Quick Overview

• The Bureau of Economic Analysis changed its estimates of fourth quarter GDP growth sharply downward, to 2.2% compared with a previous estimate of 3.5%.
  

• New home sales fell by 16.6%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The monthly decline was the biggest, since a 23.8 percent drop-off in January 1994. The median sales price of a new U.S. home rose $400 to $239,800.
  

• The Chicago PMI fell to 47.9%, its lowest level since April 2003, suggesting contraction. MoM the prices paid component rose to 63.2 from 54.9.
  
  

• The unemployment rate in the Euro area improved from 7.5% to 7.4% in January.
  

• The inflation rate in the Euro area improved from 1.9% to 1.8% in January
  

• Industrial production in Japan was down 1.5% in January.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 1.4 million barrels to 329.0 million barrels.
  Supplies of unleaded gasoline were down 1.9 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were down 1.8 million barrels.
  YoY Gasoline demand over the past four weeks was up 3.6%
  

Quick Overview

• YoY Eurozone money supply grew at an annual rate of 9.8 percent in January.
  
  

• Shanghai’s composite index fell 9%.
  

• U.S. Durable goods orders were down 7.8% in January, weaker than expected. Excluding transport, orders were down 3.1% MoM.
  

• Consumer confidence rose from 110.2 to 112.5 in February, more than expected
  

• U.S. Existing home sales were at an annual rate of 6.46 million units in January, up 3% MoM, but down 4.3% YoY. There are 3.55 million homes for sale in the U.S. -- a 6.6 month supply.
  

US mortgage crisis goes into meltdown
Panic has begun to sweep the sub-prime mortgage sector in the United States after the bankruptcy of 22 lenders over the past two months, setting off mass liquidation of housing loans packaged as securities

Blow for beer as biofuels clean out barley
One consequence, he said, could be a long-term shift upwards in the price of beer. Barley and hops account for about 7-8 per cent of brewing costs.

Quick Overview

• Greenspan told a business conference in Hong Kong the U.S. economy may be about due for a recession.
  

• Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Shiozaki suggested the end of deflation is in sight.
  

• If the politicians in Washington do nothing, 23 million Americans will get hit by the alternative minimum tax next year, up from 4 million this year.
  
  

• Concern about subprime mortgage defaults continue.

Central Banks Diversify From Dollar, Survey Shows Central banks are still investing in riskier assets as they chase greater returns on yields. Sixty-nine percent said they were looking for more yield, having been forced to widen their asset range by a low-yielding environment.
More than half of the respondents said there is scope for central banks to diversify beyond traditional assets into equities, and around a third said banks should invest in commodities.

While you slumber, your brain puts the world in order Ever wondered why sleeping on a problem works? It seems that as well as strengthening our memories, sleep also helps us to extract themes and rules from the masses of information we soak up during the day.

Quick Overview

• U.S. jobless claims were down 27,000 to 332,000
  

• YoY German GDP was up 3.5% in the fourth quarter.
  

• The U.S. Energy Department (DOE) said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were up 3.7 million barrels to 327.6 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were down 3.1 million barrels
  Supplies of natural gas were down 223 billion cubic feet to 1.865 trillion cubic feet.
  Supplies of heating oil were down 4.1 million barrels.
  U.S. gasoline demand was up 3.8% from YoY
  U.S. distillate demand was up 9.8% YoY.
  

• The USDA said there were 46.4 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage, down 15% YoY. Frozen pork inventories totaled 486 million pounds, down 8% YoY.
  

• The USDA said that, there were 729 million pounds of frozen orange juice in cold storage, down 32% YoY.

Corn Surges to 10-Year High as Rains May Limit U.S. Planting
Corn rose to a 10-year high in Chicago, extending this year's 12 percent rally, as wet weather in the Midwest threatened to prevent U.S. farmers from planting enough grain to meet surging demand for ethanol.

Quick Overview

• U.S. Consumer prices were up 0.2% in January and up 2.1% YoY. Excluding food and energy, prices were up 0.3% in January and up 2.7% YoY.
  

• U.S. index of leading indicators were up 0.1% in January, less than expected,
  

• The Bank of Japan raised rates from 0.25% to 0.50% by a vote of 8 to 1.
  
  

Quick Overview

• Canada's CPI was up 0.1% in January and up 1.2% YoY,
  

• Canada's index of composite leading indicators was up 0.5% in January.
  

• Producer prices in Germany were up 3.2% YoY.
  

• The Florida Department of Citrus said there were 65.1 million gallons of frozen orange juice in storage on Feb. 10th, down 30% YoY.
  

