Notes today

• Economic growth could fall 50% over 20 years from climate shocks, say actuaries..

• In a steady spectacle of companies retreating from their diversity efforts, Costco Wholesale is standing pat.  
• In the meantime, Walmart is under fire from investors for cutting DEI programs.

Costco

• Canada Readies Tariffs on $105 Billion of US Products If Trump Hits First

• Walgreens' CEO finds that securing merchandise can prevent customers from buying.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Notes today 1/12/2025

 

• Barron’s reports that from 1926 to 2023 Altria Group (formerly Philip Morris) turned a buck (1$) into $2.65 Million. 

• Zuckerberg gets rid of independent Facebook and Instagram fact-checkers 

• French media Le Monde reports that EC President Ursula von der Leyen has decided to put on hold the ongoing investigations against Meta, X, and Apple  and not to open any new cases. 

• Inflation in China slowed for the fourth straight month in December, despite the government’s recent efforts to ease deflationary pressure.

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Fed Model (aka Dow Trend Earnings)

 

 Later

11/5/2024     10 pm  PT - Markets so far

S&P

Australian Dollar

British Pound

Yen

!0 Year bonds

Gold

Euro

 

  Later

Buffetts's Cash Pile

 

Commodities to Equity Ratio

 In & Out

 by Matt Davies

Notes today

• France,  Denmark, Saudi Arabia, Norway, Belgium and Sweden have called on their nationals to leave Lebanon in 7 hrs.

• Twitter just activated a setting by default for everyone that gives them the right to use your data to train grok. They never announced it. You can disable this using the web but it's hidden. You can't disable using the mobile app
• Direct link: https://x.com/settings/grok_/settings/grok_settings

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is escalating his rhetoric against Israel, suggesting Turkey could intervene on behalf of Palestinians.

• The US Federal Reserve may signal this week that interest rate cuts are on the way -- although it is widely expected to remain on pause until its next rate decision in September.

• Crypto Industry donors have poured more money into the 2024 election than in all prior cycles combined, according to tracker OpenSecrets ..
• Donald Trump will speak at a Bitcoin conference this month, according to the event’s organizers, an address that would highlight his growing embrace of the cryptocurrency industry.
• Trump calls for US to be 'crypto capital of the planet' in appeal to Nashville bitcoin conference.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

 Quick Overview  is up to date

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today 

• Economist: An IT outage caused businesses around the world to grind to a halt after thousands of workers were unable to log on to their computers. The outage was blamed on an update to software provided by CrowdStrike, an American cybersecurity firm, which is thought to have caused problems with Microsoft’s Windows operating system. Airports, retailers, and the London Stock Exchange are among some of the businesses that are reportedly affected. 

• The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ruled that Israel’s continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is unlawful and that it should come to an end “as rapidly as possible”.

• Colorado reports 3 human cases of H5N1 bird flu in poultry workers. 

• The Greenland ice cap is losing around 30 MILLION tonnes of ice an hour due to the climate crisis - 20% MORE than what scientists originally thought. 
• 751 Active Fires in Canada right now

• Here’s what Project 2025 would mean for two families’ tax bills:
• A family of 4 making $100,000/year would pay $2,600 MORE.
• A family of 4 making $5 million/year would pay $325,000 LESS.
• Tax hikes for the middle class. Tax breaks for the rich. 
• So says Elizabeth Warren.. 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Globally, June 2024 was the warmest June since directly measured instrumental records began in 1850. It broke the previous record by 0.14 °C (0.25 °F), a relatively large margin clearly outside the range of the uncertainties.

So far, Wall Street does not seem overjoyed by the GOP convention…

(S&P)

(SOX)

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Major Economies Debt as % of GDP

Germany stands out.

Notes today

• Bullets now for sale in vending machines. A Texas-based company has developed vending machines thatsell bullets and installed them at a handful of grocery stores in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alabama, with plans for expansion into other states, according to news reports this week.

•  A problem perhaps?

• Las Vegas just observed its hottest day on record with a scorching 48.9°C (120°F). This is a staggering +1.7°C hotter than the previous record.

• Historic news today - a court in Ecuador rules that pollution ‘violates the rights’ of the river running through Quito. Ecuador is one of the few countries that recognises the rights of nature not to be degraded or contaminated…

• US to resume sending 500lb bombs to Israel while withholding 2,000lb bombs, official says.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Average US Equity holding period

Notes today

• The S&P 500 closed above 5,500 at an all-time high after Jerome Powell cited progress on inflation
• US Job Openings Unexpectedly Increase From a Three-Year Low

• Donald Trump's criminal sentencing has been postponed until September 18 in the wake of the Supreme Court immunity ruling. 

• Only Musk’s Robotaxi Can Save Tesla Investors Now 
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Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny.

