Wednesday, March 23, 2005

The ski trip was a big success except it resulted in a broken shoulder. So all you fans of InvestmentTools are asked to exercise patience. It won't be long before we will be fully operational again.

Wednesday, March 16, 2005

We're off skiing - back Monday Posted by Hello

Quick Overview

The dollar may get another short-lived respite but it is heading inexorably down. The question is how much it takes with it
So far, the foreigners—mainly Asians plus a few outliers, including Russia and Brazil—have obliged, permitting America to scoop up 75% of the world's surplus savings. Together, Asian central banks have accumulated about $2.5 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves, up almost a quarter in little more than a year, most of it in dollars; Japan and China alone have reserves of nearly $1.5 trillion between them.....There are repeated suggestions that regional payments systems should be set up, such as the gold dinar standard proposed for the Islamic world in 2002 by Malaysia’s prime minister.

The U.S. Department of Energy said that:
Crude supplies were up 2.6 million barrels last week to 305.2 million barrels.
Unleaded supplies were down 2.9 million barrels
Heating oil supplies were down 2.4 million barrels.

OPEC agreed to increase the official quota from 27.0 to 27.5 million barrels per day. Another 500,000 barrels of production may be authorized later - if OPEC's president sees the need for it.

General Motors expects to show a loss in the first quarter, hurt by weaker than expected sales in North America.

Canadian cattlemen have taken their complaints to NAFTA, hoping to get the U.S. to open its border.


U.S. Trade Deficit Hits All-Time High of $665.9 Billion in 2004, Commerce Dept. Reports
..private economists are worried that the huge level of resources being transferred into the hands of foreigners will eventually result in lower U.S. living standards.

China's slowdown continues to challenge normal definitions. Fixed asset investment surged 24.5 per cent in the first two months of the year - 8.5 percentage points higher than Beijing's 2005 target - while industrial production hit a nine month high. But Washington's hopes that Beijing will curb growth through currency appreciation, thereby reducing the US trade deficit, look more misplaced than ever.

U.S. industrial production was up 0.3% in February.

U.S. housing starts were at an annual rate of 2.195 million in February, up .5% from January's pace. 2005 housing starts are up 15% from a year ago.

Tuesday, March 15, 2005

Quick Overview

U.S. economic growth will slow and then likely stop by the end of President George W. Bush's second term in office as interest rate hikes hit hard, according to researchers at the .University of California Los Angeles



U.S. retail sales were up 0.5% in February. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.4%. January's sales were revised from a 0.3% loss to a 0.3% gain.

The U.S. Treasury's international capital flows data showed the United States attracted net capital inflows of $91.5 billion in January, from a revised $60.7 billion in December.


The Green Coffee Association said that U.S. coffee stocks were up 229,016 bags in February to 5.39 million bags. YoY this is down 7.5%.

Manufacturing shipments in Canada were up 3.0% in January to C$51.5 billion.

YoY China’s industrial production increased 17% in the first two months of 2005.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan told the Senate Special Committee on Aging that the federal budget deficit is a threat to the economy and that Social Security benefits will need to be cut to accommodate the growing numbers of retirees.


Monday, March 14, 2005

Quick Overview

BBC News reported that Vietnam is suffering its worst drought in 28 years and the coffee crop is being threatened.

Reuters is quoting Cuba's Sugar Minister as saying that the current drought that damaged last year's sugar crop is also ruining the upcoming crop.

Japan's GDP was revised upward from -0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2004, to +0.1%, stronger than expected. For all of 2004, GDP was up 2.7%.




Friday, March 11, 2005

Quick Overview


The Economic Cycle Research Institute
an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index rose to 135.2 in the week ended March 4 compared with 134.9 in the previous week.

Greenspan Says Worried on Budget
"Our fiscal prospects are, in my judgment, a significant obstacle to long-term stability because the budget deficit is not readily subject to correction by market forces that stabilize other imbalances," he said.

Trade Deficit at 2nd Highest Ever
The Commerce Department reported Friday that the January trade gap was 4.5 percent higher than December's $55.7 billion deficit and was just below the all-time high monthly deficit of $59.4 billion, recorded in November. (But it's not our fault. It's the fault of those foreigners that save.) US's Snow-Blame slow growth abroad for trade gap


Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association said that the Soybean crop is only 53.9 million tons. Southern Brazil is still dry with chances for light showers coming on Sunday.

Dow Jones Newswires reported that Colombia expects to have another 11.5 million (60-kg) bag coffee crop in 2005-2006.

ED&F Man has global sugar stocks falling by 5 million tons in 2004-2005. About the same as the USDA's estimate of a 4.8 million ton drop in ending stocks.



Fiber market set for real growth, says Corning scientist .. every sector of fiber telecom grew in 2004, including metro, premises, and submarine/long-haul. Although long-haul and ultra-long haul suffered three successive years of decline, that market grew 15 percent in 2004, albeit from a sharply-reduced base..."There is no first, second, or third world any more, because everyone is feeling the pressure of joining the fast world."

