreversible” damage, forecaster Agroconsult said.

• Obama asked Congress Thursday to raise the debt ceiling to $16.4 trillion.

• California has slipped behind Brazil to become the ninth-largest economy in the world.

• U.S. Retail sales increased a less-than-expected 0.1%, despite continued strength in autos.

• French CPI rose 0.4 % in December

• (Bloomberg) a proposed European Union embargo of Iranian oil imports was said likely to be delayed for six months
• 
  
• The dry bulk market has been in freefall, reminding ship owners just how fragile the market is.

Quick Overview

• La Nina, the weather event, that dried up crops in Argentina and Brazil and flooded plantations in Thailand and Malaysia may be weakening, said Telvent DTN Inc.

• U.S. regulators have halted shipments of imported orange juice from all countries, and plan to destroy or ban products if tests find even low levels from a prohibited fungicide. Initial test results are due this week.

• PG declared another quarterly dividend of $0.525 per share. P&G has been paying a dividend for 121 consecutive years since its incorporation in 1890 and has increased its dividend for 55 consecutive years at an annual compound average rate of approximately 9.5%.

• An Iranian nuclear scientist was killed in a Tehran bomb explosion, in at least the third assassination targeting the nation’s atomic program that the U.S. and Israel have vowed to halt.

• The Nevada November gambling revenue statewide rose 7.1% to $880.1 million. On the Las Vegas Strip, which accounts for more than half the total, the take was up 9% to $495.3 million. Tourist traffic rose 3.2% in November to 3.03 million visitors.

• The DoE said that crude oil stocks rose by 5 million barrels, gasoline stocks increased by 3.6 million barrels, and distillate stocks, which includes diesel, increased by 4 million barrels.

• Japan's current-account surplus shrank in November, falling 85.5% as exports dropped amid slowing global demand and energy imports rose.

• The Fed Beige Book said U.S. economic activity increased "at a modest to moderate pace."

• Texas, leadin U.S States, generated 294 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2010, followed by Pennsylvania, with 129 million metric tons emitted.

• The German economy shrugged off the impact of Eurozone debt crisis and grew by 3% in 2011

Quick Overview

• Orange juice futures went limit up for a second day after a warning by food watchdogs of finding Carbendazimin in imports from Brazil. This is compounded by supply fears provoked by cold weather in Florida.

• (FT)The central banks of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy between them hold 3,200 tonnes of gold

• U.S. Insurance companies spent millions of dollars trying to defeat the U.S. health care overhaul, saying it would raise costs and disrupt coverage. Instead, profit margins at the companies widened to levels not seen since before the recession, a Bloomberg Government study shows.

• The U.S. should declare a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing for natural gas in populated areas until the health effects are better understood, doctors said.

• France's industrial production rose by 1.1 percent in November.

• China's online gaming market raked in $6.79 billion in 2011, up 32.4% YoY.

• (Bloomberg) Rubber plantations from Indonesia to Ivory Coast will tap a global crop this year that will create the biggest glut since at least 2004, cutting costs for Bridgestone Corp., Michelin & Cie. and other tire makers.

• Chinas December copper imports rose 47.7% YoY.

• (Reuters) - Organized crime has tightened its grip on the Italian economy during the economic crisis, making the Mafia the country's biggest "bank" and squeezing the life out of thousands of small firms, according to a report on Tuesday.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. economy created 200,000 non-farm payroll jobs last month -- unemployment fell to 8.5%.

• S. Korea's producer prices rose 0.2% in Dec.

• Central bankers and regulators in the EU, U.S and Japan have agreed to face 'detailed' peer reviews over how well they are implementing new international bank capital rules.

• David Cameron suggested on Sunday that legislation to curb excessive executive pay, including giving shareholders new voting powers, could begin in the spring. The High Pay Commission conducted an inquiry that found that the pay of top executives at FTSE companies had risen by more than 4,000 per cent on average in the last 30 years.

• Brazil's inflation rose to 6.5% in 2011, up from 5.91% in 2010

• The unemployment rate in the Eurozone stayed at 10.3 % in November, unchanged from October.

• Canada's unemployment rate rose to 7.5% in December

• Swiss inflation rate fell to 0.2% in 2011.

• Insurance companies in China collected $226.4 billion of premiums last year, up 10.4% YoY

• David Cameron has said he would veto a European-wide financial transaction tax unless it was imposed globally, deepening a confrontation with France and Germany.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. ISM rose in December to 52.6% from November's 52.0%, a reading that nonetheless was below the 53.3% expected.

