Sunday, August 17, 2008


Dollar surge will not stop America feeling the effects of a global crunch US exports have risen 22pc over the past year, outstripping Chinese growth. The US non-oil trade deficit has shrunk by two fifths since 2002. It is now running at $300bn a year. This is 2.1pc of GDP.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Quick Overview

  • U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in July, better than expected

  • The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from -4.92 to +2.77, better than expected.

  • The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment rose from 61.2 to 61.7

  • Canada’s manufacturing sales rose 2.1%.

  • YoY China's vehicle sales rose 6.8% in July


Blowback From Bear-Baiting by Patrick J. Buchanan
Is not Western hypocrisy astonishing?

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Quick Overview

  • The National Association of Realtors said YoY the prices of single family homes fell 7.6% in the second quarter.

  • GDP in the Euro area fell 0.2% in the second quarter.
    YoY Consumer prices in the Euro area rose 4.0% in July.

  • YoY China's industrial production rose 14.7% in July

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Quick Overview

  • U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in July, but rose 2.6% YoY.

  • U.S. business sales rose 1.7% in June

  • U.S. inventories rose 0.7%.

  • Japan's GDP fell 0.6% in the second quarter.

  • U.K.'s unemployment rate rose to 5.4%, up from 5.2% last month.

  • YoY China’s retail sales rose 23.3% in July.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said:
    Supplies of crude oil fell 400,00 barrels to 296.5 million barrels.
    Supplies of gasoline fell 6.4 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 1.0 million barrels.
    Refinery use fell from 87.0% to 85.9% of capacity last week.
    Gasoline demand fell 1.9% YoY
    Distillate demand rose 4.3%.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Exports rose $6.4 billion to $164.4 billion in June - imports rose $4.0 billion to $221.2 billion. The result was $56.8 billion of net imports - narrowing the trade deficit unexpectedly.

  • The Philadelphia Federal Reserve expects GDP to be up an annual rate of 1.2% in the third quarter, less than previously thought.

  • Canada’s exports rose 3.1% in June - imports rose 2.0%.

  • U.K.'s consumer prices rose 4.4% YoY .

  • Japan's wholesale prices rose 7.1% YoY.

  • The USDA's 2008-2009 U.S. ending stocks guess for:
    Corn was raised from 833 to 1,133 million bushels, more than expected. (Take notice when a bearish report fails to produce its expected results)
    Soybeans were reduced from 140 to 135 million bushels.
    Wheat was increased from 537 to 574 million bushels.
    Sugar was increased from 607,000 to 767,000 short tons.
    Cotton was reduced from 5.30 to 4.60 million bales.

  • The USDA's 2008-2009 world ending stocks guess for:
    Corn was raised from 105 to 112 million tons.
    Soybeans were increased slightly from 48.9 to 49.3 million tons.
    Wheat was increased from 133 to 136 million tons.
    Cotton was reduced from 53 to 51 million bales.

  • The USDA increased its beef production guess for 2008 from 26.6 to 26.7 billion pounds.

  • The USDA increased the pork production guess for 2008 from 23.5 to 23.6 billion pounds.
The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power By George Friedman

..Moscow did not have to concern itself with the potential response of the United States or Europe; hence, the invasion did not shift the balance of power. The balance of power had already shifted, and it was up to the Russians when to make this public. They did that Aug. 8.

Monday, August 11, 2008


Georgia: Vladimir Putin sends emphatic message of global importance
Mr Putin has demonstrated that the Kremlin will use force to protect the 25 million Russians who inhabit the Soviet Union's successor states, well beyond the mother country's borders.

Quick Overview

  • YoY the U.K.'s producer prices rose 10.2% in July

  • The USDA said:
    67% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent, up from 66% last week.
    63% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, the same as last week.
    53% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, down from 56% last week.
    45% of the cotton crop was rated good to excellent, down from 47% last week.

Sunday, August 10, 2008


US dollar rallies as extent of worldwide recession becomes clearer
Arguably, the US is now super-competitive. Airbus and Volkswagen are shifting production plant across the Atlantic. US furniture and textile companies have stopped outsourcing to China, and are coming home.

