Monday, March 07, 2005

China Stock Market Misses Out on Boom

Millions of Chinese have learned hard lessons about the risks of playing the market. China's national stock index sank 15% last year, making it the worst performer of the world's major markets. The index is down more than 40% from its peak in 2001.

Today

Brazil's 2004-05 soybean crop (October-September) will total 57.0 million metric tons, the Agriculture Ministry said Monday. The latest forecast was down from on the 61.4 million tons predicted in December due to a prolonged drought in southern states

Building permits in Canada totaled C$4.5 billion in January, down 11% from December, but up 9% YoY.

Capital spending in Japan was up 3.5% in the fourth quarter, less than expected.

Pending home sales down 2.1% in Jan.
In a new indicator designed to provide faster and more accurate information on emerging trends in the housing market, the pending sales of previously owned homes fell in January, the National Association of Realtors said Monday

Sunday, March 06, 2005

OPEC Chief Concerned About Oil Prices

Seeking to cool market sentiment, the head of OPEC on Sunday said the organization is "concerned" about stubbornly high prices that defy what he described as a well-supplied market and adequate crude stocks worldwide.
The statement by Sheik Ahmad Fahad Al Ahmad Al Sabah, OPEC's president and secretary general, was issued as a clear attempt to dampen speculative buying that last weak briefly drove prices above $55 a barrel. Prices settled by week's end to above $53.
Australia's gold output falls to 9-year low

Australia's gold output sank to a nine-year low in 2004 following exceptionally wet weather in Western Australia early in the year and a large number of plant closures.
Gold production for the year was down to 261 tonnes, 6.5 per cent less than 2003, Melbourne consulting group Surbiton Associates said.

Saturday, March 05, 2005

Chart of The Week: As an old Conti colleague in the 70th would say "if it goes up any straighter it'll have to fall over backwards".
 Posted by Hello

Friday, March 04, 2005

Chinese chase Canadian oil

CHINA’S state oil companies are creating a political furore in the Canadian province of Alberta as they seek to buy their way into the Athabasca oil sands, the world’s largest petroleum resource.
The prospect of Chinese oil companies diverting the bitumen reserves to refineries in the People’s Republic is creating anxiety in Washington and concern in the Alberta government. The high price of crude oil has stimulated billions of dollars of new investment in Alberta’s tar sands which contain more than 1 trillion barrels of oil.
With the Dow Industrials, Transports, Utilities, S&P 500, 600, etc all in new high ground this bull may be appropriate.. Posted by Hello
EAST ASIA RISING

Without question, the re-awakening of China is the biggest economic event of our lifetimes. Chinese growth is draining resources and capital and affecting the economies of every region of the world. Our real competitive battle with China is not over jobs--it is over capital. And lets not overlook India.
China predicts 120 million Net users by year-end

China's Internet user base is expected to grow 28 percent this year to 120 million, according to the official Xinhua news agency, which cited an official with China's Ministry of Information Industry, or MII. The gains would represent an increase over 2004, when the number of Internet users grew 16 percent to 94 million.

Today

Orders placed with factories rose 0.2% in January, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
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The U.S. Treasury market would be able to adjust if foreign investors decided to diversify away from U.S. government debt, the president of a regional Federal Reserve Bank said on Friday. Adjust HOW? Perhaps the adjustment would lower the dollars value by 50%?

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U.S. employers created 262,000 jobs last month, the biggest gain in four months..
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U.S. wholesale prices for heavy motor trucks jumped 1.6% in January, marking their largest monthly increase in more than five years, as equipment makers continued to pass along higher costs for raw materials, including steel, aluminum, wood and rubber.
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The University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence dropped from 95.5 to 94.1 in February.
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Conditions in southern Brazil remain hot and dry. Dow Jones Newswires quoted Brazilian analysts as saying that the soybean crop would only total 53 million tons (1.95 b. bu) The USDA estimated 63 million ton (2.31 b. bu)
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The Florida Citrus Processors said that there were 141.9 million gallons of frozen orange juice concentrate in inventory on February 26th, down 7% from a year ago.
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House prices in the U.K. were down 0.5% in February.
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Manufacturing orders in Germany were down 3.4% in January.
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The unemployment rate in the Euro-zone remained at 8.8% in January.
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The EU-25 unemployment rate dropped from 8.9% to 8.8%.

Brazil Triumphs Over U.S. in WTO Subsidies Dispute

International development groups are calling on the United States to swiftly comply with a World Trade Organisation (WTO) final ruling issued Thursday declaring the bulk of U.S. government subsidies to its cotton industry illegal

Brazilian, 125, May Be the Oldest Woman

Maria Olivia da Silva, who recently celebrated her 125th birthday, "is definitely the oldest living woman in Brazil and possibly in the entire world,"

Maximum pain is aim of new US weapon

The US military is funding development of a weapon that delivers a bout of excruciating pain from up to 2 kilometres away. Intended for use against rioters,....

Thursday, March 03, 2005

Today

News that Russian President Vladimir Putin had signed a decree lifting the "state secret" status of platinum group metals sustained buying interest by keeping the metal on investor radar screens. Also take a look at palladium, the bigger mover today.

OPEC secretary-general said it's possible for oil to reach $80. Crude oil ended at another new contract high, with concerns that OPEC is effectively restraining supplies.

The ISM's index of U.S. services increased from 59.2 to 59.8 in February, a bit less than expected.

