Quick Overview

• Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday that a weaker dollar would have some inflationary impact but that expectations for slower growth may stem price rises.
  

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing rose from 14.7 to 28.8 in October.
  

• Canada's index of leading indicators rose 0.4% in September.
  

• The World Trade Organization ruled the U.S. provides illegal subsidies to cotton growers, giving Brazil the right to impose sanctions on up to $4 billion worth of U.S. goods.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Producer prices rose 1.1% in September and 4.4% YoY.
  

• U.S. Retail sales rose 0.6% in September. Without transport sales rose 0.4%
  

• Industrial production in the Euro area rose 1.2% and 4.3% YoY.
  

• Industrial production in India rose 10.7% YoY.
  

• The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn increased from 1.675 to 1.997 billion bushels.
  Soybeans are unchanged at 215 million bushels.
  Wheat was lowered from 362 to 307 million bushels.
  Sugar increased from 1.802 to 1.899 million tons.
  Cotton increased from 6.2 to 6.4 million bales.
  

• The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate of:
  Corn increased from 105 to 110 million tons.
  Soybeans increased from 50 to 51 million tons.
  Wheat was reduced from 112 to 107 million tons.
  Cotton increased from 52 to 55 million bales.
  

• The USDA estimates the 2007-2008 Florida orange crop at 168 million boxes, up from 129 million boxes YoY. Juice yield is predicted at 1.60 gallons a box, down from 1.65 gallons per box YoY.
  

• The income gap between the wealthiest and poorest Americans grew to its widest level since the 1920s
  

• China's foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, rose to $1.434 trillion in Q3.
  
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services shrank 2.4%.
  

• Australia's unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%.
  

• The International Coffee Organization kept its guess of 2007-2008 world production and consumption unchanged at 114 and 122 million bags.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil supplies fell 1.7 million barrels to 320.1 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.0 million barrels
  Gasoline demand fell o.4% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 1.3% YoY
  Underground supplies of natural gas rose 73 billion cubic to 3.336 trillion cubic feet.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• Consumer confidence in Australia fell 0.3%.
  
  

• The Baltic Dry Index passed 10,000 for the first time since its inception in 1985.
  

• Crude oil rose on speculation that Turkish forces may attack Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq
  

Global warming hits Cereal production hard
According to the first study on the impact of climate change on global food production from 1981 to 2002, fields of wheat, corn and barley throughout the world have produced a combined 40 million tonne less a year because of the increase in temperatures caused by human activities.

....”Most people tend to think of climate change as something that will impact the future, but this study shows that warming over the past two decades has already had real effects on the global food supply,” said Christopher Field, co-author of the study and director of Carnegie Institution's department of
global ecology.

Quick Overview

• The Dow and S&P 500 closed at records after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed inflation expectations were contained, leaving open the question of whether another rate cut is near.
  
  

• Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President William Poole said the deprecation of the dollar should not hit inflation, owing to the limited pass-through from the currency via import prices.
  
  
  
  

• India has extended its export ban of wheat for an indefinite period, while allowing the restriction-free import of wheat indefinitely .
  
  

• Heating oil customers will pay an average of 22 percent more this winter than last and natural gas customers will pay 10 percent more, the Energy Department estimated.
  
  

Study: GM corn might affect ecosystems
Assistant Professor Todd Royer said the study suggested pollen and other plant parts containing toxins from genetically engineered Bt corn are washing into streams near cornfields.
The researchers determined consumption of Bt corn byproducts produced increased mortality and reduced growth in caddisflies -- aquatic insects that are related to the pests targeted by the toxin in Bt corn.
Royer noted caddisflies are a food resource for higher organisms, such as fish and amphibians.
"If our goal is to have healthy, functioning ecosystems, we need to protect all the parts," said Royer. "Water resources are something we depend on greatly."

Quick Overview

• U.K.’s Producer prices rose 2.7% YoY.
  

• Factory orders in Germany rose 1.2%
  

EPA Asked to Regulate Ship Emissions
Marine vessels are responsible for nearly 3 percent of the world's greenhouse gases — equal to the amount generated by all cars in the U.S. — and ship emissions are projected to grow by more than 70 percent by 2020 as global trade expands, according to the petitions.

"If the U.S. is to do its part in reducing the threat of global climate disruption, then EPA must limit the global warming emissions from ships that enter the ports of the United States," Brown said.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims rose 16,000 last week to 317,000, more than expected.
  

• U.S. factory orders fell 3.3% in August.
  

• The Bank of England and the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged.
  

• Brazil predicted that the soybean crop will total 59.7 million tons in 2007-2008, up slightly from this year's harvest. They also predicted a 52.3 million ton corn crop, up from 51.0 million tons this year.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 57 billion cubic feet to 3.263 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are down 2% YoY.
  

• Canada estimated its wheat crop at 20.64 million tonnes, up slightly from the July guess of 20.3 million tonnes. This compares to 25.27 million tonnes last year.
  
  

• So far this year, Asian soybean rust has been found in 162 U.S. counties. More than likely not causing much damage to this year's crop.

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management said its index of services dropped from 55.8 to 54.8, about as expected.
  

• Democratic leaders in the U.S. Congress called for the appointment of a "mortgage czar" to help stem a jump in foreclosures.
  

• Australia's retail sales rose 0.7% in August.
  

• Retail sales volume in the Euro area rose 0.1% in August, and 1.0% YoY.
  

• Nine environmental groups called for annual investments of 1 billion reals to bring destruction of the Amazon rain forest to a halt by 2015.
  

• AWB Ltd. estimates the Australian wheat crop at 13 million tons.
  

• The U.S. Grain Council estimates China's corn crop at 139 million tons ( 5.5 billion bushels), down 6 million tons from last year.
  

