Tuesday, November 15, 2005

The fog of war: white phosphorus, Fallujah and some burning questions
The controversy has raged for 12 months. Ever since last November, when US forces battled to clear Fallujah of insurgents, there have been repeated claims that troops used "unusual" weapons in the assault that all but flattened the Iraqi city.

Quick Overview

  • Ben Bernanke, the president's chief economist, told senators Tuesday he'll continue the policies of Alan Greenspan if confirmed as Federal Reserve chairman and will make sure the central bank remains free of political influence.

  • Manufacturing growth in New York state rose in November, according to a monthly survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released on Tuesday.

  • The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales were down 0.1% in October, stronger than expected. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.9% on the month.

  • The U.S. producer price index rose 0.7% in October, while prices excluding food and energy fell 0.3%, the Labor Department said Tuesday.

  • The average U.S. retail price of diesel fuel fell for a third straight week, dropping 9.6 cents to $2.602 a gallon, the Department of Energy.

  • A copper trader for a secretive high-level Chinese government agency has disappeared. The position he left behind, rumored to be between 150,000 and 200,000 tons, was taken as a bet that copper would fall just as the industrial metal continued to make new highs.

  • The London Bullion Market Association expects gold to reach $550 per ounce by the middle of 2006. They anticipate the driving force to be a weaker US economy and strong demand from India. Because of jewelry demand gold usage was up 10% in the first six month of 05.

  • YoY China's industrial output increased 16.1 percent in October to 632 billion yuan (78 billion dollars).

  • Canada's manufacturing shipments were down 0.5% in September to C$51.6 billion.

  • YoY Consumer prices in the U.K. increased 2.3% in September.

  • GDP in the Euro zone was up 0.6% in the third quarter and up 1.5% YoY. For the EU-25, GDP was up 0.6% in the third quarter and up 1.6% YoY.

Monday, November 14, 2005

Quick Overview

  • The United States is having little trouble funding its big current account gap, but the shortfall cannot expand forever , Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday.

  • European Central Bank policymakers issued warnings on inflationary dangers in the euro zone on Monday with two central bankers saying the ECB should raise interest rates before prices surge.

  • The International Sugar Organization expects world consumption to outpace production by one million tons in 2005-2006 and by two million tons in 2006-2007.

  • YoY Retail sales in the Euro zone were up 0.9% in September.

  • Overseas investment in Japanese equities fell for a second month in October, according to a government report yesterday

  • New motor vehicle sales in Canada were down 7.9% in September and down 0.5% YoY.

  • We are not finding gold as fast as we are mining it as an industry,'' said Glamis Chief Executive Kevin McArthur. "This is developing into a bit of a train wreck,'' prompting companies to consider more acquisitions to boost output, McArthur said.
Gold output to fall to 80-year low
South African gold output was likely to fall to an 80-year low of 300 tons in 2005 down from 346 tons in 2004, which was the lowest level since 1931, Andisa Securities gold analyst Dr Dave Davis said on Monday.

Saturday, November 12, 2005


Senate Approves Plan to Limit Detainee Access to Courts The Senate endorsed a plan yesterday that would sharply limit suspected foreign terrorists' access to U.S. courts, an effort to overturn a landmark 2004 Supreme Court ruling that has allowed hundreds of detainees held by the military at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to challenge their detentions.




Power Über Alles On Thursday November 10, the Republican-controlled US Senate voted 49 to 42 to overturn the US Supreme Court’s 2004 ruling that permits Guantanamo detainees to challenge their detentions. How dare the US Supreme Court defend the US Constitution and the civil liberties of Americans when we have terrorists to fight, argued the Republican senators. What are civil liberties, the Republicans asked rhetorically, but legal tricks that allow criminals and terrorists to escape.

Friday, November 11, 2005

Housing Market Cooling, Data Say
But since May, the sales prices for the development have fallen -- and units like the one the Edmonds bought are now being sold for $699,900. The Edmonds are facing the prospect of a $100,000 loss in value before they even walk through the front door.

Thursday, November 10, 2005

Chart of the day

Quick Overview

  • DOW ends up 94 on Thursday after robust demand from overseas investors for U.S. government debt signaled confidence in the economy.

  • U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded this month from 74.4 to 79.2, according to the University of Michigan's monthly consumer sentiment index released Thursday

  • U.S. Jobless claims were up 2,000 last week to 326,000.

