Recession looms as Spain crumbles
The eurozone is tipping into a deeper downturn than America itself despite the tremors in the US mortgage industry, and may already be in full recession for the first time since the launch of the single currency.

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• China's foreign-exchange reserves rose 35.7% YoY, to a record $1.81 trillion.
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area fell 1.9% in May and down 0.6% YoY
  

• YoY U.K. producer prices rose 10% in June.
  

• The USDA said:
  64% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent, up from 62% a week ago.
  59% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, the same as a week ago.
  61% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down from 69% a week ago.
  46% of the cotton crop was rated good to excellent, up from 45% a week ago.
  

Paulson Seeks Authority to Shore Up Fannie, Freddie (Update2)
The plan would give Paulson power to buy an unspecified amount of stock in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the official said. He also said he didn't recall any time in the past when the government has taken an equity stake in either company.

Monetarists warn of crunch across Atlantic economies
Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust, says lending by US commercial banks contracted at an annual rate of 9.14pc in the 13 weeks to June 18, the most violent reversal since the data series began in 1973. M2 money fell at a rate of 0.37pc.

"The money supply is crumbling in the US. There was a very sharp lending contraction in the second quarter lending. If the Federal Reserve is forced to raise rates now to defend the dollar, it would be checkmate for the US economy," he said.

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• Thanks to the declining dollar, U.S. Trade deficit shrank to $59.8 billion from $60.5.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the biggest providers of financing for U.S. home loans, tumbled for a third day as concern escalated that the government may be forced to start a rescue of the companies.
  

• The USDA estimates 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks of:
  Corn was raised from 673 to 833 million bushels.
  Soybeans were reduced from 175 to 140 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from 487 to 537 million bushels.
  Sugar was lowered from 1,273,000 to 607,000 tons.
  Cotton was reduced from 5.40 to 5.30 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA estimates 2008-2009 world ending stocks of:
  Corn was raised from 103 to 105 million tons.
  Soybeans were lowered from 50 to 49 million tons.
  Wheat was raised from 132 to 133 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 54 to 53 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA lowered its estimate of 2008 beef production from 26.83 to 26.57 billion pounds
  
  

• The USDA raised its estimate of 2008 pork production from 23.37 to 23.47 billion pounds.
  
  

• The USDA raised its estimate of the 2007-2008 Florida orange crop from 169 to 170 million boxes with a record high juice yield of 1.67 gallons per box.
  

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• YoY U.S. foreclosure filings rose 53%.
  

• U.S. jobless claims were down 58,000 last week to 346,000
  

• Australia's unemployment rate improved from 4.3% to 4.2% in June
  

Senate Backs Wiretap Bill to Shield Phone Companies

Obama voted for the plan.

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• GDP in the Euro area rose 0.7% QoQ and 2.1% YoY
  

• Canada’s Housing starts fell 4.3% from May's pace.
  

• Japan's core machinery orders rose 10.4% -- much faster than forecast
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil were down 5.9 million barrels to 293.9 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were up 900,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were up 1.0 million barrels.
  Refinery use remained at 89.2%.
  Gasoline demand fell 2.1% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 1.3% YoY.
  
  
  
  
• Bill Bonner figures that currently, the U.S. money supply – as measured by M3 – is increasing at an annual rate of about 18%.
  

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• U.S. pending home sales fell 4.7% in May and down 14% YoY.
  
  

• Services in the U.K. fell from +17 to -2 QoQ, the lowest since 1992.
  

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• U.K. manufacturing output fell 0.5% in May.
  

• Germany’s industrial production fell 2.4% in May.
  
  

• The USDA said:
• 62% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent -- up 1% WoW.
  59% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent -- up 1% WoW.
  69% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent -- down 5% WoW.
  45% of the cotton crop was rated good to excellent -- unchanged.

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• India may increase edible oil imports by more than 80 % in the four months to October.
  

• Argentina's House approved the president's sliding-scale grain and soybean export tax plan Saturday, sending the bill to the Senate for a vote. However, farm groups have warned that a Congressional endorsement of the tax may lead them to go back on strike.
  

Insurer Allianz raises pressure on G8 for climate action A climate consultancy, Ecofys, carried out the study on behalf of environmental organization WWF and — interestingly — the insurance company Allianz.
Insurers like Allianz are particularly exposed to the consequences of climate change in the rich world where most of their clients are based. Increasingly violent weather could make it too expensive for them to sell policies to cover business and homes in areas that are particularly to hurricanes and flooding.

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• U.S. factory orders rose 0.6% in May.
  

• Producer prices in the Euro area rose 1.2% in May and up 7.1% YoY.
  

