We face recession without shock absorbers as Berlin loses patience with the eurozone

SP should have acted six years ago when the rot was setting in. To do so now is fatuous.

Gwynne Dyer: Food crisis looms as a result of cutbacks in irrigation A lot of those aquifers are “fossil”, meaning that they filled with water long ago and are now cut off from the surface. They will eventually be pumped dry. Others still recharge from surface water that filters down, but they are almost all being pumped at many times their recharge rate, so they will effectively go dry, too. Then the world will have to make do with the one-third of irrigated land that gets its water from the weather. It won’t be enough.
Obviously, the aquifers won’t all go dry at once. Some are bigger than others, and some have been pumped much longer or more heavily than others. But most of them are going to go dry at some point or other in the next 30 years.

Quick Overview

• The subprime and "A" rating for Lehman  expert S&P downgrades US debt to AA+, late on Friday.

• The U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 9.1 percent in July from 9.2% in June. The total number of unemployed stood at 13.9 million. The number of long-term unemployed who have been jobless for at least 27 weeks stood at 6.2 million, accounting for 44.4% of the total unemployed.

• (Bloomberg) China’s annual corn imports may grow to more than 10 million metric tons in five years as the increase in demand outpaces expansion in output, a researcher at South China Grain Trade Center said.

• U.S. Consumer credit grew 7.7% in June.

Quick Overview

• Powerful typhoon Muifa likely to land in east China over the weekend creating -- damage to corn and soy?

• The Fox, Tea, Republican generated sell-off in Wall Street accelerated on Thursday, with the blue-chip Dow plunging more than 500 points, as investors rushed out of equities.
• IT's Dow Theory prediction is now bearish

• The number of U.S. people initially applying for unemployment aid last week declined to 400,000 in the week ending July 30, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's. THE BIG Employment NUMBER IN THE MORNING.

The Wrong Worries
But the policy disaster of the past two years wasn’t just the result of G.O.P. obstructionism, which wouldn’t have been so effective if the policy elite — including at least some senior figures in the Obama administration — hadn’t agreed that deficit reduction, not job creation, should be our main priority. Nor should we let Ben Bernanke and his colleagues off the hook: The Fed has by no means done all it could, partly because it was more concerned with hypothetical inflation than with real unemployment, partly because it let itself be intimidated by the Ron Paul types.

Quick Overview

• Arctic sea ice is melting at a near- record pace, opening shipping lanes for cargo traffic between Europe and Asia, Russia’s environmental agency said.

• TEA Republicans have erased $1.07 trillion from American equities in less than two weeks. They are good at this – and hard at work on more.

• U.S. factory orders dropped 0.8% in June.

• The number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms rose to a 16-month high in July

US: Obstacles to progress
Indeed, the US spends only 2.4 per cent of gross domestic product on infrastructure – less than half the average of 5 per cent that prevails in European countries – and half the level of 1960

Quick Overview

• (FT) Investors should remember that national accounts must sum to zero. Falling rich world public deficits lead to lower corporate profits, all else being equal. Something Mr. Market seems to know!!

• Chinas Purchasing Managers’ Index rose from 50.7 in July to 50.9 in June – better than expected.

• (Reuters) - Macau, the world's largest gambling market, blew past expectations to post a 48.4 percent rise in July gambling revenue, underscoring unflagging demand from China's newly minted millionaires and burgeoning middle class.

• WXRISK (the weather site) has a category 4-5 hurricane potentially hitting east central China (Corn / Soy)
  
  
• U.S. personal income rose 0.1% in June, while spending fell 0.2% -- on no confidence.

• The U.S. ISM’s factory index fell to 50.9 last month from 55.3 in June.

• The PPI remained stable in the EU 17 in June, rising by 0.1%

• YoY Japan's monetary base rose 15.0 % in July.

• Brazil’s trade surplus rose 74.4% YoY.

• South Korea said it will expand the zero- tariff quota for refrigerated pork imports without limit by the end of September. Previously, 130,000 tons of fresh and frozen pork were subject to zero-tariff imports.
  
  
• US corn futures climb the one-day 30c limit on increasing concerns about hot weather reducing output.
• The Institute of Energy Economics for Japan (IEEJ) reported that alternative energy imports (Coal  ?) would rise significantly if local authorities kept reactors shut after routine maintenance due to safety concerns after Fukushima.
• The 10 sieverts of radiation detected on Aug. 1 outside reactor buildings was the highest the Geiger counters used were capable of reading, indicating the level could have been higher!

