Quick Overview

• The Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 10,000 to 303,000, less than expected.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional manufacturing index increased from 12.3 to 13.2 in April.
  

• The Conference Board's index of U.S. leading indicators fell 0.1% in March to 138.4.
  
  

• Canada’s consumer price was up 2.2% in March.
  

• Japan's Exports exceeded imports by roughly $8.3 billion in March.
  

• The unemployment rate in Hong Kong was 5.2% in the first quarter of 2006
  

• The U.K.’s consumer price was up 1.8% in March.
  

• The Euro zone’s consumer price was up 2.2% in March
  
  

• The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 47 billion cubic feet to 1.761 trillion cubic feet.
  

Knowing Why Not To Bomb Iran Is Half the Battle
One of my teachers, a former chief of Israeli military intelligence, used to say that going to war is not like asking a girl out on a date. It is a very serious decision, to be made on the basis of carefully crafted answers to even more carefully crafted questions.

Quick Overview

• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said on Wednesday the U.S. economy can handle a housing slowdown and that oil-price pass-through to inflation had been manageable.
  
  

• Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark lending rate on Wednesday to a five-year low of 15.75 percent from 16.50 percent, the seventh straight cut since September to help bolster the economy as inflation eases.
  
  
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said the consumer price index was up 0.4% in March and up 3.4% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy, prices were up 0.3% in March and up 2.1% YoY.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were down 800,000 barrels to 345.2 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 5.4 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were down 300,000 barrels.
  
  

• London copper inventories are at 119,050 tons.
  

Will China's next big export be inflation?
Ordinarily in international trade, when a country pours lots of goods on to the global market and runs a large trade surplus, as China has, foreign exchange markets would tend to push up the value of that country’s currency. That, in turn, would make those products more expensive in the rest of the world — a factor that would tend to offset, at least in part, the low-inflation benefits of those cheap exports.

Sand covers one-eighth of China
Sand covered about one-eighth of China from April 14 to 18 and about 330,000 tons of sand fell in Beijing on Sunday night.

Dead zone linked to farm subsidies
Sometime this summer, a lifeless expanse of water about the size of Connecticut -- maybe a little bigger, maybe a little smaller -- will form off the state's coast.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Consumer confidence rose slightly in the latest week despite soaring gasoline prices, a survey showed on Tuesday.
  
  

• US PPI for March was out at +0.5% vs. 0.4% expected, but less Food and Energy out at +0.1% vs. 0.2% expected.
  

• U.S. New housing starts fell 7.8% in March to the lowest level in a year, the Commerce Department reported.
  

• Federal Reserve officials meeting in late March felt the U.S. central bank was nearly done raising interest rates, minutes from the meeting released on Tuesday showed.
  

• The USDA reduced the winter wheat crop that is rated good to excellent from 41% to 39%.
  

• The average price of a gallon of diesel fuel continued to rise, up 11.1 cents to $2.765 a gallon, the Energy Department said.

Quick Overview

• Federal Reserve monetary policy must stay "vigilant" because of the risk of higher U.S. inflation, Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow said.
  

• The dollar fell against most major currencies Monday after a media report suggested that China might reduce its purchases of U.S. Treasuries, and amid speculation that U.S. interest rates may have peaked.
  

• The U.S. Treasury said there were $99.5 billion in net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities.
  

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing dropped from 29.03 to 15.81 in April, weaker than expected.
  
  

• Japan's consumer confidence index increased from 47.9 in December to 48.2 in March, the best reading in 14 years.
  

• The Chinese government said that GDP was up an annual rate of 10.2% in the first quarter of 2006, stronger than expected.
  

• Canada confirmed its fifth case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in a six-year old dairy cow.

• The U.S. Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were up 81,769 bags in March, at 5.28 million bags.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that March retail sales were up 0.6%. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.4%. February’s, retail sales were changed higher, from a 1.4% decline to a 0.8% decline.
  

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that business sales were down 0.6%

• U.S. Jobless claims were up 12,000 last week to 313,000, more than expected.
  

• The University of Michigan's April consumer sentiment index increased from 88.9 to 89 -- better than expected.
  

• Canada's manufacturing shipments were C$50.7 billion in Feb -- down 2.2% form Jan.
  

• Retail sales in New Zealand were up 1.9% in Feb. -- Stronger than expected.
  

• Japanese corporate bankruptcies fell in the past business year, marking the fourth straight year of decline and their lowest level in a decade, helped by an improving economy and greater financial aid for small firms.
  

• Japan's government stuck to its view the economy is recovering in a monthly report on Friday, but said it has yet to emerge from price deflation.
  

• A possible new case of mad cow disease in Canada upset the U.S. cattle markets on Thursday
  

• The World Trade Organization ruled again that U.S. duties on Canadian lumber are in violation of international trade rules.
  

• Goldfields Minerals Survey said that world gold mine production increased 2% in 2005 and they are expecting a 4% increase in 2006.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 19 billion cubic feet at 1.714 trillion cubic feet

Quick Overview

• The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $85.47 billion in March.
  
  

• European 2005 GDP was up 1.3% in the Eurozone and up 1.6% in the EU-25.
  

• The U.K.s unemployment rate was 5.1% in the December to February quarter, up from 5.0% a month ago. The leading economic indicator for the U.K. was up 0.8% in February.
  

• Canadian exports were down 3.5% in February and imports were down 4.6%.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 3.2 million barrels last week to 346.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 3.9 million barrels
• Supplies of heating oil were down 1.4 million barrels.
  

• The U.S. Commerce Secretary said that China has agreed to ease its ban on U.S. beef.
  

