Sunday, December 14, 2014

Earth faces sixth ‘great extinction’ with 41% of amphibians set to go the way of the dodo As ecologist Paul Ehrlich has put it: “In pushing other species to extinction, humanity is busy sawing off the limb on which it perches.”

Sunday, November 30, 2014

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  • Swiss Gold Referendum Fails .. 78% vote against. 
  •  China's official PMI slips to 50.3 in November.. below forecast. 
  • Investors are trimming inflation hedges by pull $17bn from commodity index products 
  •  The European Central Bank said that it has begun buying asset-backed securities, as it seeks to get banks to lend and revive the economy. The purchases are expected to last for two years. 

  • China's central bank has cut interest rates on its one-year deposit rate by 0.25%, and its one-year loan rate by 0.4 %. The Bank also said it will allow more flexibility in deposit rates. 

  •  Kraft Foods Group (KRFT) raised dividends 4.7% 

  •  Johnson Controls (JCI) raised its quarterly dividend by 18% 

  •  Intel (INTC) increased its dividend to 96 cents a share - up 6 cents 

  •  (FT) US companies will buy $450bn of their stock this year 

  •  Among the more than 100 experts surveyed in the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, a majority said they don't expect the housing market to normalize for at least three more years....
  •  (Zillow) Millions of Potential New Households Waiting Out the Recovery Many Americans moved in together as housing costs outpaced income over the last decade, resulting in fewer households; if these doubled-up households divide, housing demand will pick up, according to Zillow - 
  • More than a third of U.S. adults were living with roommates or adult family members in 2012, up from 25.4 percent in 2000. - 
  • Household size has risen from 1.75 adults in 2000 to 1.83 adults in 2012. - 
  • In all, the U.S. lost 5.4 million households to doubling up. - 
  • The most potential new households are in places where rent has skyrocketed during the housing recovery, such as some large markets in California and Florida. 
  •  The 2014 National Association of Realtor's: The long-term average in this survey, dating back to 1981, shows that four out of 10 purchases are from first-time home buyers. In this year’s survey, the share of first-time buyers* dropped 5 percentage points from a year ago to 33 percent, representing the lowest share since 1987 (30 percent).  
  •  Buyers searching for real estate will find more homes for sale overall, but supply of lower-priced homes is growing more slowly than high-priced homes in most of the country. 

  • Uranium..Largest weekly price increases since 1996 

  •  UK, US and Swiss authorities have fined RBS, HSBC, Citigroup, JP Morgan and UBS a total of more than £2bn over failings that led to the manipulation of the $5.3 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market. 

  •  The USDA forecasts a drop of 1.41m tonnes in global sugar inventories in 2014-15 – a decline which would be the first since 2009-10. 


  •  (The Independent) As host of the G20 summit of world leaders in Brisbane this weekend, Australia had been looking forward to its moment in the sun. However, Tony Abbott’s government risks becoming an international laughing stock, thanks to its attempts to block discussion of climate change...Mr Abbott – who once dismissed climate change science as “absolute crap” – horrified scientists and environmentalists last month when he described coal as “good for humanity” while opening a new mine in Queensland. 

  •  (Reuters) - The U.S. military's ability to stay ahead of technology advances by other countries and respond to multiple crises around the world is already in jeopardy and will get worse unless mandatory budget cuts are reversed, top U.S. officials warned 

  •  Effective January 17, all research funded in whole or in part by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation must be published in journals that are immediately free-to-access, under a Creative Commons Attribution-only license

Sunday, November 02, 2014

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  •  If the DJIA closes above 17355 "and" the DJTA closes above 8720 InvestmentTools.com view of Dow Theory returns to bullish. 

  • Germany: retail sales in Europe's biggest economy slumped by 3.2% MoM in September. It was the sharpest drop since May 2007, and led by a fall in sales in textiles and clothes which declined by 7.35. 


  •  Italian national statistics institute said that 3.2 million citizens were unemployed in September, the highest level since 2004.The number of the jobless was 48,000 higher in September than in August and 58,000 up on the same month in 2013. Thus the unemployment rate in the country climbed back up to a record level of 12.6%. The jobless rate among people aged between 15 and 24 was 42.9%, 1.9% higher than in September 2013. 