The Panama Canal is nearing full capacity and should seriously consider expansion to continue to be a major player in world trade, experts and users said.

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 in the latest week to 310,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average of new claims dropped by 1,500 to 307,000, the lowest since October 2000 The figures were in line with expectations

The Senate on Thursday approved legislation that would stop the USDA from
lifting its ban on Canadian cattle.

U.S. business productivity increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter. For all of 2004, productivity was up 4.0%, the smallest gain since 2001.

The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 107 billion cubic feet last week to 1.613 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are up 35% YoY and up 29% from the five-year average.

An index of services in the U.K. fell from 55.9 to 55.1 in February, weaker than expected.

An index of services in the Euro-zone dropped from 53.4 to 53.0 in February.

Retail sales in Australia were up 0.6% in January, the first gain in four months.

Wednesday, March 02, 2005

Turkish Delight

Here we see in dramatic fashion America’s loss of the "Global War on Terrorism" at the moral level. By invading and occupying Iraq, a country that posed no threat to us, and threatening to do the same to other countries around the world, we have made America into a monster – even in Turkey, the country that has been our closest Islamic ally since the onset of the Cold War. So dramatically has America managed to reverse its post-9/11 moral ascendancy that not only can Turks imagine us attacking Turkey, they see Russia coming to their rescue! Russia has been Turkey’s number one enemy for centuries.

No end in sight for Moore's Law

Moore's Law will boost chip abilities for many years to come,
Intel CEO Craig Barrett predicted on Tuesday. Barrett predicted that
traditional chipmaking technology will permit features as small as 5
nanometers--about the width of 50 hydrogen atoms--to be used on
processors. He mentioned three options for replacing conventional CMOS...
Next time you are too drunk to drive,
Walk to the nearest pizza shop
Place an order,
And when they go to deliver it,

Catch a ride home with them!

Today

The U.S. Department of Energy said that crude supplies were up 2.4 million barrels last week to 299.4 million barrels. . Crude stocks at the same time in 2004 were 275.7 million barrels.

Acting Secretary-General Adnan Shihab-Eldin has said OPEC saw a growing consensus that a $40-50 range was sustainable, backing up comments by Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi last week that prices could stay in that range this year.

India hikes rail freight to curb iron-ore exportsChina sourced more than 5 million tonnes of ore from India in January, a 46 percent increase on last year. India is China's second largest exporter of ore after Australia, according to official custom's figures

The DoE said that unleaded supplies were up 1.0 million barrels.

The DoE said that heating oil supplies fell 900,000 barrels. Supplies of distillates, which include heating oil, were lower by 1.8 million barrels.

U.S. refineries were not as active last week - the utilization rate dropping down to 89.3%.

Federal District Court Judge Richard Cebull, Wednesday granted a preliminary injunction against the U.S. Department of Agriculture's final rule that would have allowed the imports of Canadian live cattle younger than 30 months old as of Monday, March 7.

Greenspan told the House Budget Committee that the U.S. economy is growing at a moderate pace, however Congress needs to restrain the growth of federal spending. This provided a "pleasant diversion" for bullish-minded traders, said Jason Leander, a senior market strategist with Lind-Waldock. This happy event was however erased later in the day by a solid rise in crude-oil futures.

Layoffs at U.S. corporations jumped 17 percent in February to 108,387, boosted by increased merger and acquisition activity, international outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas reported Wednesday.

July soybeans were up 14.75 cents at $6.322, the highest close in six months, continuing to gain on South America's dry weather conditions. Private weather forecasters are pushing rain back in southern Brazil by 24 to 48 hours from prior forecasts.

In Sao Paulo, where 80% of Brazil's orange crop is grown, conditions are dry and in need of rain.

Retail sales in Germany were up 2.1% in January, stronger than expected. YoY retail sales were down 0.4%.

Australia's GDP was up 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2004 and up 1.5% YoY.

Tuesday, March 01, 2005

Real Estate

The latest U.S. Real Estate data from the Census Bureau appears to have a discrepancy of some magnitude. The January "Average" U.S. home price is up by about $1000, while the "Median" price is down by some $30,000, or 13%.

A typo? Don't know, but I'm sure glad I own an "average" house and not a "median" one!

Today

U.S. Construction spending was at a record high annual rate of $1.047 trillion in January, this puts it up 0.7% from Decembers pace and is stronger than expected.

The Institute for Supply Management said Tuesday that its factory index slowed to 55.3 in February, from 56.4 in January, still expanding however.

The consensus estimate among economists, surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and
CNBC, is for February non-farm payrolls to rise by 225,000.

Year over year the S&P 500 is up 4.63%, however the S&P 600 (Small Cap) is up 14.5% and in new high ground today - and that's impressive.


The national average retail price of diesel fuel rose a whopping 9.8 cents to $2.118 a gallon, the Department of Energy reported.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President said that he expects 3.75% growth this year and next with inflation under control.

Trouble continues in the Ivory Coast and Cocoa closed at its highest price in over three month.

Germanys unemployment rate is at 11.7%, the highest in seven years.


The unemployment rate in Japan remained at 4.5%, but the economy added 470,000 new jobs.
Japanese household spending increased 8.2% in January, the biggest gain in nine months.
Japans retail sales were up 2.2% in January, the best monthly gain in eight years.

Brazil's GDP increased 5.2% in 2004, the biggest gain since 1994.

U.S. life expectancy at 77.6, a record … Women now have a life expectancy of 80.1 years, 5.3 more than men.