How the Billionaires Broke the System
There are two ways of cutting a deficit: raising taxes or reducing spending. Raising taxes means taking money from the rich. Cutting spending means taking money from the poor. Not in all cases of course: some taxation is regressive; some state spending takes money from ordinary citizens and gives it to banks, arms companies, oil barons and farmers. But in most cases the state transfers wealth from rich to poor, while tax cuts shift it from poor to rich.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Treasury will give priority to making interest payments to holders of government bonds if the clowns don’t reach an agreement.
• The House canceled a Thursday night vote on Boehner's debt plan.
• U.S. first time claims for unemployment benefits dropped below 400,000. Claims fell 24,000 during the week to 398,000.
• U.S. home sales rose 2.4% in June.

• The economic sentiment indicator (ESI) for the EU 17 fell by 2.2 points to 103.2

• Bloomberg: “I want to get away from this situation where I’m not even allowed to alert children about radiation exposure,” said Shishido, a 48-year-old Japanese teacher.

• China announced this week that it is considering a 4 point reduction in its 13% Value Added Tax

• Japan's jobless rate out at 4.6%, up from May’s 4.5%.
• YoY Japan’s consumer price index rose 0.4 % in June

• (MarketWatch) -- Verizon Wireless said late Thrusday its board approved the distribution of $10 billion in dividends to its owners Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodafone Group . The dividend will be paid Jan. 31 in proportion to their ownership stakes. Verizon owns 55% and Vodafone owns 45% in Verizon Wireless.

• (MarketWatch) -- Starbucks, boosted by rising customer visits to its coffee shops, reported late Thursday profit rose to $279 million, or 36 cents a share, up from $208 million, or 27 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Sales totaled $2.9 billion, up from $2.6 billion, as same-store sales increased 8%. Starbucks topped the consensus analyst targets for a profit of 34 cents and same-store sales of 5.4%, according to FactSet. Starbucks also lifted its fiscal 2011 outlook and laid out plans to accelerate new store openings. Starbucks shares, trading near 52-week highs, closed at $39.98 ahead of the report. The stock is up 60% over the last year.

• Global population will reach seven billion this year.

Quick Overview

• It beggars belief that the zombies from the GOP_tea are willing to risk national default for the sake of antitax bs! Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan Mitch McConnell all voted for the chief drivers of the debt during the past decade: Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts and Medicare prescription drug benefits. They also voted for TARP!! etc.etc……………………………………………………………………………
• The CME is raising collateral required to trade its Treasury futures  as the U.S. debt stupidity promised to intensify market volatility!
• (Reuters) - The United States will lose its top-notch AAA credit rating from at least one major rating agency, according to a Reuters poll that also found wrangling over the debt ceiling has already damaged the economy.
  
  
  

• Sales of U.S. new single-family homes fell 1.0% in June to an annual rate of 312,000. The median sales price rose 5.8% to $235,000 last month from $222,400 in May. At the current sales pace, there was a 6.3 months supply of new homes.

• The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 U.S. cities fell 4.5 % YoY

• U.S Consumer confidence rose to 59.5 in July from a downwardly revised 57.6 in June.

• (AP) -- The U.S wealth gaps between whites and minorities have grown to their widest levels in a quarter-century. The recession and uneven recovery have erased decades of minority gains, leaving whites on average with 20 times the net worth of blacks and 18 times that of Hispanics, according to an analysis of new Census data.

• German consumer confidence for August declined to 5.4 from 5.5 in July.

• Cotton appears to be bouncing at long term support.
• For contemplation: HealthSpring, (HS): is up over 160% YoY. The Company serves Medicare recipients with a network of hospitals and physicians.
• More food for thought: WellCare (WCG) is up over 110% YoY. The Company operates health plans in multiple states.
• The price of crystal sugar in Brazil, the world's largest producer, climbed 20% this month as supplies remain limited, according to Cepea.

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) “The markets will be under very real pressure at the open because the assumption will be there is really no resolution to this,” Cooper said. “The breakdown in negotiations has crossed the line from the political posturing of the last few weeks to potentially a very real crisis. “The Tea Party is effectively playing Russian roulette with the bond market and they will, with certainty, lose,” Cooper said.

