Chart of the day
Average U.S. Real Estate Price

The fallout from a falling dollar

"We seem to have reached a crossroads," says Anthony Chan, chief economist at JPMorgan Private Client Services in Columbus, Ohio. With foreign interest rates on the rise, he says, it will become harder to finance the US current account deficit.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Labor Department said the unemployment rate remained at 4.7% in April. Nonfarm payrolls gained 138,000, less than expected.
  

• Average U.S. hourly earnings rose 0.5% in April and up 3.8% YoY.
  

• Canada's unemployment rate rose from 6.3% to 6.4% in April.
  

• The Sao Paulo sugarcane industry association estimated Brazil's 2006-2007 center-south sugarcane crop at 375 million tons, up from a previous estimate of 363 million tons.
  

• The Bush White House is urging Congress to remove the import tariff on ethanol. Farm-state lawmakers however say they're prepared to fight vigorously any attempt to remove the 54-cent tariff on imported ethanol even though demand for the additive is growing as refiners use more of it in gasoline.
  
  

• The 2006 Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat Tour, estimated the state's crop at 319.2 million bushels, versus 380 million bushels last year.

The truthiness hurts
Stephen Colbert's brilliant performance unplugged the Bush myth machine -- and left the clueless D.C. press corps gaping

U.S. sees IMF role in fixing imbalances

The United States on Thursday said the International Monetary Fund could help in rectifying massive global imbalances, including the U.S. current account and the budget deficits, that pose a risk for the international economy.

Bird flu plan lacks a key detail
The Bush administration's pandemic flu action plan, issued Wednesday, is a good step toward getting the nation ready for a 1918-style flu disaster, health experts say, but it's missing a key element: how to pay for it.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims were up 5,000 last week to 322,000, more than expected.
  

• The U.S. Labor Department said that nonfarm business productivity increased at an annual rate of 3.2%
  
  

• Norway unemployment rate April, out at 2.8%
  

• UK money supply March F, (YoY) out at 12.3% vs. 12.4% expected.
  

• UK PMI services April, out at 59.7 vs. 57.6 expected.
  

• UK official reserves for April, out at $936M vs. $239M expected.
  

• EU Euro-Zone MoM retail sales for March out at -0.8% vs. 0.1% expected.
  

• EU ECB leaves rate at 2.50% as expected.
  
  
  

• The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 53 billion cubic feet last week to 1.904 trillion cubic feet.
  
  
  

Colbert Does the White House Correspondents' dinner:

Republicans agreed to a $70 billion package of tax cuts

Mexico to Allow Use of Drugs

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. index of services increased from 60.5 to 63.0 in April, more than expected.
  

• U.S. factory orders were up 4.2% in March, more than expected.
  

• Australia increased its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percent to 5.75%, the highest in over five years.
  

• The unemployment rate in the Euro zone improved from 8.2% to 8.1% in March
  
  

• UBS said the uptake of Barclays' silver exchange traded fund is exceeding expectations and will likely reach and possibly exceed 100 million troy ounces within the first month.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil supplies were up 1.7 million barrels last week to 346.7 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 2.1 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were down 800,000 barrels.

Quick Overview

• The confidence of U.S. consumers fell to its lowest level this year, weighed down by the high cost of gasoline, ABC News and The Washington Post said in a report on Tuesday.
  

• Senior White House economist Edward Lazear said that proposals to cut the gasoline tax would take energy policy in the wrong direction by encouraging consumption
  
  

• European manufacturing increased from 56.1 to 56.7 in April, the highest in five years.
  

• Manufacturing in the U.K. increased from 51.0 to 54.1 in April.
  

• Brazilian sugar exports totaled 758,200 metric tons in April, down 29.8% from the roughly 1.08 million tons exported in the same month last year, according to preliminary figures issued by the Foreign Trade Secretariat Tuesday.
  
