Quick Overview

• YoY the U.K.'s producer prices rose 10.2% in July
  

• The USDA said:
  67% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent, up from 66% last week.
  63% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, the same as last week.
  53% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down from 56% last week.
  45% of the cotton crop was rated good to excellent, down from 47% last week.

US dollar rallies as extent of worldwide recession becomes clearer
Arguably, the US is now super-competitive. Airbus and Volkswagen are shifting production plant across the Atlantic. US furniture and textile companies have stopped outsourcing to China, and are coming home.

The International Monetary Fund says the dollar has fallen 25pc to 30pc on a global basis, just as it did in the late 1980s. There was no shortage of dollar doomsters at that time, warning that America was finished - left behind by Japan and Germany. Events played out otherwise. America was on the cusp of a recovery.

Quick Overview

• U.S. worker productivity rose 2.2% in the second quarter.
  
• U.S. wholesale sales rose 2.8%
  
• U.S. Inventories rose 1.1%.
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate improved from 6.2% to 6.1%
  

• GDP in Italy fell 0.3%.
  

• Chile's state-run copper company said output fell 11.6 percent in the first half of the year amid heavy rains and labor strikes.
  

• The U.S. dollar had its highest close in five months.

Governments caused the credit crisis, but capitalism gets the blame
Greenspan now says the world faces a "once or twice in a century event". Faith in the financial system has been called into question. Taxpayers will have to rescue more banks. Missing is any hint of apology for his role in incubating this crisis as monetary overlord for 20 years.

Rice on possible IDF Iran strike: U.S. has no veto over Israeli military ops
"We don't say yes or no to Israeli military operations. Israel is a sovereign country," Rice said in an interview with Yahoo! News.

Quick Overview

• U.S. pending home sales rose 5.3% in June, better than expected. YoY pending home sales are down 12.3%.
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 7,000 last week to 455,000, more than expected
  
  

• The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 5.0%.
  

• The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.25%
  

• Japan’s machinery orders fell 2.6% in June.
  

• Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.
  

• YoY South Africa gold production fell 12.3% in June.
  

• The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency denied the request from Texas to reduce the Renewable Fuels Standard this year, saying that they found no evidence that the mandate was causing "severe harm" to the economy.
  

U.S. June Consumer Credit Up $14.3 Billion, More Than Forecast
Consumers are using credit cards and loans to cover expenses as falling home values cause banks to restrict access to home- equity lines.

Hank the Great? Paulson Copies Frederick With Covered-Bond Plan
(Bloomberg) -- In 1769, short of funds to rebuild Prussia after attacks by Russia, Sweden and Austria, Frederick the Great let aristocrats, churches and monasteries raise money by pledging their estates as security to investors.

Quick Overview

• Consumer confidence in the U.K. fell from 62 to 51 in July.
  

• German factory orders fell 6.1% in June.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
• Supplies of crude oil rose 1.7 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline fell 4.4 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 87.2% to 87.0% of capacity last week.
  Gasoline demand fell 2.3% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 3.5% YoY.
  

• The port of Dalian, which is the largest in northeast China, saw its container throughput rise 23.8% YoY.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Fed met and kept rates unchanged at 2.0%, as expected.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of services increased from 48.2 to 49.5
  

• U.K.'s manufacturing output fell 0.5% in June.
  U.K.’s index of services rose from 47.1 to 47.4
  

• Retail sales volume in the Euro area fell 0.6% in June.
  

• Australia kept rates unchanged at 7.25%, as expected.
  

• (JoC) A national container fee may be the most equitable means available to raise the billions of dollars needed to build freight infrastructure, a congressional hearing is told.
  

• Between January and May, China exported 3.39 billion pairs of shoes, down 3.6% YoY.

Quick Overview

• YoY U.S. Consumer prices rose 4.1% in June, up from 3.5% in May, for the biggest annual gain since May 1991.
  

• U.S. personal incomes rose 0.1% in June. Adjusting for inflation, spending fell 0.2%.
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 1.7% in June, more than expected.
  

