There's no quick fix to the global economy's excess capacity
As a matter of strict fact, two- thirds of the global economy is already in “deflation-lite”. US prices fell 2.1pc in July year-on-year, the steepest drop since 1950. Import prices are down 7.3pc, even after stripping out energy. At almost every stage over the last year, in almost every country (except Britain), deflationary forces have proved stronger than expected.

Elsewhere, the CPI figures are: Ireland (-5.9), Thailand (-4.4), Taiwan (-2.3), Japan (-1.8), China (-1.8), Belgium (-1.7), Spain (-1.4), Malaysia (-1.4), Switzerland (-1.2), France (-0.7), Germany (-0.6), Canada (-0.3).

Quick Overview

• U.S. housing starts fell -1.0% MoM and -46% YoY. But single-family building permits rose 5.8%.
  

• U.S. producer prices fell -0.9% in July and -6.8% YoY
  

• U.K. consumer prices rose 1.8% in July.
  

• Japan's July Nationwide Dept. Store Sales fell -11.7% vs. -8.8% prior
  

• (ToI) With the glaciers on the Qinghai- Tibet Plateau receding at an alarming rate, North India could face the prospect of drought and water levels in major rivers like the Indus originating from Tibet could be hit in the long-run, a leading Chinese meteorologist has warned.

• Standard Chartered said a severe drought in Chinas northern grain-producing regions of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Jilin, Shanxi and Liaoning is potentially Bullish. These five areas account for about 30% of China's autumn grain output, mainly in corn, but also wheat and soy. The autumn crop is around 70% of China's total grain production

• India's summer-sown rice output may fall by 10 millionmetric tons due to deficient monsoon rains, the federal farm minister saidWednesday.

Pension Funds Pare Stocks, Ignoring Economic Rebound (Update2)
Equities appreciated an average 12.91 percent a year from 1900 to 1999, while bonds returned 4.69 percent annually, according to the data from the London Business School and Credit Suisse. Since the start of the new century, bonds gained 6.36 percent, compared with a loss of 2.27 percent for shares.

Quick Overview

• Japan's GDP expanded 3.7% YoY
  

• Hong Kong’s GDP rose 3.3 %
  

• U.S. August Empire Manufacturing rose to 12.08 from -0.55 in July (3.00 expected)
  

• Euro Zone’s June Trade Balance out at 1.0B (1.3B expected) and 1.1B in May
  

• Switzerland’s June Retail Sales rose 0.9% YoY
  

• U.K. August House Prices fell -2.2% MoM.
  

Updates resume late Sunday the 16th

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in July.
  

• U.S. home foreclosures rose 7% MoM and 32% YoY
  

• U.S. jobless claims rose 4,000 to 558,000.
  
  

• France and Germany’s GDP grew by 0.3% in Q2.

RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets
When the finest minds in the business disagree so starkly, the rest of us can only shake our heads in confusion.

Quick Overview

• USDA Report

• The Fed kept funds rate unchanged at 0.125%

• U.S. Exports rose $2.4 billion in June while imports rose $3.5 billion. Resulting in a trade deficit of $27.0 billion.
  

• U.K.'s unemployment out at 7.8% up from 7.1%
  

• Industrial production in the EU fell 0.2% MoM and 15.6% YoY.

• The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index jumped to 58.12 this month from 39.13 in July.

• Cocoa exports from Nigeria, the world’s fourth-biggest producer of the commodity, fell 22% in June, the Lagos-based Federal Produce Inspection Service said.

• Arrivals of cocoa beans from the Ivory Coast for the first 45 weeks of the 2008-09 season, are down by 14% YoY

• MoM U.S. cocoa bean imports rose 56.3% in June, and 330.8% YoY, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

• The USDA's 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
• Corn was raised from 1.550 to 1.621 billion bushels.
• Soybeans lowered from 250 to 210 million bushels.
• Wheat was raised from 706 to 743 million bushels.
• Sugar was reaised from 359,000 to 709,000 tons.
• Cotton unchanged at 5.60 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2009-2010 world ending stocks estimate for:
• Corn was raised from 139 to 141 million tons.
• Soybeans lowered from 52 to 50 million tons.
• Wheat was raised from 181 to 184 million tons.
• Cotton was lowered from 58 to 57 million bales.