  

• Shares in Archer Daniels Midland Co. surged to a new all-time high on the heels of a 29 percent increase in third-quarter earnings, driven by an increase in demand for processed oilseeds and corn byproducts such as ethanol.

• Concern that mineral-rich Bolivia would extend a nationalization program from oil and gas to other natural resources, like silver, saw investors switching out of mining stocks and into the silver ETF shares."

Former bear turns bullish on global economy

But on Monday, in a note to clients, he said: “I must confess that I am now feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.” (sell everything ?)

Quick Overview

• Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow on Monday said that core inflation is currently contained, but is at the high-end of his "comfort zone," and at the top of his list of worries about the economy.
  
  

• Continued growth in the U.S. current account deficit cannot be sustained, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Jack Guynn said on Monday, adding that economic forces should help correct the imbalance over time.
  
  

• Americans personal income increased at a seasonally adjusted monthly rate of 0.8%, after rising 0.3% in February, the Commerce Department said Monday. Spending climbed by 0.6%, more than expected, after a 0.2% increase the month before.
  
  

• The core rate of personal consumption expenditures was up 0.3% in March and up 2.0% YoY, slightly more than expected. The measure is said to be a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve.
  
  

• The Institute of Supply Management's index of U.S. manufacturing increased from 55.2 to 57.3 in April, more than expected.
  

• Construction spending jumped 0.9% in March, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
  

• The Florida Citrus Processors said there were 88.7 million gallons of frozen orange juice concentrate in inventory in April, down 40% YoY.
  

A Fondness for Fossil Fuels
If we’re to have a hydrogen economy, we have to secure our supplies of natural gas.

US admits Iraq is terror 'cause'
THREE years after its invasion of Iraq the US Administration acknowledged yesterday that the war has become “a cause” for Islamic extremists worldwide and there is a risk of the country becoming a safe haven for terrorists hoping to launch fresh attacks on America.

Leftist trio seals Americas pact
The left-wing leaders of Bolivia, Cuba and Venezuela have signed a three-way trade agreement aimed at countering US influence in Latin America.

Quick Overview

• U.S. First quarter GDP was up 4.8% -- slightly less than expected. YoY, U.S. GDP was up 3.5%.
  

• The U.S. employment cost index was up 0.6% in the first quarter.
  

• YoY the GDP price deflator was up 3.3%.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped from 88.9 to 87.4 in April, weaker than expected.
  

• The Chicago Purchasing Manager' index was down to 57.2 form 60.4 in April.
  
  

• Canada's GDP was up 0 .2% in February and up 3.3% YoY.
  

• YoY the Euro zone consumer prices increased 2.4% in April .
  

• YoY consumer prices in Japan were up 0.3% in March
  

• The International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran was in defiance of the U.N. Security Council.

• Over 1.9 million shares of the silver ETF traded on the first day. This, if you assume that no real flipping occurred, means that 19 million ounces of silver now call the ETF home.
  (Some analysts estimate total world silver stocks at 500 mill oz . So 19 million would be 4%)
  

SEC okays Barclays silver ETF
Each share of the exchange-traded fund represents 10 ounces of silver and they will trade under the symbol SLV, Barclays said in a filing with the exchange. The price of silver has risen 44 per cent this year, in part because investors bet the Barclays fund will boost demand for the metal.

Senators to push for $100 gas rebate checks

Quick Overview

• U.S. Jobless claims were up 11,000 last week to 315,000.
  

• China raised its key interest rate from 5.58% to 5.85%.
  

• Ben Bernanke signaled that after one more interest rate increase the central bank may take a break, perhaps only temporarily, from a rate-raising campaign aimed at keeping inflation at bay.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 80 billion cubic feet last week to 1.851 trillion cubic feet.
  

• A registration statement for the Silver ETF from Barclays Global Investors was declared effective by the Securities and Exchange Commission. The trust is expected to trade under the symbol "SLV”, and should start trading Friday.
  

The Health Report: White House Crisis - Medications Failing America!