Canada's exports fell 1.6% in January to C$35.9 billion - imports increased 1.9% to C$31.9 billion. And Canada's unemployment rate in February was unchanged at 7.0% with a net gain of 27,000 new jobs.

The International Energy Agency increased their estimate of world oil demand to 84.3 million barrels per day in 2005. Less than the U.S. Department of Energy's 84.7 million barrel per day estimate.



Thursday, March 10, 2005

Moore says nanoelectronics face tough challenges

Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted it won't be easy to
replace silicon. "Any material made of atoms has a fundamental limit,"
Moore said. The solution? Make the chips bigger. Carbon nanotubes, he
added,...

Quick Overview

The amount of new debt taken on by Americans rose 8.6 percent, or $1.92 trillion, in 2004, the fastest growth since 1988, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday.

The U.S. federal government had a $113.94 billion deficit for the month of February.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday the U.S. current account gap was being fueled by factors outside the United States


YoY federal government spending for the month was up $26 billion

Inventories of U.S. wholesalers increased 1.1percent in January, led by stockpiling of farm products, groceries, clothing and cars, the Commerce Department said Thursday

U.S. jobless claims were up 17,000 last week to 327,000

China import growth falls amid cooling measures
China's annual import growth slowed to 8.3 percent in the first two months of 2005

The USDA 2004-2005 U.S. ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 2.010 to 2.055 billion bushels.
Soybeans were reduced from 440 to 410 million bushels.
Wheat was reduced from 558 to 553 million bushels.
Cotton was reduced from 7.30 to 7.10 million bushels.
Sugar was reduced from 1.548 to 1.473 million tons.

The USDA's 2004-2005 world ending stocks estimate for:
Corn was increased from 117 to 122 million tons.
Soybeans were reduced from 61 to 56 million tons.
Wheat was increased from 145 to 147 million tons.
Cotton was increased from 47 to 48 million tons.

The USDA's estimate of this spring's soybean crop in Brazil was reduced from 63.0 to 59.0 million tons (2.17 b.bu.), due to dry weather. The soybean estimate for Argentina remained the same, at 39.0 million tons (1.43 b.bu.)

The USDA's estimate of the 2004-2005 Florida orange crop was reduced from 162 to 153 million boxes. The estimated juice yield remains at 1.58 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix.

The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas fell 139 billion cubic feet last week to 1.474 trillion cubic feet. YoY supplies are up 29%.

Machinery orders in Japan were down 2.2% in January. Orders fell unexpectedly in January as demand for semiconductors and computers weakened.

Australia's unemployment rate in February remained at 5.1%, the lowest in 28 years.

Brazilian industrial output fell 0.5 percent in January from December.
The decline was expected after a strong 2004, when Brazil's economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade

New Zealands central bank increased its interest rate by a quarter-percent to 6.75%.

Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Why the Dollar is Falling

What about the deals that are being made between Latin American countries and China with the perspective of forming an economic symbiosis between China's need for food and oil, and this region's abundance of natural resources?..
..the fraternization between the leaders of France, Germany and Russia. This entente covers the Euro-Asian continent, the geo-strategic heart of the world. It represents an alliance that is ready and capable of challenging U.S. influence in almost any aspect. What do these constellations imply for the role of the U.S. dollar?
Jeremy Siegel's Latest Book Lays out the Future for Investors

Siegel found that historically the biggest factor in productivity growth has been advances in communication -- writing, the printing press, telegraph and telephone, and the Internet.

From 1925 through the end of 2003, tobacco company Philip Morris, now called Altria Group, delivered a 17% average annual return, assuming all dividends were reinvested in the company's shares.

A $4,000 investment in the top four would have grown to $6.29 million, versus $1.11 million for a similar investment in the stock market as a whole.

Today

S&P reports that :"DIVIDENDS SURGE" Last month's dividend increase total was the highest for a February since 1981. The full year could be the best since 1998.
The Federal reserves Beige Book shows increasing economic activity in all twelve U.S. districts.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said that its preliminary data shows 2004 world copper consumption exceeding production by 706,000 tons, up from 2003's production deficit of 386,000 tons. For all of 2004, world refined production was up 3.6% while consumption was up 5.5%. The biggest gains in demand came from the U.S., Japan, and China..

The DoE said that:
Crude supplies increased 3.2 million barrels last week to 302.6 million barrels.
Unleaded supplies were down 200,000 barrels
Heating oil supplies were down 800,000 barrels.
(The problem appears to be with the refineries not being able to keep up with demand, and not a shortage of crude).

Manufacturing in the U.K. increased 0.2% in January, stronger than expected.

Industrial production in Germany increased 3.1% in January, more than expected.