• The DOE said in the week ended Dec. 30:
• Oil supplies rose 2.2 million barrels
• Gasoline inventories rose 2.5 million,
• Distillates supplies rose 3.2 million barrels.

• YoY BMW U.S. sales rose 17.9%

• It is hot in Australia and they’re running low on soft-drinks (The decade to 2011 was the hottest on record)

• The number of Americans claiming weekly unemployment benefits fell 15,000 to 372,000 last week, the lowest level since the summer of 2008.

• Spanish banks will need to find an extra €50bn to cover potential losses from property loans, the Financial Times reported

Quick Overview

• According to Dow Trend Earnings (aka Fed model) the Dow should be trading at $45,769

• "Trust me" is not enough of a safeguard, says Amnesty International, as Obama signs the NDAA into law.

• Hot, dry weather in South America continues to raise concerns about potential yield losses.

• US Manufacturing improves to 53.9 in December vs 52.7 in November.

• The Chinese purchasing managers index (PMI), rose to 50.3 in December from 49 in November, indicating a slight expansion in business activity in China's vast factory sector.

• New polling data from Lawrence Hamilton, of the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire, suggests that the “anti-science” epithet really does apply to many U.S. Republicans—at least on environmental issues.

Happy Holidays
(Updates resume Jan. 3)

Happy Birthday, Bill [of Rights]: Obama Breaks Promise To Veto Bill Allowing Indefinite Detention of Americans I am not sure which is worse: the loss of core civil liberties or the almost mocking post hoc rationalization for abandoning principle. The Congress and the President have now completed a law that would have horrified the Framers. Indefinite detention of citizens is something that the Framers were intimately familiar with and expressly sought to bar in the Bill of Rights. While the Framers would have likely expected citizens in the streets defending their freedoms, this measure was greeted with a shrug and a yawn by most citizens and reporters. Instead, we are captivated by whether a $10,000 bet by Romney was real or pretend in the last debate.

Quick Overview

• Having vetoed his way into isolation at last week's European Union summit, Cameron is now looking for allies.
  
• Spain’s ten-year yields fall 25 basis points to 5.43%

• (LAT) American CEOs raked in fat paychecks last year, as head honchos netted a median 27% increase in compensation in fiscal year 2010. Top executives from the S&P 500 scored a median 36.5% bump in realized compensation.

• U.S. current account trade deficit fell to 110.3 billion U.S. dollars in Q3, 11.5 percent lower than the previous quarter.

• Merkel calmly told parliament that a solution would take years and German central bank head Jens Weidmann compared demands for ECB intervention to an alcoholic grabbing for the bottle.

• Amazon said that it has sold more than 1 million units of its Kindle e-reader and Fire tablet each week for the last three weeks.

• In the Ukraine, the government is allowed to sell or use cars that have been stolen in other countries. The law creates the perfect conditions for organized gangs who steal luxury cars to order in Western Europe. “Perhaps this helped” Ukraine's GD which grew 5.3% in the first 11 months of this year.

• The yield on Germany's 30-year debt hit an all-time low of 2.36%.

• Fitch unexpectedly raised Indonesia's sovereign debt status to investment grade.

• U.S. Industrial production declined 0.2% in November

• The number of U.S. people applying for jobless benefits fell last week to 366000, the fewest since May 2008.

• The US seems determined to punish Bradley Manning -- the military proceedings against him, which begin Friday, are likely to end in a guilty verdict.

• (Spiegel) The murders of African street vendors by a right-wing extremist in Florence have shocked Italy. Questions are now emerging about whether the gunman acted alone. But one thing seems certain, he was close to a right-wing radical group that has a pop culture appeal admired even by Germany's neo-Nazis.

• Japans Tankan survey, the large manufacturer index of sentiment fell to minus 4 in December from plus 2 in September, marking the first decline in two quarters and retreating more than consensus market forecasts.

• FedEx (FDX) profits rose to $497 million, or $1.57 per share, from $283 million, or $0.89 per share, over last year’s second quarter.

Quick Overview

• Steve Freed analyst with ADM is expecting a bullish Jan. corn report saying that yield should be cut 1.5 bushels an acre = tight carryout.
• Reuters: The La Nina weather phenomenon is expected to reduce rainfall in Argentina main crop belt until at least mid January.

• Inventories at U.S. businesses rose 0.8% in October
• U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% for November

• German investor confidence showed a surprise rise of 1.4 points.

• The International Coffee Organization raised by 1.2m bags to 128.6m bags its forecast for world coffee production in 2011-12.