She also felt that the remaining loyal 32% of Americans needed to start taking testosterone, upping their aggression level and pushing their belief in both George W. Bush and Jesus onto anybody they encountered.

Quick Overview

• Durable-goods orders increased by 6.1% last month to a seasonally adjusted $230.61 billion, the Commerce Department said. The market was looking for just a 1.6% increase. The unexpected strength marked the fifth gain in durables in six months. A key barometer of business spending - orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft - rose by 3.0%.
  
  

• U.S. new home sales were at an annual rate of 1.213 million units in March, up 14% from February's pace and more than expected, but down 7% from March of 2005. So far in 2006, new home sales are down 8.2% from a year ago.
  
  
  

• The U.K s. GDP was up 0.6% in the first quarter and up 2.2% YoY.
  

• Australia's consumer price index was up 3% in the first quarter.
  

• Argentina's central bank revised its forecast for 2006 economic growth to above 7 percent from about 6 percent in January.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were down 200,000 barrels to 345.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 1.9 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies were up 600,000 barrels.

Percentage of Uninsured Americans Rising
The percentage of working-age Americans with moderate to middle incomes who lacked health insurance for at least part of the year rose to 41 percent in 2005, a dramatic increase from the 28 percent in 2001 without coverage

Iraqi Strife Seeping Into Saudi Kingdom

"Saudi Sunnis are defending Iraqi Sunnis, and Saudi Shiites are defending Iraqi Shiites,"

Quick Overview

• U.S. Consumer confidence fell sharply to its lowest level in two months, once again weighed down by high gasoline prices, ABC News and the Washington Post said on Tuesday.
  

• ECB's Mersch said in Luxembourg that he sees a "gradually strengthening and broadening economy."
  

• Swedish trade balance March, out at 17.5B vs. 13.0B expected.
  
  

• The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by a quarter-percent to 4.00%,
  

• Germanys business confidence index increased from 105.4 to 105.9 in April, the highest reading in 15 years.
  

• South Korea's GDP was up 6.2% in the first quarter of 2006 from a year ago.
  

• The Conference Board's U.S. consumer confidence index rose from 107.5 to 109.6 in April, stronger than expected and the highest in four years.
  

• The National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales were at an annual rate of 6.92 million units in March, up 0.3% from February's. They also said there are 3.19 million homes for sale, some 5.5 months of inventory.

Warning flags flutter on economy
"exits from these illiquid assets may get crowded from time to time."

Quick Overview

• Dollar fell to a fresh 7-month lows against the Euro, and a 3-month lows against the yen after a G7 announcement on currencies makes the first-time statement of singling out China urging it for further currency flexibility.
  
  

• The top U.S. manufacturing lobby group on Monday lauded calls from the Group of Seven rich nations over the weekend for China to allow the yuan to appreciate, and said multilateral pressure on Beijing was more effective than U.S. demands alone.
  
  

• UK Mar Retail Sales were up 0.7% and better than the 0.3% forecast
  
  

• Demand from the stainless steel industry could see nickel in a shortfall of over 27,000 metric tons at the end of 2006, wiping out 2005's surplus and taking market stocks back to historic lows, Macquarie Bank Ltd. said.
  
  

• The average price of regular gasoline jumped 24 cents to $2.91 a gallon in the two weeks ended Friday, according to the latest Lundberg Survey of filling stations released Sunday.
  
  

• Filling stations in the Northeast are reporting scattered shortages of gasoline as the industry struggles to move to more ethanol-blended fuel, the Associated Press reported.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 11.812 million head of cattle on feed.

Scientists find brain cells linked to choice

If choosing the right outfit or whether to invest in stocks or bonds is difficult, it may not be just indecisiveness but how brain cells assign values to different items, scientists said on Sunday.

The End of Dollar Hegemony
The artificial demand for our dollar, along with our military might, places us in the unique position to “rule” the world without productive work or savings, and without limits on consumer spending or deficits. The problem is, it can’t last.