Saturday, November 03, 2012

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(Pritchard) Green shoots are sprouting across much of the Far East as stimulus begins to feed through, greatly reducing the risk of a deep global slump next year

The U.S. unemployment rate rose a notch to 7.9% in October, but employers picked up hiring and work force continued to expand, reported the Labor Department on Friday.

Starbucks (Sbux) the coffee chain raised its quarterly dividend 24%

The eurozone will take at least another five years to recover from the crippling debt crisis that has hampered even Europe's most powerful economy, according to German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

QT Weather: As East floods. C Plains turning into a desert.

(CNN)The German power grid has outages at an average rate of 21 minutes per year. The winds may howl. The trees may fall. But in Germany, the lights stay on. There's no Teutonic engineering magic to this impressive record. It's achieved by a very simple decision: Germany buries almost all of its low-voltage and medium-voltage power lines, the lines that serve individual homes and apartments. Americans could do the same. They have chosen not to.

US economic growth accelerated to an annualized pace of 2% in Q3

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment rose to 82.6 from 78.3 in September. It was at its highest level since September 2007.

Euro zone’s economic confidence in October as reflected by the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) hit the lowest level since September 2009 at 84.5 points.

The U.S. pending-home-sales index rose to 99.5 from 99.2 in August, the National Association of Realtors said. This is still below the 101.9 level reached in July. Economists were looking for a bigger rebound.

Six Italian scientists have been jailed for failing to predict the L'Aquila earthquake which killed 309 people in 2009. The scientists were found guilty of multiple counts of manslaughter and sentenced to six years in prison.
A new ordinance outlaws eating and drinking at historic sites in Rome, punishable by fines of up to $650. China is likely to import 57.5 million MT of soybeans in 2012.

Chinas soybean production is expected to decline 11.6%.

Japan's exports fell 10.3% in September from a year earlier, the biggest drop since the tsunami disaster in March last year, and the fourth consecutive month of decline.

Sara Lee’s IT program manager Michael Holt said the Windows Phone platform offered a "stronger" enterprise solution compared to Blackberry, iPhone and Android handsets -- and announced plans to roll out Nokia (NOK) Lumia 800 smartphones running Windows Phone OS to its workforce.

The Des Moines Register reported that 80 acres of farmland in Sioux County Iowa sold for a record $21,900 per acre. The farm reportedly has a routine yield of 200 bushels per acre of corn and 60 bushels per acre of soybeans Thursday's sale exceeds the old Iowa land sale record of last year at $20,000 per acre. (Looks like some iffy $200,000 per year less expenses/taxes - market/weather risk?)

The International Grain Council has lowered the world corn production to 830 MMT from their last estimate of 833 MMT. The world corn harvest last year was 876 MMT.

Manhattan U.S. Atty. Preet Bharara contends that Countrywide and Bank of America "cast aside underwriters, eliminated quality controls, incentivized unqualified personnel to cut corners and concealed the resulting defects" when they peddled the loans to Fannie and Freddie.

Austrian unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in October, a sharp increase from 6.1 percent in September.

For the 27-nation EU, the jobless rate stood at 10.6% in September, unchanged from last month. It was 9.8 % a year ago.

The British economy is predicted to shrink 0.1% in 2012.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

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  • The Italian Supreme Court has ruled there is a causal link between mobile phone use and brain tumors in a landmark case. The ruling has set a legal precedent that could potentially trigger a deluge of lawsuits.
  • Worldwide Smartphone’s in use top 1 bln (FT)

  • Kiev’s move to halt wheat exports from November 15 is the first by a leading food exporting country this year and raises spectre of 2007-08 food crisis.
  • (Reuters) - The drought that ravaged the United States this year does not appear to be abating and may spread through the winter, government forecasters said on Thursday.

  • U.S. home construction rose 15% in September to an annual rate of 872,000
  • U.S. existing home sales fell 1.7% in September

  • Hollande again called on his European counterparts to move towards issuing euro bonds via mutualized debt to complement the fiscal pact.

  • Overall foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached 5.43 trillion U.S. dollars in August, up from a revised 5.348 trillion dollars in July. It was the eighth consecutive monthly increase.

  • (Bloomberg) U.S. Rich-Poor Gap Widens to most since 1967 as Income Falls. Russia with its oligarchs has greater income equality than the U.S.
  • USA Today: How important is the COLA? From 2001 to 2011, household incomes in the U.S. dropped for every age group except one: those 65 and older. The median income for all U.S. households fell 6.6% when inflation was taken into account, according to census data. But the median income for households headed by someone 65 or older rose 13%. "That's all because of Social Security," Certner said. "Social Security has the COLA, and that's what's keeping seniors above water, as opposed to everybody else who's struggling in this economy."


