Updates resume Feb. 1

Quick Overview

• U.S. existing home sales fell 16.7% MoM

• The Dallas Fed regional index of manufacturing rose from 3.2 to 8.3
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Copper may rise to a record $10,000 a metric ton this year, driven by industrial demand in China and rising commodity investments to hedge inflation, said Shen Haihua, an investment manager at HFZ Capital Management Ltd.
  

• Canada’s lumber production fell 14% YoY.

• (FT) China has experienced the strongest growth in scientific research over the past three decades of any country.

• Sugar rose above 30 cents a pound in intraday trading on news that Indonesia is expecting a 530,976-metric-ton production shortfall at the end of April.
• Indonesia's state plantation company PT Perkebunan Nusantara IX has bought 46,000 metric tons of white sugar at $822/ton -- to arrive no later than April 7.

• More than half a million hectares of Philippine rice lands are threatened by an El Nino-induced dry spell, the Philippine Department of Agriculture said Tuesday. Drier-than-usual conditions have already been noted in some areas, and based on assessment by the department

Quick Overview

• Daily charts of interest: SP500, Dow Theory, Dollar Index, Russian Rubel, Brazilian Real, Euro Currency, NY ADL, NY Volume ADL, Rice.
  

• Weekly charts of interest: SOX, XAU, DJIA, Weekly Adv., London Copper,London Silver, Swiss Franc, Crude CPI adj., Sugar CPI adj., Multiplier.
  

• Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co. said improving economic conditions and reduced costs are giving it flexibility to consider using cash for acquisitions and eventually for stock buybacks and dividend increases.
  

• Now that the U.S. wheat industry appears united in supporting genetically modified crops, it's preparing for the challenge of getting foreign-market acceptance, said U.S. Wheat Associates Director of Policy Rebecca Bratter.
  

• US sugar says 50% of its remaining FL cane is badly freeze damaged.

After the Massachusetts Massacre
Can anyone picture Obama exerting such take-no-prisoners leadership to challenge those who threaten our own economic recovery and stability at a time of deep recession and war? That we can’t is a powerful indicator of why what happened in Massachusetts will not stay in Massachusetts if this White House fails to reboot.

Quick Overview

• Canada’s retail sales fell 0.3%.
  

• U.K. retail sales rose 3.6%
  

• EU industrial new orders rose 1.8% in November, but fell 2.0% YoY.
  

• The USDA said 2.13 billion pounds of beef was produced in December, up 2.5% YoY
  

• The USDA said 1.99 billion pounds of Pork was produced, down 3.3% YoY.
  

• North America's cocoa grind totaled 111,986 tons in Q4 -- down 1.5% YoY
  
  
  

Olbermann: Freedom of speech has been destroyed!

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Supreme Court Rules 5-4 Against Campaign Limitations in The Hillary The Movie Case
In a decision that could have a dramatic effect on the upcoming elections, the Supreme Court has ruled 5-4 in favor of a group of conservative filmmakers..

Quick Overview

• Obama has a new proposal that would force institutions to choose between commercial banking and proprietary trading, while seeking to limit the size of megabanks.
  

• The stock market fell amid ongoing fears about tighter monetary policy in China and uncertainty over Obama's plans to rein in risky bank activities.
  

• US jobless claims rose 36,000 to 482,000 -- more than expected.
  

• U.S. leading indicators rose1.1% in December
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index of regional manufacturing fell from 22.5 to 15.2
  

• The UK posted a budget deficit of 15.7 billion pounds in December
  

• Canada’s wholesale sales rose 2.5% in November
  

• The World Bank increased its estimate of 2010 global growth to 2.7% from 2.0%.
  

• The lineup of vessels expected to load sugar at Brazilian ports in the days ahead rose by one to 31 ships in the week ended Wednesday, Jan. 20.
• The sugar crisis deepened on Thursday after Indonesia, one of the world’s leading importers, failed to buy a single pound of the sweetener in its latest tender.
  
  

• The International Grains Council said world wheat production is expected to fall 1.7% to 674 million tons in the 2009-10
  
  

• Colombian coffee production in calendar year 2009 ended down 32% at 7.8 million 60-kilogram bags
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 400,000 barrels to 330.6 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 3.9 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 81.3% to 78.4% last week.
  Gasoline demand fell 0.2% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 6.8% YoY.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. housing starts fell 4.0% MoM.
  

• U.S. producer prices rose 0.2% MoM and 4.4% YoY.
  

• China is telling large banks to cut back on lending -- the uncertainty over Beijing's monetary policy is depressing stocks and commodities.

• China's GDP grew 10.7% in Q4
  
  

• Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 0.1% in November
  

• Canada’s consumer prices rose 1.3% YoY
  

• B of A lost $5.2 billion in Q4.

• Indonesia has only just enough sugar stocks to last until mid-February, the trade minister said

Quick Overview

• Canada’s index of leading indicators rose 1.5% in December.
  

• YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 2.9% in December
  

• EU construction output fell 0.6% in November and down 6.7% YoY
  

• Japan's consumer confidence fell from 39.5 to 37.6 in December.
  

• Citigroup posted a loss of $7.6 billion in Q4.
  

• Cadbury accepted a sweetened 11.5 billion pound ($19.5 billion) takeover from Kraft Foods Inc.

• India may have to buy at least 7 million tons this season, with white sugar making up about a third of the total, Macquarie Group Ltd. said in a report this month.

• The WWF says on its website that the tiger is one of the top 10 species to watch in 2010, pointing out that there may be just 3,200 of the animals left globally in the wild.

Quick Overview

• (FT)China’s soaring appetites for commodities have created some of the worst traffic jams seen at ports handling bulk cargo. Ships were queuing for an average of 27½ days to collect coal in Queensland, Australia.
  

• The Drewry Global Freight Rate Index (container shipping rates) rose 3 % YoY to November 2009.
  

• Last week’s charts of interest:
  Capsize held support and broke the downtrend.
  Supramax is making a new high for the move.
• Cocoa
• Australian Dollar
• Orange Juice
• T-Bond Rates

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer price index rose 0.1% MoM and 2.7% YoY
  

• U.S. industrial production rose 0.6%
  

• The NY Federal Reserve's index of manufacturing rose from 4.50 to 15.92 in January
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the EU rose 1.4% in December

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose from 72.5 to 72.8

Quick Overview

• U.S. Jobless claims rose 11,000 last week to 444,000 -- more than expected.
  

• U.S. retail sales fell 0.3% in December.
  

• US inventories rose 0.4% in November -- more than expected.
  

• Australia's unemployment rate fell from 5.7% to 5.5% in December
  

• EU industrial production rose 0.9% in November, but fell 6.4% YoY
  

• Japan’s machinery orders fell 11.3% in November -- weaker than expected.
  

• (Bloomberg) India surpassed China as the world’s biggest buyer of palm oil as rising incomes increased demand for fried and processed foods and drought reduced domestic cooking oil production, according to a processor group.

• Intel's net income totaled 40 cents a share, in the three months ended December -- beating expectations for 30 cents.

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Quick Overview

• The Fed’s Beige Book said ten Districts reported some increased activity and improvement in conditions.
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage applications rose 14%.
  

• U.K. Manufacturing was unchanged in November and down 5.4% YoY
  

• YoY Germany's GDP fell 5.0%
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 3.7 million barrels to 331.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline rose 3.8 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 1.1 million barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 79.9% to 81.3% of capacity last week
  Gasoline rose 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 4.0% YoY
  

• India imported 343 tons of gold in 09, down from 420 tons in 08

• Germany's fourth-quarter 2009 cocoa grind rose 9.4 YoY to 95,834 tonnes, the association of German Confectionary Producers said.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. exports rose 0.9% in November while imports rose 2.6%
  

• Canada’s exports rose 1.1% while imports rose 3.9%
  

• China raised bank reserve requirements by 0.5%.

• India's economic growth in 2009/10 is expected to be 7.0 to 7.5%, the prime minister's economic advisor said.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was raised from 1.675 to 1.764 billion bushels.Yields were the culprit, coming in at 165.2 bu/acre, from 162.9 bu/acre last month and 0.7 bu/acre above the highest trade estimate.
  Soybeans were reduced from 255 to 245 million bushels.
  Wheat was raised from 900 to 976 million bushels.
  Sugar was raised from 1.016 to 1.140 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered from 4.50 to 4.30 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn was raised from 132 to 136 million tons.
  Soybeans were raised from 57 to 60 million tons.
  Wheat was raised from 191 to 196 million tons.
  Cotton was lowered to 51.7 million bales.
  
  

• Orange crop was kept unchanged at 135 million boxes, but the juice yield was lowered from 1.63 to 1.60 gallons per box -- the government report was compiled before the freezing weather struck.
  
  
  
• The USDA reduced its 2010 estimate of beef production 2% from 2009.

• (Reuters) Dry bulk ship owners are insisting vessels go via the Cape of Good Hope on voyages from South Africa to Mediterranean ports to avoid pirates in the Gulf of Aden - adding 10 days to shipping times. Utilities in Italy, Greece and Israel which use coal shipped from Indonesia and South Africa are having to pay higher shipping costs for the longer voyages, utility sources said. Around 60 percent of South Africa's 60 million tonnes a year of coal exports goes to Europe.

• A White House plan to slap a fee on U.S. banks to cover the cost of the $700 billion bailout was met with the expected skepticism by bank lobbyists.

• Pakistan will scrap taxes on the import of 700,000 tonnes of white sugar through the private sector to meet shortages and keep prices in check, Ministry of Industries officials said on Wednesday.

• The Philippines is planning to import up to 150,000 tons of refined sugar to cover increasing demand amid a shortfall in domestic production, a regulatory official said Wednesday.
  

