Signs are emerging that Trump’s policy onslaught is starting to hurt markets

• US consumer confidence fell the most since August 2021

 

Buffett’s $325 Billion Cash Hoard Is an Early Warning Signal 

..That is, when assets are expensive, future returns tend to be lower, and vice versa.

 

Notes today

•  B of A’s latest survey of portfolio managers has their cash allocation at 3.5% of portfolios. 
• Versus: The mystery over Warren Buffett’s surprisingly defensive stance deepened over the weekend.
• Letter -  must read!

• Musk Says All Federal Workers Must Justify Job or Risk Dismissal.

• When DOGE employees showed upat CFPB, they left staffers with the impression that they weren’t sure what the agency did... 

• The Trump administration backtracked on eliminating thousands of seasonal workers at Yosemite and other national parks after public outcry over how the job cuts would affect visitors. 

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Berkshire reported on Saturday that its operating profits for the fourth quarter surged 71%, driven by a nearly 50% jump in insurance investment income and improvement in its insurance underwriting business. Its annual operating earnings rose to $47.4 billion, up nearly 27% from the previous year.

• Buffett said the company has paid the US government more than $101 billion in taxes since he took the helm 60 years ago, more than any other firm in history, according to his annual letter to investors on Saturday.
• “I don’t know if he was specifically trying to call out large tech companies that don’t pay much in terms of cash taxes, but certainly if I’m reading between the lines, that’s what I’m seeing.”

• “Someday your nieces and nephews at Berkshire hope to send you even larger payments than we did in 2024,” he wrote. “Spend it wisely. Take care of the many who, for no fault of their own, get the short straws in life. They deserve better.”

 In defence of the deep state

A com­plex soci­ety is best served by a com­pet­ent, pro­fes­sional and neut­ral pub­lic ser­vice

Private Credit Is the Hot New Thing on Wall Street. But What Is It?

It sounds mysterious, but it’s really just a loan—often a risky one—made by an investment fund instead of through a bank.

There are many ways Trump could trigger a global collapse. Here’s how to survive if that happens

Because there is little public understanding of how complex systems operate, collapse tends to take almost everyone by surprise. 

This, as Andy Haldane, former chief economist at the Bank of England, has deftly explained, is what happened to the financial system in 2008.

Notes today

•  Trump indicated that the U.S. may impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, along with similar duties on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor chips.

• Russell Vought, Donald Trump’s newly installed acting head of the US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, announced on Saturday he had cut off the agency’s budget and reportedly instructed staff to suspend all activities including the supervision of companies overseen by the agency.

• The Department of Agriculture accidentally fired the employees working on bird flu response. They’re now frantically trying to get them back. 

• (UPI) -- A Wyoming woman hospitalized with bird flu is the state's first human case after her flock of chickens became infected and died, according to state officials.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Intel Has Biggest Rally Since 2020 on Breakup Speculation

The idea of the US buy­ing Nokia, Eric­sson or both is intriguing.

• Tele­coms equip­ment man­u­fac­tur­ing is one of the very few areas of tech­no­logy where the US is not just behind but not present at all. Reli­able net­works are vital for busi­ness and con­sumers alike, as well as becom­ing increas­ingly essen­tial in war­fare, as Ukraine is demon­strat­ing with its use of drones.

 Musk: 150-year-olds collecting SS

Notes today 

• 
  
• (Bloomberg) -- Robinhood Markets Inc. reported revenue that more than doubled as the online-trading firm was buoyed by crypto-market transactions around the US presidential election.

 

• US inflation unexpectedly increased to 3 per cent in January.

• John Rosenow, a Wis­con­sin dairy farmer, says that if Don­ald Trump deports all undoc­u­mented ali­ens, Amer­ic­ans will have to get used to a whole new diet.
• 
  
  
  

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Notes today 

• BYD announced plans to roll out its assisted driving tech across all vehicles putting advanced features usually found only in highend vehicles into the mass market -- including one priced under $10,000. 

• Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. 

• China and the US are facing the pro­spect of a renewed full-blown trade war as retali­at­ory Chinese tar­iffs on $14bn of Amer­ican exports came into effect yes­ter­day. 

• China has started a pilot program that allows insurers to buy gold for the first time. The move would potentially free up $27 billion of funds, says Minsheng Securities. 

• A dairy worker in Nevada was infected with a new type of bird flu that’s different from the version that has been spreading in U.S. herds since last year, federal health officials said Monday.
• Unfortunately, we seem to have no idea how widespread this version of the (#H5N1) virus already is in cattle herds.

• Public health authorities said Tuesday that an outbreak of measles in western Texas has expanded, while a new case was confirmed nearby across state lines in New Mexico.

• It appears that humanity now has about a spoon full (seven grams) of nano plastics in the brain.

• Microplastics can move through mice brains and block blood vessels, essentially mimicking blood clots that could potentially be fatal or otherwise disrupt brain function.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

 Gold at all time high

Notes today 

• Financial markets have lived with a potential US-led trade war for months - so starting this evening it will be time to deal with reality.

• World Markets Brace for Impact of Sweeping US Tariffs 

• Car Prices Face $3,000 Increase as Tariffs Hit Auto Sector

• Elon Musk’s task force has gained access to sensitive Treasury payment systems, sources say.

• Bloomberg: Soybean and corn plants hit by a drought on the Argentine Pampas are in worse shape than public forecasts say, according to an analysis of satellite imagery.

• So far market (S&P) not overly happy. 2/2/2025     3.05 pm (PT)

• Mexican Peso

• Canadian $ 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny