Quick Overview

• U.S. Retail sales rose 0.9% in December, more than expected.
  

• India's Nov industrial production rose 14.4% YoY.
  

• Chinese GDP rose to 10.5% from 10.4% QoQ.
  

• The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 935 to 752 million bushels. (stocks/usage 6%, lowest since 1975)
  Soybeans were increased from 565 to 575 million bushels. (stocks/usage 19%)
  Wheat was increased from 438 to 472 million bushels.
  Sugar was reduced from 1.981 to 1.801 million tons.
  Cotton was increased from 6.30 to 7.10 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 93 to 86 million tons. (stocks/usage 11.9%)
  Soybeans increased to 56 million tons. (stocks/usage 25%)
  Wheat was increased from 121 to 122 million tons.
  Cotton was increased slightly to 52 million tons.
  

• The USDA estimate for the 2006-2007 Florida orange crop is 140 million boxes (unchanged) and a projected juice yield of 1.58 million gallons a box .
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Jobless claims were down 26,000 to 299,000.
  

• The DoE said that supplies of natural gas were down 49 billion cubic feet to 3.025 trillion cubic feet
  

• The Bank of England today surprised the market with a 25 bp hike in the base rate to 5.25%. The market consensus was for an unchanged policy.
  

• Australia’s unemployment rate stayed at 4.6%.
  

• The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.50%.
  

• Germany's real GDP was up 2.5% in 2006.
  

• Japan's index of leading indicators dropped from 54.5% to 20.0% in November, indicative of economic slowing ahead.
  

War With Syria and Iran = Peace With Iraq?
Speaking about the two countries tonight, the president said that the United States wiill "seek out and destroy" those who are providing material support to our enemies.
It is only a threat. But it is a far cry from the diplomatic proposals floated just last month for making Syria and Iran part of the solution. Can the president really be saying that we are willing to risk war with the two countries, and even attack elements inside them, to achieve peace in Iraq?

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in November to its smallest level since July 2005. Exports were up 0.9% in November to $124.8 billion while imports were up 0.3% at $183.0 billion,
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil supplies were down 5.0 million barrels at 314.7 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were up 3.8 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were up 2.1 million barrels.
  

• The National Climatic Data Center said 2006 was the warmest year on record in the U.S. and the sixth warmest worldwide.
  
  

Bush Lifts Alaska Oil, Gas Drilling Ban
There are believed to be 200 million barrels of oil and 5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas beneath the bay's federal waters three miles to 200 miles from shore. The Interior Department last year estimated energy development could produce up to 11,500 jobs and new tax revenue for the state.
But the area also is known for its fisheries with huge annual catches of salmon, cod, red king crab, halibut and huge schools of herring.

Quick Overview

• Australian retail sails rose 0.2% in November, less than expected
  

• Bush lifted a ban Tuesday on oil and gas drilling in Alaska's Bristol Bay, an area known for its endangered whales and the world's largest run of sockeye salmon.
  
  

• The ABC News and Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index fell to -5 in the week ending Jan. 7 from -3 the previous week.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy expects world petroleum demand to increase 1.5 million barrels a day in 2007 to 86.3 million barrels a day. They expect world production to increase 1.1 million barrels a day to 85.8 million barrels a day.
  
  
  

• The Chicago Board of Trade announced plans on Tuesday to launch derivatives based on the $5,000bn US commercial property market.
  
  

• For generations Vito Chiesa's family has grown peaches for canning, but the Central California farmer plans to bulldoze his entire orchard if he can't get enough workers to handpick the fruit.

Quick Overview

• Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi said domestic consumption should rise in Japan in a tight labor market and that he believes Japan is no longer experiencing deflation.
  
  

• There is talk that OPEC may be planning to carry out another cut in production levels after last week's drop in the price of crude .
  

• The Cotton Advisory Council predicted that world ending stocks of cotton will be down 4 million bales in 2007-2008 to 48 million bales.

• Germany's cocoa grind totaled 322,232 tons in 06, up 30% YoY.
  