  • The U.S. trade shortfall grew to a record $66.1 billion in September, as crude oil prices surged and exports dropped by the most in four years. U.S. exports were down 2.6% to $105.2 billion while imports increased 2.4% to $171.3 billion, the Commerce Department reported Thursday

  • The USDA's 2005-2006 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
    Corn increased from 2.220 to 2.319 billion bushels.
    Soybeans increased from 260 to 350 million bushels.
    Wheat remained at 530 million bushels.
    Sugar was lowered from 1.089 million to 667,000 short tons.
    Cotton increased from 6.40 to 6.50 million bales.

  • Assets of the nation's retail money market mutual funds rose by $805.4 million in the latest week to $827.95 billion, the Investment Company Institute said Thursday.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 61 billion cubic feet at 3.229 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now down 3% from a year ago.

  • Canada's exports were up 2.8% in September to C$39.8 billion, a new record high. Imports were up 1.4% at C$32.7 billion, also a record high.

  • Mexico’s Annualized inflation dropped to 3.05 percent at the end of October, its lowest rate since records began and just a shade higher than the midrange of the central bank's 2-4 percent 2005 target.

  • France's GDP was up 0.7% in the third quarter and up 1.7% YoY stronger than expected.

  • Australia's unemployment rate increased from 5.1% to 5.2% in October, the highest in seven months.

  • The unemployment rate in New Zealand dropped from 3.6% to 3.4% in the third quarter, a record low.

  • Japan's machinery orders were up 2.1% in the third quarter to 3.1 trillion yen, stronger than expected and the most in over four years.

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. current account deficit is not sustainable but an adjustment need not be disorderly, provided the government and central bank deliver good policies, a top Federal Reserve policy-maker said on Wednesday.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
    Supplies of crude oil were up 4.5 million barrels to 323.6 million barrels -- 700,000 barrels came from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
    Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 4.2 million barrels
    Supplies of Heating oil were down 1.5 million barrels

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association said its mortgage application index was up 2.3% last week to 661.3

  • In the U.K. consumer confidence fell to the lowest in at least 18 months in October as economic growth faltered and unemployment rose, the Nationwide Building Society survey showed.

  • The Conference Board said the index of leading indicators for Japan increased 0.4% in September to 99.7.

  • China is speeding up plans to allow local institutions to invest overseas, a move that could begin to release a portion of the billions of dollars of foreign currency now sitting in low-return Chinese bank deposits.

  • Industrial production in Brazil fell more than expected in September from August, suggesting that high interest rates took a toll on Latin America's largest economy in the third quarter.

Tuesday, November 08, 2005

Courtesy of www.pfscan.com we have added the S&P500 Bullish Percentage Chart
here

US National Debt by Presidential Term, 1976-2004

Quick Overview

  • Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. builder of luxury homes, reduced next year's sales forecast, saying the housing market is weakening after a five-year boom.

  • Mexican gross fixed investment, a measure of spending on machinery, equipment and construction, soared in August as optimistic businessmen imported more tools than expected to churn out goods.

  • The confidence of U.S. consumers rose in the latest week, buoyed by lower gasoline prices, ABC News and the Washington Post said on Tuesday.

  • The U.S. and China agreed to trade limits on a range of clothing items for three years.

  • Brazil's agricultural exports totaled $36.2 billion in the first ten months of 2005, a new record high, helped by sales of soybeans, ethanol, coffee, sugar, and orange juice.

  • The British Retail Consortium said that retail sales in the U.K. were down 0.2% in the August to October quarter from a year ago.

  • The national average retail diesel fuel price continued to fall, dropping 17.8 cents to $2.698 a gallon, the Energy Department said.

Monday, November 07, 2005

Quick Overview

  • Global energy needs will surge 50% by 2030 and prices will rise if capacity is not significantly increased, according to a report issued Monday by the International Energy Agency, the Associated Press reported.

  • U.S. regular gasoline pump prices dropped 23 cents in the past two weeks to an average of $2.45 a gallon for three grades, analyst Trilby Lundberg reported in her latest survey.

  • A Federal Reserve survey said that one-fourth of U.S. banks reported a decline in mortgage loan demand over the past few months.

  • YoY Japan's household spending was up 1.0% in September, the first increase in six months.

  • Factory production in the U.K. was down 0.3% in September.

Sunday, November 06, 2005

Chart of the day

Four Week Average of Public Short Sales divided by Total Short Sales

Saturday, November 05, 2005

Fuel's paradise? Power source that turns physics on its head
It seems too good to be true: a new source of near-limitless power that costs virtually nothing, uses tiny amounts of water as its fuel and produces next to no waste. If that does not sound radical enough, how about this: the principle behind the source turns modern physics on its head.

Friday, November 04, 2005

Quick Overview

  • With just three months left before he leaves office, Alan Greenspan raised a warning to Congress: The country could face "serious economic disruptions" if bloated budget deficits are not curbed.