China Trade Surplus Soared to $11.2 Billion in March

Quick Overview

• Former U.S. central bank chief Alan Greenspan said Wednesday that global economic imbalances might improve if some high-growth economies allowed their currencies to strengthen
  

• Japan's current account surplus grew 6.2 percent in February on year to 2.209 trillion yen before seasonal adjustment, the Ministry of Finance said Wednesday.
  The Bank of Japan decided to keep its interest rate near zero.
  

• YoY Retail sales in the U.K. were down 1.4% in March.
  

• The National Association of Realtors said that they expect new home sales to total 1.14 million units, down 10.9% YoY.
  

• Europe's cocoa grind totaled 308,775 tons in the first quarter of 2006, up 9.2% YoY.
  
  

• The International Coffee Organization reduced its estimate of world coffee production from 121 to 120 million bags for 2006-2007.
  

Quick Overview

• Federal Reserve governors said on Monday it was still unclear how much further interest rates need to rise to achieve correct levels of balance between growth and inflation.
  
  

• The International Monetary Fund expects the U.S. economy to grow by more than 3 percent this year, with the world economy growing at more than 4 percent, according to European newspaper reports on Monday.
  

• Japanese machinery orders, a key gauge of capital spending, rose 3.4% in February, a sign that strong investment by companies is likely to keep underpinning a steady recovery.
  

• YoY Singapore's GDP was up 9.1% in the first quarter.
  
  

• The first ETF (USO) allowing U.S. investors to engage directly (long and short) in the price of crude oil began trading on the American Stock Exchange.
  
  

• New ultralow-sulfur diesel fuel, which is due out later this year, should be ready on time, but it may be a tough, irritating and expensive, engineers from the federal government and two oil companies told a trucking industry conference.
  
  
  

• The USDA 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 2.351 to 2.301 billion bushels.
  Soybeans were unchanged at 565 million bushels.
  Wheat was reduced from 542 to 532 million bushels.
  Sugar was reduced from 1.51 to 1.50 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced from 6.60 to 6.50 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2005-2006 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn was reduced from 130 to 129 million tons.
  Soybeans were reduced from 54.4 to 53.8 million tons.
  Wheat was increased from 142.6 to 143.1 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced from 53.3 to 52.9 million bales.
  

• The USDA's estimate of Brazil and Argentina's soybean crop was reduced from 3.64 to 3.58 billion bushels, this is still 6% more than last year.
  
  
  

• The USDA lowered its estimate of Florida's 2005-2006 orange crop from 154 to 153 million boxes, but raised the anticipated juice yield from 1.58 to 1.61 gallons a box at 42 degrees Brix.
  
  

• The Brazilian government lowered its estimate of the forthcoming coffee crop from 42.0 to 40.6 million bags.
  

IMF warns high prices risk global crisis

High energy prices are “exacerbating” global economic imbalances, increasing the risks of a crisis, the International Monetary Fund will warn next week.

Regulators To Issue Mortgage Warning

Quick Overview

• It would be harder for the Federal Reserve to deal with a spike in inflation than a softening of growth, a Fed policy-maker said on Friday, suggesting the central bank may want to err on the side of higher interest rates.
  
  

• U.S. Payrolls rose 211,000 in March and the fell to 4.7% from 4.8% the previous month, the lowest in four years. YoY average hourly earnings were up 3.4%.
  

• U.S. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in February, the Commerce Department said Friday.
  

• Rail intermodal traffic on U.S. railroads rose 11%, while carload traffic inched up 0.6% last week compared with the same week a year ago, the Association of American Railroads said.
  

• Canada's unemployment rate improved from 6.4% to 6.3% in March, the lowest in 32 years.
  
  
  

• Germany's cocoa grind totaled 78,322 tons in the first quarter of 2006, up 35% YoY. For 2005, Germany's cocoa grind was up 10%.
  

• U.S. Consumers may face gasoline shortages or price hikes at the pump this summer because of fuel additive changes at refineries and a likely strong hurricane season, the U.S. Energy Secretary said on Friday.
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• The number of workers filing initial unemployment claims fell 5,000 last week to a five-year low, the Labor Department reported Thursday
  

• Australia's unemployment rate improved from 5.2% to 5.0% in March, the lowest in 29 years.
  

• Japan's Cabinet Office said that its leading index dropped from 81.8% to 80.0% in February, still a sign of growth.
  

• Mexico Sugar Growers Union sees 05-06 sugar crop down 8.8% YoY at 5.288M MT
  
  

• The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 10 billion cubic feet to 1.695 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are up 36%.
  
  

• A swan in Scotland was confirmed with H5N1.
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Wednesday said he expects U.S. payroll data on Friday to reflect a strong economy that will increase federal tax revenues and help to shrink budget shortfalls.
  
  

• Kansas City Federal Reserve President Hoenig was quoted saying the federal funds rate is "close" to where it needs to be.
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. index of services increased from 60.1 to 60.5 in March, stronger than expected.
  

• An index of services in Europe stayed at 58.2 in March, the highest in five years.
  

• U.K.’s Factory production was down 0.2% in February, weaker than expected.
  
  
  

• The German government confirmed the deadly strain of Asian bird flu was found on a poultry farm near Leipzig. 10,000 animals will be slaughtered as a first step in trying to stop the spread of the virus.
  
  

• London Copper inventory is at 113,925 tons.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 2.1 million barrels to 342.8 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 4.4 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were down 1.7 million barrels.
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumers' faith in the national economy flagged in the latest week after a short burst of confidence the previous week, ABC News and the Washington Post said on Tuesday.

Growth in federal spending unchecked
The federal government is currently spending 20.8 cents of every $1 the economy generates, up from 18.5 cents in 2001, ..