• China buys another 4.2 mln bu of new-crop beans this AM

• The median price of an existing U.S. single-family home fell to $174,100, the National Association of Realtors said today. Total sales rose 3.8% QoQ and fell 2.9% YoY.

Quick Overview

• YoY U.S. non-farm productivity rose 1.8% in Q2, more than expected.
  

• U.S. business sales rose 0.4% in June
  

• U.S. inventories fell 1.7%.
  
  

• YoY Russia’s GDP fell 10.9% in Q2.
  

• UK July Retail Sales rose 3.6% YoY
  

• UK same store sales rose 1.8%

• Australia’s July Business Confidence rose to 10 from 4 in June
  

• China July Producer Price Index fell 8.2% YoY
  

• China's July Consumer Price Index fell 1.8% YoY
  

• China's July Exports fell 23.0% YoY
  

• China's July Imports fell -14.9% YoY
  

• Japan's July Consumer Confidence rose to 39.7 from 38.1 in June.
  

• Germany’s July Wholesale Price Index fell -10.6% YoY
  

• China's domestic soybean output growth can't match the rate of rising demand, so imports will continue to rise, a government official said Tuesday. China's soybean imports this year will likely total around 40 million metric tons, compared with 37.44 million tons last year, according to General Administration of Customs data. In the January-July period, China imported 26.48 million tons of soybeans, up 28% YoY

• More than 62% of ships on order today are bigger than 4,000 TEU, and only 11% are under that size at a time when smaller ships will be the first to benefit from recovery, according to Paris-based Alphaliner.
  

Quick Overview

• Japan's machinery orders rose 9.7% in June
  

• New Zealand July House Prices fell -5.0% YoY
  

• Norway’s July CPI fell -0.6% MoM
  

• GM and eBay will launch a pilot program Tuesday that will allow consumers to place online bids for new vehicles from GM dealers in California
  

• (Bloomberg) -- White sugar rose to a record in London as India, the world’s biggest consumer and second-largest producer, cut its forecast for monsoon rain, potentially worsening a global supply shortfall.

• Sugar supplies may not be enough to meet demand, and stocks at the end of the current crop year are seen at around 20 million tonnes, well below other analysts' estimates of 30-70 million tonnes, Czarnikow said.
  

• Egypt lifts import duty on raw and refined sugar from Aug. 15 until end of year to reduce consumer prices.

• Indonesia has set a ceiling price for white sugar sold by local cane millers at 6,500 rupiah (66 U.S. cents) a kg to prevent soaring local prices, the trade minister said on Friday.

• (SSY News) Latest information from China’s iron ore ports indicate that a total of 47 Capesize vessels are waiting to berth compared with a peak of 88 in mid-June.

Jim Rogers Says U.S. Commodity Curbs to Drive Markets Overseas
“It is remarkable because America is shooting itself in the foot again,” he said in an interview in Singapore today. “It’s going to drive the business away and the rest of the world is going to welcome it with open arms.”

Quick Overview

• (WSJ)Patchy rains for the second straight week dashed hopes of a late monsoon revival in India, and will seriously impact the output of summer-sown rice, sugar cane and pulses, industry officials said. The weather office reported that monsoon rains for the past week were 64 % below average.
  

• (Bloomberg) -- A coalition of food companies including General Mills Inc., Kraft Foods Inc. and ConAgra Foods Inc. asked the U.S. government to increase sugar-import quotas after inventories fell to a 34-year low and prices surged.
  
  

• (WSJ)Frank DiPascali, who helped run Madoff's investment-advisory operation, is expected to plead guilty to fraud charges on Tuesday and could become a central witness against other individuals in the case.

• In a recently released Harris Poll survey, 21% of American adults believe the sun revolves around the earth.

U.S. Household Deleveraging and Future Consumption Growth
Since the start of the U.S. recession in December 2007, household leverage has declined. It currently stands at about 130% of disposable income. How much further will the deleveraging process go?

Quick Overview

• U.S. unemployment rate fell from 9.5% to 9.4% in July
  

• The European Central Bank and 18 other banks agreed to limit their sales of gold to no more than 400 tons per year until 2014.
  