  •  Britain's consumer confidence slipped from minus one (-1) in September to -2 in October.

  •  (Pritchard) The Bank of Japan is mopping up the country's vast debt and driving down the yen in a radical experiment in modern global finance 

  •  Japan's consumer prices for September rose 3.0% 

  • YoY Japan's household spending in September dropped 5.6% YoY (Pritchard)

  • The world has changed abruptly for investors as the US Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China both brush aside deflation warnings and press ahead with monetary tightening 
  •  (WSJ) China is taking a step toward easing its grip on credit cards, potentially resolving a long-running trade dispute with the U.S. and allowing foreign companies such as Visa, MasterCard and other electronic-payment processors to have a greater presence there. 



  •  The U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.5% in Q3

  •  (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve ended its monthly bond purchase program and signaled confidence the U.S. economic recovery would remain on track despite signs of a slowdown in many parts of the global economy. 

  •  U.S Home values are still rising in most markets, but the rate of appreciation has slowed considerably, making the housing market less competitive for buyers, according to Zillow 
  • The U.S. housing market rebounded in September as home sales rose to their highest level of the year. After dipping in August, sales of previously owned homes climbed 2.4% in September to a annual rate of 5.17 million. 

  •  The Central Bank of Brazil's raised the country's annual basic interest rate from 11% to 11.25%, the highest level since November 2011. 

  •  Spain’s unemployment rate fell to 23.7% from 24.5% in Q3, the lowest since the end of 2011 as its economy turned into one of the fastest-growing in the euro region. 

  •  Little fish have never had it so good, according to research showing how mankind’s taste for big fish such as tuna and shark is allowing the anchovy and sardine to flourish.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

World economy so damaged it may need permanent QE


Markets are realising that the five-and-a-half year recovery since the financial crisis may already be over, says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

With the close on 10/13/2014 of Dow Transports at 7717.69, and Dow Industrials at 16321.07, IT’s opinion of Dow Theory is now bearish.

Sunday, October 05, 2014

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  • The U.S. adds 248,000 new jobs in Sept. - the jobless rate falls to 5.9 % 


  • Chinas PMI of non-manufacturing sectors out at 54% last month, down 0.4% from August. 

  • The Aral Sea, once the fourth largest lake in the world, is now completely dry…………… 

  •  The ISM said its manufacturing index dropped to 56.6% last month from a three-month high of 59% in August 

  • The IEA says world to add 200 gigawatts of solar power every year from 2025 onwards under the right policies, more than the entire stock in the world today. 

  • Eurozone jobless rate stable at 11.5% in August 

  • Eurozone annual inflation down to 0.3% in September 

  • U.S. airline stocks fell as investors fretted that news of a first Ebola case in Texas would discourage people from flying. 

  • U.S. Consumer spending rose 0.5% in August 

  • The U.S. pending home sales index dropped 1 % after a 3.2% increase in July, the National Association of Realtors said. 





  • Chinas preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index from HSBC was at 50.5, matching the highest estimates in a Bloomberg survey 

  •  U.S. existing-home sales fell 1.8% in August 

  • S. Korea's national debt rises to 34.3 pct of GDP 

  •  G20 vows to boost global economic growth by 1.8 pct 

  • Brazil lowers growth forecast to 0.9% 

  • (Reuters) - New international tax rules proposed could eliminate structures that have allowed companies such as Google Inc and Amazon.com Inc to shave billions of dollars off their tax bills....The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) announced a series of measures that, if implemented by members, could stop companies from employing many commonly-used practices to shift profits into tax havens. 

  • While America spends $76,000 per soldier each year, EU states are down to $18,000, largely earmarked for pay and pensions, according to the Institute for Statecraft. Almost nothing is being spent on new equipment. Europe has slashed defence budgets by $70bn over the past two years even as Russia blitzes $600bn on war-fighting capabilities by 2020 and turns itself into a militarised state, a Sparta with nuclear weapons. 

