Shadow of war looms as Israel flexes its muscle
Martin Van Creveld, Israel's leading military historian, said there were some in the Israeli government who were indeed serious about a military option. But he said the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, would probably not be affected by Israel flexing its military muscles. 'I would be very surprised if the Iranians cave in. I think they are going to follow the same road as every nuclear country has followed since the 1960s [including Israel]; namely they are going to build nuclear weapons without admitting it,' he said. 'And I don't see this made the world into a worse place. I am convinced the outcome is going to be a balance of power and I personally think that a nuclear Iran may not be such a bad thing for the world... Iran is a third-world country. I don't see why people are so afraid of it.'

Quick Overview

• The CFTC has reiterated it has the power to stop trading in futures in emergencies. Pelosi told the CFTC to use its powers and bring a halt to excessive speculation.
  

• U.S. personal incomes rose 1.9% in May and consumer spending rose 0.8%. All credited to the stimulus checks.
  

• U.S. core rate of personal consumption expenditures rose 0.1% in May and 2.1% YoY.
  

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 59.8 to 56.4 in June,
  

• Canada’s industrial product prices rose 0.6% in May and 2.4% YoY
  

• GDP in New Zealand fell 0.3% QoQ, but rose 3.0% YoY.
  

• YoY the U.K.'s GDP rose 2.3% in the first quarter
  

• YoY Japan's inflation rose 1.5% in May
  YoY Japans household spending fell 3.2% in May
  

• The total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012, encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet, with the highest growth rates in areas such as China, Russia, India and Brazil, according to a report by Jupiter Research.
  
  

• Researchers at the National Institute for Neurological Disorders and Stroke are studying how applying
  gentle electrical current to the scalp can improve learning.
  

Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles
Barclays Capital said in its closely-watched Global Outlook that US headline inflation would hit 5.5pc by August and the Fed will have to raise interest rates six times by the end of next year to prevent a wage-spiral. If it hesitates, the bond markets will take matters into their own hands. "This is the first test for central banks in 30 years and they have fluffed it. They have zero credibility, and the Fed is negative if that's possible. It has lost all credibility," said Mr Bond.

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP rose 1.0% in the first quarter and up 2.5% YoY.
  

• U.S. existing home sales were at an annual rate of 4.99 million units, up 2.0% in May. At the current sale pace, this represent a 10.8 month supply.
  

• The state agricultural secretariat in Parana, Brazil said that recent frosts there have cut corn production by 1.3 million tonnes, or 20%.
  

• The International Grains Council lowered its world production forecast for corn by 7 million tonnes to 756 million tonnes.
  

• The International Grains Council raised its estimate of 2008/09 world wheat production to a record 658 million tonnes. This is up 8 million from their last estimate.
  

• A Goldman Sachs analyst said investors should sell Citigroup shares short as losses mount from troubled debt.

Quick Overview

• U.S. New home sales were at an annual rate of 512,000 units in May, down 2.5% from April's pace. YoY new home sales are down 37%.
  

• U.S. Durable goods orders were unchanged. Excluding transportation, orders were down 0.9%.
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro area rose 2.5% in April and up 11.8% YoY.
  

• Warren Buffett said growth is slowing and inflation is really heating up.
  

• American Express said business conditions continue to weaken in the U.S. and so far this month credit indicators deteriorate beyond expectations.
  
  
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 800,000 barrels last week to 301.8 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline fell 100,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 400,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 89.3% to 88.6% last week.
  Gasoline demand was down 2.1% YoY
  Distillate demand was down 1.1% YoY.
  
  

• Nebraska Cattlemen and Texas Governor Perry are asking the Environmental Protection Agency to reduce the ethanol mandate to 4.5 billion gallons
  

• India's textile industry is asking the government to freeze cotton exports until the end of this year to prevent a shortage of domestic supplies.
  

• The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting surveys in flood affected areas this week to get updated information for next Monday's acreage report. The original surveys were conducted before the severe flooding of the past week.

Quick Overview

• The S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices fell 1.4% in April and down 15.3% YoY.
  

• The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell from 58.1 to 50.4 in June
  

• The Richmond Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing fell from -3 to -12 in June
  

• India's central bank raised interest rates to 8.5% from 8%, and raised reserve ratio requirements to 8.75% from 8.%.
  

• Stats Canada estimated:
  25.1 million acres of wheat were planted, up 16% YoY.
  15.8 million acres of canola were planted, up 7% YoY.
  2.97 million acres of corn were planted, down 13% YoY.
  2.99 million acres of soybeans were planted, up 3% YoY.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The Chicago Fed’s index of national activity improved from -1.23 to -.96 in May
  
  

• Business confidence in Germany fell from 103.5 to 101.3 in June

Scientists find bugs that eat waste and excrete petrol
What is most remarkable about what they are doing is that instead of trying to reengineer the global economy – as is required, for example, for the use of hydrogen fuel – they are trying to make a product that is interchangeable with oil. The company claims that this “Oil 2.0” will not only be renewable but also carbon negative – meaning that the carbon it emits will be less than that sucked from the atmosphere by the raw materials from which it is made.