  • (theguardian) Mitt Romney's current standing in the polls in Massachusetts gives him the dubious honour of being more unpopular in his home state than any presidential candidate in modern history.
A Simple Fix for Farming The results were stunning: The longer rotations produced better yields of both corn and soy, reduced the need for nitrogen fertilizer and herbicides by up to 88 percent, reduced the amounts of toxins in groundwater 200-fold and didn’t reduce profits by a single cent.

Sunday, September 30, 2012

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  • U.S. personal consumption rose 0.5% in August, while personal income rose 0.1%.
  • Consumption accounts for about 70% of U.S. overall economic activities.
  • U.S. savings rate, or personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income, edged down to 3.7 percent from 4.1 percent in July.
  • U.S Consumer sentiment rose to 78.3 -- highest level in 4 months
  • U.S. GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.3%, down from its previous estimate of 1.7%

  • Christophe de Margerie, Totals CEO, says the risk of drilling in the arctic are simply too high.

  • U.S. August new home sales fell 0.3% to 73,000 annual rate.
  • The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 1.2 percent from July 2011, the biggest 12-month advance since August 2010, a report from the group showed today in New York. The median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 1.1 percent gain.

  • (FARM FUTURES) Russia has suspended the import of Monsanto genetically modified (GMO) corn, due to a study done by a university in France that claims the corn causes cancer.
  • Many scientists and nutritionists are skeptic over the results of the study.

  • Agriculture is the direct driver of roughly 80 percent of tropical deforestation, while logging is the biggest single driver of forest degradation, says a new report funded by the British and Norwegian governments.

  • (Reuters) - Hog producer Prestage Farms Inc and two other livestock companies in North Carolina have signed deals to import 750,000 metric tons (826733.48 tons) of corn from Brazil.

  • Rabobank has revised upwards its projected sugar surplus for 2012/13 from 4.6 mln mt to 5.2 mln mt Reuters -

  • Brazil and the US are working together to promote the use of ethanol in a collaboration that could revolutionize global markets.
  • Brazil to raise ethanol blend to 25% in 2013.

  • Oil World thinks the US bean harvest will not be large enough to meet global demand until to the new South America harvest in early 2013. They say, it is possible in theory, the US will become a major importer of soybeans and soy meal from April 2013.

  • Yum approved an 18% increase in dividends.

  • McDonald's (MCD) increased its quarterly dividend by 10%

  • The Dow transports, as everyone who is paying attention already knows, are seriously lagging the Dow industrials.

  • (Spiegel) Most in Germany agree that former Chancellor Helmut Kohl was a primary advocate of European unity. This week, as the country celebrates the 30th anniversary of his first election to the Chancellery, the father of German reunification urged his fellow conservatives to fight for the common currency he helped introduce.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

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  • Chris Rock‏@chrisrockoz Tweets... Mitt Romney: I'm dedicated to the principle that women  gays need regulation, but Wall Street doesn't.

  • The U.S. Fed announced a new round of bond buying and extended the duration of its ultra-low short-term interest rate till mid-2015, in a bid to bolster the country's anemic economic recovery

  • German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that the euro has become more viable following decisions by the European Central Bank's unlimited bond-buying program and German Constitutional Court's nodding to participate in EU's bailout fund.

  • Britain's construction output 10.1% in July

  • U.S. Median household income fell 1.5% YoY

  • An estimated 15% of Americans lived in poverty last year.

  • Michael Cordonniers says, "The early growing season weather in South America is becoming worrisome."Extremely wet in Argentina - Hot dry in Central Brazil"

  • China increased their treasury holdings by 12.4 billion over the last 6 months - Gold holding by 25 billion.

  • Nestle said sales in China will grow about 20% this year because of rising wages and the govt’s policy to boost local consumption.

Sunday, September 09, 2012

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  • EU Central Bank chief Mario Draghi on Thursday overrode German concerns and announced a program allowing for unlimited purchases of sovereign bonds from struggling euro-zone member states.

  • “We are looking at a mega-trend of increasing consumption of meat, milk, eggs,” Christopher Langholz, president of Cargill Animal Protein China, said in an interview, without giving specific forecasts.

  • China, the world's largest consumer of copper, gave the green light for 60 projects worth more than $150 billion that is expected to energize the economy.

