DeepSeek Challenges Everyone’s Assumptions About AI Costs

The Chinese upstart says its rival to ChatGPT comes at a fraction of the cost, raising questions about the rationale for stratospheric AI budgets.

• US tech might not be so exceptional after all.

 Health Expenditure per capita vs. life expectancy

Will America’s crypto frenzy end in disaster?

• Nassin Nicholas Taleb on Crypto / Bitcoin

 Eggs

• Some 36 million egg-laying chickens have been killed in recent months in order to prevent the spread of  bird flu.

 

Notes today 

• Tesla,  trading at 12 times projected sales (FT), I’m wondering if this will be good for sales?

• FT: Ships carrying missile propellant set to sail from China to Iran, say officials...Intelligence suggests vessels will be laden with sodium perchlorate used in critical weapons. 

• Apartments for $20,000 a month: residents scramble after wildfires deepen LA’s housing crisis. 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today 

• Microsoft is bundling its AI-powered Office features into Microsoft 365 subscriptions, and it’s raising prices.. 
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• Geoffrey Hinton, otherwise known as the 'Godfather of AI', has predicted that artificial intelligence will make society 'worse and worse' by increasing the wealth gap between the richest and poorest individuals.  

• Ten facts about wealth inequality in the USA 

• Trump begins selling a new crypto token..

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Notes today

• Economic growth could fall 50% over 20 years from climate shocks, say actuaries..

• In a steady spectacle of companies retreating from their diversity efforts, Costco Wholesale is standing pat.  
• In the meantime, Walmart is under fire from investors for cutting DEI programs.

Costco

• Canada Readies Tariffs on $105 Billion of US Products If Trump Hits First

• Walgreens' CEO finds that securing merchandise can prevent customers from buying.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Notes today 1/12/2025

 

• Barron’s reports that from 1926 to 2023 Altria Group (formerly Philip Morris) turned a buck (1$) into $2.65 Million. 

• Zuckerberg gets rid of independent Facebook and Instagram fact-checkers 

• French media Le Monde reports that EC President Ursula von der Leyen has decided to put on hold the ongoing investigations against Meta, X, and Apple  and not to open any new cases. 

• Inflation in China slowed for the fourth straight month in December, despite the government’s recent efforts to ease deflationary pressure.

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Fed Model (aka Dow Trend Earnings)

 

 Later

11/5/2024     10 pm  PT - Markets so far

S&P

Australian Dollar

British Pound

Yen

!0 Year bonds

Gold

Euro

 

  Later

Buffetts's Cash Pile

 

Commodities to Equity Ratio

 Quick Overview  is up to date

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Globally, June 2024 was the warmest June since directly measured instrumental records began in 1850. It broke the previous record by 0.14 °C (0.25 °F), a relatively large margin clearly outside the range of the uncertainties.

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Major Economies Debt as % of GDP

Germany stands out.

 

Average US Equity holding period

Notes today

• The S&P 500 closed above 5,500 at an all-time high after Jerome Powell cited progress on inflation
• US Job Openings Unexpectedly Increase From a Three-Year Low

• Donald Trump's criminal sentencing has been postponed until September 18 in the wake of the Supreme Court immunity ruling. 

• Only Musk’s Robotaxi Can Save Tesla Investors Now 
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Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny.

 

In a 6-3 ruling split along ideological lines, the Roberts Court  found that presidents are entitled to  immunity for official acts but not for unofficial ones.

• Wall Street appears to like the decision.

How Chinese goods dodge American tariffs

• There are big winners from this tariff avoidance. They include Chinese producers. However, the avoidance also generates a windfall for American consumers. 
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SCOTUS, Bribery Instructions...

Jon Stewart Biden Trump Debate (I need to call a real estate agent in New Zealand)

Notes today

• The US Supreme Court blocked a Biden administration rule that would mean stringent new emissions requirements on power plants and pipelines in parts of the country to stem ozone pollution that wanders into downwind states… 

• Bloomberg: A wide range of US data showed the economy downshifting as borrowing costs stay high.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

How the Dash to Ditch Paper Money Created a Playground for Criminals

• “That means you can generate profits from crime and then ultimately get a state pension based on that income,” said Larson, the Swedish prosecutor. “That is extremely offensive.”

48C+

Agriculture cannot survive at 48C + air temperatures and ongoing severe droughts for very long. The bread baskets of #India have been hitting these temps for nearly 40 days straight. There is no #civilization without #Agriculture. Billions of people at risk #Delhi #heatwave.

Peter Dynes

@PGDynes

Notes today 

• National debt will exceed $50 trillion by 2034, budget watchdog estimates.

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

Notes today 

• Elon Musk takes victory lap after 77% of Tesla shareholder votes back his $56 bn pay. (remember - One billion is equivalent to 1000 million)  
• Vanguard supposedly voted in favor of the package..

• Mexico just hit an astonishing 51.9°C (125.4°F), the hottest June day ever recorded in Mexico.
• 1.5c limit - on track..

• Overall, government debt worldwide is four times what it was in 2000. Joseph E. Stiglitz 

• The Supreme Court invalidates a ban on bump stocks enacted after the deadliest shooting in modern U.S. history. 

• “You can also commit injustice by doing nothing.” — Marcus Aurelius 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Notes today 

• America’s 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs:  bad policy, worse leadership
• Return, for a moment, to first principles. As David Ricardo laid out more than two centuries ago and experience has since shown, it makes sense for governments to open their borders to imports even when others throw up barriers. Residents in the liberalising country enjoy lower prices and greater variety, while companies focus on what they are best at producing. By contrast, tariffs coddle inefficient firms and harm consumers.
• JPMorgan is warning that China has a near monopoly on many critical minerals…

• Bloomberg by Ewa Krukowska: This weekend’s European Union elections marked the end of the bloc’s greenest parliament ever after concerns over everything from climate policies to migration gave the populists a boost.
• The Greens, whose rise five years ago helped the 27-nation bloc embrace the world’s most ambitious climate strategy, emerged in all but tatters from a ballot that ended on Sunday. Climate-friendly liberals also suffered a massive blow from voters while far-right nationalist parties strengthened their position in countries from Germany to Italy. 
• A 2021 study found that the AMOC was weaker than any other time in the past 1,000 years. And a particularly alarming — and somewhat controversial — report published in July last year, concluded that the AMOC could be on course to collapse potentially as early as 2025.
• Tipping risk of the Atlantic Ocean's overturning circulation, AMOC.

 

• And this, from one of the greatest logicians the world has ever known.
• There are other worlds and rational beings of a different and higher kind. The world in which we live is not the only one in which we shall live or have lived. - Kurt Gödel  
• (his 14 points)

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Quick Overview   is up to date

Research Finds a Shocking Amount of Previously Undetected 'Nanoplastics' in Bottled Water

• They found about 240,000 plastic fragments in a single liter of water, which is more than ten times the expected quantity..
• Unlike microplastics, nanoplastics have the capability to penetrate directly into the bloodstream through the intestines and lungs due to their extremely small size. Once in the bloodstream, they can then travel to various organs, including the heart and brain.