• The USDA said:
  66% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent.
  63% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent, up from 62% last week.
  56% of the spring wheat crop is rated good to excellent, down from 60% last week.
  86% of the winter wheat crop is harvested.
  47% of the cotton crop is rated good to excellent.
  

Deutsche calls the top of the commodity cycle
Deutsche Bank has called the top of the commodity cycle. The uber-bulls of the oil, food and metals boom have advised clients to take profits before the downturn engulfing most of the global economy works its inevitable effects.

Updates resume August 3 or 4

Quick Overview

• The White House expects the federal budget deficit to hit a new record high of $490 billion in 2008-2009,
  

• Consumer confidence in Germany fell from 3.6 to 2.1 in July, the lowest in five years.
  

• Australia’s index of business confidence expectations for the July to September quarter fell from -4 to -8.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. new home sales fell 0.6% in June. So far in 2008, new home sales are down 35% YoY.
  
  

• U.S. durable goods orders rose 0.8% in June. Excluding defense, orders rose 0.1%.
  

• Japan's consumer prices rose 0.5% in June and 1.9% YoY.
  

• YoY heavy-duty U.S. retail truck sales rose 9.5% in June. This ends a streak of 17 consecutive months of contraction.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. existing home sales fell 2.6% on the month.
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 34,000 last week to 406,000.
  

• U.K. retail sales fell 3.9% in June
  

• Germany's business confidence fell from 101.2 to 97.5 in July
  

• YoY Japan's exports fell 1.7% in June.
  

• YoY the USDA estimates U.S. production of orange juice in 2007- 8 up 24%. They estimate ending stocks at 41%.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• (Reuters) - The United States faced increasing inflationary pressures in recent weeks amid slowing economic growth, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, as it described conditions in some areas as "grim," "morose" or "bleak."
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 3.1% YoY
  

• Australia's consumer prices rose 4.5%
  

• Industrial orders for the Euro area fell 3.5% in May and down 4.4% YoY.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 1.6 million barrels to 295.3 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.9 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.2 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 89.5% to 87.1% of capacity last week.
  Gasoline demand fell 2.4% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 3.6%.

Quick Overview

• Richmond Federal Reserve regional index of manufacturing fell from -12 to -16 in July
  

• Canada’s retail sales rose 0.4% in May
  

• The USDA said there were 75.4 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage in June - up 60% YoY. Frozen pork rose 11% YoY.
  

• USDA said there were 1.515 billion pounds of frozen orange juice in inventory - up 67% YoY.
  

• (Reuters) - Wachovia Corp and Washington Mutual Inc led several large U.S. banks in posting weak second-quarter results on Tuesday, hurt by soaring losses from mortgages and other debt.
  
  

On War #267: Running the Narrows
By William S. Lind

More, the money is about to run out. We seem to have forgotten that no activity the state can undertake is more expensive than war. If a tanking economy cuts off the money flow, what comes next? The Sunday, July 12 Cleveland Plain Dealer quotes a local investment advisor saying, “A year ago, I would have discounted the scenario of the next depression. After what I’ve seen this year, I don’t discount anything anymore.” The Fed is trying to head off a full-scale financial panic by turning itself into a pawnshop, but no one knows how long that trick will work. The whole Ponzi scheme that is the current US economy still depends on an inflow of $2 billion in foreign, money daily. What happens if, or when, that flow ceases?

Quick Overview

• U.S. leading indicators fell 0.1% in June
  


• The Chicago Federal Reserve's index of national activity rose from -1.06 to -0.60 in June
  


• The USDA said:
  65% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent, up from 64% a week ago.
  61% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, up from 59% a week ago.
  63% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, up from 61% a week ago.
  45% of the cotton crop was rated good to excellent, down from 46% a week ago.
  71% of the winter wheat crop was harvested.
  


• Dolly may become a hurricane. It is heading toward the Mexico and Texas border.
  


• China’s Ministry of Railways has imposed a 75% full railcar rate increase as of July.