Japan's index of leading indicators increased from 41.7 to 55.0 in January, the first sign of expansion in five months.

There is renewed talk that the People's Bank of China has been considering pegging their currency to a wider basket of currencies - not just the dollar.


How Much Can Your Mind Keep Track Of?
People cannot process more than four variables at a time,
research shows... The number of individual variables we can mentally handle while trying to solve a problem (like baking a lemon meringue pie) is relatively small: Four variables are difficult; five are nearly impossible.

Researchers from Stanford University have constructed an extremely small transistor from a pair of single-walled carbon nanotubes and organic molecules.
The tiny transistor could eventually be used in ultra-low-power electronics. Transistors made from organic molecules are currently slower than today's transistors made from silicon, but are cheap and easy to work with.

Data Broker Says 32,000 Personal Records of U.S. Citizens Were Possibly Compromised
....The company played down the impact of the security breach on its profits, reaffirming its target of higher earnings and at least 5 percent growth in revenues excluding acquisitions. ...
Reed Elsevier specializes in the education, legal and science sectors, publishing more than 10,000 journals, books and compact discs, as well as almost 3,000 Web sites and portals. It also organizes 430 trade exhibitions.
(See above ”how much can you keep track of” -- But they surely have their priorities straight – EARNINGS are not impacted!!)

Plus Ça Change . . .
So, boys and girls, you see that there's no trouble at all to manufacturing a war in the modern United States. The same blueprint serves for all occasions; the U.S. regime need only employ the raw materials at hand; and the people fall for the same tricks every time – or, at least, by the time they wake up to what has been done, it's too late.

Curbing terror or menacing freedom?
However, harsh anti-terror laws are no guarantee that terrorism will stop. Worse still, they risk doing more harm than good.

(19 terrorists in 6 weeks have been able to command 300 million North Americans to do away with the entirety of their civil liberties that took 700 years to advance from the Magna Carta onward. The terrorists have already won the political and ideological war with one terrorist act. It is mindboggling that we are that weak as a society: Rocco Galati)

Tuesday, March 08, 2005

Today

U.S. consumers' confidence fell to a nine-month low in March

"What is most worrisome is that the economic outlook component sank below 50 this month. The last time it did that was back in March of 2003, on the eve of the Iraq war,"
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The national average price of on-highway diesel jumped 5.0 cents to $2.168 per gallon, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has reported.

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Canada's housing starts were at an annual rate of 214,900 in February, up 5.3% from January's pace.
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State Department Report Says China (China?) Still Committing Numerous Rights Abuses and many who openly expressed dissenting political views were harassed, detained or imprisoned, "particularly in a campaign late in the year against writers, religious activists, dissidents, and petitioners to the Central Government."


Commodity Prices Climb to 24-Year High on Global Demand Growth

Commodity prices surged to a 24-year high, led by gains in copper and crude oil, on concern that global economic growth is eroding inventories of raw materials faster than supplies can be replenished.
Laughing helps arteries and boosts blood flow

The results suggest that laughter could help keep the lining of the arteries - the endothelium - healthy and thus reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. "At the very least, laughter offsets the impact of mental stress, which is harmful to the endothelium,"
What Iraq's checkpoints are like

He turned to me, his face twisted with the anguish of making me understand: "But Mrs. Annia," he said, "if you go slow, they notice you!"

Monday, March 07, 2005

We have linked to Sentix sentiment data, you may want to check it out here.
House sales, prices keep up frantic pace

How much longer can this madness continue?
As Herbert Stein, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Richard Nixon was fond of saying, “Things that can’t go on forever, don’t.”
China Stock Market Misses Out on Boom

Millions of Chinese have learned hard lessons about the risks of playing the market. China's national stock index sank 15% last year, making it the worst performer of the world's major markets. The index is down more than 40% from its peak in 2001.

Today

Brazil's 2004-05 soybean crop (October-September) will total 57.0 million metric tons, the Agriculture Ministry said Monday. The latest forecast was down from on the 61.4 million tons predicted in December due to a prolonged drought in southern states

Building permits in Canada totaled C$4.5 billion in January, down 11% from December, but up 9% YoY.

Capital spending in Japan was up 3.5% in the fourth quarter, less than expected.

Pending home sales down 2.1% in Jan.
In a new indicator designed to provide faster and more accurate information on emerging trends in the housing market, the pending sales of previously owned homes fell in January, the National Association of Realtors said Monday

Sunday, March 06, 2005

OPEC Chief Concerned About Oil Prices

Seeking to cool market sentiment, the head of OPEC on Sunday said the organization is "concerned" about stubbornly high prices that defy what he described as a well-supplied market and adequate crude stocks worldwide.
The statement by Sheik Ahmad Fahad Al Ahmad Al Sabah, OPEC's president and secretary general, was issued as a clear attempt to dampen speculative buying that last weak briefly drove prices above $55 a barrel. Prices settled by week's end to above $53.