Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. trade deficit rose to a record $68 billion in July on declining exports and soaring imports, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

  • The confidence of American consumers edged higher last week on falling gasoline prices, ABC News and The Washington Post said on Tuesday.

  • Industrial production in India increased 12.4% YoY

  • Consumer prices in the U.K. were up 2.5% in August.

  • Canada's exports totaled C$38.5 billion in July, up 2.1% MoM, imports gained 3.1% to C$34.6 billion.

  • YoY retail sales in China were up of 13.8% in August, more than expected.
    China's fixed-asset investment in August slowed to +21.5% YoY from +27.4% in July. In the year through August, fixed-asset investment rose +29.1% which was less than the consensus expectation of +30%.

  • The USDA's 2006-2007 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
    Corn was reduced from 1.232 to 1.220 billion bushels.
    Soybeans were increased from 450 to 530 million bushels.
    Wheat was reduced from 434 to 429 million bushels.
    Sugar was increased from 1.609 to 1.756 million tons.
    Cotton was reduced from 4.70 to 4.60 million bales.

  • The USDA's 2006-2007 world ending stocks estimate for:
    Corn was reduced from 93 to 92 million tons.
    Soybeans were increased from 50 to 52 million tons.
    Wheat was reduced from 128 to 126 million tons.
    Cotton was reduced from 48 to 47 million bales.

  • Canada’s canola stocks totaled 2.02 million tons, up 27% YoY.
    Canada's wheat stocks totaled 9.74 million tons, up 23% YoY.

Monday, September 11, 2006




How US merchants of fear sparked a $130bn bonanza
Five years after the World Trade Centre fell, a highly lucrative industry has been born in America - homeland security. There has been a goldrush as companies scoop up government contracts and peddle products that they say are designed to make America safe.

The figures are stunning. Seven years ago there were nine companies with federal homeland security contracts. By 2003 it was 3,512. Now there are 33,890. The money is huge. Since 2000, $130bn (£70bn) of contracts have been dished out. By 2015 annual federal spending on the industry could be $170bn.

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. economy is growing strongly despite a slowing housing sector, even though inflation remains above the central bank's comfort level, two top Federal Reserve officials said.

  • Japan's government changed its estimate of GDP growth for the April to June quarter from 0.8% to 1.0%.

  • Japan’s machinery orders were down 16.7% in July, the biggest drop in some 20 years.

  • (Bloomberg) -- Japan's producer prices rose at the fastest pace in 25 years, increasing pressure on profits as companies try to pass on rising oil and commodity costs.

  • Canada's housing starts were down 9.6% MoM and weaker than expected.

  • England: House prices have doubled in just four years with the average home in England now topping the 200,000 barrier. Annual house price growth is running at its fastest rate for 14 months.

  • Exxon Mobil Australia chief executive Mark Nolan said the theory that oil supplies had peaked and would dwindle over the next 20 years was of 'no value', having surfaced regularly since the 1920s during times of high oil prices.

  • Mexico's economic growth will slow to an "inadequate" rate of about 3.5 percent next year, the central bank said on Monday.

Sunday, September 10, 2006


Top soldier quits as blundering campaign turns into 'pointless' war
“All those people whose homes have been destroyed and sons killed are going to turn against the British,” he said. “It’s a pretty clear equation — if people are losing homes and poppy fields, they will go and fight. I certainly would.
“We’ve been grotesquely clumsy — we’ve said we’ll be different to the Americans who were bombing and strafing villages, then behaved exactly like them.”


Slipped His Moorings
by Charley Reese

Let's not play around. Am I saying the president is crazy? No, not in the clinical sense. But, if he believes that bin Laden, Hitler, Stalin and Lenin are comparable, if he truly believes he is leading the free world in the great ideological war of the 21st century, then he has cut his anchor chain and drifted off into the Sea of Delusion.

Saturday, September 09, 2006

Quick Overview

  • The global economy continues to grow briskly but the risks of an economic downturn have increased since April, the head of the International Monetary Fund Rodrigo Rato said on Friday.

  • The USDA said that U.S. 2005-2006 exports of:
    Corn finished the year up 20% YoY.
    Soybeans finished the year down 15% YoY.

  • Canada's unemployment rate increased from 6.4% to 6.5% in August,

  • The Conference Board's index of leading indicators for Japan showed a decline of 0.5% in July to 101.1. The Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25%.

  • SHANGHAI China on Friday launched its first financial derivatives exchange.

  • Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC producers signaled on Saturday they would keep output near a 25-year high for now, satisfied the policy is easing pressure on consumer economies.

  • Czech economic growth slowed to 6.2% in second quarter Gross Domestic Product grew by 6.1 in the second quarter of 2005 and by 6.1 percent during the year.

  • South Korea yesterday lifted its ban on US beef imposed in 2003 because of fears of mad cow disease.

Humans 'hardwired for religion'

"They have basically said there are two types of people in the world," he said - "those who believe in the supernatural and those who do not. But almost everyone entertains some form of irrational beliefs even if they are not religious.

Thursday, September 07, 2006

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 9,000 last week to 310,000

  • U.S. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in July, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

  • The National Association of Realtors said they expect U.S. existing home sales to be down 7.6% in 2006 and new home sales to be down 16.1%.