U.S. consumer credit rises $12.33 bln in November
Consumer credit rose by a 6.23 percent annual rate to $2.390 trillion in November

Quick Overview

• U.S. Payrolls rose jumped by 167,000 in December and the unemployment rate held at 4.5%, the Labor Department said Friday.
  
  

• November air cargo shipments jumped 2.9% YoY.
  
  

• China's central bank raised the bank reserve requirement to 9.5% from 9.0% in another attempt to slow bank lending.
  
  

• The unemployment rate in the Euro area improved from 7.7% to 7.6% in November, the lowest in 13 years.
  
  

• A new US Senate Bill to boost ethanol was introduced Thursday. The bill calls for the oil industry to blend 60 billion gallons of ethanol and biodiesel annually in motor vehicle fuel by 2030. This would be a huge increase from current Energy Policy Act of 2005 that requires 7.5 billion gallons of ethanol and biodiesel to be blended in the fuel supply by 2012.
  
  

• The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 47 billion cubic feet to 3.074 trillion cubic feet.

Quick Overview

• U.S. factory orders rose 0.9% in November. Excluding transportation, orders were down 0.5%.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. index of services dropped from 58.9 to 57.1
  

• US jobless claims were up 10,000 to 329,000.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil supplies were down 1.3 million barrels to 319.7 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 5.6 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were up 1.0 million barrels.
  The U.S. produced 333,000 barrels of ethanol per day in October. The U.S. is expected to produce 4.9 billion gallons of ethanol in 2006, up 25% YoY
  

• Services Index in the U.K. increased from 59.8 to 60.6, the highest reading in almost ten years.
  

Economist Warns on Ethanol Corn Demand
According to the Earth Policy Institute's data, U.S. ethanol distilleries now online or in the works will pull an estimated 139 million tons -- or 5.5 billion bushels -- of corn from the 2008 corn harvest to produce fuel for automobiles.
That's based on 116 existing ethanol plants, 79 under construction, 11 undergoing expansion and 200 plants in the planning stages expected to be running by corn harvest time in September 2008.

Bush says feds can open mail without warrant
Bush asserted the new authority Dec. 20 after signing legislation that overhauls some postal regulations. He then issued a "signing statement" that declared his right to open mail under emergency conditions, contrary to existing law and contradicting the bill he had just signed, according to experts who have reviewed it.

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of U.S. manufacturing increased from 49.5 to 51.4 in December, more than expected.
  

• U.S. Federal Reserve officials agreed at their December meeting inflation was the main concern, but some felt the "subdued tone" of economic data meant risks to growth had increased, minutes released on Wednesday showed.
  

• U.S. Construction spending in November was down 0.2% from October's pace. In the first eleven months of 2006, construction spending was up 5.4% YoY.
  

• Germany's unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6% in December.
  

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson supported a White House plan to balance the budget by 2012, saying it could be accomplished with low taxes, strong job and productivity growth and restrained spending.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Consumer confidence rose from 105.3 to 109.0, an eight-month high, the New York-based Conference Board reported.
  
  

• The National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales were at an annual rate of 6.28 million units in November, up .6% from October's pace, but still down 10.7% YoY.
  

• The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index rose from 49.9 to 52.4 in December, more than expected.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were down 8.1 million barrels last week to 321.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 3.0 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were down 800,000 barrels.
  

• Japan's Nov industrial production rose 0.7% MoM, increasing the chances for a BOJ rate hike in January by 25 bp to 0.50%.
  
  

• China's GDP may expand at 10.5% in 2007, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
  
  

• Taiwan's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by one-eighth percentage point to 2.75%.
  
  

• American Trucking Associations’ seasonally adjusted truck tonnage index dropped 3.6% in November, following its 1.9% drop in October,

Quick Overview

• Japans Jiji news agency reported late Tuesday the Bank of Japan is likely to discuss raising rates to 0.5 percent next month.
  
  

• Retail sales in Japan were up 0.1% in November.
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said U.S. mortgage applications plummeted last week to the lowest level in nearly five months.
  
  

• New home sales jumped 3.4% in November, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. YoY sales are down 15.3%
  
  

• The United Arab Emirates' has decided to raise the share of Euro holdings in its reserves to 10% from 2% over the next six to nine months.
  
