Gold May Rise as Demand Outpaces Mining Output, Survey Shows
..A Beijing jeweler with annual revenue of $100 million reported gold sales jumped 15 percent this year, with some products up 30 percent, Lassonde said...

Spending up, income up, factories strong

Quick Overview

• The European Union's latest offer to cut farm import tariffs has failed to break a deadlock among members of the World Trade Organization, who are seeking to hammer out a global trade treaty by December, a senior trade official said Monday.
  

• U.S. personal income was up 1.7% in September after a 0.9% drop in August.
  

• US Consumer spending was up 0.5%.
  

• The National Association of Purchasing Management's Chicago index of business activity increased from 60.5 to 62.9 in October, stronger than expected.
  

• Canada's GDP was up 0.5% in August and up 2.7% YoY, stronger than expected.
  

• Japans unemployment rate was down 0.1% in September to 4.2%, the lowest level in seven years.
  

• YoY Japans consumer price index was down 0 .3% in September.
  

• Japan is expected to ease the ban on U.S. beef imports as early as the end of 2005, according to a media report Sunday. "Based on the assumption that all precautions are taken as requested, we consider the difference in risk between U.S. and Japanese beef to be small," said panel chairman Yasuhiro Yoshikawa.
  
  

• Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) bid $9.2 billion for rival Placer Dome Inc. (PDG), a deal that would create one of the world's biggest gold miners with annual output of 8.3 or 8.4 million ounces.
  
  

• The Panama Canal Authority’s largest customers are forecasting a 12% increase in traffic moving between Asia and the US east coast in 2006 as trade between the US and China shows no sign of slowing.

Bank of Japan Says Deflation to End This Fiscal Year; Policy Shift Looms
Japan will end more than seven years of deflation this fiscal year, the central bank said, increasing the prospects it will raise interest rates from almost zero.

Satellite data reveals Beijing as air pollution capital of world
Alarm about the perilous state of the environment has gathered pace in recent years. China is the world's second-largest producer of greenhouse gases, and the World Bank has warned it is home to 16 of the planet's 20 most air-polluted cities.

Olive oil 'cuts cancer risk'
Scientists at the University of Ulster found a mixture of compounds, called phenols, extracted from virgin olive oil could offer protection against colon cancer, the second highest cause of cancer fatalities in the US.

What's Off Virginia? 'There's No Guarantee'
Lurking off Virginia are tens of thousands of mustard gas shells and hundreds of tons of radioactive waste in at least five ocean dump zones created by the Army decades ago.

No irrational exuberance as Greenspan departs
But the flipside of the strong growth, which has sucked in imports and capital from around the world, is a giant current account deficit now heading for an unprecedented £800bn, or 6.5% of gross domestic product. Mr Greenspan stands accused of allowing the dotcom bubble to inflate so far in the late 1990s that it burst spectacularly, at which point he slashed interest rates and allow another bubble - in housing - to inflate.

The Indictment

Voluntary Green Power Purchasing up 1000 Percent in 5 Years
Green power currently accounts for about 2 percent of America’s electricity supply, but voluntary purchasing of renewable energy is accelerating development of new renewable energy sources. The report, from DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), "Green Power Marketing in the United States: A Status Report," shows that renewable generating capacity in the United States installed to meet voluntary green power purchasing soared from 167 MW in 2000 to more than 2,200 MW by the end of 2004.

OECD warns on deteriorating US deficits
It warned that the continued deterioration of the US current account deficit posed a risk to the US and to the global economy, at a time when the US deficit has risen above 6 per cent of gross domestic product and is forecast to rise to 7 per cent of GDP next year.

Quick Overview

• U.S. consumer sentiment fell in October to the lowest level in 13 years, the University of Michigan reported Friday in its monthly consumer sentiment index.
  
  
  
  
• The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.8% in the third quarter, an increase from the second quarter’s 3.3%, the Commerce Department said Friday.
  
  
  

• Surface trade amid the United States, Canada and Mexico rose 12.3% in August from a year earlier to a total of $60.2 billion, the highest monthly level ever recorded, the Department of Transportation reported Thursday.
  
  

• The core rate of U.S. personal consumption expenditures, increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in the third quarter, down from 1.7% in the second quarter and less than expected.
  

• Mexico's central bank pushed interest rates lower for a third straight month on Friday to help boost a struggling economy.
  

• Japan's household spending was down 0.2% in September and Industrial production was up 0.2% -- less than expected.
  

Barrick Gold profit triples
The company, Canada's biggest gold producer, said it remains on track to meet its full-year guidance. It is forecasting production of between 5.4 million and 5.5 million ounces of gold, at total cash costs of about $225 per ounce.

