Friday, June 18, 2010


ECB must buy 'hundred of billions' of bonds to tame Europe's debt crisis
"If the euro falls to parity or down to 80 cents against the dollar, we would start to see a solution," he said.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims rose 12,000 last week to 472,000, more than expected.

  • U.S. consumer price index fell 0.2% MoM and rose 2.0% YoY

  • The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from 21.4 to 8.0

  • Construction output in the EU was unchanged MoM and rose 4.3% YoY

  • U.K.'s retail sales volume rose 0.6% in May and 2.2% YoY

  • The Swiss agree to hand thousands of private bank details to the US

Wednesday, June 16, 2010


Italian economists slam austerity measures
"Some countries will be pushed out of the eurozone, others will break away to free themselves from a deflationary spiral."

Quick Overview

  • Spain’s central bank plans to publish the results of “stress tests” on the country’s financial institutions.

  • US industrial production rose 1.2% in May.

  • U.S. housing starts were at an annual rate of 593,000 in May, down 10.0% MoM and up 7.8% YoY

  • US utilization rose from 73.7% to 74.7% of capacity.

  • US mortgage applications rose 18% last week,

  • U.K.'s unemployment rate out at 7.9%, down from 8.0% last month.

  • YoY Consumer prices in the EUrose 2.0% in May

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil supplies rose 1.7 million barrels to 363.1 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 600,000 barrels
    Supplies of distillates rose 1.8 million barrels.
    Gasoline demand fell 0.7%
    Distillate demand rose 12.5%

  • FedEx expects U.S. GDP growth of 3.2% during its fiscal 2011, compared to just 1% in the prior period.

  • BP swaps Rise to 36% odds of default and cancels dividend

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Quick Overview

  • The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 19.1 to 19.57

  • The National Association of Home Builders' sentiment index fell from 22 to 17

  • YoY U.K. consumer prices rose 3.4% in May

  • Japan kept the interest rate unchanged at 1.0%

  • The world’s top oil companies are just as unprepared as BP to handle a major oil spill, Democratic lawmakers charged, following a review of the companies’ emergency response plans.

Monday, June 14, 2010

Quick Overview

  • EU industrial production rose 0.5% MoM and up 7.8% YoY

  • (Bloomberg) -- Greece’s credit rating was cut four steps to non-investment grade, or junk, by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited the country’s economic “risks.” The rating was lowered to Ba1 from A3.

  • Wet weather could slash oat production in Western Canada, the second-biggest oat-growing region in the world, by more than 700,000 tonnes. That kind of drop represents 22% of the Canadian Agriculture Department's May 5 production estimate of 3.2 million tonnes.

Friday, June 11, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. retail sales fell 1.2% in May and rose 6.9% YoY

  • The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment rose from 73.6 to 75.5 in June

  • YoY India’s Industrial production rose 17.6% in April

  • U.K.’s index of manufacturing fell 0.4% in April and rose 3.4% YoY.
  • U.K. Producer price index rose 0.3% in May and rose 5.7% YoY

  • YoY China's industrial output rose 16.5% in May
  • YoY China’s consumer prices rose 3.1% in May

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims fell 3,000 to 456,000

  • The U.S. trade deficit rose to the highest level in more than a year, according to Commerce Department. Exports fell $1.0 billion to $148.8 billion in April while imports fell $0.8 billion to $189.1 billion.

  • Australia's unemployment rate improved from 5.4% to 5.2%

  • Japan's GDP rose 1.2% in Q1 and 4.2% YoY

  • Canada’s exports fell 1.0% while imports fell 2.2%

  • England kept the interest rate unchanged.

  • The ECB kept its interest rate unchanged

  • YoY China's exports rose 48.5% in May -- boosting hopes that global demand is recovering

  • The USDA's 2010-2011 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
    Corn was lowered from 1.818 to 1.573 billion bushels.
    Soybeans were lowered from 365 to 360 million bushels.
    Wheat was reduced from 997 to 991 million bushels.
    Sugar was lowered from 844,000 to 764,000 short tons.
    Cotton was lowered from 3.0 to 2.8 million bales.

  • The USDA's 2010-2011 world ending stocks estimate for:
    Corn was lowered from 154 to 147 million tons.
    Soybeans were raised from 66 to 67 million tons.
    Wheat was lowered from 198 to 194 million tons.
    Cotton was lowered slightly from 50.1 to 49.6 million bales.
  • They expect beef production to be down 2% in 2010 and again, in 2011.
  • They expect pork production to be down 4% in 2010, but up 3% in 2011.
  • The USDA raised the 2009-2010 Florida orange crops from 132 to 134 million boxes -- Juice yield unchanged.