  

• Tin rose nearly 4% on the LME because of continuing supply concerns in Indonesia.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 62.149 million hogs and pigs in U.S. inventory on December 1st, up 1.1% YoY.
  

Quick Overview

• Personal income increased $33.8 billion, or 0.3 %, and disposable personal income increased $27.0 billion, or 0.3 %, in November. Consumer spending was up 0.5%, the most in four months.
  
  

• U.S. Durable goods orders were up 1.9% in November. Excluding transportation, orders were down 1.1%, more than expected.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped from 92.1 to 91.7 in December, better than expected.
  
  

• The confidence of American consumers slipped in the latest week, with buyers "shopped out" by the Christmas holiday, ABC News and The Washington Post said on Tuesday
  

• The Richmond Fed index of regional manufacturing fell from +7 to -6 in December, more than expected.
  

• Sweden’s November Producer Price Index was up 0.1% MoM and 3.7% YoY
  

• China's central bank expects the economy to grow 9.8% in 2007, down from 10.5% this year.
  
  

• UK’s Q3 GDP +was up 0.7% QoQ and up 2.9% YoY
  
  

• Japan’s unemployment rate fell from 4.1% to 4.0%, the lowest in eight years, household spending was down 0.7% YoY. Japan’s personal consumption, which makes up 55 percent of the economy, may appear weak at first glance, but a closer look at economic indicators suggests the outlook is not so bad. The minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting on Nov 15-16 contained some hawkish comments that supported the view the BOJ is leaning toward further tightening over the near-term.
  
  
  

• Canadian officials are proposing a C$345 million program requiring biofuel content of 5% in gasoline by 2010 and 2% in diesel fuel and heating oil by 2012, the Associated Press reported.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 11.973 million head of cattle on feed on December 1st, up 2.1% YoY
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. GDP rose 2.0% in the third quarter of 2006, slightly less than expected. YoY real GDP was up 3.0%. Consumer spending rose 2.8% QoQ.
  

• U.S. leading indicators increased 0.1% in November.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of regional activity dropped from 5.1 to -4.3 in December.
  

• U.S. jobless claims were up 9,000 last week to 315,000.
  

• Canada's GDP was unchanged in October and up 1.6% YoY.
  

• GDP in the U.K. was up 2.9% QoQ
  

• Argentina's November trade surplus jumped nearly 54 percent YoY, more than economists had expected, as exports surged.
  

• New Zealand's GDP was up 0.3% QoQ and up 1.3% YoY.
  

• The USDA said that there were 30.9 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage as of November 30th, up 8% YoY. Frozen pork supplies totaled 464.2 million pounds, up 6% YoY.
  

• The USDA said that there were 649.9 million pounds of frozen orange juice in storage on November 30th, down 37% YoY.
  

Want To Feel Rich? by Bill Bonner
Being "rich" is easier than we think. You just have to get away from Miami or Los Angeles. If you live in some countries, even an income of $5,000 a year will make you feel like a relatively rich man. In fact, a new study by the United Nations says that a net wealth of $2,200 will put you in the richest half of the world's people. If you can scrape together $61,000 in net assets, you are in the top 10%.
What does it take to be in the top 1%? Just $500,000.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Labor Department said that producer prices were up 2.0% in November, the biggest gain since 1974. YoY producer prices were up 0.9% and the core rate of producer prices was up 1.8% YoY.
  

• U.S. Housing starts came in at an annual rate of 1.588 million units in November, up 6.7% from October's pace. So far in 2006 housing starts are down 12.5% YoY.
  
  

• Confidence of American consumers held at a 2006 high last week, ABC News and The Washington Post said on Tuesday.
  

• Canada's consumer price index was up 1.4% YoY.
  

• German business confidence increased from 106.8 to 108.7
  

• The Bank of Japan met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected.
  

Goldman building market for home price derivatives
Property derivatives have the potential to become big on Wall Street. The value of U.S. housing, at $22 trillion as of March, exceeds the $16-trillion value of U.S. equities and is not much smaller than the $26-trillion market for U.S. debt.