Sunday, August 31, 2014

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  • The U.S. GDP grew at 4.2 % in Q2 

  • Bloomberg: Rallies from Brazil to Japan and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s first trip above 2,000 sent the value of global equities to a record $66 trillion. 
  • The value of equities globally has soared from $25 trillion in March 2009. 
  • Stocks were valued at $63 trillion at the 2007 peak, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 
  • (Reuters) Investors in U.S.-based funds poured $2.6 billion into stock funds in the week ended Aug. 20 on a rebound in risk appetite, data from the Investment Company Institute showed. 

  • While the momentum has slowed to a rise of 1%, U.S. house prices remained on an upward track in Q2. 

  •  Use brains, stay in California: Through the first half of this year, about $13.6 billion of venture capital poured into California. Texas took in $700 million. Get this: San Diego collected $484 million — almost as much as the whole state of Texas. There were 52 deals in San Diego, 88 in Texas. 

  • More than one-third of mortgaged homeowners have effective “negative equity” or less than 20% equity in their home, according to a Zillow analysis. 

  •  U.S. Consumer confidence index rose to 92.4% the highest level since 2007. 
  • U.S Durable-goods orders rose by a record 22.6% in July 

  •  The rate of U.S. credit card payments at least 90 days overdue fell to 1.16% in Q2 – the lowest level in at least seven years. 

  •  Japan's consumer prices rose 3.3% in July 


  •  (Reuters) - Pressure is building within the Federal Reserve for officials to move as early as next month to more clearly acknowledge improvements in the U.S. economy and lay the groundwork for the central bank’s first interest rate hike in nearly a decade. 
  •  (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve has agreed to use interest rates on excess reserves as its main tool to set the federal funds rate and the bank plans to target a range instead of a precise number when it eventually raises rates, according to minutes of its July 29-30 meeting released Wednesday. For example, the bank now has a fed funds target of zero to 0.25%. In the past, the Fed would target a single number such as 3% or 4.5%. As expected, the central bank gave no timetable on when it expects to start raising the fed funds rate. Most analysts believe the Fed will wait until mid-2015 or so. Excess reserves refers to short-term assets that private banks keep inside the Fed. 

  • The time has come for France to resist Germany's "obsession" with austerity and promote alternative policies across the euro zone that support household consumption, French Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg said. 

  • UK manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 52.5 from 54.8 in July

  • Spain has raised 1 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in its first-ever 50-year bond issue. The bond, due on Oct. 31, 2064, has a 4 % coupon

  • Spiegel reported  that   Merkel is unhappy with European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi for apparently proposing a greater emphasis on fiscal stimulus over austerity in order to boost growth in Europe.

  • Merkel has told German lawmakers that arming Kurdish fighters battling Islamic extremists in Iraq wasn't an easy decision but is in her country's interest


  • (Spiegel) Israel invests more money in research than most other countries -- and in no other place are research institutes, the defense industry, the army and politics as interwoven. The result is a high-tech weapons factory that successfully exports its goods globally.

  • The Unprotected: A Gaza Family Destroyed by Israeli Bombs... For an entire week, eight people -- women, children and an elderly man -- were trapped in their house in Gaza. They couldn't leave and nobody could help. An hour before the cease-fire, the family was wiped out by Israeli bombs.
  • Russia launched construction of a gas pipeline to China in a $400 billion deal, and plans  to  deliver 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas  for a period of 30 years through the 2,485 mile long pipeline.

  • With fears of Moscow growing after its intrusion in Ukraine, NATO member states in Eastern Europe would like NATO to direct a planned missile-defense system against Russia as well.

Sunday, August 03, 2014

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  • The Labor Department has U.S. hourly wages growing at 2% YoY. 

  • Argentina threatens to take US to The Hague after defaulting on its debts for the second time in 12 years. 

