Thursday, May 11, 2006

A World Too Complex To Be Managed
If you look inside an elderly person’s medicine cabinet and see the many drugs that are used to suppress symptoms brought on by previous drugs, you will see a perfect parallel to the expansion of governmental “solutions” to politicogenic “problems.”
Rumsfeld on Daily Show
Nixon ... “He’s a ruthless ">little bastard. You can be sure of that.”
Anger toward US boosts Latin America's leftist leaders
House Panel Urges Reworking of Leases for Oil Drilling in U.S.-Owned Waters
NSA has massive database of Americans' phone calls
The Democrat, who at one point held up a copy of the newspaper, added: ''Shame on us for being so far behind and being so willing to rubber stamp anything this administration does. We ought to fold our tents.''

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

The FBI has a new way of tracking terrorists

Quick Overview

  • As expected the Fed raised the fed funds rate to 5 percent and suggested they may not be finished with the nearly two-year run of increases.

  • The U.S. Treasury Department ruled on Wednesday that China was not a currency manipulator but pledged to "actively and frankly" push Beijing toward faster exchange-rate flexibility that would let its yuan rise in value.

  • Japan's official reserve assets April, out at $860.2B vs. $852.0B expected.

  • Japans index of "leading" indicators was down 0.2% in March to 101.6.

  • The World Bank increased its growth estimate for China's economy this year from 9.2% to 9.5%.

  • There are rumors in the market that China could quadruple its gold reserves to around 2,500 tons from 600 tons currently.

  • There was talks in the market of Iran would raise EUR reserves.

  • Bloomberg news reported the main shaft at Barrick Gold's Deep South mine in South Africa was damaged and may take up to a year to repair. Last year, the mine produced 469,000 ounces of gold, but that may now be cut in half.

  • Grupo Mexico closed its San Martin copper mine due to an unresolved strike.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
    Supplies of crude oil supplies were up 300,000 barrels at 347.0 million barrels.
    Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 2.4 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil were up 400,000 barrels.

  • Canada's wheat stocks totaled 18.8 million tons on March 1st, up 22% from a year ago.

  • Canada’s canola stocks totaled 5.1 million tons, up 36% from a year ago.

  • Divisions emerged on Capitol Hill on Wednesday over whether the U.S. should suspend or lower fuel ethanol import tariffs in the face of high gasoline pump prices.

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Nybot to Revive Ethanol Futures as Biofuel Use Surges
The New York Board of Trade plans to revise its ethanol futures and options contracts soon to capitalize on growth in biofuel demand and output as fossil-fuel prices climb, exchange officers said this week.
Another Possible Bump to the Debt Ceiling
With passage of the budget, the House will have raised the federal borrowing limit by an additional $653 billion, to $9.62 trillion. It would be the fifth debt-ceiling increase in recent years, after boosts of $450 billion in 2002, a record $984 billion in 2003, $800 billion in 2004 and $653 billion in March. When Bush took office, the statutory borrowing limit stood at $5.95 trillion.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. consumer confidence dropped sharply to its lowest level of the year last week, weighed down by high gasoline prices and a weakening job market, ABC News and the Washington Post said on Tuesday.

  • The Bank of Japan is considering upgrading its assessment of the economy in its monthly report, saying for the first time in nearly 15 years the economy is "expanding", Jiji Press news agency reported.

  • Gold spiked up to a new 25-year high above $700 an ounce on Tuesday on dollar weakness, while platinum set a new record on strong industrial demand and fund buying.

  • Oklahoma Wheat Commission is estimating the state's winter wheat crop at 67 million bushels, down from 128 million bushels a year ago and the lowest in almost fifty years.
The Colbert video is publicly available through an agreement with Google Video.

Monday, May 08, 2006

Buffett and Silver
On commodities, Mr Buffett said he detected speculative participation in the recent run-up in prices, particularly metals. He added that Berkshire had not benefited from the sharp rise in silver prices, in spite of at one time owning a lot of the metal.

"I bought it very early, I sold it very early. Other than that, it was perfect," he joked.
Bush's Pick For CIA Spot Directed Illegal Spying Program
``If the Senate has a mind to assert its constitutional prerogatives here, then we could use this for leverage to find out,'' Specter said on ``Fox News Sunday.'' ``People do want to know what's going on to protect civil liberties.''

Quick Overview

  • Business confidence in Germany rose from 103.4 to 105.4 in March, the highest in 15 years.

  • Canada's housing starts were at an annual rate of 218,100 units in April, down 13% MoM

  • Retail sales in Australia rose 0.3% in March.

  • The European Commission increased its estimate of 2006 GDP growth from 1.9% to 2.1% for the Euro zone, but reduced its 2007 estimate from 2.1% to 1.8%.

  • Land prices in Japan rose in 2005 for the first time in 15 years, Bank of Japan calculations showed on Monday, underscoring the economy's steady recovery from more than a decade of stagnation.

  • Crude oil futures prices dropped below $70 a barrel Monday on rising U.S. gasoline supplies and a letter from Iran's leader to President Bush proposing "new solutions" to increasing tensions

Sunday, May 07, 2006

Real estate slows, commodities speculative: Buffett

"We've had a bubble to some degree," he said, noting that Berkshire has a good view of the market through the thousands of real estate agencies it owns. "We see a slowdown every place."
Dollar Falls to 7-Month Low Versus Yen on Outlook for Rate Halt
The Treasury objects to what it sees as an attempt by Japan to reinterpret the G-7 statement, said the officials, who asked not to be named. The statement called on China and other developing Asian nations to allow their currencies to rise to help reduce lopsided global trade flows.
Chart of the day
Average U.S. Real Estate Price

Friday, May 05, 2006

The fallout from a falling dollar

"We seem to have reached a crossroads," says Anthony Chan, chief economist at JPMorgan Private Client Services in Columbus, Ohio. With foreign interest rates on the rise, he says, it will become harder to finance the US current account deficit.