  • U.S. payrolls rose by 56,000 jobs in October and the nation’s unemployment rate fell to 5% from 5.1%, the Labor Department said Friday.

  • Rail freight traffic fell for the week ended Oct. 29 but intermodal volume levels continued to climb, reaching the sixth-highest weekly volume ever, the Association of American Railroads reported.

  • The Euro zone unemployment rate improved from 8.5% to 8.4% in September.

  • Factory orders in Germany were up 2.8% in September, better than expected.

  • Brazilian motor vehicle sales fell 4.6 percent and production fell 7.9 percent in October from September, reinforcing expectations that industrial output and the economy may shrink in Latin America's largest country in the third quarter.

  • Canada's unemployment rate improved from 6.7% to 6.6% in October, the lowest in three decades.

  • Berkshire Hathaway Inc. , the investment company run by billionaire Warren Buffett, on Friday said quarterly profit fell 48 percent to the lowest level in nearly four years, hurt by nearly $3 billion of losses from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Thursday, November 03, 2005

Quick Overview

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress Thursday that economic fallout from the recent spate of devastating hurricanes should prove fleeting and the economy remains sturdy.

  • Nonfarm business productivity grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1% from July through September, the Labor Department said Thursday. It grew 2.1% in the second quarter and 3.2% during the first three months of the year.

  • Unit labor costs, which the Federal Reserve watches as an indicator of inflation risks, fell 0.5%, after swelling 1.8% in the second quarter and 2.2%.

  • The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index fell by 0.3% to 128.8 from August's 129.2. The level was 3.3% higher than September 2004.


  • The number of U.S. workers filing initial unemployment benefits fell to a two-month low, because of fewer hurricane-related filings, the Labor Department said. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 8,000 to 323,000 in the week that ended Oct. 29. The four-week moving average fell by 17,000 to 350,500.


  • The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing index, made up mostly of service-related companies, rose to 60.0 in October from a reading of 53.3 in September. Readings above 50 suggest expansion.

  • The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.00%.

  • Retail sales in Australia were down 0.3% in August, weaker than expected.


  • South Africa's gross domestic product was under-estimated between 10 and 20% as the economy had already been growing at more than 6 percent YoY for several quarters, T- Sec economist Mike Schussler said.

  • Brazil's 2005-2006 soybean output is likely to reach 56.7 to-58.6 million tons, the Agriculture Ministry forecasting agency said in the first official estimates for next year's crop. Farmers may cut the area planted with soy by as much as 8 percent to 21.5 million hectares. Brazil harvested 51.1 million metric tons this year.

  • The U.S. DoE said that natural gas supplies were up 29 billion cubic feet to 3.168 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are down 4% YoY.

GE eyes infrastructure growth in developing world
"This century will absolutely stress the infrastructure of the developing world in ways that none of us will ever imagine, because it's never been seen before," said Dave Calhoun, the head of GE's infrastructure business, at an analyst meeting in Cincinnati broadcast over the Internet.

Wednesday, November 02, 2005

Quick Overview

  • Early next year, Cargill will build the largest U.S. sugar refinery in Louisiana with the ability to process 10% of the nation's sugar.

  • Norway's central bank increased its interest rate by a quarter-percent to 2.25.

  • Germany's unemployment rate improved from 11.2% to 11.0% in October with 4.556 million people out of work.

  • Time Warner Inc., the world's largest media company, reported an 80 percent increase in third-quarter earnings Wednesday and raised its stock repurchase program to $12.5 billion from $5 billion.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
    Crude oil supplies were up 2.7 million barrels to 319.1 million barrels
    Unleaded supplies were up 1.0 million barrels.
    Heating oil supplies were down 1.0 million barrels.

Tuesday, November 01, 2005

Quick Overview

  • The Federal Reserve as expected increased the federal funds rate for the twelfth time by a quarter-percent to 4.00%. Signaling that more increases were likely to keep a lid on inflation.


  • The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing activity fell to 59.1 from 59.4 in September, which was the highest in 13 months. Still a sign of expansion and stronger than expected.

  • The U.S. Commerce Department said that construction spending was at an annual rate of $1.12 trillion in September, up 0.5% from August and a new record high.

  • Florida Citrus Mutual said that an early estimate indicates that 13% of the Florida orange crop was damaged by Hurricane Wilma.

  • George W. Bush asked Congress for $7.1 billion in emergency funding on Tuesday to prepare the United States for a feared avian-influenza pandemic

  • World merchandise trade in volume terms is predicted to accelerate by around 7% in 2006, slightly up on this year’s projected increase of 6.5%, the World Trade Organisation said.