• Kingsman cut by 35m tonnes to 525m tonnes its forecast for cane output in Brazil's Center South.

• Private forecaster has corn yield at 153.5 and beans at 41.3.

• Goldman Sachs said Friday it reduced its estimate of 2011 U.S. corn yield by three bushels to 156 bushels per acre due to soaring temperatures in the Midwest grain belt.

Apocalypse Nigh? The essentials of the long-term crisis are simple. For a generation now, the only essential plank for any Republican candidate is a pledge not to raise taxes and to roll back even the modest sums that the rich and corporations are supposed to send to the US Treasury each year. The second plank is an equally vehement pledge, proclaimed by both parties to keep America strong by throwing money at the Pentagon. Right now the total military/security budget is in the vicinity of $1.1-$1.2 trillion, or 70 -75 per cent of the federal budget deficit.

Barack Obama: The Democrats’ Richard Nixon? Here are a few examples of Obama's effective conservatism:
His stimulus bill was half the size that his advisers thought necessary;
He continued Bush’s war and national security policies without change and even retained Bush’s defense secretary;
He put forward a health plan almost identical to those that had been supported by Republicans such as Mitt Romney in the recent past, pointedly rejecting the single-payer option favored by liberals;
He caved to conservative demands that the Bush tax cuts be extended without getting any quid pro quo whatsoever;
And in the past few weeks he has supported deficit reductions that go far beyond those offered by Republicans.

Further evidence can be found in the writings of outspoken liberals such as New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who has condemned Obama’s conservatism ever since he took office

Quick Overview

• S&P says there's a 50-50 chance of the U.S. credit rating being downgraded.

• Brazil's raised rates, the 5th consecutive increase, from 12.25 to 12.5%

• YoY Japans exports fell 1.6 % in June.

• U.S. homes sales unexpectedly fell 0.8 % in June to a seven-month low.
• Bloomberg: The U.S. Treasury Department is exploring a plan that could help 1 million or more homeowners avoid foreclosure, according to housing market executives.

Quick Overview

• If the US government defaults it would go into default not because it can't pay its bills – like Greece – but because it won't.

• U.S. housing starts in June rose nearly 15%.

• IBM's Q2 revenue rose 12 % to $26.7 billion. That topped $25.4 billion, the average estimate of analysts.

• (FT) As Riyadh increasingly becomes a hungry oil consumer, supply from the world’s biggest producer will ease.

• KO reported earnings of $1.17 for Q2, ahead of estimates -- new high on the move.  
• Romanians recover 64 stolen missile warheads.
• U of I specialists say a state average corn yield in the mid-to-low 150's might be expected this year, compared to last year's 168.7 yield.
• Construction output in the euro zone dropped by 1.1 percent in May
• The IMF urged policy makers to take further actions to contain the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area, warning that a spread to the core euro countries could cause "major global consequence." (Too Obvious)
• I know of tops, double tops, triple tops, but very very few quadruple tops. Probably taken out.
• Chinese leading indicator  rose 0.5 % to 155 in May.

Quick Overview

• In case you missed it --- Obama eliminates Elisabeth Warren as director of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 63.8 in early July, reaching the lowest level since March of 2009, from 71.5 in June.

• U.S. wholesale prices fall 0.4% in June

• Unica, Brazils cane industry association, lowered its forecast for sugar output from the key centre-south region from an original estimate of 34.6m tonnes to just 32.4m tonnes now – down 3.3 % YoYr and the first drop in Brazilian production in more than five years.

• CME will be delisting frozen pork bellies futures and options” effective Monday 7/17/2011.( Rest in peace PB, you’ll be remembered fondly for some excellent trades over the last 40 years).

• July 2011 Chicago temperatures 13th warmest of past 141 years.

Return of the Gold Standard as world order unravels
Mr Bernanke himself was grilled by Congress this week on the role of gold. Why do people by gold? "As protection against of what we call tail risks: really, really bad outcomes," he replied.

Quick Overview

• The Labor Department said that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for jobless benefits was 405,000 in the week ending July 9, a decrease of 22,000 from the prior week.

• As heat wave looms this month, 39% of projected U.S. corn production has received less than an inch of rain.
• Arlan Suderman: High overnight lows contributed greatly to 2010 low corn yields; If 4casts verify, 2011 will set record high July lows in Des Moines

• (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar got a slight boost on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke rejected the possibility of immediate action by the central bank to revive the economy.