Bernanke Appointment Significant for Gold
Lassonde predicted that there will be a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which will motivate the Fed to become "commodative," which will be good for gold. Meanwhile, he noted, "China continues to defy expectation" in terms of demand.
Gold "supply continues to be challenged," Lassonde forecast as the production of Newmont and other international gold mining companies is down. As a result, he predicted the gold price will reach $525 an ounce before the beginning of next year.

Quick Overview

• The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down 2.1% in September, weaker than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were down 1.0% on the month.
  

• U.S. new home sales rose 2.1% in September (an annual rate of 1.222 million units) , turning around a decline the previous month, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. So far this year, new home sales are up 6.4% YoY.
  

• U.S. jobless claims were down 28,000 last week to 328,000.
  

• U.S. monthly retail sales of Class 8 trucks rose by 16.3% over last September’s level to 21,677 units, YoY the 23rd straight monthly increase.
  

• Exxon Mobil earned a record high $9.92 billion in the third quarter, this is up $5.68 billion YoY.
  

• Soaring oil prices and downstream divestments propelled Royal Dutch Shell’s earnings up 68% in the third quarter to $7.37bn, ahead of expectations.

• The U.S. Census Bureau said that 133.2 million bushels of soybeans were crushed in September, 2% more than last month. Soybean oil stocks totaled 1.69 billion pounds, down 2% from last month.
  

• French President Jacques Chirac threatened to derail international trade talks by ruling out further cuts in European Union farm subsidies and tariffs.
  

• U.S. cotton mill use dropped from an annual rate of 6.00 to 5.73 million bales in September.
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were up 77 billion cubic feet last week to 3.139 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are down 3% YoY.
  

• New Zealand increased its key interest rate from 6.75% to 7.00%.
  

• Brazil's central bank on Thursday said it saw a benign inflation scenario with only 'transitory' price pressures and raised market expectations it would continue its current pace of interest rate cuts.

Forget Oil -- India's Bigger Problem Is Water
India produces 15 percent of its food and meets 80 percent of its household needs by ``mining'' its fast-depleting groundwater. By 2025, three out of five aquifers in India will be in critical condition, the World Bank said in a recent study.

US nuke policy rethink prompts physicist protest
The underlying principle of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is that in exchange for other countries forgoing the development of nuclear weapons, the nuclear weapon states will pursue nuclear disarmament. Instead, this new U.S. policy conveys a clear message to the 182 non-nuclear weapon states that the United States is moving strongly away from disarmament, and is in fact prepared to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear adversaries.

Uranium price renews interest in Ariz. mines
After languishing at less than $10 per pound for almost 20 years, the price of uranium has jumped to $33 per pound and some predict it will reach $40.
The price is being boosted by a renewed interest in nuclear power, particularly in India and China, where more than a dozen new nuclear power plants are planned.

Quick Overview

• The amount of goods transported across U.S. borders in trade with North American Free Trade partners Canada and Mexico set a new record in 2004, exceeding a previous high set in 2000, the Department of Transportation said Tuesday.
  
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Crude oil supplies were up 4.4 million barrels to 316.4 million barrels.
• Unleaded gasoline supplies were up 200,000 barrels
  Heating oil supplies were down 900,000 barrels.
  

• YoY Consumer prices in Australia were up 3.0% in the third quarter. The core rate was up 2.0% YoY
  

• Japan's exports improved 8.8% in September to a new record high, while imports rose 17%.
  

Quick Overview

• UPS Inc. plans to stop shipping cigarettes to U.S. consumers on Nov. 21 after state attorneys general said the delivery may aid illegal sales, news services reported Tuesday.
  
  

• The Conference Board said the consumer confidence index dropped from 87.5 to 85.0 in October, more than expected.
  
  
  

• U.S. existing home sales were at an annual rate of 7.28 million units in September, unchanged from August's pace.
  
  

• YoY Consumer prices in Canada were up 3.4% in September, up from a 2.6% gain in August and the largest increase in over two years. Excluding energy, consumer prices were up 1.6% YoY.
  
  

• Business confidence in Germany increased from 96.0 to 98.7 in October, the highest in five years.
  
  

• YoY South Korea's GDP was up 4.4% in the third quarter, stronger than expected.
  
  

• The Bank of India increased its key interest rate from 5.00% to 5.25%, they expect the economy to grow 7.5% in the current fiscal year.
  

• YoY Mexico's economy grew by 4.5 percent in August.

We have added a new page covering International stock recommendations

Quick Overview

• Wall Street made strong gains today as Ben Bernanke was selected as new chairman of the US Federal Reserve. The market also rose because of solid earnings and a continuing softening in oil prices.
  
