Thursday, September 07, 2006


Wheat imports seen as sign of reversal in India's food security
"In 1981, the growth rate of agricultural output was three-four percent. Today it is one percent. But the rate of population growth is almost two percent now..Even rats eat away a million tonnes a year..

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Quick Overview

  • Worker productivity rose at a revised 1.6% annual rate in the second quarter, up from an initially reported increase of 1.1%, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

  • The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. index of service activity increased from 54.7 to 57.0 in August.

  • Australia's GDP was up 0.3% in the second quarter and up 1.9% YoY.

  • Manufacturing in the U.K. increased 0.2% in July.

  • Germany's factory orders were up 1.8% in July.

  • The European Commission raised its economic growth and inflation forecasts for the Euro zone for this year, and said it may also revise up 2007 growth projections in November.


IMF warns of ‘severe global slowdown’
The IMF warns slower growth could be triggered by a sharp US housing market slowdown or by surging inflationary expectations that forced central banks to raise interest rates.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006


Pakistan signs peace deal with pro-Taliban militants
The Pakistani government and pro-Taliban militants announced that they signed a peace accord Tuesday aimed at ending five years of violent unrest in a tribal region bordering Afghanistan

IRS sends collection agencies calling for back taxes
Beginning this week, thousands of Americans who owe taxes to the federal government will start getting phone calls to pay up — from private collection agencies, not the IRS.
Despite congressional opposition and criticism from a federal employee union and a taxpayer advisory panel, the IRS is giving three collection agencies information on 12,500 taxpayers who owe less than $25,000 and have not disputed the debt.

Quick Overview

  • The confidence of American consumers strengthened in the latest week, possibly due to lower gasoline prices, ABC News and The Washington Post said on Tuesday.

  • Japan's Finance Ministry said that YoY private capital spending was up 16.6% in the second quarter.

  • The Euro zone purchasing managers service-sector index fell by -0.8 points to 57.1 from 57.9 in July, which was a 7-month low.

  • South Africa's Chamber of Mines said the country produced 68.7 tons of gold in the second quarter, down 6.4% YoY.

Sunday, September 03, 2006


Fears of 'extreme' TB strain
Among the areas found to have been affected by extreme drug-resistant TB are Latvia and South Africa. Scientists discovered the strain last month among HIV-infected patients in the Kwazulu-Natal region. 'Fifty two of the 53 infected people are already dead, and the last may well have died by now,' added Nunn.

Saturday, September 02, 2006


Nightmare Mortgages
Now the signs of excess are crystal clear. Up to 80% of all option ARM borrowers make only the minimum payment each month, according to Fitch Ratings. The rest of the money gets added to the balance of the mortgage, a situation known as negative amortization. And once balances grow to a certain amount, the loans automatically reset at far higher payments. Most of these borrowers aren't paying down their loans; they're underpaying them up.

Can't Rule Out China Hard Landing: Bernanke
"Although the banking sector is burdened with an enormous and probably growing stock of problematic loans, the government possesses sizable resources and is unlikely to allow the banking system to fail," Bernanke told the Alabama Republican. He also said Beijing's large foreign exchange reserves made a currency crisis unlikely.

Quick Overview

  • Bernanke said the boom in US productivity that began a decade ago is likely to continue.

  • The International Monetary Fund is set to increase its forecast for 2006 global economic growth to 5.1 percent from a previous estimate of 4.9 percent, according to Italian news agency ANSA.

  • The U.S. unemployment rate improved from 4.8% to 4.7% in August. Average hourly earnings were up 0.1% on the month.

  • The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment dropped from 84.7 to 82.0 in August.

  • The index of U.S. manufacturing dropped from 54.7 to 54.5 in August.

  • U.S. Construction spending was down 1.2% from June's pace.

  • GDP in the Euro zone was revised higher, increasing 0.9% in the quarter and 2.6% YoY.

  • The Euro zone unemployment rate was unchanged in July at 7.8%.

  • The International Sugar Organization estimated 2006-2007 world sugar production at a record high 154.7 million tons with 152.5 million tons of world consumption.

Thursday, August 31, 2006

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.1% in July, less than expected. YoY it is up 2.4%.

  • U.S. personal incomes rose 0.5% in July,

  • Consumer personal spending rose 0.8% in July, the largest gain since January, the Commerce Department said Tuesday

  • U.S. Factory orders fell in July, declining 0.6%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

  • U.S. Jobless claims fell 2,000 last week to 316,000.