 

In a 6-3 ruling split along ideological lines, the Roberts Court  found that presidents are entitled to  immunity for official acts but not for unofficial ones.

• Wall Street appears to like the decision.

How Chinese goods dodge American tariffs

• There are big winners from this tariff avoidance. They include Chinese producers. However, the avoidance also generates a windfall for American consumers. 
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SCOTUS, Bribery Instructions...

BIG Deal

US Supreme Court threw out a decades-old legal doctrine (Chevron decision) that empowered federal regulators to interpret unclear laws, issuing a blockbuster ruling that will constrain environmental, consumer and financial-watchdog agencies - huge win for corporations!

Jon Stewart Biden Trump Debate (I need to call a real estate agent in New Zealand)

Notes today

• The US Supreme Court blocked a Biden administration rule that would mean stringent new emissions requirements on power plants and pipelines in parts of the country to stem ozone pollution that wanders into downwind states… 

• Bloomberg: A wide range of US data showed the economy downshifting as borrowing costs stay high.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

The U.S. House of Representatives just voted 269-144 to ban giving funds to the State Department to cite the death toll from the Gaza Health Ministry.

And this from the ONION

Notes today

• The world uses about 100 million barrels of oil per day.

   

• A wax sculpture of Abraham Lincoln in Northwest DC has melted due to the heat. 
  
  
  

• "Since the Paris Agreement in 2016, the world's 60 largest banks have provided almost $7 trillion of financing to the fossil fuel industry. 

• Scientists once thought the East Antarctic ice sheet, which contains enough water to raise sea levels 52m (170ft), was stable. But now its ice shelves are beginning to melt.

• New AI data centers are coming online so fast that the electricity demand is straining global power grids. 

• The International Criminal Court issues an arrest warrant for former Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu over allegations he committed war crimes in Ukraine. 

• Norway's largest pension fund KLP said it will no longer invest in Caterpillar because of risk that equipment sold by the US group to Israel is used to demolish Palestinian homes and infrastructure, including in the Gaza war. 

• OpenAI takes steps to block China’s access to its AI tools..

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

How the Dash to Ditch Paper Money Created a Playground for Criminals

• “That means you can generate profits from crime and then ultimately get a state pension based on that income,” said Larson, the Swedish prosecutor. “That is extremely offensive.”

48C+

Agriculture cannot survive at 48C + air temperatures and ongoing severe droughts for very long. The bread baskets of #India have been hitting these temps for nearly 40 days straight. There is no #civilization without #Agriculture. Billions of people at risk #Delhi #heatwave.

Peter Dynes

@PGDynes

Notes today 

• National debt will exceed $50 trillion by 2034, budget watchdog estimates.

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

Notes today 

• Elon Musk takes victory lap after 77% of Tesla shareholder votes back his $56 bn pay. (remember - One billion is equivalent to 1000 million)  
• Vanguard supposedly voted in favor of the package..

• Mexico just hit an astonishing 51.9°C (125.4°F), the hottest June day ever recorded in Mexico.
• 1.5c limit - on track..

• Overall, government debt worldwide is four times what it was in 2000. Joseph E. Stiglitz 

• The Supreme Court invalidates a ban on bump stocks enacted after the deadliest shooting in modern U.S. history. 

• “You can also commit injustice by doing nothing.” — Marcus Aurelius 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Notes today 

• America’s 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs:  bad policy, worse leadership
• Return, for a moment, to first principles. As David Ricardo laid out more than two centuries ago and experience has since shown, it makes sense for governments to open their borders to imports even when others throw up barriers. Residents in the liberalising country enjoy lower prices and greater variety, while companies focus on what they are best at producing. By contrast, tariffs coddle inefficient firms and harm consumers.
• JPMorgan is warning that China has a near monopoly on many critical minerals…

• Bloomberg by Ewa Krukowska: This weekend’s European Union elections marked the end of the bloc’s greenest parliament ever after concerns over everything from climate policies to migration gave the populists a boost.
• The Greens, whose rise five years ago helped the 27-nation bloc embrace the world’s most ambitious climate strategy, emerged in all but tatters from a ballot that ended on Sunday. Climate-friendly liberals also suffered a massive blow from voters while far-right nationalist parties strengthened their position in countries from Germany to Italy. 
• A 2021 study found that the AMOC was weaker than any other time in the past 1,000 years. And a particularly alarming — and somewhat controversial — report published in July last year, concluded that the AMOC could be on course to collapse potentially as early as 2025.
• Tipping risk of the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation, AMOC.

 

• And this, from one of the greatest logicians the world has ever known.
• There are other worlds and rational beings of a different and higher kind. The world in which we live is not the only one in which we shall live or have lived. - Kurt Gödel  
• (his 14 points)

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Quick Overview   is up to date