• Australia’s retail sales rose 0.7% in May.
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 2.0 million barrels to 299.8 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 2.1 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 1.2 million barrels.
  Refinery use improved from 88.6% to 89.2%.
  Gasoline demand fell 1.7% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.5% YoY.
  
  

• Rising fuel costs prompt Maersk to cut 2,000 FEU from its Asia-Europe capacity in early July.
  

• Dave Tolleris of WXRisk.com said temperatures in Des Moines, Iowa, will top 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 degrees Celsius) for at least 12 days from July 6 to July 20 with little rain.

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• The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index rose from 49.1% to 49.6% in June
  

• Canada GDP rose 0.4% in April and up 1.2% YoY
  

• The USDA estimated:
  87.33 million acres of corn were planted, down 7% YoY.
  74.53 million acres of soybeans were planted, up 17% YoY.
  63.46 million acres of wheat were planted, up 5% YoY.
  9.25 million acres of cotton were planted, down 15% YoY.
  

• USDA quarterly grain stocks report:
  4.03 billion bushels of corn, up 14% YoY.
  676 million bushels of soybeans, down 38% YoY.
  306 million bushels of wheat, down 33% YoY.
  
  
  
  

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• The CFTC has reiterated it has the power to stop trading in futures in emergencies. Pelosi told the CFTC to use its powers and bring a halt to excessive speculation.
  

• U.S. personal incomes rose 1.9% in May and consumer spending rose 0.8%. All credited to the stimulus checks.
  

• U.S. core rate of personal consumption expenditures rose 0.1% in May and 2.1% YoY.
  

• The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment fell from 59.8 to 56.4 in June,
  

• Canada’s industrial product prices rose 0.6% in May and 2.4% YoY
  

• GDP in New Zealand fell 0.3% QoQ, but rose 3.0% YoY.
  

• YoY the U.K.'s GDP rose 2.3% in the first quarter
  

• YoY Japan's inflation rose 1.5% in May
  YoY Japans household spending fell 3.2% in May
  

• The total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012, encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet, with the highest growth rates in areas such as China, Russia, India and Brazil, according to a report by Jupiter Research.
  
  

• Researchers at the National Institute for Neurological Disorders and Stroke are studying how applying
  gentle electrical current to the scalp can improve learning.
  

Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles
Barclays Capital said in its closely-watched Global Outlook that US headline inflation would hit 5.5pc by August and the Fed will have to raise interest rates six times by the end of next year to prevent a wage-spiral. If it hesitates, the bond markets will take matters into their own hands. "This is the first test for central banks in 30 years and they have fluffed it. They have zero credibility, and the Fed is negative if that's possible. It has lost all credibility," said Mr Bond.

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• U.S. GDP rose 1.0% in the first quarter and up 2.5% YoY.
  

• U.S. existing home sales were at an annual rate of 4.99 million units, up 2.0% in May. At the current sale pace, this represent a 10.8 month supply.
  

• The state agricultural secretariat in Parana, Brazil said that recent frosts there have cut corn production by 1.3 million tonnes, or 20%.
  

• The International Grains Council lowered its world production forecast for corn by 7 million tonnes to 756 million tonnes.
  

• The International Grains Council raised its estimate of 2008/09 world wheat production to a record 658 million tonnes. This is up 8 million from their last estimate.
  

• A Goldman Sachs analyst said investors should sell Citigroup shares short as losses mount from troubled debt.

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• U.S. New home sales were at an annual rate of 512,000 units in May, down 2.5% from April's pace. YoY new home sales are down 37%.
  

• U.S. Durable goods orders were unchanged. Excluding transportation, orders were down 0.9%.
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro area rose 2.5% in April and up 11.8% YoY.
  

• Warren Buffett said growth is slowing and inflation is really heating up.
  

• American Express said business conditions continue to weaken in the U.S. and so far this month credit indicators deteriorate beyond expectations.
  
  
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 800,000 barrels last week to 301.8 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline fell 100,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 400,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 89.3% to 88.6% last week.
  Gasoline demand was down 2.1% YoY
  Distillate demand was down 1.1% YoY.
  
  

• Nebraska Cattlemen and Texas Governor Perry are asking the Environmental Protection Agency to reduce the ethanol mandate to 4.5 billion gallons
  

• India's textile industry is asking the government to freeze cotton exports until the end of this year to prevent a shortage of domestic supplies.
  

• The National Agricultural Statistics Service is conducting surveys in flood affected areas this week to get updated information for next Monday's acreage report. The original surveys were conducted before the severe flooding of the past week.

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• The S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices fell 1.4% in April and down 15.3% YoY.
  