  • The European Central Bank kept interest rate unchanged at 3.0%,

  • Germany's retail sales were down 1.5% in July.

  • The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 48 billion cubic feet to 2.905 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are up 11%

  • The Brazilian government increased its estimate of the sugarcane crop to 471 million tons.

  • Silver futures surged to their highest level in three months Thursday, as analysts cited good investment demand a day after the amount of metal held by an exchange-traded fund climbed above 100 million ounces.

Can you really not see?

Wednesday, August 30, 2006


Nations scour for wheat as drought shrivels supply
World wheat stocks are expected to decline to 117 million tonnes this year from 135 million a year ago, but some traders said stocks were enough to cap the price rally.
"Supplies will be a concern but will not be a huge problem this year," Moraza said. "But it can be a big issue if we see production shortfalls in subsequent years."

Quick Overview

  • The Department of Commerce said that real GDP increased 2.9% in the second quarter, up from the previous estimate of 2.5%. YoY real GDP is up 3.6%.

  • Mortgage application dropped from 561.5 to 556.5 last week, down 23% YoY.

  • China's economic growth for 2005 was revised from 9.9% to 10.2%.

  • Retail sales in Australia were up .6% in July. The September Australian dollar was down .06 at 76.30.

  • Japan's retail sales were down 1.7% in July.

  • MoM Japan's industrial production fell in July due partly to a slowdown in exports, pushing down the yen and bond yields.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that :
    Supplies of crude oil were up 2.4 million barrels to 332.8 million barrels
    Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 400,000 barrels
    Supplies of heating oil were up 2.3 million barrels.


The Five Morons Revisited

Now I get it. When Fox News’ Sean Hannity and Bill O’Reilley assured us that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction that would be used against us if we didn’t strike first, they were being manipulated by Osama bin Laden, who used America to get rid of the secular Saddam Hussein and to create a new training and recruitment ground for al Qaeda and fundamentalist fanatics.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006



It's Cheaper to Go DutchThe Dutch are, no argument, the world's experts. Which raises a question as U.S. politicians and bureaucrats dicker over whether and how to fortify New Orleans against future storms: why not hire the Dutch?

Quick Overview

  • U.S. Consumer confidence index dropped from 107.0 to 99.6 in August, the lowest in nine months.

  • The Federal Reserve is not "behind the curve" in battling inflation after its decision to not raise interest rates in August, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said.

  • The Renewable Fuels Association said the U.S. produced 318,000 barrels of ethanol a day in June, up 28% YoY.

  • Japan’s unemployment rate improved from 4.2% to 4.1% in July.

  • Germany's consumer confidence index rose to a 5-year high at 8.6 from 8.5

Monday, August 28, 2006


Selective Prosecution of War Crimes Saddam Hussein's attorneys do not deny that innocents were killed in the gassing of Kurdish villages in the 1988 "Anfal" campaign, but they argue that those deaths were not deliberate; rather, they were unintended consequences of Iraq's combat with Iranian and Kurdish belligerents during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Although this defense might not save Saddam at his war crimes trial, Israel's supporters make a similar argument in defending its invasion of and attacks on Lebanon that have left more than a thousand innocents dead, according to Ivan Eland, Senior Fellow and Director of the Independent Institute's Center on Peace and Liberty, writing in his latest op-ed.

Quick Overview

  • China will invest some $5 bln in energy projects in Venezuela by 2012.

  • The Indian government has allowed import of an additional 2 million tons of wheat at zero customs duty as part of measures to meet the shortfall in procurement. The Indian Government wants to boost stocks currently at some 8.2 million tonnes to 17.1 million tonnes.

    From Barron’s 8/21/06
  • 32.6% of new mortgages and home-equity loans in 2005 were interest only, up from 0.6% in 2000
  • 43% of first-time homebuyers in 2005 put no money down
  • 15.2% of 2005 buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth
  • 10% of all homeowners with mortgages have no equity in their homes$
  • 2.7 trillion dollars in loans will adjust to higher rates in 2006 and 2007

Sunday, August 27, 2006


Experts warn U.S. is coming apart at the seams
A pipeline shuts down in Alaska. Equipment failures disrupt air travel in Los Angeles. Electricity runs short at a spy agency in Maryland.

None of these recent events resulted from a natural disaster or terrorist attack, but they may as well have, some homeland security experts say. They worry that too little attention is paid to how fast the country's basic operating systems are deteriorating.