• Paul Volcker dismissed the possibility of a return to the gold standard, saying that, among other things, "I don't think there's enough gold in the world."

• (Spiegel) Germans want to end nuclear power and turn to renewable energy, but they keep buying SUVs. Global carbon emissions and oil consumption have risen sharply over the last two environmentally conscious decades -- and the trends will continue, as long as Westerners keep discovering new "needs."

• The end of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko's era appears to be approaching, as thousands take to the streets in Minsk to protest against the country's economic crisis.

• Indian inflation rose to 9.44 % in June.

• Chinas fiscal revenue rose 31.2% YoY to 5.69 trillion yuan (875.5 billion U.S. dollars) in the first half of this year.

• U.S. PPI shows  wholesale prices down 0.4% in June

• Central banks have bought more gold in the first half of this year than in all of 2010 as a long-anticipated reversal in so-called "official sector" sales gathers pace, the World Gold Council said.

• Brazil's National Institute for Space Research  (INPE) released satellite images indicating that Amazon deforestation increased from 103 km² in March and April 2010 to 593 km² in the same period of 2011, a sixfold increase from a year ago.

• S&P warns of downgrade if no debt deal reached

• Google profits rose 36%

Quick Overview

• Christine Lagarde, the IMF's new boss, announced that "nothing should be taken for granted on Greece”. (Brilliant I tell you BRILLIANT)

• The Bank of Japan maintained its interest-rate, as widely expected, and is more upbeat in its overall economic assessment.
• YoY Japan's wholesale prices rose 2.5% in June
• Japanese consumer confidence improved for a second straight month in June. The index of sentiment among households made up of two or more people, rose to 35.3 in June, from 34.2 in May

• Today’s USDA report shows new crop stocks to use for corn at only 6.4%...second lowest in history.

• (Spiegel) The European Commission, estimates that 75 percent of fish stocks in the region are overexploited, and that 30 to 40 percent of Europe's fishing fleet of 80,000 registered vessels will be financially unsustainable in the longer term. The EU has the world's third-largest fisheries sector after Peru and China.

• Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin criticized the U.S. monetary policy on Monday, calling it "hooliganism".  (He should know!)

• Chinas FX reserves rose $197bn in Q1, and rose another $153bn in Q2

•  Moody's cuts Ireland's rating to junk

• Heat is expanding out of the South into the Midwest and Northeast

• Temperatures in eastern Japan, including Tokyo, were 3.8 degrees higher than the 30-year average in the last 10 days of June.

• (FT) Its latest 10-K statement showed that although the corporate tax rate in the US is 35 per cent, News Corp’s effective tax rate last year was 20 per cent. The company earned $2.5bn in profits and still managed to receive a tax benefit.

• Rice new high this evening!

• YoY China's crude oil imports fell 11.5 % in June to a eight-month low of 19.70 million tons, or 4.82 million barrels a day (bpd), the latest government data showed.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The US added just 18,000 jobs in June -- unemployment rose to 9.2%

• House passed $649 billion defense bill, boosts Pentagon spending by $17 billion.

• Canada’s jobless rate held steady at 7.4%.

• (FT) Central banks have pulled 635 tonnes of gold from the Bank for International Settlements in the past year, the largest withdrawal in more than a decade.

• Global Rubber consumption (Includes both natural and synthetic rubber) is likely to hit 25.7 million tons this year, according to International Rubber Study Group (IRSG).
• In its World Rubber Industry Outlook, ISRG said natural rubber consumption alone will hit 11.2 million tons in 2011, tracking last year’s rapid recovery and growth.

• Parts of the Midwest appear to be getting a bit too hot and dry for  corn pollination.

Who owns what? China's murky ownership rules highlight the perils of investing where the law is unclear There are signs, however, that the Chinese government has begun to frown on VIEs.

Quick Overview

• A heat dome appears in the forecast 10 days out – supporting corn/beans

• ECB raises interest rates to 1.5%.

• US private sector jobs rose by 157,000.

• Pork prices are at a seven year high in China and are probably stimulating expansion -- need for soy meal and corn?

• Australia's jobless rate remains at 4.9 % in June for a second month in a row

• A unit of Goldman Sachs took the biggest, $15 billion, single loan from a Federal Reserve lending program whose details have been secret until now.