  • Container traffic at major ports in India for the April-May period increased by 21 % YoY.

  • The International Coffee Organization estimates world coffee production in 2010-2011 at 134 million bags and consumption at 134 million bags.

  • SEC Approves Halts for S&P 500 Stocks That Move 10%

  • (Bloomberg) -- The proportion of U.S. homeowners turning delinquent on mortgages backing the securities that roiled the global financial system has tumbled in the past three months, even after accounting for a typical seasonal improvement, according to RBS Securities Inc.

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.7% in April

  • U.S. inventories rose 0.4%.

  • US mortgage applications fell 5.7% -- the lowest level in three years.

  • Japan's machinery orders rose 4% in April

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 1.8 million barrels to 361.4 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline were unchanged
    Gasoline demand fell 1.0%
    Distillate demand rose 12.1%
    Refinery use was at 89.1% of capacity

  • The manufacturer of BP’s dispersant says that it can’t reveal the dispersants composition, because it is a trade secret —NO KIDDING

Tuesday, June 08, 2010

Quick Overview

  • Brazil's economy grew 9% in the first three months of 2010 - its fastest rate in at least 14 years.

  • (NYT) Scientists say our ability to focus is being undermined by bursts of information from e-mail and other interruptions.

  • Prime Minister David Cameron said that Britain’s financial situation is “even worse than we thought.”

  • Ben Bernanke said the US recovery was proceeding, though at a ‘moderate’ pace.

  • Switzerland's lower house rejected a bill that would have allowed the government to provide the U.S. with the names of alleged American tax dodgers.

  • 2010 US CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels seen up 2.9%

  • Norway has banned new deepwater oil drilling in the North Sea

Monday, June 07, 2010

Quick Overview

  • Hungary’s economy minister, said the ruling party made communication ‘blunders' by raising the issue of a possible default, but insists Hungary is not the next Greece

  • Coastal factories are raising salaries, local governments are hiking minimum wage standards -- the cost of doing business in China is going up, and that could drive up consumer prices in the United States and Europe.

  • OJ Producer Cutrale said Brazil's citrus crop sees its worst harvest in seven years due to bad weather and diseases.

  • As much as 32.3 billion tons of oil can be discovered in China in the future, the 21st Century Business Herald reported Monday, citing experts from the Research Institute of Economics and Technology.

  • GE said the company aims to cut by half its holdings of commercial real estate.

  • (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. panel investigating the causes of the financial crisis issued a subpoena to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. after the Wall Street firm failed to hand over documents in a “timely manner.”

  • Now some positive news about the Euro: A majority of economists polled in Europe said the euro, only 10 years old, is unlikely to survive for another five years.

  • Iran: 'Sheer lie,' central bank chief says of report that country will sell 45 billion Euros to buy gold, dollars.

  • A soldier has been arrested in connection with the WikiLeaks release of a classified video of a 2007 helicopter attack that killed a dozen people in Baghdad, including two Reuters news staff, the military said.

  • An Egyptian security official declared the blockade of Gaza a failure Monday and said his country will keep its border with the Palestinian territory open indefinitely.

Saturday, June 05, 2010

G20 drops support for fiscal stimulus In a letter to the rest of the G20, Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, argued: “Concerns about growth as Europe makes needed policy adjustments threaten to undercut the momentum of the recovery”.

Pariah Nation
By ALEXANDER COCKBURN
There’s a political price to be paid for manifest wimpery. Obama is running up a hefty bill.

Friday, June 04, 2010

Quick Overview

  • U.S. unemployment rate improved from 9.9% to 9.7% in May

  • Canada’s unemployment rate stayed at 8.1%

  • EU GDP rose 0 .2% in Q1 and up 0.5% YoY

  • Informa increased their US winter wheat production estimate to 1.481 billion bushels on Friday, compared to the USDA's May estimate of 1.458 billion.

Thursday, June 03, 2010

Quick Overview

  • Oil leaking from a BP PLC (BP) well in the Gulf of Mexico might soon find its way around Florida and along thousands of miles of Atlantic coastline, according to a computer model produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and its collaborators.

  • Google will begin handing over to European regulators the rogue data it intercepted from private WiFi internet connections.(Reuters) -

  • Three Federal Reserve officials said it may soon be time to begin raising interest rates as the economic recovery in the United States gathers momentum, despite persistently high unemployment.

  • U.S. jobless claims were down 10,000 last week to 453,000

  • The Institute of Supply Management's index of services stayed at 55.4

  • ADP Employer Services said that the private sector added 55,000 jobs in May

  • U.S factory orders rose 1.2% in April.

