Quick Overview

• Officials from the Federal Reserve on Saturday warned of dangers from a rising tide of trade disputes and the harmful impact on what one otherwise termed a "resilient" U.S. economy
  

• U.S. Durable goods orders rose 5.9% in July, more than expected. Excluding transport orders rose 3.7%.
  

• The U.S. Census Bureau said new home sales were at an annual rate of 870,000 in July, up 2.8% from June's rate. So far in 2007, new home sales are down 21% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s GDP rose 0.8% in the second quarter and up 3.0% YoY.
  

• An index of manufacturing and services in Europe fell from 57.5 to 57.2 in August.
  

• Smithfield Foods received an order to deliver 60 million pounds of pork to China by the end of December.
  

• Pork shipments from 15 U.S. production plants have been suspended by China this month
  The Chinese say they have found traces of Ractopamine in the meat from the plants. Ractopamine is legal in the U.S. but banned in China.
  

• Dubai gold sales rose 33% in July despite high prices.
  

• The International Sugar Organization estimates 2007-2008 world sugar production at 169.6 million tons, 10.8 million tons over consumetion.
  

• Brazil's Ag Ministry estimates the current coffee crop at 32.6 million bags.
  

• The International Copper Study Group said that in the first five months of 2007, world usage of copper outpaced production by 300,000 tons.
  
  

• In China, the era when overseas executives could rely on translators is ending. The Chinese government now requires top executives at securities firms to pass written and oral exams in Mandarin, the national tongue, and Chinese managers expect meetings to be conducted in their own language.
  
  
  

• Pro Farmer, estimates 2007 U.S. corn production at 13.109 billion bushels with a yield of 153.47 bushels per acre. The firm pegged U.S. soybean production at 2.658 billion bushels with a per acre yield of 42.0 bushels.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims were down 2,000 last week to 322,000.
  

• Canada's wheat crop is estimated at 20.3 million tons, down 20% YoY.
  

• The Bank of Japan voted 8 to 1 to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 23 billion cubic feet to 2.926 trillion cubic feet.

Dollar May Fall to Record Within Six Months, Goldman Sachs Says
The Fed will lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point to 4.5 percent by year-end, according to Goldman Sachs.
The dollar will fall also because foreign investors will reduce purchases of higher-yielding corporate bonds, said Nordvig.

China fear over 'tainted' US soya
US soya bean exporters said China was trying to "balance things out".

Quick Overview

• The Bank of Japan at its regular 2-day policy meeting that begins today is unanimously expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged.
  

• Industrial new orders in the Euro zone rose 4.4% in June, stronger than expected.
  The USDA said there were 459.8 million pounds of frozen pork in storage, up 10% YoY.
  
  

• The USDA said there were 849 million pounds of frozen orange juice concentrate in storage, down 15% YoY.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil rose 1.9 million barrels to 337.1 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 5.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil supplies rose 600,000 barrels.
  Gasoline demand was up 0.6% YoY
  Distillate demand was up 2.1% YoY
  

Updates resume August 22

Chart of the Day

Fed Free Reserves

Look Out. This Crunch Is Serious
Incipient panic has reigned in U.S. financial markets over the past couple of weeks, and no wonder. Some hedge funds have blown up, the country's second-largest mortgage lender has come close to collapse and stocks have fallen. On Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank lowered a key interest rate to help calm things down.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Housing starts were down 6.1% from June's pace and down 20.9% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s retail sales rose 0.7% in July
  

• YoY Consumer prices in the Euro area 13 were up 1.8%
  

• The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 21 billion cubic feet last week to 2.903 trillion cubic feet.
  
  
  

• Gold demand in India rose 72 percent in the first half of the year to 528 tonnes, and China's consumption rose 11 percent so far in 07.
  
  

Quick Overview

• St. Louis Fed President William Poole said financial market disruptions had not yet hit the U.S. economy and the central bank should not act before its meeting on Sept. 18, Bloomberg television said.
  
  

• U.S. Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, and up 2.4% YoY.
  
  

• The U.S. Treasury Department said that foreign net capital inflow totaled $58.8 billion in June, down from $107.3 billion in May.
  

• The Federal Reserve said that U.S. industrial production rose 0.3% in July.
  

• The New York Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from 26.46 to 25.06.
  