America slides deeper into depression as Wall Street revels
Realtytrac says defaults and repossessions have been running at over 300,000 a month since February. One million American families lost their homes in the fourth quarter. Moody's Economy.com expects another 2.4m homes to go this year. Taken together, this looks awfully like Steinbeck's Grapes of Wrath.

Quick Overview

• World 2009-10 coffee production is expected to fall to 123.7 million (60-kilogram) bags, the International Coffee Organization said Monday.
  

• Brazil's orange juice exporters' association, Citrus Br, said it expected the next harvest to turn out between 300 million and 315 million 40.8-kg boxes in Sao Paulo state. This year's harvest will soon finish and has been estimated at 358.4 million boxes by the state's agriculture authorities.
  

• AccuWeather said crop losses in Florida's citrus groves could reach 10%.
  

• The Philippines may import up to 50,000 tonnes of raw sugar to rein in rising domestic prices but officials said on Monday there was enough supply to meet an increase in demand

Quick Overview

• Chinas exports rose17.7 % YoY, the first increase in 14 months, increasing the likelihood that t Beijing will restart the appreciation of the renminbi.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- Paul Krugman said he sees about a one-third chance the U.S. economy will slide into a recession during the second half of the year as fiscal and monetary stimulus fade.
  

• Hank Greenberg blamed new standards for credit-default swaps -- pushed by Goldman or Deutsche Bank AG, he said -- and subprime, housing-backed derivatives sold and then shorted by Goldman as contributing to AIG’s collapse, the newspaper reported.
  

• Soft drinks manufacturers are more and more returning to sugar given the poor health image of high fructose corn syrup.
  

• Growers of sugarcane crop in southern Louisiana could continue to suffer losses the next couple of nights as a hard freeze develops. This is not welcome news after record rainfall in the fall and December deluged the fields and set the harvest behind schedule.
  

• The Parrot, my advisor, anticipates the next S&P cycle low on Feb 1.
  

• Some notable new highs (for the move) last week:
  Coal
  London Zink, Tin, and Lead “Inventories”
  Shanghai Zink “Inventory”
  World copper “Inventories”
  Palladium, Platinum, Copper
  London: aluminum, copper, lead, tin, zinc
  Unleaded
  NY Volume advance decline line
  NY advance decline line
  Orange Juice
  Dow Industrial, Transport, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Nikkei.
  Argentina, Chile, Mexico.
  Sea
  Euro Dollar (Interest Rates)
  Sugar
  Rate of inflation
  
  Some notable new lows (for the move) last week:
  Vxo
  NY weekly advancing issues
  Gilts
  Commercial loans
  Slovakia
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• US Non-farm payroll fell 85K in December –more than expected
  

• U.S. Unemployment stays at 10%
  

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 3.3% in November -- stronger than expected.
  

• Canada’s unemployment rate unchanged at 8.5%
  

• EU unemployment up from 9.8% to 10.0%, the highest since the currency began in 1999.

• EU GDP rose 0.3% in Q3, but fell 4.3% YoY
  

• The Independent is carrying the headline “Ice Land” as Europe, China and the US braced for more snow and below-freezing overnight temperatures, tightening supplies of coal and electricity
  

• Weather.com says temperatures in central Florida will be below freezing one more time tomorrow morning.
• WXRISK.COM says: If the wind drops off overnight on the morning of the 11th is going to be a serious hard freeze across a large portion of central and southern Florida over interior sections. If the winds stay up a little bit overnight the hard freeze will be probably more like a frost.

• The Port of New Orleans bucked the worst economic slowdown in 70 years because its business of providing warehouse space for the London Metal Exchange (LME) expanded rapidly over the last two years, Reuters reported.

• Swiss court ruled that a Swiss financial regulatory order that forced UBS AG hand over account data on several hundred clients was "unlawful," opening up the possibility of clients seeking damages from Switzerland and reigniting the debate surrounding banking secrecy.

Quick Overview

• Shares of General Electric (NYSE: GE) have rallied sharply on apparently no news-- volume has spiked higher.
  

• The EPA today proposed significantly tougher smog standards after reconsidering the Bush administration's controversial 2008 regulations.
  
  
• Japan's new Finance Minister Naoto Kan favors a weaker yen.
  
  

• China raised the yield on three-month bills from 1.33% to 1.37%, the first increase in five months.
  

• MoM EU retail sales fell 0.8% and 2.1% YoY.
  
  

• Australia's retail sales rose 1.4% MoM
  
  

• Brazil's expects its coffee crop to total 46.7 million bags in 2010. The USDA estimated Brazil's 2009 coffee crop at 43.5 million bags.
  

• "We had isolated pockets across the citrus belt of damage--frozen fruit and twig and leaf damage--again, not catastrophic but we did suffer some damage," said Andrew Meadows, spokesman for Florida Citrus Mutual, the state's largest grower representative.
  Another strong cold front is expected to make its way to Florida by Friday, putting the citrus belt back in the danger zone through the weekend. Lows in the 20s and low 30s are expected to be seen Saturday night and Sunday morning.

• Winterkill Threat Through End of Week in 1/4 of Plains Wheat Belt