• The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell from 58.1 to 50.4 in June
  

• The Richmond Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing fell from -3 to -12 in June
  

• India's central bank raised interest rates to 8.5% from 8%, and raised reserve ratio requirements to 8.75% from 8.%.
  

• Stats Canada estimated:
  25.1 million acres of wheat were planted, up 16% YoY.
  15.8 million acres of canola were planted, up 7% YoY.
  2.97 million acres of corn were planted, down 13% YoY.
  2.99 million acres of soybeans were planted, up 3% YoY.
  
  

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• The Chicago Fed’s index of national activity improved from -1.23 to -.96 in May
  
  

• Business confidence in Germany fell from 103.5 to 101.3 in June

Scientists find bugs that eat waste and excrete petrol
What is most remarkable about what they are doing is that instead of trying to reengineer the global economy – as is required, for example, for the use of hydrogen fuel – they are trying to make a product that is interchangeable with oil. The company claims that this “Oil 2.0” will not only be renewable but also carbon negative – meaning that the carbon it emits will be less than that sucked from the atmosphere by the raw materials from which it is made.

Morgan Stanley warns of 'catastrophic event' as ECB fights Federal Reserve
Just as then, the dollar has plummeted far enough to cause worldwide alarm. In August 1992 it fell to 1.35 against the Deutsche Mark: this time it has fallen even further to the equivalent of 1.25. It is potentially worse for Europe this time because the yen and yuan have also fallen to near record lows. So has sterling

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• Canada’s retail sales rose 0.6% in April
  

• Mexico's central bank raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 7.75%.
  

• India's inflation rose to its highest level in 13 years, accelerating to 11.05% after a fuel price hike.
  
  

• YoY South Africa’s gold production fell 10.1% in April

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• U.S. leading indicators rose 0.1% in May -- better than expected.
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -15.6 to -17.1 -- weaker than expected.
  
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims fell 5,000 last week to 381,000.
  
  

• China announced they are increasing their subsidized gasoline prices 16% and diesel prices 40%.
  
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 1.0% in May and 2.2% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s retail sales rose 3.5%.
  

• A high-ranking member of the feed industry in China warned overnight that it could face an annual corn-deficit of 400 million bushels by 2010, requiring increased imports. Rapidly increased demand for meat in the Chinese diet is fueling the rise in demand for feed grains and protein, suggesting imports of U.S. corn. Some trade sources have suggested that China may need to begin importing U.S. corn as early as this next year... (Arlan Suderman Farm Futures)
  
  

• Reuters reported that a fungal disease in Indonesia is threatening the quality of 60% of the cocoa crop.

Gold May Rise to $5,000 on Inflation, Schroder Says (Update1)
Demand for gold will also rise as central banks become net buyers for the first time in 20 years, driven by developing countries, he added. Last year, world production of gold sank to the lowest since 1937 as reserves are depleted and few new sources of gold have been found.

Mexican Peso Trims Gains as Calderon Announces Price Freezes
..Calderon said the government and industry groups had agreed to freeze the price of basic items, including tuna, coffee and beans..

The Illusion of Vast Undeveloped U.S. Oil Resources
There has been a relentless stream of discussion on talk radio and articles in the mainstream media that claim that if only all of the U.S. were opened for oil development, we would have plenty of U.S. oil. No amount of evidence would convince those promoting this idea that it is not correct, but there is ample evidence that the U.S. is in terminal decline and opening all remaining lands and waters to oil development would at best only slow the inevitable decline.

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• Canada’s index of leading indicators rose 0.2%

• Construction output in the Euro area fell 0.8% in April and down 2.4% YoY
  
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 1.2 million barrels to 301.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.2 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.4 million barrels.
  Refinery use improved from 88.6% to 89.3
  Gasoline demand was down 1.8%
  Distillate demand was down 0.4%.

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• U.S. producer prices rose 1.4% in May and 7.2% YoY.
  

• U.S. housing starts fell 3.3% from April's pace. It was the smallest number of housing starts in 17 years.
  

• U.S. industrial production fell 0.2% in May,
  

• U.K.'s consumer prices rose 3.3% YoY
  

• Japan's tertiary index rose 1.8% in April.
  

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• The N.Y. Fed’s regional index of manufacturing fell from -3.2 to -8.7 in June, weaker than expected.
  

• Consumer prices in the Euro area rose 3.7% in May
  

• The USDA expects the world's ending stocks of coffee to increase by 4.8 million bags in 2008-2009, to 17.2 million bags, or 13% of annual use.
  

• The Iowa Secretary of Agriculture said on Friday that 2% of the state's corn acres have not been planted and that another 7% were lost to flooding. This is 1.18 million acres of lost production in Iowa alone.