  • EU sales fell 1.2% MoM and down 1.6% YoY.

  • EU purchasing managers' index fell from 57.3 to 56.4.

  • Japan's capital spending fell 11.5% Q1,

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 1.9 million barrels to 363.2 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 2.6 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil fell 900,000 barrels.
    Refinery use fell from 87.8% to 87.5%
    Gasoline demand rose 0.5%
    Distillate demand rose 17.1% from a year ago.

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Quick Overview

  • The National Association of Realtors index of pending home sales rose 6% in April and up 22% YoY

  • The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage applications rose 0.9% last week.

  • Australia’s GDP rose 0.5% in Q1 and up 2.7% YoY

  • India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, may allow mills to export 967,000 metric tons of white sugar.

  • Greece announced long-delayed plans to privatize state-owned companies as part of its attempt to fix its public finances and chip away at the massive public debt.

  • (ISU) It is likely that La Niña conditions will be reached during the month of June. This would indicate a substantial increase in corn yield risk for the U.S. , shifting the likely hood of a below trend yield from about 50/50 to 70%. Most of the risk increase would be in the central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt. E. Taylor

  • According to China's Xinhua, Iran will sell euros for the U.S. dollar and gold. Iran joins a host of other emerging countries like China and India that have been ramping up their gold reserves and discarding paper currencies

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Quick Overview

  • A second larger Icelandic volcano, Katla, has shown signs of imminent eruption, again threatening the movement of aircraft in Europe and eastern North America.
    "We conclude that given the high frequency of Katla activity, an eruption in the short term is a strong possibility. It is likely to be preceded by new earthquake activity," said a paper from the University College of London Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction.

  • The Institute of Supply Management's index of manufacturing fell from 60.4 to 59.7 in May,

  • Manufacturing in China fell from 55.7 to 53.9 in May
  • Chinese ports recorded a container throughput of 11.08 million TEU in April, up 23.2 per cent YoY.

  • Unemployment rate for the EU was unchanged at 9.7% in April.
  • Manufacturing in the Euro zone fell from 57.6 to 55.8 in May

  • Canada raised rates from 0.25% to 0.50%.
  • Canada’s GDP rose 1.5% in Q1 and up 2.2% YoY

  • YoY India’s GDP rose 7.4% in Q1

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Quick Overview

  • Fitch cut its credit rating for Spain from AAA to AA+

  • U.S. personal incomes rose 0.4% in April.
  • U.S. Consumer spending was unchanged in April, weaker than expected.
  • The Chicago Purchasing Managers' index fell from 63.8 to 59.7 in May
  • The University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence rose from 72.2 to 73.6 in May

  • Japan's unemployment rate rose from 5.0% to 5.1% in April.
  • YoY Japan’s consumer prices fell 1.2% in April
  • YoY Japan’s household spending fell 0.7% in April.

  • (Bloomberg) -- The global refined sugar market will stay in deficit this year, with import demand exceeding available exports by 1 million metric tons, even as raw-sugar production expands, said Kingsman SA.
  • The global sugar market may have a surplus of 2.5 million tons in the year beginning Oct. 1, compared with a deficit of 8.5 million tons this year, the International Sugar Organization said May 14. Excess supply in 2010-2011 may be 6 million tons, Sucres et Denrees SA said April 30.

  • Silver prices are likely to hit $20 a troy ounce this year supported by “double-digit” growth in industrial consumption and strong investment demand, according to GFMS.

  • YoY U.S. Truck tonnage rose 7.5% in April -- the fifth straight year-to-year increase and the largest gain in more than five years, American Trucking Associations said Friday.

Spain is trapped in a 'perverse spiral' as wage cuts deepen the crisis This can end only in two ways. Either Germany tolerates massive monetary reflation by the ECB or Spain will be forced out of EMU, setting off a catastrophic chain-reaction through north Europe's banking system.

Sunday, May 09, 2010

Updates Resume May 30

EU Crafts $928 Billion Show of Force to Halt Crisis
(Bloomberg) -- European finance ministers put together an unprecedented loan package that may be worth 720 billion euros ($928 billion) for debt-swamped governments in a bid to restore faith in the euro and prevent Greece’s fiscal woes from unleashing a global crisis.

Saturday, May 08, 2010

EU Finance Ministers Race to Ready Euro Fund Before Asia Opens

Jolted into action by last week’s slide in the currency to the lowest in 14 months and soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, leaders of the 16 euro nations agreed to the financial backstop at a May 7 summit. They assigned finance chiefs to get it ready before Asian markets open later today European time.