  • In 1980, per capita meat consumption in China was 15 kilo. Today that figure is 55-60 kilo.
  • US per capita meat consumption was 77.5 kilo in 2011. The US meat consumption is down some 10% over the last 8 years – probably due to a lack of money. The PCRDI (aka Per Capita real disposable income) is just now back to where it was in 2007.

  • Jill Filipovic‏@JillFilipovic Tweets: Paul Ryan wasn't lying, you guys. If he was telling LEGITIMATE lies, my female ears would have shut that whole thing down.

  • Bernanke reiterated his position that the FOMC stands at the ready to provide help but is not yet adding extra stimulus.
  • US factory orders rose 2.8% in July

  • (Prichard) Spain has suffered the worst hemorrhaging of bank deposits since the launch of the euro, losing funds equal to 7pc of its GDP in a single month during July.

  • The area of the Arctic Ocean covered by floating sea ice is likely to hit a record low next week, with the melting due to continue well into September, according to researchers monitoring the region by satellite.
  • The melting of Antarctic ice could release huge amounts of greenhouse gas trapped under the continent's surface - creating a feedback loop that would accelerate climate change.

  • The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes rose by 2.3% in July. While positive, it was still a lower number than was expected by Wall Street.
  • Sales of new homes in the U.S. rose 3.6% in July to match a two-year high reached in May. US house prices have posted their first annual gain in almost two years, raising hopes that the troubled market can begin to contribute to America's economic recovery.

  • China risks a repeat of Japan's boom-bust disaster 20 years ago as exorbitant property prices combine with a demographic tipping point, a top Japanese official has warned.

  • Kingsman cuts Sugar surplus forecast to 6.7 million

  • Extracting uranium from seawater is closer to becoming an economic reality, which could guarantee the future of nuclear power.
  •  
  • Wired Mag. reports that schools in Estonia are teaching first graders - computer programming.
     

Saturday, September 01, 2012

On strike for another week, if you’re bored – watch this. If you are still bored, watch it again.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

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  • Of the 100 highest-paid CEOs in America in 2011, 26 had CEO pay packages worth more than the companies paid in taxes.    

  • Spanish Gov Bonds yield are back at 6.5% - a six-week low

  • The VIX Index touched a 5-year low of 13.67.

  • U.S. housing starts were at an annual rate of 746,000, 1.1% below the revised estimate of 754,000 in June, but up 21.5% YoY. The activity is still half the pace considered healthy by economists.


  • U.S. industrial production rises 0.6% in July.

  • Brazil will invest $65.8 billion in construction and expansion of its aging highways and railways. Britain's unemployment rate drops to 85% in Q2.

  • British inflation rate rose to 2.6% in July


  • Turkey's jobless rate fell to 8.2% in May -- an 11-year low.



  • Moody’s warns anew about CA cities. The agency’s ratings review comes after three California cities filed for bankruptcy, raising concerns about the outlook for the $4tn municipal bond market

  • Madonna is being sued for promoting homosexuality in Russia.

  • Former British ambassador Craig Murray: 'We need whistleblowers now more than ever' - in support of WikiLeaks editor-in-chief Julian Assange.

Saturday, August 11, 2012

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  • Chris Mooney: Paul Ryan went all in on climate denial in 2009, accusing researchers of seeking to "intentionally mislead the public"



  • GemShares, a Chicago-based financial firm, intends to create an index (ETF), in which diamonds are arranged in 10 layers of comparable quality.

  • Arlan Suderman on Corn: USDA pegged the corn crop at 10.779 billion bushels on a yield of 123.4 bushels per acre. Harvested acres dropped by 1.5 million to 87.4 million acres. I wouldn't be surprised to see harvested acres drop by another 3 to 4 million in the months ahead. In essence, USDA cut the size of the crop by about 2.2 billion bushels. It increased old-crop carryout stocks by 118 million bushels, while also increasing imports by another 45 million. Ending stocks were put at bare minimum pipeline levels of 650 million bushels, necessitating that demand be cut by roughly 1.5 billion bushels to make everything balance. Young fund managers saw the demand cut and assumed that it had already slowed, which added to their incentive to take profits. Yet, the market will eventually have to do the job of rationing demand. New-crop global corn stocks fell to a 52.2-day supply, which is the tightest of the past 39 years. Just shy of 50% of those stocks are in China, where the credibility of the data is in serious question. Furthermore, USDA cut global corn feeding by more than a billion bushels, but only increased wheat feeding by a little more than 140 million bushels. There's a lot that doesn't add up in this sector.