• Canada’s July Unemployment Rate steady at 8.6% (8.8% expected)
  

• Australia’s Julys Construction Index out at 39.5 (42.6 expected)
  

• Switzerland’s July Unemployment Rate out at 3.9% up from 3.8% in June
  

• Germany’s June Trade Balance out at 12.2B (10.6B expected) and 9.5B in May
  

• UK July PPI Input/output out at -1.4%/+0.3% MoM (0.8%/0.0% expected)
  

• Germany’s June Industrial Production out at -0.1% MoM ( +0.5% expected)

Spike Coming in Commodities Prices: Goldman Sachs
As the developed world increasingly begins to consume like Westerners the demands placed on the finite resources of the planet increases. This trend of human populations growing faster than the earth's ability to produce not only impacts food production but that of commodity usage."

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims fell 38,000 last week to 550,000 -- less than expected.
  

• New Zealand Q2 Unemployment Rate rose to 6.0% vs. 5.7% expected and 5.0% in Q1
  

• Australia's unemployment rate unchanged at 5.8% in July
  

• Germany June Factory Orders rose 4.5% MoM (0.6% expected) but fell 25.3% YoY
  

• Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 0.50% as expected, and said they would increase the level of quantitative easing (printing) from 125 to 175 billion pounds.
  

• ECB kept rates unchanged at 1.00% as expected
  

• Canada’s June Building Permits rose 1.0% (3.0% expected)
  

• Conab estimates Brazil's 2008-09 soy crop at 57.1 million metric tons, 4.8% below the
  2007-08 harvest of 60 million tons -- unchanged from last month's forecast.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Institute of Supply Management's index of services dropped from 47.0 to 46.4 in July
  

• U.S. factory orders rose 0.4% in June.
  

• The U.S. Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications rose 7.2% last week
  

• Germany’s July PMI Services out at 48.1 (48.4 estimate)
  

• EuroZone’s July PMI Services out at 45.7 (45.6 estimate)

• Retail sales in the EU rose 0.1% MoM, but fell 1.7% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s manufacturing output rose 0.4% MoM
  

• Australia's exports rose 2% MoM
  

• The U.S. DOE said:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 1.7 million barrels to 349.5 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 200,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil fell 300,000 barrels.
  Refinery fell from 84.6% to 84.5%.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.5% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 7.9% YoY.
  
  
  

• (Bloomberg) Sugar imports by India, the world’s largest consumer, may more than triple in the year starting October as dry weather in key growing areas threatens to lower output, the nation’s fourth-biggest producer said. Purchases may surge to 8 million metric tons, up from an estimated 2.5 million tons this year.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. pending home sales rose 3.6% in June
  

• U.S. personal incomes fell 1.3% in June
  

• U.S. consumer spending rose 0.4% in June
  

• U.K. construction activity rose from 44.5 to 47.0 in June
  

• EU industrial producer prices rose 0.2% MoM but fell down 6.7% YoY.
  

• German retail sales fell 1.8% in June
  

• Australia's retail sales fell 1.4% in June
  

Quick Overview

• Of the two-thirds of S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 earnings 74% of them have exceeded expectations.
  

• U.S. manufacturing index rose from 44.8 to 48.9 in July
  

• U.S. construction spending rose 0.3% MoM but fell 11.4% YoY
  

• Manufacturing in China rose 51.8 to 52.8 in July,
  

• U.K. manufacturing rose from 47.4 to 50.8 in July,
  

• E.U. manufacturing rose from 42.6 to 46.3 in July
  

• Germany’s June Retail Sales fell -1.8% MoM (0.5% expected)
  
  

• (FT) White sugar prices hit their highest level in at least a quarter of century, moving above the $500 a tonne on Monday, boosted by the expectation that India will need to import sugar for the second year in a row.
  

• Ford said July U.S. vehicle sales rose 2.3% YoY
  

Alcoa Razes Rain Forest in Court Case Led by Brazil Prosecutors
The fires men set to clear land for ranches and farms create 6 percent of the carbon dioxide spewed into the air worldwide, according to the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned Scientists. That equates to half of all the emissions from cars, trucks, planes, trains and ships in the world.

‘Amazon is the Key’

Brazil has become the planet’s fourth-biggest polluter.