• U.K.'s Unemployment rate improved from 5.6% to 5.4%.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 5.2 million barrels to 335.2 million barrels,
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.1 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 900,000 barrels.
  Gasoline demand rose 0.4% YoY
  Distillate demand rose 2.5% YoY.

Basis Capital Says Yield Fund Loss May Top 80%
The funds ran into trouble by investing in the unrated, riskiest portions of collateralized debt obligations and then leveraging the investment. The portions, also known by bankers as ``toxic waste,'' are first in line for any losses when borrowers fall short on mortgage payments.

Sentinel warns of losses if clients panic
"The (companies) who have money with Sentinel are members of the various exchanges. So the exchanges have an interest to make sure there is no spillover which will effect them," the official said. "They're not doing this purely for charity."

Sentinel Management Group Seeks to Halt Redemptions
Sentinel's clients include so-called futures commission merchants, businesses that manage buy and sell orders for commodities futures contracts. FCMs are required by the CFTC to keep their customers' money segregated from funds they invest on their own behalf. By that measure, Sentinel is 17th in terms of customer money for U.S. FCMs, according to July 31 data from the CFTC.

Flush with Profits from the Iraq War, Military Contractors See a World of Business Opportunities

Since the launch of the "global war on terror," the administration has systematically funneled billions of dollars in public money to corporations like Blackwater USA , DynCorp, Triple Canopy, Erinys and ArmorGroup. They have in turn used their lucrative government pay-outs to build up the infrastructure and reach of private armies so powerful that they rival or outgun some nation's militaries.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Producer prices rose 0.6% in July and up 4.0% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.1% in July and up 2.3% YoY.

• GDP in the Euro area 13 rose 0.3% QoQ, and up 2.5% YoY.
  

• U.K.'s Consumer prices rose 1.9% in July.
  

• Japan's tertiary index of services rose 0.1% in June.
  

• Retail sales in China rose 16.4% YoY
  

• Retail sales in New Zealand's fell 0.4% in June.
  

• The world will see a sugar surplus of 11 million metric tons in 2007-08, surpassing the large 2006-07 world surplus of 10 million tons, U.K.-based Czarnikow.
  
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in July.
  

• Japan GDP rose 0.1% QoQ
  

• Consumer prices in China rose 5.6% YoY, the most in 10 years. China's CPI is mainly being pushed higher by food costs.

Time to sell or what? Maybe check an 'insider' index
He has compiled this index back to the mid-1970s, and found it to have an impressive record in predicting the market's subsequent 12-month return.

Crunch time
The ECB’s move eased the cash crunch—at least temporarily. Overnight rates dropped back to the central bank’s target rate of 4%, and economists praised the speed and effectiveness of its intervention. However, the provision of liquidity is only a short-term measure to restore calm. Even cuts in interest rates, which financial markets are pricing in increasingly aggressively, would not necessarily address the underlying problem. Restoring faith in American mortgage markets, and the cornucopia of investments derived from them, is the bigger challenge.

China's agriculture minister says drought poses 'grave threat' to grain harvest
Drought has hit about 110 million hectares (270 million acres) of arable land, according to the Office of the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.
Sun said during a tour of Jiangxi province, where 866,000 hectares (2.1 million acres) of crops have been affected, that the conditions pose a "grave threat" to the autumn harvest, the China Daily reported.

Quick Overview

• The Federal Reserve joined the European and Asian Central Banks to add cash ($19 billion) to the banking system.
  
  

• YoY Japanese wholesale prices rose 2.1 percent in July -- for the 41st straight monthly increase.
  
  

• The idea that Beijing might use its $1.33 trillion currency reserves as a bargaining chip in trade talks with Washington is (also) unsettling markets.
  
  

• The area of floating ice in the Arctic has shrunk more than in any summer since satellite tracking began in 1979, experts said.
  
  
  

• Japanese corporate failures rose 15.6% in July.
  
  
  

• The USDA's 2007-2008 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn rose from 1.502 to 1.516 billion bushels.
  Soybeans fell from 245 to 220 million bushels.
  Wheat fell from 418 to 404 million bushels.
  Sugar rose from 1.377 to 1.388 million tons.
  Cotton fell from 5.90 to 5.80 million bales.
  