• (Bloomberg) Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ)’s brokerage borrowed as much as $18 billion in four separate loans from a previously secret program of the U.S. Federal Reserve in June 2008, three months before its parent filed the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

• Source: IT world — Jun 28, 2011
• Once upon a time, the United States led the world in science, inventions, research and development, and technology. Here’s how the U.S. went from world leader to world loser, according to IT World writer Carla Schroder:
• Patents: When you can’t innovate, litigate. Software patents are a drag on progress.
• Education: The U.S. ranks 14th out of 34 OECD countries for reading skills, 17th for science, and a below-average 25th for mathematics.
• Obesity: The U.S. holds the world title for most obesity, at 30.6% of the population.
• Sad “Green” Technology Policies: Our elected persons are doing a fine job at blocking any sort of actual forward movement in modern green tech, and the rest of the world is cleaning our clocks.
• Investing in Prisons, Domestic Spying, and Bombs: The U.S. has the highest percentage of citizens in prison of any country on the planet.
• However, the U.S. can compete by increasing R&D funding by private industry and by taking more effective advantage of the Internet for access to information, easy sharing, easy distribution, and distributed projects, she suggests.
  
  
• The World Trade Organization ruled that China's curbs on exports of raw materials are illegal, upholding a complaint lodged by the United States, the European Union and Mexico.

Please note the new update schedule

Quick Overview

• The Koch brothers corporate facade group Americans for Prosperity (AFP) filed a lawsuit in New York’s State Supreme Court seeking to reverse a core piece of state action on climate change.

• I think the USDA will be caught with their pants down on old crop corn stocks later this summer.

• NASDAQ reports that YoY Macao gambling revenue rose 52% in June

• (Economist) TEPCO’s liabilities range between Yen 4 trillion and Yen 25 trillion. The firm also owes 7.8 trillion Yen to bondholder and banks. If TEPCO goes bankrupt, banks and bondholders take precedence over those affect by the disaster.

• London’s first gold dispensing ATM was installed last week.

• (NYT) The median pay for top executives at 200 big companies last year was $10.8 million. That works out to a 23 percent gain from 2009.

• Brazil may import 204 mi gallons of ethanol this year, vs 120 last year.

• (Spiegel) With the reintroduction of border controls, the Danes are calling into question one of the EU's greatest achievements. Unfortunately, there has been little protest in Brussels and other European capitals. There is growing fatigue regarding European integration -- and that is a bitterly disappointing trend.

• UN's World Economic and Social Survey, says global food production need to jump by 70-100% by 2050 to feed an anticipated 9 billion people.

• Moody's has cut Portugal's credit rating by four notches to Ba2.

Next Update 7/5

Quick Overview

• The total cost of wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan to the U.S. Treasury will run at least $3.7 trillion and could reach as high as $4.4 trillion, according to the research project "Costs of War" by Brown University's Watson Institute for International Studies.

• U.S Pending home sales rose 8.2% in May.
• U.S. mortgage applications decreased 2.7% in the week ending June 24, 2011.

• Greek parliament votes in favor of fresh sweeping austerity measures.

• MoM industrial production in Japan rose 5.7 % in May.

• Chinas pork prices kept their bull run in the week ended June 26 with an increase of 4.5% WoW

• (MarketWatch)The DOE reported a decline of 4.4 million barrels in crude inventories for the week ended June 24. Analysts polled by Platts had expected a decline around 1.7 million barrels. The EIA reported gasoline stocks down 1.4 million barrels, against expectations of an increase of 700,000 barrels. Supplies of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, increased 300,000 barrels, the EIA said. The analysts surveyed had seen an addition of 1.8 million barrels.

• Imports of nickel ores and concentrate by China climbed to a record in May as nickel pig iron producers ramped up output to meet demand from stainless steel makers.

• China exported 175,400 tonnes of stainless steel flat products, up by 21.7% MoM.

• Chinese premier Wen Jiabao pledged China's support for the embattled euro, saying that China will buy Hungarian government bonds and "consistently" support the euro as Europe attempts to fight its way out of a sovereign debt crisis, reported London's Daily Telegraph.

• The economic sentiment indicator for the EU 17 fell by 0.4 points to 105.1.