  
  

• Mexican consumer prices rose 0.19 percent in the first half of October, much less than expected, giving the central bank more room to cut interest rates when it meets at the end of this week.
  
  
  

• An influential economist and adviser to China's central bank said on Monday that an appreciation in the yuan was unavoidable and that he expected further changes in the country's currency policy.

Quick Overview

• Yield curve analysis shows the likelihood of a U.S. recession is greater than it was a year ago but remains low, a senior vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Friday.
  

• Technology shares rose on Friday, helped by better-than-expected earnings from Google Inc., while the blue-chip Dow fell, after Caterpillar Inc. cut its profit outlook.
  

• The USDA said that on September 30, there were 1.24 billion pounds of frozen orange juice in U.S. cold storage, down 24% from a year ago.
  

• The USDA said that on September 30th, there were 13.99 million pounds of frozen bellies in storage, up 23% YoY. Frozen pork totaled 427 million pounds, up 3% YoY.
  

• The Chocolate Manufacturers Association said that U.S. cocoa grindings totaled 104,470 tons in the third quarter, up slightly YoY.
  

• Mexican retail sales rose 5.6 percent in August, the government said on Friday, as consumers breathed some life into an otherwise tepid economy.
  

• GDP in the U.K. was up 0 .4% in the third quarter and up 1.6% YoY.
  

• Canada's retail sales were down 0.3% in August. YoY retail sales were up 7.3%.
  

• Japan's service industries picked up 1.7% in August, more than expected. Suggesting that consumer spending remained a strong driver of economic growth thanks to higher incomes and better employment conditions.
  

• Assets of the nation's retail money market mutual funds rose by $6.61 billion in the latest week to $828.28 billion, the Investment Company Institute said.

Quick Overview

• The index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell 0.7% in September for a third straight month on aftereffects of Hurricane Katrina and continued high fuel costs, the Conference Board reported Thursday.
  
  

• The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region increased from 2.2 to 17.3 in September, more than expected. Inflation watchers were worried about the prices paid index which advanced to its highest level in almost 25 years.
  
  

• The U.S. DoE said that underground natural gas supplies were up 75 billion cubic feet last week to 3.062 trillion cubic feet, assisted by mild temperatures across the U.S. Supplies are down 5% YoY.
  
  

• Retail sales in the U.K. were up 0.7% in September and also up 0.7% from a year ago, stronger than expected.

• Argentina's economy grew 8.9 percent in August compared with a year earlier, the Economy Ministry said on Thursday, pointing to a third straight year of vigorous growth after a deep recession.
  
  

• Google Inc. Posted a third-quarter profit seven times higher than a year ago, driven by the moneymaking competence of its Internet-leading search engine.

Waiting for the lights to go out
We've taken the past 200 years of prosperity for granted. Humanity's progress is stalling, we are facing a new era of decay, and nobody is clever enough to fix it. Is the future really that black, asks Bryan Appleyard

Bush tax commission prepares largest tax overhaul since 1986

China tightens stranglehold on Tibet's monasteries: report

Beijing began "patriotic education" in Tibet's monasteries and nunneries from 1996 in an effort to make Tibetans renounce their allegiance to the Dalai Lama, whom the Tibetans regard as a god.

Quick Overview

• Stocks soared Wednesday, after results from banking companies including Dow component JP Morgan Chase & Co. signaled a strong quarterly earnings period. The Dow-Jones industrials gained 128 points and the S&P 500 had its largest point gain in almost six months. A sharp drop in oil prices and a reassuring assessment of the economy helped investors overcome their disappointment over Intel Corp.'s earnings and troubling sales forecasts.
  

• U.S. Housing starts rose 3.4% in September, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.
  

• The U.S. Federal Reserve's Beige Book said that most districts were reporting their economic activity as being "moderate or gradual."
  

• The Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage loan application volume for the week ended Oct. 14 increased 6.1 percent to 737.5, reversing direction after falling for three successive weeks.
  
  

• The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
  Crude oil supplies were up 5.6 million barrels last week to 312.0 million barrels.
  Unleaded gasoline supplies were up 2.9 million barrels
  Heating oil supplies were down 600,000 barrels.
  

• Thailand's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, more than predicted.
  

• Wholesale sales in Canada were up 0.7% in August, excluding autos sales declined 0.6%.
  

• Japanese stocks fell for a sixth day as investors took a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the third-quarter earnings season.

• Orange juice jumps as Wilma appears to be on track for Florida.

U.S. Labor Is in Retreat as Global Forces Squeeze Pay and Benefits
Workers at auto parts maker Delphi Corp. will be asked this week to take a two-thirds pay cut. It's one of the most drastic wage concessions ever sought from unionized employees

Producer Prices Rise By Most in 15 Yrs