  

• The USDA's 2007-2008 world ending stocks estimate for:
  Corn fell from 108.4 to 102.2 million tons.
  Soybeans fell from 51.9 to 51.6 million tons.
  Wheat was fell 116.6 to 114.8 million tons.
  Cotton rose from 50.8 to 51.5 million tons.

Bernanke, Paulson Were Wrong: Subprime Contagion Is Spreading
``Housing created a lot of ancillary economic activity and jobs, and now we are in the reverse process,'' says Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago and a former Fed economist.

BOJ pumps 1 trillion yen into money markets in sync with ECB, Fed
The central banks of Japan, the United States and Europe took a coordinated action to provide liquidity for the first time since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States. The size of the BOJ's money injection was larger than usual, according to money market traders.

Quick Overview

• BNP Paribas (France's largest bank) froze investor redemptions from three funds. The news caused more fears about the continued run on funds tied to US subprime mortgages.
  
  

• The European Central Bank loaned 94.8 billion Euros to tone down a credit crunch.
  
  

• The U.S. Treasury said the current $8.965 trillion debt limit will be reached in October.
  
  

• Australia's unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.
  

• New Zealand's unemployment rate improved from 3.7% to 3.6%.
  

• The Bank of Korea raised its rate from 4.75% to 5.00%.
  
  

• The Florida Department of Citrus said inventories of frozen orange juice totaled 73.6 million gallons, down 15% YoY
  

• The International Sugar Organization expects a 2007-2008 world production surplus of 10 million tons.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said supplies of natural gas rose 42 billion cubic feet to 2.882 trillion cubic feet.
  

China's Trade Surplus Likely Jumped Almost 60 Percent in July
``As the U.S. election approaches, the trade relationship with China will get more attention and tensions become more vocal,'' said Adrian Foster, director of capital markets at Dresdner Bank AG in Beijing. ``The big trade surplus number and product-safety concerns are adding fuel to the fire.''

Quick Overview

• U.S. wholesale sales rose 0.6% in June
  

• U.S. Inventories rose 0.5%.
  

• The California Air Resources Board mandated that gasoline sold in the state include 10% ethanol by the end of 2009. California consumed 1 billion gallons of ethanol this year and the new rules will likely double that figure.
  

• Wheat rose to a record in Chicago, on speculation that demand for U.S. grain will climb because of unfavorable weather for crops in the U.S., Europe, Canada, Australia, Ukraine and Argentina.
  

• Dow-Jones News said this year's drought in China will mean "China is likely to import millions tons more of soybeans in the coming crop year than earlier expected."
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil fell 4.1 million barrels last week to 340.4 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline fell 1.7 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil rose 1.9 million barrels.
  Demand for gasoline was up 0.8% YoY
  Demand for distillate rose 4.2% YoY
  

China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales
The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.

US House Approves Renewable Energy Tax Incentives
The Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Tax Act of 2007 includes tax credits and bonds to promote investment in renewable energy production from wind, solar, geothermal, cellulosic ethanol and biofuels, and other critical energy conservation initiatives. The measure passed by a vote of 221-189.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Productivity rose 1.8%.
  

• U.S. Unit labor costs rose 2.1%.
  

• The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged and said that while tightening credit conditions had increased risks, inflation was still its main concern.
  

• YoY Retail sales in the U.K. were up 3.1%.
  

• The International Coffee Organization left its estimate of 2007-2008 world coffee production unchanged at 112.0 million bags. World consumption was raised from 119.5 million bags to 120 million bags.
  
• Australia's central bank announced Wednesday it is raising official interest rates by one-quarter percentage point to 6.5 percent — the first rate movement in nine months.
  

• Japan's bank lending rose 0.3% in July.
  

• Japan's July foreign reserves hit record high of $923 bil.
  

Quick Overview

• The U.K.'s manufacturing index increased from 103.1 to 103.3 in June.
  
  

• The USDA said:
  56% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent, down from 58%
  56% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent, down from 58%
  69% of the spring wheat crop is rated good to excellent, up from 68%.
  54% of the cotton crop is rated good to excellent -- unchanged.
  

U.S. Housing Is Among `Biggest Bubbles,' Rogers Says
``This is the only time in world history when people were able to buy houses with no money down and in fact, in some cases, the builders gave them money for a down payment,'' Rogers said. ``So this bubble is the worst we've had in housing and it's going to be the worst before its over cleaning it out.''