Quick Overview

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment dropped from 93.6 to 92.1 in November, more than expected.
  

• The U.S. jobless claims were up 12,000 last week to 321,000.
  

• YoY Canada's consumer price index was up 0.9%.
  

• Industrial orders in the EU-12 were down 1.3% in September.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 5.1 million barrels to 341.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 1.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of heating oil were down 100,000 barrels.

Dollar May Fall a Second Day as Traders Add to Bets on Rate Cut
``Rising market perception rates will be cut in the U.S. could be enough to get the dollar snowballing lower.''

Quick Overview

• There is talk that OPEC may reduce production when they next meet on December 14th.
  
  

• Federal Reserve officials agree the U.S. labor force has entered a slower-growth phase, but they have yet to reach consensus on what pace of job growth is consistent with a noinflationary expansion.
  

• French GDP for Q3 was unchanged QoQ and up 1.8% YoY.
  

• Canada's composite index of leading indicators was up 0.2% MoM
  

• Retail sales volume in the U.K. was up 0.6% QoQ
  

• Argentina's trade surplus for October rose 11% YoY.
  

• Hong Kong's real GDP rose 6.8% in Q3.
  

• The USDA said that world sugar production will be 155.2 million tons in 2006-2007, up 7% YoY. World ending stocks will increase 4.2 million tons to 33.2 million tons -- 22% stock to use. The second lowest stocks to use ratio in nine years.
  

• The USDA said there were 714 billion pounds of frozen orange juice concentrate in storage on October 31, down 37% YoY.
  

• The minutes from the latest Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting show the bank plans to raise rates gradually to keep pace with inflation and growth.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 466.7 million pounds of frozen pork in storage on October 31, up 4.5% YoY. Bellies totaled 16.6 million pounds, up 5.6% YoY
  

China set to be biggest Malaysian cocoa buyer
The current per capita consumption of chocolate in China is only 26g, far below the world's average of 500g. In the European Union, where chocolate is a popular snack food, about 12kg of chocolate is consumed by a person yearly.

Will there be enough corn? "There is a collision course on the horizon, but when and how severe it is going to be, I don't know," said Doug Thompson, a corn and soybean grower near Kanawha, in north-central Iowa.

Quick Overview

• In Sydney Australia over the weekend, central bankers from the G-20 summit said central banks "will need" to raise rates to contain inflation.
  
  

• The Conference Board said Monday its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.2% in October, with six of the ten indicators showing a positive gain, after a revised gain of 0.4% a month earlier.
  
  

• State and local governments are experimenting with new ways of generating funds for highway work as gasoline taxes fail to produce enough revenue for such projects, the USA Today reported.
  
  

• German producer prices rose 0.3% in October and up 4.6% YoY

• Canada's wholesale sales totaled C$41.8 billion in September, down 1.6% from August.
  

• The USDA estimated Brazil's current coffee crop at 46.5 million bags, up 29% YoY.

Updates will resume November 18th.

Quick Overview

• The current economic downturn is "likely temporary," former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Monday, noting the worst of the housing market slump is likely past.
  
  

• CNBC reported that of the 407 S&P 500 companies that have reported third quarter results, 73% have been above expectations.
  

• Factory orders in Germany were down 2.5% in September, more than expected.
  

• Dow-Jones Newswire said Indonesia’s 2006 cocoa crop may only total 425,000 tons, down from 500,000 tons YoY.
  

GOP Must Go
The American Conservative

There may be little Americans can do to atone for this presidency, which will stain our country’s reputation for a long time. But the process of recovering our good name must begin somewhere, and the logical place is in the voting booth this Nov. 7. If we are fortunate, we can produce a result that is seen—in Washington, in Peoria, and in world capitals from Prague to Kuala Lumpur—as a repudiation of George W. Bush and the war of aggression he launched against Iraq.

White House slammed for Iraq nuke website
"It's sheer stupidity. Plus it's illegal. We violated our own treaty obligations in letting this out. This is clearly what is called RD--restricted data. This should not have been out there. It's highly dangerous, it's very useful--even like Iran, which is meeting some of the same technical challenges Iraq met in the Eighties. It should not have been out there. I'm absolutely convinced, and most people don't remember. But we went through this again in the spring. In the spring Congresman (Peter) Hoestra announced with (Sen.) Rick Santorum that we had found WMD in iraq. It was old mustard shells from the 1980s. They're desperate to prove a case."