  • China's non-manufacturing activity slightly slowed in July, with the sector's purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropping to 54.2 from 55 in June. 
  •  The Chinese economy is expected to grow about 7.5% this year 

  • Eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) held steady at June's seven-month low of 51.8, as ongoing expansion was partly offset by a deeper downturn by French manufacturers 

  • Some 209,000 new U.S. jobs were added in July, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 % 

  • (DJ) Microsoft General Counsel Brad Smith says company was planning to appeal a federal judge's decision ordering the company to turn over customer email stored in a company data center in Ireland. Verizon, AT&T, Apple and Cisco filed briefs supporting Microsoft, reflecting their shared concern that compliance with U.S. requests for data held abroad could alienate foreign governments, which are placing more pressure on service providers to shore up customer privacy. That could also cost them billions of dollars in business. 


  •  The number of people who applied for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits in the week that ended July 19 fell by 19,000 to 284,000 -- the lowest level since February 2006 

  • Australia has approved the Adani's Carmichael coalmine and rail project that will dig up and transport about 60m tonnes of coal a year for export. Greenpeace has claimed that coal from the mine will add 128m tonnes of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere per year. Senator Larissa Waters said: "History will look back on the Abbott government’s decision as an act of climate criminality. 
  •  (MarketWatch) -- A preliminary reading of China's manufacturing sector has hit an 18-month high this month, as work orders appear to be picking up pace... 

  •  (MarketWatch) -- Sales of new single-family homes fell 8.1% in June to 406,000, the slowest pace in three months, with drops across the country... 

  • “While the 66 countries that account for 88 per cent of global emissions have passed laws to address global warming, Australia is repealing them.” Australia became the first country in the world to abolish a price on carbon - and this vote to repeal its tax on carbon dioxide emissions is a setback to establishing a similar charge in the U.S. - where Republicans and fossilized interests still criticize its costs and carry on to question if carbon dioxide from human activity causes climate change. 

  • The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said that it is proposing restrictions that would essentially block development of a planned massive gold-and-copper mine near the headwaters of a premier salmon fishery in Alaska. 

  • The Obama administration is proposing a ban on “inversion deals,” retroactive to May 2014, in which U.S. companies (Abbvie, Walgreen etc.) buy foreign ones and move corporate headquarters abroad to escape U.S. tax laws. 

  • Macquarie estimates U.S. corn cost of production at $4.12 a bushel. 

  •  Pink Floyd to Release First New Album in 20 Years 'The Endless River' is due out this fall... 

  • The majority of Americans have no money in the stock market at all, including retirement accounts. Some 53% of Americans avoid the market completely, according to a Pew Research survey last year. 

  •  (BW) Pine beetles, each the size of a grain of rice, are obliterating forests, ravaging towns, draining city budgets, and threatening tourism at ski resorts, golf courses, and national parks. The beetles’ economic impact is emerging two decades into a growing infestation fueled by climate change and drought that has wiped out 38,000 square miles of trees—an area the size of Indiana and Rhode Island combined……Recent winters haven’t been cold enough to kill off the beetles. 
  • The average U.S. temperature has increased by as much as 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit since 1895, with most of the warmest winters occurring since 1970. 

  • The largest elephant in the world, Satao, has been killed in Kenya. Poachers shot the bull elephant with a poisoned arrow in Tsavo East National Park, waited for him to die a painful death, and hacked off his face to remove his ivory. (forbes.com) 

  • (NYT)..On June 20, officials from the European Southern Observatory blew the top off a mountain in northern Chile called Armazones, breaking ground for what is planned to be the largest, most powerful optical telescope ever built. Known as the European Extremely Large Telescope, or E-ELT, it will have a segmented mirror 39 meters (about 128 feet) in diameter, powerful enough to see planets around distant stars. By comparison, the largest telescopes now operating are 10 meters in diameter... The Energy Department is kicking in $165 million for a 3,200-megapixel camera, which will produce an image of the entire sky every few days and over 10 years will produce a movie…  

  •  More than 50 former Israeli soldiers have refused to serve in the nation’s reserve force, citing regret over their part in a military they said plays a central role in oppressing Palestinians (haaretz.com) 

  •  The pacific island country of Palau is becoming the first nation to ban commercial fishing and bottom trawling in their waters in order to regenerate fish stocks.