Israel flexes muscles with 'Iran attack' drill “Iran must be stopped by all possible means,” Mr Olmert told an American pro-Israeli lobbying group earlier this month

Morgan Stanley warns of 'catastrophic event' as ECB fights Federal Reserve
Just as then, the dollar has plummeted far enough to cause worldwide alarm. In August 1992 it fell to 1.35 against the Deutsche Mark: this time it has fallen even further to the equivalent of 1.25. It is potentially worse for Europe this time because the yen and yuan have also fallen to near record lows. So has sterling

Quick Overview

• Canada’s retail sales rose 0.6% in April
  

• Mexico's central bank raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 7.75%.
  

• India's inflation rose to its highest level in 13 years, accelerating to 11.05% after a fuel price hike.
  
  

• YoY South Africa’s gold production fell 10.1% in April

Quick Overview

• U.S. leading indicators rose 0.1% in May -- better than expected.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -15.6 to -17.1 -- weaker than expected.
  
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims fell 5,000 last week to 381,000.
  
  

• China announced they are increasing their subsidized gasoline prices 16% and diesel prices 40%.
  
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 1.0% in May and 2.2% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s retail sales rose 3.5%.
  

• A high-ranking member of the feed industry in China warned overnight that it could face an annual corn-deficit of 400 million bushels by 2010, requiring increased imports. Rapidly increased demand for meat in the Chinese diet is fueling the rise in demand for feed grains and protein, suggesting imports of U.S. corn. Some trade sources have suggested that China may need to begin importing U.S. corn as early as this next year... (Arlan Suderman Farm Futures)
  
  

• Reuters reported that a fungal disease in Indonesia is threatening the quality of 60% of the cocoa crop.

Gold May Rise to $5,000 on Inflation, Schroder Says (Update1)
Demand for gold will also rise as central banks become net buyers for the first time in 20 years, driven by developing countries, he added. Last year, world production of gold sank to the lowest since 1937 as reserves are depleted and few new sources of gold have been found.

Mexican Peso Trims Gains as Calderon Announces Price Freezes
..Calderon said the government and industry groups had agreed to freeze the price of basic items, including tuna, coffee and beans..

The Illusion of Vast Undeveloped U.S. Oil Resources
There has been a relentless stream of discussion on talk radio and articles in the mainstream media that claim that if only all of the U.S. were opened for oil development, we would have plenty of U.S. oil. No amount of evidence would convince those promoting this idea that it is not correct, but there is ample evidence that the U.S. is in terminal decline and opening all remaining lands and waters to oil development would at best only slow the inevitable decline.

Quick Overview

• Canada’s index of leading indicators rose 0.2%

• Construction output in the Euro area fell 0.8% in April and down 2.4% YoY
  
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 1.2 million barrels to 301.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.4 million barrels.
  Refinery use improved from 88.6% to 89.3
  Gasoline demand was down 1.8%
  Distillate demand was down 0.4%.

Quick Overview

• U.S. producer prices rose 1.4% in May and 7.2% YoY.
  

• U.S. housing starts fell 3.3% from April's pace. It was the smallest number of housing starts in 17 years.
  

• U.S. industrial production fell 0.2% in May,
  

• U.K.'s consumer prices rose 3.3% YoY
  

• Japan's tertiary index rose 1.8% in April.
  

Quick Overview

• The N.Y. Fed’s regional index of manufacturing fell from -3.2 to -8.7 in June, weaker than expected.
  

• Consumer prices in the Euro area rose 3.7% in May
  

• The USDA expects the world's ending stocks of coffee to increase by 4.8 million bags in 2008-2009, to 17.2 million bags, or 13% of annual use.
  

• The Iowa Secretary of Agriculture said on Friday that 2% of the state's corn acres have not been planted and that another 7% were lost to flooding. This is 1.18 million acres of lost production in Iowa alone.

Quick Overview

• U.S. CPI rose 0.6% in May and 4.2% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.2%.
  

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 59.8 to 56.7 in June
  

• Japan left interest rate unchanged at 0.50%.
  

• Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 2.0%
  

• India’s wholesale prices rose 8.75% YoY.
  

• RealtyTrac said U.S. foreclosure filings rose 48% YoY, and 7% MoM.
  
  
  

Supreme Court restores habeas corpus, strikes down key part of Military Commissions Act
The Court's ruling was grounded in its recognition that the guarantee of habeas corpus was so central to the Founding that it was one of the few individual rights included in the Constitution even before the Bill of Rights was enacted. As the Court put it: "the Framers viewed freedom from unlawful restraint as a fundamental precept of liberty, and they understood the writ of habeas corpus as a vital instrument to secure that freedom." The Court noted that freedom from arbitrary or baseless imprisonment was one of the core rights established by the 13th Century Magna Carta, and it is the writ of habeas corpus which is the means for enforcing that right. Once habeas corpus is abolished -- as the Military Commissions Act sought to do -- then we return to the pre-Magna Carta days where the Government is free to imprison people with no recourse.