DeepSeek Challenges Everyone’s Assumptions About AI Costs

The Chinese upstart says its rival to ChatGPT comes at a fraction of the cost, raising questions about the rationale for stratospheric AI budgets.

• US tech might not be so exceptional after all.

 Health Expenditure per capita vs. life expectancy

Will America’s crypto frenzy end in disaster?

• Nassin Nicholas Taleb on Crypto / Bitcoin

 Eggs

• Some 36 million egg-laying chickens have been killed in recent months in order to prevent the spread of  bird flu.

 

Notes today 

• Tesla,  trading at 12 times projected sales (FT), I’m wondering if this will be good for sales?

• FT: Ships carrying missile propellant set to sail from China to Iran, say officials...Intelligence suggests vessels will be laden with sodium perchlorate used in critical weapons. 

• Apartments for $20,000 a month: residents scramble after wildfires deepen LA’s housing crisis. 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Notes today 

• Weight-loss jabs linked to reduced risk of 42 conditions including dementia. Range of positive side effects observed among people with diabetes paves way for new treatments

 

• Biden voters passed on Harris because of Gaza, new poll shows.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Notes today 

• HHS Secretary-designate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s intention to ban high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) has reportedly raised concerns among corn farmers.
• Some 8% of U.S. corn is dedicated to HFCS production.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today 

• Microsoft is bundling its AI-powered Office features into Microsoft 365 subscriptions, and it’s raising prices.. 
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• Geoffrey Hinton, otherwise known as the 'Godfather of AI', has predicted that artificial intelligence will make society 'worse and worse' by increasing the wealth gap between the richest and poorest individuals.  

• Ten facts about wealth inequality in the USA 

• Trump begins selling a new crypto token..

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Notes today

• Economic growth could fall 50% over 20 years from climate shocks, say actuaries..

• In a steady spectacle of companies retreating from their diversity efforts, Costco Wholesale is standing pat.  
• In the meantime, Walmart is under fire from investors for cutting DEI programs.

Costco

• Canada Readies Tariffs on $105 Billion of US Products If Trump Hits First

• Walgreens' CEO finds that securing merchandise can prevent customers from buying.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Notes today 1/12/2025

 

• Barron’s reports that from 1926 to 2023 Altria Group (formerly Philip Morris) turned a buck (1$) into $2.65 Million. 

• Zuckerberg gets rid of independent Facebook and Instagram fact-checkers 

• French media Le Monde reports that EC President Ursula von der Leyen has decided to put on hold the ongoing investigations against Meta, X, and Apple  and not to open any new cases. 

• Inflation in China slowed for the fourth straight month in December, despite the government’s recent efforts to ease deflationary pressure.

 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Fed Model (aka Dow Trend Earnings)

 

 Later

11/5/2024     10 pm  PT - Markets so far

S&P

Australian Dollar

British Pound

Yen

!0 Year bonds

Gold

Euro

 

  Later

Buffetts's Cash Pile

 

Commodities to Equity Ratio

 In & Out

 by Matt Davies

Notes today

• France,  Denmark, Saudi Arabia, Norway, Belgium and Sweden have called on their nationals to leave Lebanon in 7 hrs.

• Twitter just activated a setting by default for everyone that gives them the right to use your data to train grok. They never announced it. You can disable this using the web but it's hidden. You can't disable using the mobile app
• Direct link: https://x.com/settings/grok_/settings/grok_settings

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is escalating his rhetoric against Israel, suggesting Turkey could intervene on behalf of Palestinians.

• The US Federal Reserve may signal this week that interest rate cuts are on the way -- although it is widely expected to remain on pause until its next rate decision in September.

• Crypto Industry donors have poured more money into the 2024 election than in all prior cycles combined, according to tracker OpenSecrets ..
• Donald Trump will speak at a Bitcoin conference this month, according to the event’s organizers, an address that would highlight his growing embrace of the cryptocurrency industry.
• Trump calls for US to be 'crypto capital of the planet' in appeal to Nashville bitcoin conference.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

 Quick Overview  is up to date

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Notes today 

• Economist: An IT outage caused businesses around the world to grind to a halt after thousands of workers were unable to log on to their computers. The outage was blamed on an update to software provided by CrowdStrike, an American cybersecurity firm, which is thought to have caused problems with Microsoft’s Windows operating system. Airports, retailers, and the London Stock Exchange are among some of the businesses that are reportedly affected. 

• The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ruled that Israel’s continued presence in the occupied Palestinian territory is unlawful and that it should come to an end “as rapidly as possible”.

• Colorado reports 3 human cases of H5N1 bird flu in poultry workers. 

• The Greenland ice cap is losing around 30 MILLION tonnes of ice an hour due to the climate crisis - 20% MORE than what scientists originally thought. 
• 751 Active Fires in Canada right now

• Here’s what Project 2025 would mean for two families’ tax bills:
• A family of 4 making $100,000/year would pay $2,600 MORE.
• A family of 4 making $5 million/year would pay $325,000 LESS.
• Tax hikes for the middle class. Tax breaks for the rich. 
• So says Elizabeth Warren.. 

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

Globally, June 2024 was the warmest June since directly measured instrumental records began in 1850. It broke the previous record by 0.14 °C (0.25 °F), a relatively large margin clearly outside the range of the uncertainties.

So far, Wall Street does not seem overjoyed by the GOP convention…

(S&P)

(SOX)

 

Quick Overview is up to date

Major Economies Debt as % of GDP

Germany stands out.

Notes today

• Bullets now for sale in vending machines. A Texas-based company has developed vending machines thatsell bullets and installed them at a handful of grocery stores in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alabama, with plans for expansion into other states, according to news reports this week.

•  A problem perhaps?

• Las Vegas just observed its hottest day on record with a scorching 48.9°C (120°F). This is a staggering +1.7°C hotter than the previous record.

• Historic news today - a court in Ecuador rules that pollution ‘violates the rights’ of the river running through Quito. Ecuador is one of the few countries that recognises the rights of nature not to be degraded or contaminated…

• US to resume sending 500lb bombs to Israel while withholding 2,000lb bombs, official says.

Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny

 

Average US Equity holding period

Notes today

• The S&P 500 closed above 5,500 at an all-time high after Jerome Powell cited progress on inflation
• US Job Openings Unexpectedly Increase From a Three-Year Low

• Donald Trump's criminal sentencing has been postponed until September 18 in the wake of the Supreme Court immunity ruling. 

• Only Musk’s Robotaxi Can Save Tesla Investors Now 
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Problem with these notes: some tend to run up against a deeply rooted feature of human cognition - the desire not to think about anything unpleasant…Sorry about that.

Btw, humans can only think about 4 things at once – according to the research team led by University of Oregon psychology professors Edward Awh and Edward Vogel. So, to help, we limit notes. 😉

"Everything will be all right. And, even if it won't be, we'll have the consolation of having lived honest lives." Alexei Navalny.