The International Monetary Fund says the dollar has fallen 25pc to 30pc on a global basis, just as it did in the late 1980s. There was no shortage of dollar doomsters at that time, warning that America was finished - left behind by Japan and Germany. Events played out otherwise. America was on the cusp of a recovery.

Friday, August 08, 2008

Quick Overview

  • U.S. worker productivity rose 2.2% in the second quarter.
  • U.S. wholesale sales rose 2.8%
  • U.S. Inventories rose 1.1%.

  • Canada’s unemployment rate improved from 6.2% to 6.1%

  • GDP in Italy fell 0.3%.

  • Chile's state-run copper company said output fell 11.6 percent in the first half of the year amid heavy rains and labor strikes.

  • The U.S. dollar had its highest close in five months.

Thursday, August 07, 2008

Governments caused the credit crisis, but capitalism gets the blame
Greenspan now says the world faces a "once or twice in a century event". Faith in the financial system has been called into question. Taxpayers will have to rescue more banks. Missing is any hint of apology for his role in incubating this crisis as monetary overlord for 20 years.
Rice on possible IDF Iran strike: U.S. has no veto over Israeli military ops
"We don't say yes or no to Israeli military operations. Israel is a sovereign country," Rice said in an interview with Yahoo! News.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. pending home sales rose 5.3% in June, better than expected. YoY pending home sales are down 12.3%.

  • U.S. jobless claims rose 7,000 last week to 455,000, more than expected

  • The Bank of England kept its interest rate unchanged at 5.0%.

  • The European Central Bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.25%

  • Japan’s machinery orders fell 2.6% in June.

  • YoY South Africa gold production fell 12.3% in June.

  • The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency denied the request from Texas to reduce the Renewable Fuels Standard this year, saying that they found no evidence that the mandate was causing "severe harm" to the economy.
U.S. June Consumer Credit Up $14.3 Billion, More Than Forecast
Consumers are using credit cards and loans to cover expenses as falling home values cause banks to restrict access to home- equity lines.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008


Hank the Great? Paulson Copies Frederick With Covered-Bond Plan
(Bloomberg) -- In 1769, short of funds to rebuild Prussia after attacks by Russia, Sweden and Austria, Frederick the Great let aristocrats, churches and monasteries raise money by pledging their estates as security to investors.

Quick Overview

  • Consumer confidence in the U.K. fell from 62 to 51 in July.

  • German factory orders fell 6.1% in June.

  • The U.S. DOE said:
  • Supplies of crude oil rose 1.7 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels
    Supplies of gasoline fell 4.4 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil rose 1.1 million barrels.
    Refinery use fell from 87.2% to 87.0% of capacity last week.
    Gasoline demand fell 2.3% YoY
    Distillate demand rose 3.5% YoY.

  • The port of Dalian, which is the largest in northeast China, saw its container throughput rise 23.8% YoY.

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Quick Overview

  • The Fed met and kept rates unchanged at 2.0%, as expected.

  • The Institute of Supply Management's index of services increased from 48.2 to 49.5

  • U.K.'s manufacturing output fell 0.5% in June.
    U.K.’s index of services rose from 47.1 to 47.4

  • Retail sales volume in the Euro area fell 0.6% in June.

  • Australia kept rates unchanged at 7.25%, as expected.

  • (JoC) A national container fee may be the most equitable means available to raise the billions of dollars needed to build freight infrastructure, a congressional hearing is told.

  • Between January and May, China exported 3.39 billion pairs of shoes, down 3.6% YoY.

Monday, August 04, 2008

Quick Overview

  • YoY U.S. Consumer prices rose 4.1% in June, up from 3.5% in May, for the biggest annual gain since May 1991.

  • U.S. personal incomes rose 0.1% in June. Adjusting for inflation, spending fell 0.2%.

  • U.S. factory orders rose 1.7% in June, more than expected.

  • The USDA said:
    66% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent.
    63% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent, up from 62% last week.
    56% of the spring wheat crop is rated good to excellent, down from 60% last week.
    86% of the winter wheat crop is harvested.
    47% of the cotton crop is rated good to excellent.


Deutsche calls the top of the commodity cycle
Deutsche Bank has called the top of the commodity cycle. The uber-bulls of the oil, food and metals boom have advised clients to take profits before the downturn engulfing most of the global economy works its inevitable effects.