Quick Overview

  • The U.S. Labor Department said the unemployment rate remained at 4.7% in April. Nonfarm payrolls gained 138,000, less than expected.

  • Average U.S. hourly earnings rose 0.5% in April and up 3.8% YoY.

  • Canada's unemployment rate rose from 6.3% to 6.4% in April.

  • The Sao Paulo sugarcane industry association estimated Brazil's 2006-2007 center-south sugarcane crop at 375 million tons, up from a previous estimate of 363 million tons.

  • The Bush White House is urging Congress to remove the import tariff on ethanol. Farm-state lawmakers however say they're prepared to fight vigorously any attempt to remove the 54-cent tariff on imported ethanol even though demand for the additive is growing as refiners use more of it in gasoline.

  • The 2006 Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat Tour, estimated the state's crop at 319.2 million bushels, versus 380 million bushels last year.

Thursday, May 04, 2006

The truthiness hurts
Stephen Colbert's brilliant performance unplugged the Bush myth machine -- and left the clueless D.C. press corps gaping
U.S. sees IMF role in fixing imbalances

The United States on Thursday said the International Monetary Fund could help in rectifying massive global imbalances, including the U.S. current account and the budget deficits, that pose a risk for the international economy.
Bird flu plan lacks a key detail
The Bush administration's pandemic flu action plan, issued Wednesday, is a good step toward getting the nation ready for a 1918-style flu disaster, health experts say, but it's missing a key element: how to pay for it.

Quick Overview

  • U.S. jobless claims were up 5,000 last week to 322,000, more than expected.

  • The U.S. Labor Department said that nonfarm business productivity increased at an annual rate of 3.2%

  • Norway unemployment rate April, out at 2.8%

  • UK money supply March F, (YoY) out at 12.3% vs. 12.4% expected.

  • UK PMI services April, out at 59.7 vs. 57.6 expected.

  • UK official reserves for April, out at $936M vs. $239M expected.

  • EU Euro-Zone MoM retail sales for March out at -0.8% vs. 0.1% expected.

  • EU ECB leaves rate at 2.50% as expected.


  • The DoE said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 53 billion cubic feet last week to 1.904 trillion cubic feet.


Colbert Does the White House Correspondents' dinner:

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Republicans agreed to a $70 billion package of tax cuts
Mexico to Allow Use of Drugs

Quick Overview

  • The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. index of services increased from 60.5 to 63.0 in April, more than expected.

  • U.S. factory orders were up 4.2% in March, more than expected.

  • Australia increased its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percent to 5.75%, the highest in over five years.

  • The unemployment rate in the Euro zone improved from 8.2% to 8.1% in March

  • UBS said the uptake of Barclays' silver exchange traded fund is exceeding expectations and will likely reach and possibly exceed 100 million troy ounces within the first month.

  • The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
    Supplies of crude oil supplies were up 1.7 million barrels last week to 346.7 million barrels.
    Supplies of unleaded gasoline were up 2.1 million barrels
    Supplies of heating oil supplies were down 800,000 barrels.

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Quick Overview

  • The confidence of U.S. consumers fell to its lowest level this year, weighed down by the high cost of gasoline, ABC News and The Washington Post said in a report on Tuesday.

  • Senior White House economist Edward Lazear said that proposals to cut the gasoline tax would take energy policy in the wrong direction by encouraging consumption

  • European manufacturing increased from 56.1 to 56.7 in April, the highest in five years.

  • Manufacturing in the U.K. increased from 51.0 to 54.1 in April.

  • Brazilian sugar exports totaled 758,200 metric tons in April, down 29.8% from the roughly 1.08 million tons exported in the same month last year, according to preliminary figures issued by the Foreign Trade Secretariat Tuesday.

  • Shares in Archer Daniels Midland Co. surged to a new all-time high on the heels of a 29 percent increase in third-quarter earnings, driven by an increase in demand for processed oilseeds and corn byproducts such as ethanol.

  • Concern that mineral-rich Bolivia would extend a nationalization program from oil and gas to other natural resources, like silver, saw investors switching out of mining stocks and into the silver ETF shares."

Monday, May 01, 2006

Former bear turns bullish on global economy

But on Monday, in a note to clients, he said: “I must confess that I am now feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.” (sell everything ?)

Quick Overview

  • Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow on Monday said that core inflation is currently contained, but is at the high-end of his "comfort zone," and at the top of his list of worries about the economy.

  • Continued growth in the U.S. current account deficit cannot be sustained, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Jack Guynn said on Monday, adding that economic forces should help correct the imbalance over time.

  • Americans personal income increased at a seasonally adjusted monthly rate of 0.8%, after rising 0.3% in February, the Commerce Department said Monday. Spending climbed by 0.6%, more than expected, after a 0.2% increase the month before.

  • The core rate of personal consumption expenditures was up 0.3% in March and up 2.0% YoY, slightly more than expected. The measure is said to be a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve.

  • Construction spending jumped 0.9% in March, the Commerce Department reported Monday.

  • The Florida Citrus Processors said there were 88.7 million gallons of frozen orange juice concentrate in inventory in April, down 40% YoY.