Quick Overview

• U.S. companies added 92,000 workers in October, pushing the unemployment rate down to a five-year low of 4.4%.
  
  

• Canada's unemployment rate improved from 6.4% to 6.2% in October.
  

• The unemployment rate in the EU-12 remained unchanged at 7.8% in September.
  
  

• UK service index increased from 57.0 to 59.3 in October, morer than expected.
  

• China's central bank raised the required bank reserve ratio to 9.0% from 8.5%.

Only 50 years left' for sea fish There will be virtually nothing left to fish from the seas by the middle of the century if current trends continue, according to a major scientific study.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Labor Department said that productivity was unchanged in the third quarter while labor costs were up 5.3% from a year ago.

• U.S. Factory orders were up 2.1% in September, less than expected.
  

• The Labor Department said that U.S. jobless claims were up 18,000 to 327,000.
  

• Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui reiterated on Thursday that the central bank will adjust rates slowly, giving few clues on the timing of its next rise.
  

• Retail sales in Australia were up 0.1% in September.
  

• Manufacturing in Europe increased from 56.6 to 57.0.

• The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.25%,

• FC Stone estimates the U.S. corn crop at 10.808 billion bushels, and Informa Economics predicted the crop at 10.729 billion bushels. This compares with the USDA’s October estimate of 10.905 billion bushels.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 9 billion cubic feet last week to 3.452 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are up 9% YoY.
  

• Total money market assets stood at $2.265 trillion for the week, the Investment Company Institute said.

U.S. NEAR THE BOTTOM IN PRIVACY STUDY


Leading surveillance societies in the EU and the World

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of U.S. manufacturing dropped from 52.9 to 51.2 in October, weaker than expected.
  

• YoY U.S. Construction spending was up 2.9%
  

• Canada's Finance Minister said that he wants to begin taxing income-trust funds next year.
  

• Manufacturing in the U.K. dropped from 54.5 to 53.7 in October.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that::
  Supplies of crude oil were up 2.0 million barrels last week to 334.3 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 2.8 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were down 1.5 million barrels
  

• U.S. Ethanol production totaled 329,000 barrels a day in August, up 69,000 barrels YoY. Demand was 385,000 barrels a day.
  
  
  

Bond bear Grant sees threat to asset-backed bonds Instead of worrying about an instrument's yield, fixed-income portfolio managers should worry if they are going to get paid, Grant said in a keynote presentation.

Low inflation rate? Some consumers beg to differ Sean Taylor, 34, an information technology consultant in Trenton, N.J., ticks off the changes in his bills in the past nine years: property taxes, now $9,000 a year, up 105%; heating oil, $238, up 109%. His wife, Carrie, a state employee, pays $87 a month for health care; nine years ago, it was free. His income varies from year to year. Her salary is $75,000, up from $45,000, or 67%.

Baghdad is under siege
Sunni insurgents have cut the roads linking the city to the rest of Iraq. The country is being partitioned as militiamen fight bloody battles for control of towns and villages north and south of the capital.
As American and British political leaders argue over responsibility for the crisis in Iraq, the country has taken another lurch towards disintegration.

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago’s manufacturing index dropped from 62.1 to 53.5 in October, more than expected.
  
  

• U.S. Consumer confidence fell from 105.9 to 105.4 in October following an increase in September, the New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday.
  
  

• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the employment cost index increased 1.0% in the third quarter and 3.3% from a year ago, the biggest gain in two years.
  

• Brazil announced that they will raise the ethanol content of their gasoline from 20% to 23%, starting on November 20th.
  
  

• Canada’s GDP was up 0.3% in August and up 2.2% YoY.
  
  

• A hard-hitting report on climate change published by the British government on Monday has no basis in science or economics, OPEC's Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said.
  
  

• Russia's state foreign debt, including former Soviet-era debt, shrunk to $50.1 billion, or 39.5 billion Euros as of October 1.

Bond Strategists: Japan's Insurers May Shun U.S. Treasuries
(Bloomberg) -- Japanese life insurers, who manage the equivalent of $1.6 trillion in assets, will cut holdings of U.S. Treasuries after the cost of protecting the investment against currency swings surged, according to Calyon Securities.
A reduction in purchases by Japanese investors, the largest overseas holders of U.S. sovereign debt, may push up U.S. Treasury yields, said Susumu Kato, chief strategist at Calyon. Japan held $644.2 billion of Treasuries at the end of August, more than in any other country.