  • Arlan Suderman on Beans: USDA cut the crop to 2.692 billion bushels, essentially matching our estimate of 2.696 billion. The agency pegged the yield at 36.1 bushels per acre, down from 40.5 bushels last month. New-crop ending stocks were put at bare "pipeline levels" at 115 million bushels, necessitating a sharp slash in demand to make things balance. Exports were cut to 1.11 billion bushels; while soymeal exports were dropped by 1,100 thousand short tons. This kind of export rationing will be very difficult without a political embargo or much higher prices, and I don't expect the embargo to happen. First chart resistance for September soybeans is $17, but the fundamentals would argue for much higher prices; perhaps topping $20. USDA pegged 2013 Brazil soybean production at 2.975 billion bushels, up from 2.865 last month and up from 2.406 billion the previous year. That may happen, depending on the strength of El Nino in the month's to come. But I question whether Brazil has the infrastructure to export soybeans much beyond current levels, let alone with corn exports increasing as well.

  • The U.S. federal government registered a budget deficit of about 69.6 billion U.S. dollars in July, bringing the total budget gap for the first 10 months of this fiscal year near the 1-trillion-dollar mark.

  • China's exports fell from 11.3% to 1%, and imports fell from 6.3% to 4.7%. The July trade surplus printed at $25.1 billion, versus $35.5 billion a year ago.

Sunday, August 05, 2012

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  • Arlan Suderman: ..In other words, the production estimates that we released today suggest that corn needs to spike above $10 and soybeans above $20 futures in order to sufficiently ration demand this year.
  • The ongoing US drought has prompted agricultural disaster declarations by USDA across sections of 31 states--including 1,369 counties.
  • Mexico bought 1.5 million tonnes of US corn Friday-- the biggest purchase in 2 decades.


  • U.S. employers hired the most workers (163,000) in five months in July, but an increase in the jobless rate to 8.3% kept prospects of further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve on the table.
  • 4 years of private sector job creation under Obama has exceeded private sector job creation under 8 years of Bush. The problem remains Fed/State/Muni layoffs and RE/construction.

  • Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy inched closer on Friday to asking for an EU bailout for his country, but said he needed first to know what conditions would be attached and what form the rescue would take.
  • 163 billion Euros - or around 16% of economic output - fled Spain between January and May.


  • Bloomberg: The Pentagon has warned its missile defense staff to stop surfing porn on government computers.


  • (Pritchard) China has ditched its reform strategy and prepared a vast stimulus package as the country's soft-landing turns uncomfortably hard, with recession warnings flashing across East Asia.
  • China's capital and financial account swung into a deficit of $71.4 billion from a surplus of $56.1 billion in Q1 as domestic firms and residents increased their holdings of foreign currencies amid the global turbulence.


  • As concerns rise about the state of America’s cities, the SEC says that the 3.7 trillion “illiquid and opaque” Municipal Bond market need reforms. Investors complained about being unable to get the information they needed. Ratings were often years out of date, and they are unable to find out how serious a given city’s problems are.


  • The SP/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.9% in May, topping economists' expectations for a 0.5% gain.


  • WSJ: Home prices in the UK are now 13% below their 2007 peak.


  • U.S. Consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of economic activity, fell 0.1% when adjusted for rising prices, the Commerce Department said.


  • The July Chicago PMI rose a stronger-than-forecast 53.7%


  • Deutsche Bank said it will slash 1,900 jobs in an effort to achieve cost savings of about 3 billion Euros.


  • India's fiscal deficit during the April-June period rose to 1.9 trillion rupees (21.84 billion pounds), or 37.1% of fiscal 2012/13.


  • Greece is fast running out of cash while it waits for its next installment of aid from international lenders.


  • The Marcellus Shale is about to become the most productive natural gas field in the United States, according to new data from energy industry analysts and the federal government.

Monday, July 30, 2012

Only Mario Draghi's ECB can avert global calamity before the year is out Ambrose Evans-Pritchard    Mario Draghi has promised the moon. The European Central Bank’s council had better deliver on his pledge this week. If it does not, the crisis will surely escalate out of control in August or soon after.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

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  • Des Moines Register: Doane Agricultural Services of St. Louis reported from its annual crop tour through Iowa this week that the likely corn yield will be 117 bushels per acre in Iowa. That total production figure would be the lowest total production in Iowa since the 1.426 billion bushels in 1995 and the lowest bushel per acre figure since the 84 bushels in the flood year of 1993. In 2011, Iowa produced 2.36 billion bushels of corn

  • U.S. GDP grew at a tepid annual rate of 1.5 %.

  • U.S. investors withdrew $11.5 billion from domestic stock funds. The largest weekly outflow in over two years.

