Solar Superstorm
Scientists are finally beginning to properly understand a historic solar storm in 1859. One day, the storm, which was the most potent disruption of Earth's ionosphere in recorded history could happen again

An Eruption of Reality
But beyond a certain level, connectivity becomes a hazard. The longer and more complex the lines of communication and the more dependent we become on production and business elsewhere, the greater the potential for disruption. This is one of the lessons of the banking crisis. Impoverished mortagage defaulters in the United States - the butterfly’s wing over the Atlantic - almost broke the global economy. If the Eyjafjallajoekull volcano - by no means a monster - keeps retching it could, in these fragile times, produce the same effect.

We have several such vulnerabilities. The most catastrophic would be an unexpected coronal mass ejection - a solar storm - which causes a surge of direct current down our electricity grids, taking out the transformers. It could happen in seconds; the damage and collapse would take years to reverse, if we ever recovered. We would soon become aware of our dependence on electricity: an asset which, like oxygen, we notice only when it fails.

Quick Overview

• U.K. Consumer price index rose 3.4%
  

• India raised its interest rate from 5.00% to 5.25%.
  

• Goldman Sachs said that it earned $3.46 billion in Q1, up $1.8 billion YoY
  

• India stopped exporting cotton to protect domestic supplies.
  
  

Germany warns of 'Lehman' crisis if Greece defaults
An administrator of China's foreign exchange fund SAFE – the world's top investor – was quoted by Asia's newswire IGM-FX warning that Greece may set off a chain reaction in the eurozone, and that some states with big debts may default.

Quick Overview

• CitiBank reports its strongest results in three years as Q1 profit surges to $4.43 billion, or 15c a share.
  

• The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 1.4% in March
  

• Construction output in the EU fell 2.9% MoM and 10.2% YoY
  

• July lumber closed up its $10 daily limit for the second day

• The SEC split 3 to 2 along party lines to approve an enforcement action against Goldman Sachs.

• PG announced an increase in the quarterly dividend from $0.44 to $0.4818 per share. P&G has been paying a dividend for 120 consecutive years since its incorporation in 1890.

SEC charges Goldman Sachs with fraud
The Wall Street investment bank, which has consistently denied working against its clients, is accused of creating a complex mortgage investment product which was designed to fail.

How an Icelandic volcano helped spark the French Revolution
Then as now, there were more wide-ranging impacts. In Norway, the Netherlands, the British Isles, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, in North America and even Egypt, the Laki eruption had its consequences, as the haze of dust and sulphur particles thrown up by the volcano was carried over much of the northern hemisphere.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 24,000 last week to 484,000 -- more than expected.
  

• U.S. industrial production was up 0.1% in March and up 4.0% YoY
  

• The Philadelphia Fed's regional index of manufacturing increased from 18.9 to 20.2 in April.
  

• The New York Fed's regional index of manufacturing increased from 22.86 to 31.86 in March -- better than expected.
  
  
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Retail sales jumped 1.6% -- the largest increase since November as consumers stepped up purchases of vehicles and wide range of goods. January sales were revised up to a 0.5% rise from 0.3%.
  

• U.S. consumer price index was up 0.1% in March and up 2.3% YoY.
  
• U.S. business sales were up 0.3% in February
  
• U.S. Inventories rose 0 .5%
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its index of mortgage applications fell 9.6% last week
  

• Industrial production in the EU rose 0.7% MoM and up 3.5% YoY
  

• New Zealand retail sales fell 0.6% in February
  

• Germany's cocoa grind saw its third consecutive year-on-year quarterly gain in the first three months of 2010, increasing by 10.31 percent, the association of German confectionery producers BDSI said on Tuesday.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 2.2 million barrels 354.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.1 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 500,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 84.5% to 85.6% of capacity last week.
  Gasoline demand fell 2.8% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 0.4% YoY.

• U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 7% in Q1 of 2010 from the previous quarter, market researcher RealtyTrac said.

• China’s economic growth accelerated to 11.9 per cent in the first quarter

Quick Overview

• (Dow Jones)--Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Monday cut its three-month gold forecast by 8% and raised its copper price forecast by 4.6%, citing stronger copper demand across Asia, Europe and the U.S.
  

• U.S. exports rose 0.2% in February while imports rose 1.7% . The result was $39.7 billion of net imports, up from $37.0 billion in January.
  

• Canada’s exports rose 2.8% in February while imports rose 0.9%. The result was net exports of C$1.4 billion, up from $754 million in January.
  

• YoY Japan’s producer prices fell 1.3% in March.