  • The unemployment rate in Australia increased from 4.8% to 4.9%

  • Industrial production in Germany was up 1.2% in July.

  • It could take several years for a key measure of inflation to ease from current high levels. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve must be biased toward more interest rate increases, the head of the San Francisco Fed said on Thursday.

  • Assets of the nation's retail money market mutual funds rose by $5.17 billion in the latest week to $922.87 billion, the Investment Company Institute said Thursday.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that :
    Supplies of crude oil were down 2.2 million barrels to 330.6 million barrels.
    Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 700,000 barrels.
    Supplies of heating oil supplies were up 400,000 barrels.


The Pro-War Media's Re-Positioning Problem
by Gary North
The cost of war rises. A fundamental law of economics then asserts itself: "When the cost of anything rises, less of it is demanded."
Simultaneously, the promised benefits of the war retreat into the distance. Another law of economics reasserts itself: "Future benefits are discounted compared to present benefits." There are no present benefits, except for the defense industry.
Costs today are rising relentlessly. Benefits are being pushed into the distant future relentlessly. We have passed the turning point. Estimating the cost-benefit ratio, voters have begun to cut and run.


War turns southern women away from GOP
A recent Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that three out of five Southern women surveyed said they planned to vote for a Democrat in the midterm elections.

Wheat imports seen as sign of reversal in India's food security
"In 1981, the growth rate of agricultural output was three-four percent. Today it is one percent. But the rate of population growth is almost two percent now..Even rats eat away a million tonnes a year..

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Quick Overview

  • Worker productivity rose at a revised 1.6% annual rate in the second quarter, up from an initially reported increase of 1.1%, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

  • The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. index of service activity increased from 54.7 to 57.0 in August.

  • Australia's GDP was up 0.3% in the second quarter and up 1.9% YoY.

  • Manufacturing in the U.K. increased 0.2% in July.

  • Germany's factory orders were up 1.8% in July.

  • The European Commission raised its economic growth and inflation forecasts for the Euro zone for this year, and said it may also revise up 2007 growth projections in November.


IMF warns of ‘severe global slowdown’
The IMF warns slower growth could be triggered by a sharp US housing market slowdown or by surging inflationary expectations that forced central banks to raise interest rates.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006


Pakistan signs peace deal with pro-Taliban militants
The Pakistani government and pro-Taliban militants announced that they signed a peace accord Tuesday aimed at ending five years of violent unrest in a tribal region bordering Afghanistan

IRS sends collection agencies calling for back taxes
Beginning this week, thousands of Americans who owe taxes to the federal government will start getting phone calls to pay up — from private collection agencies, not the IRS.
Despite congressional opposition and criticism from a federal employee union and a taxpayer advisory panel, the IRS is giving three collection agencies information on 12,500 taxpayers who owe less than $25,000 and have not disputed the debt.

Quick Overview

  • The confidence of American consumers strengthened in the latest week, possibly due to lower gasoline prices, ABC News and The Washington Post said on Tuesday.

  • Japan's Finance Ministry said that YoY private capital spending was up 16.6% in the second quarter.

  • The Euro zone purchasing managers service-sector index fell by -0.8 points to 57.1 from 57.9 in July, which was a 7-month low.

  • South Africa's Chamber of Mines said the country produced 68.7 tons of gold in the second quarter, down 6.4% YoY.

Sunday, September 03, 2006


Fears of 'extreme' TB strain
Among the areas found to have been affected by extreme drug-resistant TB are Latvia and South Africa. Scientists discovered the strain last month among HIV-infected patients in the Kwazulu-Natal region. 'Fifty two of the 53 infected people are already dead, and the last may well have died by now,' added Nunn.

Saturday, September 02, 2006


Nightmare Mortgages
Now the signs of excess are crystal clear. Up to 80% of all option ARM borrowers make only the minimum payment each month, according to Fitch Ratings. The rest of the money gets added to the balance of the mortgage, a situation known as negative amortization. And once balances grow to a certain amount, the loans automatically reset at far higher payments. Most of these borrowers aren't paying down their loans; they're underpaying them up.

Can't Rule Out China Hard Landing: Bernanke
"Although the banking sector is burdened with an enormous and probably growing stock of problematic loans, the government possesses sizable resources and is unlikely to allow the banking system to fail," Bernanke told the Alabama Republican. He also said Beijing's large foreign exchange reserves made a currency crisis unlikely.

Quick Overview

  • Bernanke said the boom in US productivity that began a decade ago is likely to continue.

  • The International Monetary Fund is set to increase its forecast for 2006 global economic growth to 5.1 percent from a previous estimate of 4.9 percent, according to Italian news agency ANSA.

  • The U.S. unemployment rate improved from 4.8% to 4.7% in August. Average hourly earnings were up 0.1% on the month.

  • The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment dropped from 84.7 to 82.0 in August.

  • The index of U.S. manufacturing dropped from 54.7 to 54.5 in August.

  • U.S. Construction spending was down 1.2% from June's pace.

  • GDP in the Euro zone was revised higher, increasing 0.9% in the quarter and 2.6% YoY.

  • The Euro zone unemployment rate was unchanged in July at 7.8%.

  • The International Sugar Organization estimated 2006-2007 world sugar production at a record high 154.7 million tons with 152.5 million tons of world consumption.