  • French President Hollande and German Chancellor Merkel expressed their determination to save the euro. The two agreed that the two countries were "fundamentally attached to the integrity of the euro area" and that "they are determined to do everything to protect it".
  • Mario Draghi, the ECB president, vowed to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro within limits of its mandate. "Believe me, it will be enough," he said.

  • Sandy Weill suggested that banks should be broken up, because they are too big, and proposed a return to Glass-Steagall.

  • The Asian Development Bank expects growth in the Pacific region to expand 6 % in 2012.

Saturday, July 28, 2012

Loading the Climate Dice By PAUL KRUGMAN And so it has proved. As documented in a new paper by Dr. Hansen and others, cold summers by historical standards still happen, but rarely, while hot summers have in fact become roughly twice as prevalent. And 9 of the 10 hottest years on record have occurred since 2000.

Saturday, July 21, 2012

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  • The Total U.S. Cow inventory of 39.7 million and beef cow count of 30.5 million are both the smallest ever for the July inventory report, which started in 1973. Te sharp rise in feed prices is negative short term for cattle. The herd liquidation should however be bullish in future month. Keep an eye on the charts!

  • Regarding corn and beans Arlan Suderman says, “I still don't think the trade fully grasps the significance of this year's losses, but I'm seeing a few signs that it is beginning to realize that we're dealing with something significant this time. The bottom line is the market can't fully deal with the rationing job at hand until it accepts the fact that this year's drought is a really big deal of historical significance”.
  • Corn and bean prices have hit new highs - as the drought persists.
  • Slow monsoon threatens India crops..

  • China has released a plan for the development of its new strategic industries from now to the end of 2015, according to a latest statement released by the State Council. The seven new strategic industries include energy conservation and environment protection, new information technology, biology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, new energy and new-energy cars, according to the plan. The seven industries will maintain an average growth rate of more than 20 percent during the 2011-2015 period, the plan said.

  • Spain said it’s economy would shrink by 0.5% in 2013 instead of growing 0.5%.
  • The yield on Spain’s bonds topped 7%.

  • U.S. retail sales fell 0.5% in June.
  • California’s Public Employees Retirement System managed to achieve a 1% return on its money - a bit less than the 7.5% target.
  • U.S. June housing starts hit a 760,000 annual rate -- highest level since October 2008.

  • The Reykjavík District Court has ruled that Valitor, formerly known as VISA Iceland, violated contract laws by blocking credit card donations to Wikileaks, according to a press release posted on the whistleblowers' Twitter account.

  • Cameron doesn't 'see a time' when the government's austerity program will end and is poised to extend public spending cuts until 2020

  • Crude oil stocks decreased 0.8 million barrels Gasoline stocks decreased 1.8 million barrels
  • Distillate stocks increased 2.6 million barrels
  • Ethanol stocks rose to 19.6 million barrels

  • EBay’s net income rose to $692 million (53 cents per share) vs. $283.4 million (22 cents per share). This is a more than a twofold rise YoY. Revenue rose 23.1% to $3.4 billion YoY.


  • YUM revenue rose 12% -- same-store sales were up 10% in China.

  • Confcommercio said that Italy's fiscal burden has reached on average 55% of taxpayer’s incomes this year, ranking first in the world followed by Denmark (48.6 percent), France (48.2 percent) and Sweden (48 percent). Italy not only ranks above the European average, but also is much higher than Japan (30.6 percent) and the United States (26.3 percent), the report also noted.

Saturday, July 14, 2012

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  • China's economy grew at “only” 7.6% in Q2
  • Chinese central bank lowered its one-year yuan deposit rate 25 basis points

  • The euro fell to multi-year lows against a range of currencies on fears of a deepening slump in Italy and Spain.
  • Statistics released by the European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that the eurozone is in a liquidity trap, economists with a German bank said
  • ECB cut its main lending rate by a ¼% to 0.75%
  • The seasonally adjusted industrial production in the 17-member Eurozone saw a 0.6% MoM rise in May.

  • Greek unemployment rose to a new record of 22.5% in April

  • Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to a record low of 8% in the eighth consecutive rate cut this year.

  • The U.S. added a meager 80,000 jobs in June.
  • The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2%.

  • Australia's unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in June (Reuters) -

  • Lawmakers in North Carolina, which has a long Atlantic Ocean coastline and vast areas of low-lying land, voted  to ignore studies predicting a rapid rise in sea level due to climate change and postpone planning for the consequences.

  • Macao's gross gaming revenues for the first half of this year increased 19.8 % to 148.73 billion patacas (18.59 billion U.S. dollars)