“We will defend the euro, whatever it takes,”

Friday, May 07, 2010

Quick Overview

  • (Reuters) - U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew at the fastest pace in four years in April as private sector employers ramped up hiring, raising the strong possibility that the labor market recovery may be picking up steam.

  • UK general elections fail to produce a clear mandate

  • Spain’s economy crept out of recession in the first quarter of 2010 after nearly two years of decline, according to a preliminary estimate by the Bank of Spain GDP rose 0.1% in Q1.

  • China faces first drop in wheat harvest since 2003. Frost and drought have taken their toll on the world's top wheat producer, Rabobank says in a report noting better prospects for corn


Thursday, May 06, 2010


ECB paralysis rattles markets as debt costs hit new highs
"Governor Trichet came very close to saying that the current mess is not the ECB's problem," said Lars Rasmussen from Danske Banke.
.."It is no coincidence that the Greek crisis really took off when the ECB announced the end of its emergency liquidity measures in early December. Failure to tackle the crisis early and decisively has brought to the fore the risk of a sovereign default and the risk that one or more countries will leave the euro area. This is a lesson markets will not forget," he said.

Quick Overview

  • Greek lawmakers approved the government's 30 billion euro ($40 billion) austerity bill in a vote in parliament.

  • US equity prices whipsawed (BID from $30 to $100,000, ACN from $40 to $0) in value before closing sharply lower during a wild day on Wall Street that prompted leading stock exchanges to cancel some trades amid fears of trader errors and computer malfunctions.

  • (Reuters) - Nasdaq Operations said it will cancel all trades executed between 2:40 p.m. to 3 p.m. showing a rise or fall of more than 60 percent from the last trade in that security at 2:40 p.m or immediately prior.

  • U.S. non-farm productivity rose at an annual rate of 3.6% in Q1 and up 6.3% YoY

  • July lumber ended down its $10 daily limit at $285.50, hurt by today's commodities sell off.

  • Brazil's estimates the upcoming coffee crop at 47 million bags

  • Citrus Processors Report said there were 126.96 million gallons of frozen concentrated orange juice in inventory on April 24th

  • Services in the U.K. fell from 56.5 to 55.3 in April

  • International Cotton Advisory Committee said global cotton production in the coming season will leap 13% in reaction to surging prices.

Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Quick Overview

  • The Institute of Supply Management's index of services stayed at 55.4 in April

  • US mortgage applications rose 13% last week as buyers rushed to secure federal tax credits.

  • EU retail unchanged in March and up 0.3% YoY.

  • EU manufacturing and services increased from 55.9 to 57.3 in April

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil rose 2.8 million barrels last week to 360.6 million barrels
    Supplies of gasoline rose 1.2 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil were unchanged.
    Refinery use rose from 89.0% to 89.6%.
    Gasoline demand rose 3.5% YoY
    Distillate demand rose 5.1% YoY

  • (Bloomberg) Some analysts interviewed expect a shortage of corn and cotton to occur sometime this year in China.

Euro plunges as Club Med debt fears spread Stephen Jen from BlueGold Capital, said the Greek rescue "kicks the can down the road" for three or six months but will not prevent a default in Greece and "probably Portugal". "Greece's bonds are 'Zombie Bonds' and can only be artificially and temporarily propped up," he said. Italy and Spain are safe only if they "use their time well".

Quick Overview

  • U.S. factory orders rose 1.3% in March

  • Manufacturing in China fell from 57.0 to 55.4 in April

  • Australia increased its interest rate from 4.25% to 4.50%

Monday, May 03, 2010

Quick Overview

  • The EU and IMF finally put together a Greek bailout of 110 billion Euros.

  • Manufacturing for the Euro area rose from 56.6 to 57.6 in April

  • Manufacturing in Australia rose from 50.5 to 59.8 in April

  • U.S. personal incomes rose 0.3% in March

  • U.S. consumer spending rose 0.6%.

  • U.S. manufacturing (ISM) rose from 59.6 to 60.4

  • U.S. construction spending rose 0.2% MoM, but fell 12.3% YoY

  • China will raise reserve requirement 0.50% to 17%.

  • Australian mining shares fell after the government slapped a 40% tax on profits.

Saturday, May 01, 2010



Buffett Says Derivatives Law May Spare Berkshire on Collateral
“If for any reason the Treasury should go back and, in a more sweeping declaration, decide all past contracts be collateralized we would comply, naturally,” Buffett said. “And it will be no problem.”

(Warren, max leverage of about 16 to 1 at the CME would be just about right for you as well. Why don’t you lead by example?)