• The New Jersey Senate voted 33-1 today to ban hydraulic fracturing (fracking), in a move to protect the Delaware River from potential contamination from the risky unconventional gas drilling practice. The Delaware River supplies drinking water for 15 million people in four states. 

• (Barrons 6/29/2011) China has 446 million hogs—more than the next 43 pork-producing countries combined—and consumes 50% of the world's pork supply each year.

Next Update Wednesday

Next Update Sunday 26

PIMCO Founder To Deficit-Obsessed Congress: Get Back To Reality In a prospectus for clients, Bill Gross, a co-founder of investment management giant PIMCO, says members' of Congress incessant focus on deficit -- and in particular, the manner in which they obsess about deficits -- is foolhardy, and a recipe for disaster. What the country needs, Gross said, is real stimulus now, and a measured return toward fiscal balance in the years ahead.

Quick Overview

• Bank JPMorgan charged with misleading investors in mortgage-related security, settles SEC charges for $153m

• U.S Existing Home Sales fell by 3.8% in May, at an annual pace of 4.81 million, down 15.3% from last year’s mark of 5.68 million by the same point in the year.
• The National Average Commitment Rate to a 30 year fixed rate was 4.64%
• The national median home price was $166,500, down over 4.6% YoY
• Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 1% to 3.72 million existing homes for sale
• Distressed homes accounted for 31% of all sales in the month of May, a 6% drop off from last month, and sold at an average of 20% below the median price.

• Corn / Beans turnaround Tuesday is linked to hot and dry US Midwest forecast late next week & uncertainty over what USDA will say June 30 about US 2011 acres.

• (FT) Greek citizens are emptying savings accounts and buying gold.

• Swift Beef Co. agreed to pay a $1.3 million fine to settle allegations the company violated the federal Clean Water Act by dumping pollutants into rivers near its Grand Island, Neb., processing plant.
  
  
• A continuing probe by the Associated Press finds tritium (a radioactive form of hydrogen) has leaked from nearly three-quarters of U.S. nuclear power facilities, including two in New Jersey.

No update today

Quick Overview

• (Reuters) Fitch says if U.S. debt ceiling not raised by August 2 then will put U.S. on rating watch negative.

• (MarketWatch) -- SABMiller PLC said Tuesday that its proposal to buy Foster's Group Ltd. at 4.90 Australian dollars a share ($5.19) is attractive to Foster's Group shareholders. SABMiller said the price represents a significant premium of 14.5% to the price of Foster's of A$4.28 as of 2 June.

• (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Wal-Mart rose Monday following its court victory in a sex-discrimination case. Wal-Mart added about 1% after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that a massive sex-discrimination class-action lawsuit against the retailer cannot move forward in its current form.

• (FT)Three-quarters of the new inflow from China was invested abroad in non-US dollar assets, bank report reveals.

• Tepco rating slashed to Junk by Moody’s

Quick Overview

• U.S. housing starts rose 3.5% in May. However, starts still remained 5.6% below levels seen in March and well below levels needed to turn the industry around.

• Bank chiefs’ average pay in the US and Europe leapt 36 % last year to $9.7m, according to data compiled for the Financial Times, despite variable performance across the sector.

• Moody’s place the government debt of Italy on alert for a possible downgrade.

• Greece has been downgraded three notches to triple C by Standard & Poor’s, just two notches above default.

• Greenspan (the ex chief default facilitator) said that a Greek default was likely.

• A deal isn't yet in sight for the next Greek rescue package, but Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel sought to express unity during a Friday meeting at the Chancellery in Berlin. Both, however, now agree that bank participation should be voluntary.

• The Senate killed the ethanol tax credit in a vote of 73 to 27. These same clowns voted less than one month ago to preserve billions of dollars in taxpayer handouts to the oil industry. This Senate action won’t result in a bill, since the House has to initiate tax legislation.
  (Current subsidies for the oil industry total up to $280 billion annually, representing up to $2 per gallon of gasoline)

• There is some speculation that commercials have bought July corn futures to take delivery.

• Forgers are buying empty Lafite and Latour bottles on eBay for several hundred Euros.

• During the first four months of 2011, the export value of China's agricultural products hit 18.68 billion US dollars, an increase of 34.4% YoY.
• Torrential rains have left huge areas of Hubei and Zhejiang provinces under water, with more than 1 million acres of farmland inundated, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

• The U.S. has hit the $14.29 trillion $ legal ceiling on borrowings and the U.S. Treasury is taking extraordinary measures to buy some time prior to Aug. 2 for Democrats and Republicans to reach a deal and ward off the default risk.