• The USDA said that 2006 U.S. pork exports totaled 2.997 billion pounds, up 12% YoY.
  

• The USDA said that 2006 U.S. beef exports were up 65% YoY -- 46% below the 2003 record.
  

Anti-MRSA silver pyjamas trialled
Pyjamas and bed linen made with silver cloth are being trialled in a hospital to help combat the MRSA superbug.

Feeding your brain: new benefits found in chocolate
Funded by candy maker Mars Inc., which provided a specially formulated liquid cocoa concoction for the research, the studies suggest that flavanols increase blood flow to the brain and may hold promise for treating some vascular impairments.

Children's TV 'is linked to cancer, autism, dementia'
"It is the number of hours and the age at which they start which produces the biological effects. It is because of the medium, not the message, that these effects are occurring." - DR ARIC SIGMAN

Quick Overview

• The U.S. producer price index was down 0.6% in January. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up 0.2% in January.
  

• U.S. housing starts were down 14% from December's pace and the weakest in ten years.
  

• The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped from 96.9 to 93.3 in February, more than expected.
  

• World Weather Inc., a private weather firm, released a new outlook that indicated dry conditions may begin in the U.S. around July due to a shift from El Nino into La Nina conditions.
  

Quick Overview

• U.S. Industrial production fell 0.5% in December, the most in over a year.
  
  

• The price of goods imported to the United States fell 1.2% in January, the most in three months.
  
  

• First-time U.S. jobless jumped last week by 44,000, the biggest increase since September 2005, the Labor Department said Thursday
  

• International investors slowed their purchases of U.S. stocks and bonds in December. They purchased $63.0 billion U.S. securities while U.S. investors bought $47.4 billion of foreign securities. This is the lowest net funds inflow in five years.
  
  

• Retail sales in the U.K. were down 1.8% in January.
  
  

• The International Coffee Organization estimates 2007-2008 world coffee production unchanged at 110.5 million bags They estimate Consumption at 118 million bags, up from 116 million bags last year.
  
  

• The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 259 billion cubic feet to 2.088 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are down 8%.
  

• The World Gold Council estimates 2006 world gold mine production at 2,467 tons down 2% . They estimate 2006 demand at 3,362 million tons, down 10%.

Quick Overview

• Bernanke told the Senate the economy should grow modestly this year and he expects inflation will continue to ease.
  

• Gross domestic product in Japan expanded 4.8 % YoY, more than expected.

• MoM U.S. retail sales were unchanged in January -- up 2.3% YoY.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Supplies of crude oil were down 600,000 barrels at 323.9 million barrels.
  Supplies of gasoline were down 2.0 million barrels
  Supplies of heating oil were down 2.7 million barrels.
  Gasoline demand was up 3.6% YoY
  Distillates demand was up 7.0% YoY.
  

• The Chicago Mercantile Exchange is launching contracts that will allow insurers and others to hedge risk against hurricane damage.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record fifth straight year in 2006. The Department of Commerce announced today that December exports of $125.5 billion and imports of $186.7 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $61.2 billion, $3.1 billion more than the $58.1 billion in November.
  

• Japan's producer prices rose 2.2 percent YoY, less than predicted.
  

• The International Energy Agency forecasts oil demand up by 3.2 % this year mainly due to higher Chinese consumption.
  
  

• QoQ GDP in the Euro Area was up 0.9%. YoY GDP was up 2.7%.
  

• MoM Consumer prices in the U.K. were down 0.8% in January.
  

• Italy's GDP was up 2% in 2006.
  

Quick Overview

• The U.S. government posted a $38.24 billion budget surplus in January, up 82.4 % YoY.
  

• Australia reduced its inflation estimate for 2007 from 3.0% to 2.75%.
  

• Producer prices in the U.K. were up 0.3% in January, more than expected.
  

• Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister said that further production cuts by OPEC may not be necessary after the recent rise in prices.
  

• F.O.Licht estimates 2006-2007 world sugar production at a record 160.6 million tons, up 13 million YoY.
  
  

• The Florida Department of Citrus said there were 64.1 million gallons of frozen orange juice concentrate in inventory on February 4th, down 30% YoY.
  

• The number of U.S. homes entering foreclosure rose to 130,511 in January, up 25% YoY.

A General Theory of Stupidity
by Bill Bonner

Newton’s "Inverse Square Law" holds that gravity – and many other things – decreases by the square of the distance from the source. In a flash, we realized that this applied to useful investment intelligence too. The further you get from the facts, the less you know what is really going on.