• Brazils coffee crop needs rain, but the forecast is sunny and dry for the next ten days.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 1.2 million barrels to 321.8 million barrels.
  Supplies of Gasoline were down 100,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil down 200,000 barrels.
  Refinery use rose from 86.9% to 87.5% of capacity last week.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.1% YoY
  Distillate demand fell 0.4% YoY
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• The National Association of Realtors said that its pending homes sales index was down 6.5%
  

• The unemployment rate in the Euro area was 6.9% in August.
  YoY producer prices in the Euro area were up 1.7%.
  

In Wiki-Politics, Ron Paul and Mike Gravel Lead the Field
At this time during the run up to the last presidential election, Wikipedia was in its infancy. In July of 2003, the online encyclopedia attracted less than half a million US visitors. Fast forward four years. In July of 2007 over 41 million people, or 1 in 4 people online in the US, visited the site. Wikipedia is now the 12th most visited website and is likely to play a significant role in informing and influencing those who will choose our next president.

Quick Overview

• The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. manufacturing index dropped from 52.9 to 52.0 in September.
  
  

• Japan's Tankan index was unchanged at +23 in September, better than expected
  

• Manufacturing in Europe fell from 54.3 to 53.2 in August.

Commodities Head for Biggest Monthly Increase in 32 Years (Bloomberg)
The 19-commodity Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index was up 8.7 percent this month, the most since July 1975. Wheat climbed to a record in September amid a global grain shortfall, boosting corn and soybeans. Oil also hit a record, and gold reached a 27-year high. The Federal Reserve cut borrowing costs to bolster the U.S. economy, sending the dollar tumbling.

Quick Overview

• The PCE deflator, a core measure of consumer prices, rose 1.8%.
  

• U.S. Personal incomes rose 0.3% in August and consumer spending rose 0.6%, more than expected.
  

• The U.S. Census Bureau said construction spending was up 0.2% from July's pace. YoY construction spending is down 3.3%.
  

• The Chicago purchasing-managers' index rose from 53.8 to 54.2
  

• GDP in Canada rose 9.2% in July and 2.5% YoY.
  

• YoY Japan’s household spending rose 1.6%
  YoY Japan’s Industrial production rose 3.4%.
  Japans unemployment rate rose from 3.6% to 3.8.
  YoY consumer prices in Tokyo fell 0.2%
  

• The USDA said that, on September 1, 2007:
  Corn stocks totaled 1.30 billion bushels, down 34% YoY.
  Soybean stocks totaled 573 million bushels, up 27% YoY.
  Wheat stocks totaled 1.72 billion bushels, down 2% YoY.
  

• The USDA said that all wheat production will total 2.07 billion bushels in 2007, down 2% from the August forecast.
  

• The International Grains Council cut its global wheat production forecast from 607m tonnes to 601m tonnes and cut its estimate for Australian output to 13.5m tons.
  
  
  
  

Quick Overview

• New homes sales in the U.S. dropped 8.3 percent to an annual pace of 795,000 in August. The median price dropped 7.5 % YoY.
  

• The Commerce Department reported the economy grew at 3.8% down from 4% in the previous quarter. YoY GDP remained up 1.9%,

• The GDP's price index was up an annual rate of 2.6% in the second quarter, down from a 4.2% gain in the first quarter.
  

• Germany's unemployment rate improved to 8.8% in September.
  

• Canada posted a budget surplus of C$13.8 billion in the 2006-07
  

• To protect domestic supplies Ukraine will begin limiting wheat exports on November 1st. Ukraine is the world's seventh largest exporter of wheat.
  

• Russia plans to impose a 10% wheat export duty by the end of November.
  
  

• The EU voted yesterday to end a rule that farmers leave 10% of their land fallow, which could cause an increase of some 10 million tonnes in grain production next year.

Interesting audio on wheat

Quick Overview

• U.S. durable goods orders fell 4.9% in August, excluding transportation, orders were down 1.8%.
  

• U.K.'s GDP rose 3.1%
  

• Norway hiked key interest rates by 0.25% to 5%
  

• The U.S. DOE said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 1.8 million barrels to 320.6 million barrels
  Supplies of gasoline rose 600,000 barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 700,000 barrels.
  Refinery use fell from 89.6% to 86.9%
  Gasoline demand rose 0.4%
  Distillate demand fell 1.2%.
  

• Gold prices should top $800 per ounce by the end of the year, Barrick’s chief Greg Wilkins said. He suggested the gold market was currently overestimating world gold production.
  

• Global supplies of platinum may fall short of demand by 205,000 ounces this year, Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd said.
  

• Gold, in custody at exchange traded funds, reached 823 metric tons, greater than the holdings of the Bank of Japan.
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  9/25/07

• U.S. existing home sales were at an annual rate of 5.50 million units in August, down 4.3% from July's pace. At the current rate there is a 10-month supply -- the most in 18 years.
  

• U.S. consumer confidence fell from 105.6 to 99.8 in September, weaker than expected
  

• Consumer spending in France rose 1.0% in August
  

• German business confidence fell from 105.8 to 104.2 in September
  
  

• China will increase its state reserves for soybeans and edible vegetable oil to an appropriate level to guarantee the market supply, the State Council said Monday. Domestic food prices, pushed China's consumer-price inflation to 6.5% in August. Domestic production is projected to fall to an eight-year low.
  
  

• Coffee rose to the highest price since April 2005 on speculation that rains in Brazil this weekend may not be enough to limit damage from a prolonged dry spell.
  

• Australia's Agriculture Minister Peter McGauran said Wednesday production from the new wheat crop might be about the same level as the drought-hit crop in 2006, which produced 10 million metric tons. Australia's domestic wheat demand is about 7 million tons.
  
  

Updates resume Sep. 26