• The IMF warned that Washington and debt-ridden European countries are "playing with fire" unless they take drastic steps to reduce their budget deficits as it cut US growth forecasts.

• BYD Co. Ltd., the Chinese car maker backed by Buffett, said it had received formal approval from China's top securities regulator for an A-share listing on the Shenzhen market.

• California lost 29,200 jobs in May. Despite the job losses, the state's unemployment rate still dropped to 11.7%, from 11.8% the month before.

• (Bloomberg) -- The United Nations nuclear agency’s decision to hold talks about the Fukushima disaster behind closed doors this week ignores the “blindingly obvious” need for greater transparency..

Updates resume June 18

Quick Overview

• Japan's government is considering evacuating more towns affected by the Fukushima Daiichi disaster.

• The USDA cut U.S. new-crop corn ending stocks to 695 million bushels, down 205 million bushels from the previous month estimate = a 19-day supply.
• The USDA estimates global corn stocks at a 42.8 day supply -- the lowest since 1973-74.

• Marksmen could be paid to slaughter Australia's vast population of methane-belching camels that roam the Outback as part of an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

• Radioactive cesium exceeding the legal limit was detected in tea made in a factory in Shizuoka City, more than 300 kilometers away from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Ancient wheat plague threatens world crops anew Whipping winds can transport spores as many as 100 miles (160 kilometers) per day, raising concerns among scientists about where the epidemic could turn up next.

Nuclear fuel has melted through base of Fukushima plant The findings of the report, which has been given to the International Atomic Energy Agency, were revealed by the Yomiuri newspaper, which described a "melt-through" as being "far worse than a core meltdown" and "the worst possibility in a nuclear accident."

• NJ Gov. Chris Christie wants a new nuclear plant in the state to replace one that will shut down.

• In the wake of Fukushima Germany's bets big on renewable energy and shuts  all its nuclear power plants by 2022.

Quick Overview

• OPEC couldn't agree on an increase in production quotas.

• (FT) BP statistical review of world energy shows China accounted for 20.3%t of consumption, surpassing the US on 19%.

• (MW)The Federal Reserve's latest survey of economic conditions throughout the country found slower growth in many regions. Fed banks in Philadelphia, Atlanta, New York and Chicago all reported a downshift in activity. Only the Dallas Fed reported accelerated growth.

• (FT) Dry weather across northern Europe has raised concerns among commodity traders of a crop failure similar to last year's devastating losses in Russia.

• (Bloomberg) -- Wet weather that delayed corn planting in the U.S., the world’s largest exporter, may send global inventories to their lowest in 37 years.

• With few options at hand and his poll numbers sagging, President Barack Obama expressed concern yesterday about the sudden slowdown in the economy but said he was not worried about a second recession and America should "not panic". He’s contemplating a payroll tax break for employers.

10 physical gestures that have been patented
Apple is trying to claim ownership of everything from an infinity gesture on your phone, to some sort of weird thing where you stick three fingers on the screen and wiggle the middle one in a circle.

Next update June 8

UN proposes commodity deal tax to curb speculation
The United Nations has proposed a tax on commodity transactions, and government intervention in markets, to curb the speculation that the organisation believes is artificially lifting prices, and volatility, of raw materials.

Wheat Rallying 20% as Parched Fields Wilt From China to Kansas

Parts of China, the biggest grower, had the least rain in a century, some European regions are the driest in 50 years and almost half the winter-wheat crop in the U.S., the largest exporter, is rated poor or worse.

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• US unemployment rose from 9% to 9.1%, analysts had expected a fall to 8.9%.

• Chinese ratings agency Dagong Global Credit Rating put France's AA- credit rating on negative watch.

• S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index for Q1, showing that the U.S. home prices declined 4.2% in the period to a new low since mid-2002.

• India Plans $12 Billion Highway Expansion.

• Radiation readings inside the Fukushima No. 1 reactor building rose to the highest level yet, almost three months after the disaster started.

Climate change curbs crops Warming has already lowered yields of wheat and corn.
Farmers have produced less food during the past three decades than they would have done were climate change not happening..