• MF Global, Enron, Arthur Anderson, Refco, Lehman, Countrywide, Bear Stearns, Madoff, Health South, Subprime etc. etc. Regulators get paid for what exactly?

Quick Overview

• Say goodbye to Xe. The company formerly known as Blackwater — the world’s most infamous private security corporation — has also jettisoned that name and now wants to be known as “Academi.” Business however will continue unchanged……………..

• Obama: After nearly 9 years our war in Iraq ends this month.

• Fitch Ratings said on Monday that a comprehensive solution to the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone "is not on offer"

• Intel (INTC) cut its Q4 revenue forecast, citing the hard-disk drive shortage.

• U.S. Ethanol exports 2nd highest on record in October

• Reuters is reporting the German govt. is in talks with Commerzbank to prop them up.

• November s the seventh month investors withdrew money from stock funds.

• India's industrial production fell 5.1 % in October

Quick Overview

• Every European nation except for Britain (Cameron is trying to “protect bankers from regulation") agreed to consider forging closer economic ties in hopes of preventing another debt crisis.

• GE hikes quarterly dividend by 2c to 17c a share.

• U.S. consumer sentiment rose to a six month high 0f 67.7 vs 64.1 in November.

• Nevada’s Gambling revenue rose 8.1% in October. The Las Vegas Strip, which accounts for more than half the total, led the growth, with a gain of 13.3%.

• The USDA estimates 848 million bushels of corn on hand at the end of next summer -- up less than 1% from last month's forecast. This is a supply of less than 25 days. A 30 day supply is considered healthy.
• The USDA estimates the soybean surplus to be up 18% from last month. Ending stocks are expected to be 230 million bushel. That's about a 28 day supply.

• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 1.6% in October to $43.5 billion

• Waste Management said it would increase its quarterly dividend by 4.4% to 35.5 cents
  
  
• MagnetU is a $24 device that broadcasts your social media profile to other “nodes” (people) around you, Technology Review Mims’s Bits reports. If anyone else with a MagnetU has a profile that matches yours sufficiently, the device will alert both of you via text and/or an app. It also links to Facebook, Linkedin, Twitter…..
• Capesize rates rose to 21-month highs on Chinese iron ore demand that is estimated to grow 20% by 2015.

Quick Overview

• U.S. wholesale inventories roe 1.6% in October.

• U.S. initial jobless claims in the week ending Dec. 3 fell 23,000 to 381,000.

• ECB cut lending rate to 1% from 1.25%.

• Jon Corzine, the former chief of bankrupt MF Global - the eighth largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history -- has no idea where the missing money is.

• JPMorgan’s CEO doesn’t know what tax rate he pays

• The Bank of England held interest rates at 0.5% and decided against more easing for the economy but more quantitative easing is expected in 2012.

• Indonesia’s held interest rates at 6%

• Six members of the Walton family, heirs to the (WMT) Walmart fortune, possess wealth equal to that of the entire bottom 30 % of Americans. This according to a new analysis by Sylvia Allegretto, a labor economist at the University of California at Berkeley.
  

  
  
• YoY Chinese consumer inflation fell  to 4.2%  in November from 5.5% in October and well below the three year peak it reached in July.

Quick Overview

• The DoE increased crude oil stocks by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending December 2, gasoline stocks rose by 5.1 million barrels, and distillate stocks rose by 2.5 million barrels.

• Australia's unemployment rate rose 0.1 % to 5.3% in November.

• Japan machinery orders dropped 6.9% in October.

• U.S. consumers increased their debt by 7.6 billion or at a 3.7% annual rate in October

• Dagong downgraded the credit rating of France from AA- to A+ with a negative outlook

• Dagong downgraded Italy’s debt by one level to BBB from the previous A- with "negative" outlook.

• South Korea's left rates unchanged at 3.25%.

• New Zealand left rates unchanged at 2.5 percent.

• A Chinese government think tank predicted China's economy to grow 9.2 percent this year before gliding to 8.9 t in 2012.

Occupied Washington Americans are not opposed to the rich getting richer—as John Steinbeck is said to have noted, "Socialism never took root in America because the poor see themselves not as an exploited proletariat but as temporarily embarrassed millionaires." But this prospect only satisfies so long as people believe that with luck and hard work, their ship, or at least their kids' ship, may some day come in. In a system overrun by piracy—a system in which the pirates also, sorry to stretch the metaphor, run the Navy—the dream becomes hard to sustain.