• China announced that it will raise fuel prices by 4 to 4.5% tomorrow.
  
  

The Greek people are being punished for Europe's errors
As I write, it appears that EU experts have agreed on a package of €20bn to €25bn at 350 points above the IMF tariff, or 5pc. This achieves nothing. Such wishful thinking has plagued the Greek/EMU crisis from the start. Simon Johnson, the IMF's former chief economist, said Greece needs €110bn to have any hope of pulling itself out of a tail-spin, given that the twin cures of default and devaluation are blocked. Even that may not work. Greece must squeeze a further 13pc of GDP from the budget to stabilise debt costs by 2012, and do so during a slump when every euro of tightening leads to €1.5 to €2 in lost demand. "The risk is of a viscious downward cycle," Mr Johnson wrote in the Huffington Post.

Greece Wins EU45 Billion Aid Pledge to Blunt Crisis
(Bloomberg) -- European governments offered debt- plagued Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates in a bid to stem its fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the euro.

Quick Overview

• Oppenheimer analyst Scott Burk said the very large crude carrier day rate was about $59,000 Friday, up from about $20,000 to $30,000 a few weeks ago.
  

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.8% MoM and 9.8% YoY
  

• U.S. Inventories rose 0.6% MoM but fell 7.4% YoY
  

• Canada's unemployment rate stayed at 8.2% in March,
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was increased from 1.799 to 1.899 billion bushels.
  Soybeans remained at 190 million bushels.
  Wheat was reduced from 1,001 to 950 million bushels.
  Sugar was increased from 1.075 to 1.218 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced from 3.20 to 3.00 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was increased from 140 to 144 million tons.
  Soybeans were increased from 61 to 63 million tons.
  Wheat was reduced from 197 to 196 million tons.
  Cotton was reduced slightly to 51 million tons.
  
  

• The USDA expects beef production to be down 1% in 2010
  
  

• The USDA expects pork production to be down 3% in 2010
  
  

• The USDA estimate's Florida's 2009-2010 orange crop up from 131 to 132 million boxes and the projected juice yield was raised from 1.53 to 1.56 gallons per box

• China ran its first monthly trade deficit in six years in March of $7.24 billion, down from a surplus of $7.61 billion in February. Customs official called the shortfall a blip.
  

Quick Overview

• A Nevada report said YoY revenue from gaming climbed nearly 14% in Feb.
  

• U.S. Jobless claims rose 18,000 last week to 460,000, more than expected.
  

• Japan's machinery orders fell 5.4% in February
  

• Australia's unemployment rate stayed at 5.3% in March
  

• EU retail sales in were unchanged in February and down 0.7% YoY
  

• U.K.’s manufacturing index rose 1.3% in February and up 1.4% YoY
  

Quick Overview

• The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage applications fell 11% last week.
  

• Agriculture’s rise on rumors China will soon allow the Yuan to go up.
  

• GDP in the EU rose 0 .1% in Q4 and fell 2.3% YoY
  

• Services in the U.K. fell from 58.4 to 56.5 in March
  

• The U.S. Energy Department said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 2.0 million barrels last week to 356.2 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 2.5 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 600,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 82.6% to 84.5% of capacity.
  Gasoline demand rose 1.7% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.2% YoY
  
  

Updates resume April 7

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management said services increased from 53.0 to 55.4 in March,
  
  

• U.S. Pending home sales rose 8.2% MoM and up 17.3% YoY
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• The US economy created 162,000 jobs last month as the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.75%

• (FT) China has offered to accelerate free trade agreement talks with India in a bid to balance a burgeoning trade relationship between two of Asia’s largest economies

The IMF should impose default on Greece to end the charade
Real GDP has fallen by less, 12.6pc. The rest is the effect of deflation. But what matters most for debt is nominal GDP. The same debt load has to be financed from a nominal economy that has shrunk by almost a fifth. That is why deflation can be so deadly, as it was from 1930-1933.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 6,000 last week to 439,000.
  

• The ISM index of manufacturing rose from 56.5 to 59.6 in March -- stronger than expected.
  

• U.S. Construction spending fell 1.3% MoM and down 12.8% YoY

• Japan’s Tankan index rose from -25 to -14 in March
  

• Manufacturing index in the U.K. rose from 56.5 to 57.2 in March
  

• Manufacturing index in the Euro area rose from 54.2 to 56.6 in March

• (Reuters) - A Manhattan federal judge threw out a class-action lawsuit accusing Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's of defrauding investors about the safety of $63.4 billion of mortgage debt.

• India's government on Thursday brought into force a new law that makes education free and compulsory for every child from age 6 to 14 --