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• The DOE reported an increase of 2.9 million barrels of oil. Analysts expected a decrease around 1.9 million barrels.
• The EIA reported an increase of 2.6 million barrels for gasoline inventories. Analysts had expected gasoline inventories to rise 1.2 million.
• The DOE reported a decrease of 1 million for stockpiles of distillates.

• U.S. Factory orders fell 1.2% in April to $440.4 billion after a upwardly revised 3.8% gain in March.

• The number of US people who filed applications for unemployment compensation fell slightly last week to 422,000 from 428,000

• As the E. coli outbreak continues to ravage Germany and other parts of Europe, the World Health Organization said Thursday that the aggressive intestinal bacterium is a new strain never seen before. Meanwhile fears of the illness prompted Russia to ban imports of vegetables from the EU.

• The Canadian Wheat Board released information regarding a possible 4 to 5 million acres of wheat not being planted

• China will encourage coal imports and urge miners to boost output to increase supplies to power plants.
• China's growth is slowing but still looks set to outstrip expectations in 2011, with rapid urbanization, manufacturing and demand for housing stoking its economy, Rio Tinto said.
• China announced that it will raise electricity prices for nonresidential consumers about 3% to offset lofty coal prices.
• Xinhua said that rainfall along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze was down 40 to 60 percent from the average, with the totals being lower than at any time since 1951. 

• Brazil's environment agency gave final approval this week for the construction of the Belo Monte Dam, an immense hydroelectric station in the Amazon.

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• The ISM index of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 53.5% last month from 60.4 in April.

• Macau says gambling revenue surges 42% in May -- MPEL new high on the move

• The Linn Group on Wednesday lowered its forecast of U.S. 2011 corn plantings to 87.233 million acres, from its May 18 estimate of 89.538 million. (NOT ENOUGH!!)

• US Construction spending improved in April, rising 0.4%.

• The unemployment rate in the euro zone remained high at 9.9 percent in April

• India's January-March GDP rose 7.8% YoY

• Moody's warns of possible downgrade to Japan's debt rating.

• Mark Mobius: Total value of global derivatives exceeds total global GDP by a factor of 10

• Japan’s unemployment rate at 4.7% in April.

• Florida orange trees aged over 14 years has doubled to more than 60% so far this century.

• Oil World estimates the German rapeseed crop down 19%.

• The French government weather agency Meteo France said this spring has been both the warmest and the driest on record, with a higher average temperature and less rain than in 1976, which had the most severe drought since the agency began compiling the data.

• China's manufacturing-activity fell to 52.0 vs. forecast of 52.2.

• The Australian GDP fell  1.2% in the March quarter.

• YoY South Koreas CPI rose 4.1% May
   

No update today

Quick Overview

• (Bloomberg) Prince Alwaleed bin Talal said an oil price of $70 to $80 a barrel is in the best interests of Saudi Arabia because it diminishes the urgency in the U.S. and Europe to develop alternative energy sources.

• Russia plans to let the grain-export ban expire July 1. (as expected)

• (Bloomberg) Steel demand in China, the world’s biggest consumer, may rise by as much as a quarter by 2015 compared with demand last year, according to a projection from the China Iron & Steel Association, which represents producers.

• Chinese animal feed manufacturers consumed 74.7 million metric tons of corn last year, an increase of 20% from 2009.

Quick Overview

• Morgan Stanley lifted its Brent oil forecast to $120 a barrel this year.

• The market is watching the Icelandic volcano eruption, with a lot of analysts of the view that the 2010 Russian crop failures were due to the huge volcanic eruption in Iceland during March/April last year.

• The US Department of Commerce reported that Q1 GDP rose by 1.8%, below expectations of 2.2%.

• Minneapolis wheat rose to new 35-month highs. (Disclosure: The Advisor is long)

• Barclays Capital said  Shandong, China's second-ranked wheat-producing province, has received just 12mm of rain since September 2010, indicating that around 40% of the province's wheat crop has been lost".

• The USDA reports the sale of 4.6 million bushels of old-crop corn to China. (Disclosure: The Advisor is long)

• South Korea's consumer sentiment index rose to 104 in May, up from 100 the previous month, the Bank of Korea said

• QoQ U.S. house price fell 2.5 % in Q1

• India's  wholesale price index for food articles rose 8.55% YoY

• Malaysian Bulker Carrier (MBC) is anticipating the dry bulk market to recover over the medium-term with an increase in coal imports by Japan.